Showing posts with label dwayne wade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dwayne wade. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

NBA Eastern Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

With NBA All Star weekend coming up I want to take a look at the players that I think should be on the Eastern Conference roster.  I'm basing this roster on my mid-season player rankings.  You can find the formula for the ranking system on the 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.


Photo source: David Jones

Here are the five players that I think earned a starting spot:
G: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
F: Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
C: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

My starting lineup only has one different player from the starters the fans chose.  I have Paul Pierce starting at the forward spot over Amare Stoudamire.

Here are the seven additional Eastern Conference players that I think are worthy of being All Stars:
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
G: Ray Allen, Boston Celtics
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
F: Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
C: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
F: Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls

As you can see, I don't even have Stoudamire on the Eastern Conference All Star roster.  A peek at my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings shows you why - Stoudamire is the 14th most productive power forward in the NBA through the first half of the season.  Boozer has been the 10th most productive power forward.

The other roster difference is that I have Noah in place of Joe Johnson.  Johnson finished a very respectable seventh in my mid-season shooting guard rankings but Andre Iguodala, who finished fifth on those same rankings, would have been the next guard in line.  When matched up head-to-head in the five statistical analysis categories I like to use, Noah wins three (PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating) to Johnson's two (Estimated Wins Added and Simple Rating).

Overall, Sunday night's Eastern Conference roster is pretty close to the group I think should be playing.  Ultimately, I don't have an issue with Stoudamire making the team based on his full season contribution to the Knicks versus Boozer and Noah, who both missed significant time.  I do think that one of those Bulls frontliners should have made the team over Johnson.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Shooting Guard Rankings

I recently posted my mid-season NBA shooting guard rankings.  Here are my observations on those rankings:

    Photo source: Tiago Hammil
  • Manu Ginobili and Dwyane Wade tied for the top spot.  That's no surprise - they were one and two in the 2009-10 Final Shooting Guard Rankings.  Wade is first in the PER and Estimated Wins Added categories while Ginobili leads the Simple Rating category.
  • Ray Allen and Kobe Bryant are on the second level.  Allen moved up three spots from the 09-10 rankings while Bryant dropped one.
  • Interestingly, Eric Gordon and Kevin Martin are both really hurt by their Defensive Rating.  Gordon tied for 51st and Martin tied for 60th. 
  • Jason Richardson and Vince Carter, who were essentially swapped for each other by the Magic and Suns, come in 11th and 12th.
  • The biggest positive surprises to me are Andre Iguodala, Landry Fields, J.R. Smith and Ronnie Brewer.
  • The biggest negative surprises to me are Jason Terry, Stephen Jackson, O.J. Mayo and John Salmons. 
  • The biggest jumpers from the final 09-10 rankings are DeShawn Stevenson (up 52), Nick Young (up 43) and Tracy McGrady (up 28).  Those are three very different cases.
  • Stevenson boosted his PER from 3.3 last season to a career best 13.3 this season and his Simple Rating from -10 to 3.3. 
  • The biggest droppers from 2009-10 are John Salmons (down 37), Quentin Richardson (down 31) and Randy Foye (down 26).
  • Salmons really surprises me.  I expected him to be excellent for the Bucks this season after serving as such a uniter when he came over from Chicago during the middle of last season.  The most noticeable difference - his Simple Rating crashed from 7.9 in 09-10 to -4.2 this season.
  • Fields is the highest ranking rookie at number 10.  Evan Turner is next at 59.
  • The two teams getting the least production from the shooting guard position are Utah and Cleveland.  The Jazz have Raja Bell at 60.  The Cavaliers have Anthony Parker at 61, Alonzo Gee at 62, Manny Harris at 66 and Joey Graham at 68.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Shooting Guard Rankings

There's a tie atop the mid-season rankings of NBA shooting guards. Dwyane Wade and Manu Ginobili have outproduced all of the competition at their position.  That is no change from the 2009-10 NBA Shooting Guard Rankings - they were in the top two spots there as well.

To see additional details on my ranking process check out my 2010-11 Mid-Season Small Forward Rankings.  For your viewing pleasure, or displeasure, here are the mid-season shooting guard rankings:


.
PLAYERPERRankEWARankSimpleRankO. RatRankD. RatRankTotalsFinal
.
Dwyane Wade, MIA25.51111.2111.62113111013181
.
Manu Ginobili, SA22.5848.3312.6111751025181
.
Ray Allen, BOS17.8185.676.96119310411353
.
Kobe Bryant, LAL24.73210.628.931121310618384
.
Andre Iguodala, PHI17.293.9105.181092010411585
.
Eric Gordon, LAC21.1858.248.24117511251696
.
Joe Johnson, ATL18.3375.187.951082610830767
.
Kevin Martin, HOU22.7738.246.67120211360767
.
Jamal Crawford, ATL16.77113.6113.8131092010830859
.
Landry Fields, NY14.14232.3194.891167108308810
.
Jason Richardson, ORL17104.691.12411311109379111
.
Vince Carter, PHX15.65162.81541210730107239612
.
J.R. Smith, DEN15.83132.6162.816106321072310013
.
James Harden, OKC14.82212.22002711591083010714
.
Ronnie Brewer, CHI13.42311.5281.8221082698110815
.
Monta Ellis, GS19.7668.162.220108261125110916
.
Wesley Matthews, POR15.77143.611-135112131093711017
.
J.J. Redick, ORL13.52291.528-0.93411931061811218
.
Rudy Fernandez, POR14.48221.8241.623109201072311218
.
Nick Young, WSH15.76153.2134.510111161136011420
.
DeShawn Stevenson, DAL13.28321353.31411671083011821
.
Brandon Roy, POR14.97171.8244.510107301093711821
.
Kyle Korver, CHI12.583813512511116102511923
.
Francisco Garcia, SAC14.01261.43102711591083012324
.
Arron Afflalo, DEN14.02242.616-1.33612411125112825
.
Jason Terry, DAL14.95193.114027101471072313026
.
Leandro Barbosa, TOR16.53122.5182.417108261136013327
.
Tracy McGrady, DET13.89271.6262.318103401093714828
.
Tony Allen, MEM14.96181.232-242966099215429
.
Marquis Daniels, BOS12.03410.738-1.43710437101315630
.
Marcus Thornton, NO14.02240.837-1.5389758102516231
.
Keyon Dooling, MIL11.43470.3452.318104371061816532
.
Kirk Hinrich, WSH13.47301.626-3.447109201114717033
.
Stephen Jackson, CHA13.56282.220-1.84096601072317134
.
Thabo Sefolosha, OKC10.554053-0.732111161061817335
.
Ben Gordon, DET12.94351.528315102461125117536
.
Toney Douglas, NY13.05341.133-1.941104371093718237
.
Marco Belinelli, NO11.31480.542-2.144105351061818738
.
Jodie Meeks, PHI11.21490.251125111161104618738
.
Anthony Morrow, NJ11.19500.345-0.130112131125118940
.
Richard Hamilton, DET14.95191.923-3.447103401136018940
.
Luther Head, SAC11.91420.345-1.639109201125119742
.
O.J. Mayo, MEM12.24401.133-3.951101471083020143
.
Jeff Teague, ATL12.9360.542-6.7639854103820344
.
John Salmons, MIL11.55450.738-4.25398541051420445
.
Courtney Lee, HOU11.69440.542-0.431103401114720445
.
Von Wafer, BOS10.5653053-3.549103401041120647
.
Corey Brewer, MIN11.13510.34522198541093720848
.
Quentin Richardson, ORL9.7657-0.256-3.85010340103821149
.
Brandon Rush, IND10.79520.251-3.346103401072321250
.
Sam Young, MEM11.51460.345-5.75799511051421351
.
Josh Childress, PHX12.6370.640-2.545106321136021452
.
DeMar DeRozan, TOR13.2333222-866106321146621953
.
Bill Walker, NY10.4655053-0.833105351125122754
.
Sasha Vujacic, NJ11.77430.345-4.55599511093723155
.
Sonny Weems, TOR12.27390.640-3.95199511146624756
.
Keith Bogans, CHI6.9369-1.470-5.75710147103825157
.
Willie Green, NO8.7862-0.764-5.95996601051425958
.
Evan Turner, PHI9.2159-0.662-6.26195651051426159
.
Raja Bell, UTAH9.0260-0.968-8.167109201125126660
.
Anthony Parker, CLE9.9956-0.357-242101471146626861
.
Alonzo Gee, CLE961-0.357-4.35496601093726962
.
Gerald Henderson, CHA8.7363-0.560-5.15693681072327063
.
Greivis Vasquez, MEM8.4964-0.662-8.16796601093729064
.
Xavier Henry, MEM7.5566-0.764-6.16098541114729165
.
Manny Harris, CLE9.4658-0.357-13.97092691114730166
.
Rasual Butler, LAC7.3968-169-6.66297581125130867
.
Wayne Ellington, MIN7.8965-0.764-116995651136032368
.
Joey Graham, CLE7.4467-0.560-7.56595651146632368
.
Randy Foye, LAC6.5470-0.764-76492691146633370

I'll be posting my observations on the shooting guard rankings in the next couple of days. Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Miami Heat - Early Season Returns

After signing LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, the Miami Heat were expected by many to run roughshod over the rest of the NBA...to become barnstormers in the tradition of the Harlem Globetrotters.  But the road to a season with 72+ wins has unexpectedly included huge potholes, and the Heat have not quite performed up to those lofty expections.

Miami is 6-4 and has already lost twice to Eastern Conference rival Boston.  They've also lost to the still undefeated New Orleans Hornets in the Big Easy and at home to a hot Utah Jazz team.  I don't think any of the four losses should be filed in the "Bad Loss" category.  What do the early season statistics tell us about the Heat?  Let's take a look.

I predicted the Heat would finish the season at 62-20.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.2 (4th in the NBA) [106.6 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 101.0 (5th) [104.1 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.2 [2.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 102.7 (8th) [96.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 93.3 (5th) [94.2 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.4 (22nd) [89.6]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

LeBron James
Offensive Rating: 107 (121 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 99 (102)
PER: 23.6 (31.1)

Photo source: rubendn
Dwyane Wade
Offensive Rating: 110 (113)
Defensive Rating: 100 (103)
PER: 24.4 (28.0)

Chris Bosh
Offensive Rating: 118 (117)
Defensive Rating: 101 (111)
PER: 18.7 (25.0)

Udonis Haslem
Offensive Rating: 112 (111)
Defensive Rating: 99 (104)
PER: 13.6 (14.6)

James Jones
Offensive Rating: 144 (113)
Defensive Rating: 105 (108)
PER: 14.7 (8.8)

Carlos Arroyo
Offensive Rating: 109 (115)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 10.0 (12.3)

Eddie House
Offensive Rating: 106 (99)
Defensive Rating: 101 (109)
PER: 12.1 (10.5)

Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Offensive Rating: 116 (102)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 15.1 (12.0)

Joel Anthony
Offensive Rating: 135 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (103)
PER: 8.3 (10.2)

From a statistical ranking standpoint the Heat look good with both their Offensive and Defensive Efficiency within the NBA's top five.  A 10.2 rating differential is also excellent, and much improved, as you'd expect.  Interestingly, they do play at a rather slow pace of 91.4 possessions per game, which ranks them 22nd in the NBA.  You'd think that with LeBron and Wade they would play at a quicker pace.

The two most fascinating storylines around the Heat will be one, how the combination of the The Big Three affects the productivity of each individual superstar, and two, how much the supporting cast will contribute.

Starting with the first storyline, immediately you notice that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are all producing less in 2010 than they did last season.  LeBron's PER has dropped by 7.5 points.  His shooting percentage is down, his scoring is down, his rebounding is down and his turnovers are up.  Bosh's PER is down 6.3 points.  His scoring and rebounding have dropped nearly 50%.  Wade's PER has fallen by the smallest amount among The Big Three, 3.6 points.  His shooting percentage and rebounding are actually up but his assists and scoring are down.
 
Looking at the second storyline, you can see some of the challenges Miami has experienced so far.  Only one of the six Heat players in the supporting cast who have played significant minutes has a PER above the average player.  That one is Ilgauskas who is 0.1 above the average.
 
Jones has put in some good minutes and has raised his PER by nearly six points over last season.  His Offensive Rating is an extremely impressive 144.
 
Haslem is being counted on to be one of the closers on the front line but his production has not been good and is down from 2009/10.  The same can be said of starting "point guard" Arroyo.
 
The Heat are said to be reconsidering Erick Dampier.  Look no further than the play of Anthony for the reason.  His 8.3 PER is miserable.
 
Miami will be happy to get Mike Miller back from injury, but even taking that into consideration, it looks like they may need to make another move, to secure a strong defensive low post player, if they want to claim the NBA Finals.
 
What are your thoughts on the first 10 games of the Heat season?  What do you think they need to do to become the Superteam they are supposed to be?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Miami Heat - Better or Worse

I think the answer to that question is clear.  The Heat made the big splash over the summer, persuading LeBron to "take [his] talents to South Beach," along with Chris Bosh.  Dwayne Wade returned to form the Miami Three or Evil Empire or some other clever nickname.  There is much debate about whether the "Super Team" concept is good for the NBA.  I fall strongly on the positive side of that debate.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)


Miami Beach Photo: humbertomoreno
Back to our main premise - the Heat are better, but by how much?

Point Guard
2009 - Carlos Arroyo (#32 PG, Level 6), Mario Chalmers (#48 PG, Level 9)
2009 - Mario Chalmers (#48 PG, Level 9), Carlos Arroyo (#32 PG, Level 6)

Rafer Alston was also a contributor to the Heat at point guard last year.  After a solid rookie season Chalmers was a disappointment last season.  He'll have two options - step up his game or sit on the bench.  It's very likely that LeBron will play point forward, especially in the clutch

Shooting Guard
2009 - Dwayne Wade (#2 SG, Level 1), Daequan Cook (#69 SG, below level)
2010 - Dwayne Wade (#2 SG, Level 1), Mike Miller (#23 SG, Level 5)

You can't get much better than Wade, who finished just behind Manu Ginobili in the shooting guard rankings.  Miller could be considered for shooting guard or small forward.  I put him in as a guard because he played that role predominantly last season.  This year he'll be more like the backup wing.

Small Forward
2009 - Quentin Richardson (#18 SG, Level 4), Dorell Wright (#10 SF, Level 4)
2010 - LeBron James (#1 SF, Level 1)

The Heat actually got some pretty good production from the small forward position in 2009-2010.  Of course, LeBron takes that to a whole new level.  The win difference here is hard to predict because he is so far and away better than every other small forward.

Power Forward
2009 - Michael Beasley (#38 PF, Level 6), Udonis Haslem (#30 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Chris Bosh (#8 PF, Level 3), Udonis Haslem (#30 PF, Level 6)

Bosh led all NBA power forwards in PER but his cumulative ranking was dragged down by his Defensive Rating.  That rating can be greatly influenced by the team.  If Haslem can put the spliffs down for long enough he'll be an excellent backup.

Center
2009 - Jermaine O'Neal (#15 C, Level 4), Joel Anthony (#36 C, Level 8)
2010 - Zydrunas Ilgauskas (#46 C, Level 8), Joel Anthony (#36 C, Level 8)

It will be interesting to see what the Heat do at the center position.  They have a number of players (Ilgauskas, Anthony, Juwan Howard and Jamaal Magloire) who can play the position for short periods of time.  It's certainly possible that Bosh and Haslem get some playing time at the five as well.

Overall
Last year the Heat finished 47-35 and had the five seed in the Eastern Conference.  While their record was good, it was clear in the playoffs that Wade needed a lot more help.  He definitely has help now.  Based on their projected lineup for the 2010-2011 season I've got them adding one win at point guard (with LeBron and Chalmers' improvement), three wins at shooting guard, nine wins at small forward and four wins at power forward, while losing two wins at center.

In the final verdict the Heat are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 62-20.  Man, that seems low, but that's what I've got.

What do you think?  Is my prediction too low or realistic?  Let me know in the comments section below.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

NBA Shooting Guards 2010 Rankings Analysis

Yesterday I posted the cumulative rankings of NBA shooting guards based on their play last season using the combination of five different statistical evaluations.  Below are my thoughts on the data.
  • As I mentioned when I posted the rankings, I am absolutely shocked to see Manu Ginobili sitting at the top spot.  I certainly expected it to be Dwayne Wade or Kobe Bryant.  Ginobili is solid all around, ranking either second or third in all five categories.
  • Wade finished first in three of the categories but was hurt by a #12 ranking on Offensive Rating.
  • Similarly, Kobe was hurt by finishing 29th in the Offensive Rating.
  • Ginobili and Wade are far and away above the rest.  The second level includes Kobe, Brandon Roy and Vince Carter.  I would say the third level includes six guys - Ray Allen, Joe Johnson, John Salmons, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jamal Crawford and Jason Richardson.
  • These guys ranked higher than I expected - Carter, Beaubois, Kyle Korver and Quentin Richardson.
  • I was surprised by the lower rankings of these guys - Joe Johnson, O.J. Mayo and Ben Gordon.
  • It's downright shocking to me that Portland will be signing Wesley Matthews to a five year, $34 million deal.  He ranked 31st by this cumulative statistical analysis.  Now granted, I realize it was his rookie season and you have to allow for growth, but that's a very large contract to give somebody for one year after those contributions.
  • Surprisingly J.J. Redick topped the Offensive Rating category.
  • Not surprising, if you watched the NBA Finals, Tony Allen came in at number one in Defensive Rating.
  • I still think the Bucks signing of John Salmons will prove to be an excellent decision.  Salmons ranked a solid eighth among shooting guards in the cumulative rankings and signed a five year deal for just $5 million more than what Portland gave to Matthews.
What player rankings surprise you the most?

Monday, July 19, 2010

NBA Shooting Guards 2010 - Cumulative Rankings

The results of my cumulative rankings for NBA shooting guards were a definite surprise.  I did not expect Manu Ginobili to top the charts.  Dwayne Wade was pretty close to him but Ginobili's #3 Offensive Rating compared to Wade's #12 ranking in that category made the difference. 

(I've previously posted the full details on the ranking system, as well as the 2010 NBA Point Guard Rankings.)

Here's what the rankings of NBA shooting guards looks like for the 2009-2010 season, with their cumulative totals included for differentiation:

  1. Manu Ginobili, SAS 13
  2. Dwyane Wade, MIA 17
  3. Kobe Bryant, LAL 40
  4. Brandon Roy, POR 51
  5. Vince Carter, ORL 54
  6. Ray Allen, BOS 70
  7. Joe Johnson, ATL 70
  8. John Salmons, MIL 75
  9. Rodrigue Beaubois, DAL 79
  10. Jamal Crawford, ATL 80
  11. Jason Richardson, PHO 81
  12. Kevin Martin, HOU 94
  13. Andre Iguodala, PHI 95
  14. Jason Terry, DAL 95
  15. Stephen Jackson, CHA 98
  16. Kyle Korver, UTH 98
  17. James Harden, OKC 100
  18. Quentin Richardson, MIA 103
  19. J.J. Redick, ORL 107
  20. Marcus Thornton, NOR 119
  21. Delonte West, CLE 121
  22. J.R. Smith, DEN 131
  23. Mike Miller, WAS 133
  24. Rudy Fernandez, POR 143
  25. Tony Allen, BOS 148
  26. A.J. Price, IND 153
  27. Anthony Morrow, GSW 154
  28. O.J. Mayo, MEM 155
  29. Bill Walker, NYK 155
  30. Toney Douglas, NYK 161
  31. Wesley Matthews, UTH 169
  32. Ronnie Brewer, MEM 174
  33. Eric Gordon, LAC 177
  34. Leandro Barbosa, PHO 186
  35. Sasha Vujacic, LAL 191
  36. Marco Belinelli, TOR 193
  37. Monta Ellis, GSW 193
  38. Anthony Parker, CLE 195
  39. Kirk Hinrich, CHI 198
  40. Richard Hamilton, DET 199
  41. Francisco Garcia, SAC 200
  42. Courtney Lee, NJN 202
  43. Thabo Sefolosha, OKS 213
  44. Randy Foye, WAS 217
  45. Jerry Stackhouse, MIL 218
  46. Allen Iverson, PHI 219
  47. Ben Gordon, DET 219
  48. Arron Afflalo, DEN 220
  49. Keyon Dooling, NJN 222
  50. Larry Hughes, CHA 222
  51. Luther Head, IND 231
  52. Willie Green, PHI 234
  53. Sonny Weems, TOR 239
  54. Ronald Murray, CHI 246
  55. Marquis Daniels, BOS 249
  56. Tracy McGrady, NYK 251
  57. Jodie Meeks, PHI 252
  58. Sam Young, MEM 253
  59. Joey Graham, DEN 254
  60. DeMar DeRozan, TOR 260
  61. Keith Bogans, SAS 260
  62. Rasual Butler, LAC 262
  63. Nick Young, WAS 263
  64. Dahntay Jones, IND 269
  65. Roger Mason, SAS 269
  66. Corey Brewer, MIN 270
  67. Charlie Bell, GSW 275
  68. Brandon Rush, IND 276
  69. Daequan Cook, MIA 284
  70. Devin Brown, NOH 285
  71. Wayne Ellington, MIN 295
  72. Morris Peterson, NOR 302
  73. DeShawn Stevenson, DAL 341
Like I did with the point guards, I'll be posting my thoughts on the rankings in a couple of days.  Let me know what you think by posting a comment below.