This alley oop from Carlos Arroyo at mid-court to LeBron is pretty nasty!
Showing posts with label Miami Heat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miami Heat. Show all posts
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Monday, November 15, 2010
Miami Heat - Early Season Returns
After signing LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, the Miami Heat were expected by many to run roughshod over the rest of the NBA...to become barnstormers in the tradition of the Harlem Globetrotters. But the road to a season with 72+ wins has unexpectedly included huge potholes, and the Heat have not quite performed up to those lofty expections.
Miami is 6-4 and has already lost twice to Eastern Conference rival Boston. They've also lost to the still undefeated New Orleans Hornets in the Big Easy and at home to a hot Utah Jazz team. I don't think any of the four losses should be filed in the "Bad Loss" category. What do the early season statistics tell us about the Heat? Let's take a look.
I predicted the Heat would finish the season at 62-20.
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.2 (4th in the NBA) [106.6 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 101.0 (5th) [104.1 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.2 [2.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 102.7 (8th) [96.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 93.3 (5th) [94.2 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.4 (22nd) [89.6]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
LeBron James
Offensive Rating: 107 (121 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 99 (102)
PER: 23.6 (31.1)
Dwyane Wade
Offensive Rating: 110 (113)
Defensive Rating: 100 (103)
PER: 24.4 (28.0)
Chris Bosh
Offensive Rating: 118 (117)
Defensive Rating: 101 (111)
PER: 18.7 (25.0)
Udonis Haslem
Offensive Rating: 112 (111)
Defensive Rating: 99 (104)
PER: 13.6 (14.6)
James Jones
Offensive Rating: 144 (113)
Defensive Rating: 105 (108)
PER: 14.7 (8.8)
Carlos Arroyo
Offensive Rating: 109 (115)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 10.0 (12.3)
Eddie House
Offensive Rating: 106 (99)
Defensive Rating: 101 (109)
PER: 12.1 (10.5)
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Offensive Rating: 116 (102)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 15.1 (12.0)
Joel Anthony
Offensive Rating: 135 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (103)
PER: 8.3 (10.2)
From a statistical ranking standpoint the Heat look good with both their Offensive and Defensive Efficiency within the NBA's top five. A 10.2 rating differential is also excellent, and much improved, as you'd expect. Interestingly, they do play at a rather slow pace of 91.4 possessions per game, which ranks them 22nd in the NBA. You'd think that with LeBron and Wade they would play at a quicker pace.
The two most fascinating storylines around the Heat will be one, how the combination of the The Big Three affects the productivity of each individual superstar, and two, how much the supporting cast will contribute.
Starting with the first storyline, immediately you notice that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are all producing less in 2010 than they did last season. LeBron's PER has dropped by 7.5 points. His shooting percentage is down, his scoring is down, his rebounding is down and his turnovers are up. Bosh's PER is down 6.3 points. His scoring and rebounding have dropped nearly 50%. Wade's PER has fallen by the smallest amount among The Big Three, 3.6 points. His shooting percentage and rebounding are actually up but his assists and scoring are down.
Looking at the second storyline, you can see some of the challenges Miami has experienced so far. Only one of the six Heat players in the supporting cast who have played significant minutes has a PER above the average player. That one is Ilgauskas who is 0.1 above the average.
Jones has put in some good minutes and has raised his PER by nearly six points over last season. His Offensive Rating is an extremely impressive 144.
Haslem is being counted on to be one of the closers on the front line but his production has not been good and is down from 2009/10. The same can be said of starting "point guard" Arroyo.
The Heat are said to be reconsidering Erick Dampier. Look no further than the play of Anthony for the reason. His 8.3 PER is miserable.
Miami will be happy to get Mike Miller back from injury, but even taking that into consideration, it looks like they may need to make another move, to secure a strong defensive low post player, if they want to claim the NBA Finals.
What are your thoughts on the first 10 games of the Heat season? What do you think they need to do to become the Superteam they are supposed to be? Let me know by posting a comment below.
Miami is 6-4 and has already lost twice to Eastern Conference rival Boston. They've also lost to the still undefeated New Orleans Hornets in the Big Easy and at home to a hot Utah Jazz team. I don't think any of the four losses should be filed in the "Bad Loss" category. What do the early season statistics tell us about the Heat? Let's take a look.
I predicted the Heat would finish the season at 62-20.
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.2 (4th in the NBA) [106.6 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 101.0 (5th) [104.1 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.2 [2.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 102.7 (8th) [96.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 93.3 (5th) [94.2 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.4 (22nd) [89.6]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
LeBron James
Offensive Rating: 107 (121 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 99 (102)
PER: 23.6 (31.1)
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| Photo source: rubendn |
Offensive Rating: 110 (113)
Defensive Rating: 100 (103)
PER: 24.4 (28.0)
Chris Bosh
Offensive Rating: 118 (117)
Defensive Rating: 101 (111)
PER: 18.7 (25.0)
Udonis Haslem
Offensive Rating: 112 (111)
Defensive Rating: 99 (104)
PER: 13.6 (14.6)
James Jones
Offensive Rating: 144 (113)
Defensive Rating: 105 (108)
PER: 14.7 (8.8)
Carlos Arroyo
Offensive Rating: 109 (115)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 10.0 (12.3)
Eddie House
Offensive Rating: 106 (99)
Defensive Rating: 101 (109)
PER: 12.1 (10.5)
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Offensive Rating: 116 (102)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 15.1 (12.0)
Joel Anthony
Offensive Rating: 135 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (103)
PER: 8.3 (10.2)
From a statistical ranking standpoint the Heat look good with both their Offensive and Defensive Efficiency within the NBA's top five. A 10.2 rating differential is also excellent, and much improved, as you'd expect. Interestingly, they do play at a rather slow pace of 91.4 possessions per game, which ranks them 22nd in the NBA. You'd think that with LeBron and Wade they would play at a quicker pace.
The two most fascinating storylines around the Heat will be one, how the combination of the The Big Three affects the productivity of each individual superstar, and two, how much the supporting cast will contribute.
Starting with the first storyline, immediately you notice that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are all producing less in 2010 than they did last season. LeBron's PER has dropped by 7.5 points. His shooting percentage is down, his scoring is down, his rebounding is down and his turnovers are up. Bosh's PER is down 6.3 points. His scoring and rebounding have dropped nearly 50%. Wade's PER has fallen by the smallest amount among The Big Three, 3.6 points. His shooting percentage and rebounding are actually up but his assists and scoring are down.
Looking at the second storyline, you can see some of the challenges Miami has experienced so far. Only one of the six Heat players in the supporting cast who have played significant minutes has a PER above the average player. That one is Ilgauskas who is 0.1 above the average.
Jones has put in some good minutes and has raised his PER by nearly six points over last season. His Offensive Rating is an extremely impressive 144.
Haslem is being counted on to be one of the closers on the front line but his production has not been good and is down from 2009/10. The same can be said of starting "point guard" Arroyo.
The Heat are said to be reconsidering Erick Dampier. Look no further than the play of Anthony for the reason. His 8.3 PER is miserable.
Miami will be happy to get Mike Miller back from injury, but even taking that into consideration, it looks like they may need to make another move, to secure a strong defensive low post player, if they want to claim the NBA Finals.
What are your thoughts on the first 10 games of the Heat season? What do you think they need to do to become the Superteam they are supposed to be? Let me know by posting a comment below.
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Miami Heat - Better or Worse
I think the answer to that question is clear. The Heat made the big splash over the summer, persuading LeBron to "take [his] talents to South Beach," along with Chris Bosh. Dwayne Wade returned to form the Miami Three or Evil Empire or some other clever nickname. There is much debate about whether the "Super Team" concept is good for the NBA. I fall strongly on the positive side of that debate.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Back to our main premise - the Heat are better, but by how much?
Point Guard
2009 - Carlos Arroyo (#32 PG, Level 6), Mario Chalmers (#48 PG, Level 9)
2009 - Mario Chalmers (#48 PG, Level 9), Carlos Arroyo (#32 PG, Level 6)
Rafer Alston was also a contributor to the Heat at point guard last year. After a solid rookie season Chalmers was a disappointment last season. He'll have two options - step up his game or sit on the bench. It's very likely that LeBron will play point forward, especially in the clutch
Shooting Guard
2009 - Dwayne Wade (#2 SG, Level 1), Daequan Cook (#69 SG, below level)
2010 - Dwayne Wade (#2 SG, Level 1), Mike Miller (#23 SG, Level 5)
You can't get much better than Wade, who finished just behind Manu Ginobili in the shooting guard rankings. Miller could be considered for shooting guard or small forward. I put him in as a guard because he played that role predominantly last season. This year he'll be more like the backup wing.
Small Forward
2009 - Quentin Richardson (#18 SG, Level 4), Dorell Wright (#10 SF, Level 4)
2010 - LeBron James (#1 SF, Level 1)
The Heat actually got some pretty good production from the small forward position in 2009-2010. Of course, LeBron takes that to a whole new level. The win difference here is hard to predict because he is so far and away better than every other small forward.
Power Forward
2009 - Michael Beasley (#38 PF, Level 6), Udonis Haslem (#30 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Chris Bosh (#8 PF, Level 3), Udonis Haslem (#30 PF, Level 6)
Bosh led all NBA power forwards in PER but his cumulative ranking was dragged down by his Defensive Rating. That rating can be greatly influenced by the team. If Haslem can put the spliffs down for long enough he'll be an excellent backup.
Center
2009 - Jermaine O'Neal (#15 C, Level 4), Joel Anthony (#36 C, Level 8)
2010 - Zydrunas Ilgauskas (#46 C, Level 8), Joel Anthony (#36 C, Level 8)
It will be interesting to see what the Heat do at the center position. They have a number of players (Ilgauskas, Anthony, Juwan Howard and Jamaal Magloire) who can play the position for short periods of time. It's certainly possible that Bosh and Haslem get some playing time at the five as well.
Overall
Last year the Heat finished 47-35 and had the five seed in the Eastern Conference. While their record was good, it was clear in the playoffs that Wade needed a lot more help. He definitely has help now. Based on their projected lineup for the 2010-2011 season I've got them adding one win at point guard (with LeBron and Chalmers' improvement), three wins at shooting guard, nine wins at small forward and four wins at power forward, while losing two wins at center.
In the final verdict the Heat are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 62-20. Man, that seems low, but that's what I've got.
What do you think? Is my prediction too low or realistic? Let me know in the comments section below.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
 |
| Miami Beach Photo: humbertomoreno |
Point Guard
2009 - Carlos Arroyo (#32 PG, Level 6), Mario Chalmers (#48 PG, Level 9)
2009 - Mario Chalmers (#48 PG, Level 9), Carlos Arroyo (#32 PG, Level 6)
Rafer Alston was also a contributor to the Heat at point guard last year. After a solid rookie season Chalmers was a disappointment last season. He'll have two options - step up his game or sit on the bench. It's very likely that LeBron will play point forward, especially in the clutch
Shooting Guard
2009 - Dwayne Wade (#2 SG, Level 1), Daequan Cook (#69 SG, below level)
2010 - Dwayne Wade (#2 SG, Level 1), Mike Miller (#23 SG, Level 5)
You can't get much better than Wade, who finished just behind Manu Ginobili in the shooting guard rankings. Miller could be considered for shooting guard or small forward. I put him in as a guard because he played that role predominantly last season. This year he'll be more like the backup wing.
Small Forward
2009 - Quentin Richardson (#18 SG, Level 4), Dorell Wright (#10 SF, Level 4)
2010 - LeBron James (#1 SF, Level 1)
The Heat actually got some pretty good production from the small forward position in 2009-2010. Of course, LeBron takes that to a whole new level. The win difference here is hard to predict because he is so far and away better than every other small forward.
Power Forward
2009 - Michael Beasley (#38 PF, Level 6), Udonis Haslem (#30 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Chris Bosh (#8 PF, Level 3), Udonis Haslem (#30 PF, Level 6)
Bosh led all NBA power forwards in PER but his cumulative ranking was dragged down by his Defensive Rating. That rating can be greatly influenced by the team. If Haslem can put the spliffs down for long enough he'll be an excellent backup.
Center
2009 - Jermaine O'Neal (#15 C, Level 4), Joel Anthony (#36 C, Level 8)
2010 - Zydrunas Ilgauskas (#46 C, Level 8), Joel Anthony (#36 C, Level 8)
It will be interesting to see what the Heat do at the center position. They have a number of players (Ilgauskas, Anthony, Juwan Howard and Jamaal Magloire) who can play the position for short periods of time. It's certainly possible that Bosh and Haslem get some playing time at the five as well.
Overall
Last year the Heat finished 47-35 and had the five seed in the Eastern Conference. While their record was good, it was clear in the playoffs that Wade needed a lot more help. He definitely has help now. Based on their projected lineup for the 2010-2011 season I've got them adding one win at point guard (with LeBron and Chalmers' improvement), three wins at shooting guard, nine wins at small forward and four wins at power forward, while losing two wins at center.
In the final verdict the Heat are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 62-20. Man, that seems low, but that's what I've got.
What do you think? Is my prediction too low or realistic? Let me know in the comments section below.
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