NBA Eastern Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

With NBA All Star weekend coming up I want to take a look at the players that I think should be on the Eastern Conference roster.  I'm basing this roster on my mid-season player rankings.  You can find the formula for the ranking system on the 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.

Photo source: David Jones

Here are the five players that I think earned a starting spot:
G: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
F: Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
C: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

My starting lineup only has one different player from the starters the fans chose.  I have Paul Pierce starting at the forward spot over Amare Stoudamire.

Here are the seven additional Eastern Conference players that I think are worthy of being All Stars:
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
G: Ray Allen, Boston Celtics
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
F: Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
C: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
F: Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls

As you can see, I don't even have Stoudamire on the Eastern Conference All Star roster.  A peek at my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings shows you why - Stoudamire is the 14th most productive power forward in the NBA through the first half of the season.  Boozer has been the 10th most productive power forward.

The other roster difference is that I have Noah in place of Joe Johnson.  Johnson finished a very respectable seventh in my mid-season shooting guard rankings but Andre Iguodala, who finished fifth on those same rankings, would have been the next guard in line.  When matched up head-to-head in the five statistical analysis categories I like to use, Noah wins three (PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating) to Johnson's two (Estimated Wins Added and Simple Rating).

Overall, Sunday night's Eastern Conference roster is pretty close to the group I think should be playing.  Ultimately, I don't have an issue with Stoudamire making the team based on his full season contribution to the Knicks versus Boozer and Noah, who both missed significant time.  I do think that one of those Bulls frontliners should have made the team over Johnson.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings

I posted my mid-season NBA power forward rankings earlier in the week - here are my observations on those rankings:

Photo source: bridgetds

• Pau Gasol continues to stay on top of the power forward rankings.  He was first in my final power forward rankings for the 2009-10 season as well.  However, Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett have closed the gap.  Gasol finished 25 points ahead of Garnett and 26 points ahead of Nowitzki in 09-10.  Through mid-season 10-11 he's only 14 ahead of Nowitzki and 16 ahead of Garnett.
• Gasol is in first despite not leading any single category.  Kevin Love has the best PER and Estimated Wins Added.  Nowitzki has the best Simple Rating.  Garnett has the best Defensive Rating.  Oddly, Matt Bonner leads in Offensive Rating.
• There's a large third level with Love, David West, Chris Bosh, Lamar Odom, Zach Randolph and Carlos Boozer all within seven points of each other.
• Ryan Anderson presents an interesting case.  I don't think anyone really believes he's the fourth best power forward in the NBA.  However, he's in the top 10 in all categories except for Estimated Wins Added.  That raises the key point with Anderson - with an average of less than 20 minutes per game his playing time is well below that of everybody in the top 15.
• The biggest positive surprises to me, beyond Anderson, are David West, Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young and Kris Humphries.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Josh Smith, Jeff Green and Al Harrington.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 09-10 rankings are Thaddeus Young (up 41), Kris Humphries (up 31) and Elton Brand (up 26).
• Young has boosted his PER from 14.08 to 17.96, his Simple Rating from -1.8 to 3.7, his Offensive Rating from 102 to 113 and his Defensive Rating from 111 to 105.
• Those who've fallen the most are Nick Collison (down 33), Dante Cunningham (down 30) and Shelden Williams (down 30).
• Blake Griffin is the highest rated rookie at 11th.  Greg Monroe and Ed Davis, who are tied for 41st, are the next rookies in the rankings.
• The two teams getting the least production from the power forward position are the Wizards and Nuggets.  Washington has Rashard Lewis at 46, Andray Blatche at 55 and Yi Jianlian at 72.  Denver has Kenyon Martin at 51, Al Harrington at 63 and Shelden Williams at 64.

Miami Heat - Early Season Returns

After signing LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, the Miami Heat were expected by many to run roughshod over the rest of the NBA...to become barnstormers in the tradition of the Harlem Globetrotters.  But the road to a season with 72+ wins has unexpectedly included huge potholes, and the Heat have not quite performed up to those lofty expections.

Miami is 6-4 and has already lost twice to Eastern Conference rival Boston.  They've also lost to the still undefeated New Orleans Hornets in the Big Easy and at home to a hot Utah Jazz team.  I don't think any of the four losses should be filed in the "Bad Loss" category.  What do the early season statistics tell us about the Heat?  Let's take a look.

I predicted the Heat would finish the season at 62-20.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.2 (4th in the NBA) [106.6 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 101.0 (5th) [104.1 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.2 [2.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 102.7 (8th) [96.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 93.3 (5th) [94.2 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.4 (22nd) [89.6]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

LeBron James
Offensive Rating: 107 (121 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 99 (102)
PER: 23.6 (31.1)

Photo source: rubendn

Dwyane Wade
Offensive Rating: 110 (113)
Defensive Rating: 100 (103)
PER: 24.4 (28.0)

Chris Bosh
Offensive Rating: 118 (117)
Defensive Rating: 101 (111)
PER: 18.7 (25.0)

Udonis Haslem
Offensive Rating: 112 (111)
Defensive Rating: 99 (104)
PER: 13.6 (14.6)

James Jones
Offensive Rating: 144 (113)
Defensive Rating: 105 (108)
PER: 14.7 (8.8)

Carlos Arroyo
Offensive Rating: 109 (115)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 10.0 (12.3)

Eddie House
Offensive Rating: 106 (99)
Defensive Rating: 101 (109)
PER: 12.1 (10.5)

Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Offensive Rating: 116 (102)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 15.1 (12.0)

Joel Anthony
Offensive Rating: 135 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (103)
PER: 8.3 (10.2)

From a statistical ranking standpoint the Heat look good with both their Offensive and Defensive Efficiency within the NBA's top five.  A 10.2 rating differential is also excellent, and much improved, as you'd expect.  Interestingly, they do play at a rather slow pace of 91.4 possessions per game, which ranks them 22nd in the NBA.  You'd think that with LeBron and Wade they would play at a quicker pace.

The two most fascinating storylines around the Heat will be one, how the combination of the The Big Three affects the productivity of each individual superstar, and two, how much the supporting cast will contribute.

Starting with the first storyline, immediately you notice that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are all producing less in 2010 than they did last season.  LeBron's PER has dropped by 7.5 points.  His shooting percentage is down, his scoring is down, his rebounding is down and his turnovers are up.  Bosh's PER is down 6.3 points.  His scoring and rebounding have dropped nearly 50%.  Wade's PER has fallen by the smallest amount among The Big Three, 3.6 points.  His shooting percentage and rebounding are actually up but his assists and scoring are down.
 
Looking at the second storyline, you can see some of the challenges Miami has experienced so far.  Only one of the six Heat players in the supporting cast who have played significant minutes has a PER above the average player.  That one is Ilgauskas who is 0.1 above the average.
 
Jones has put in some good minutes and has raised his PER by nearly six points over last season.  His Offensive Rating is an extremely impressive 144.
 
Haslem is being counted on to be one of the closers on the front line but his production has not been good and is down from 2009/10.  The same can be said of starting "point guard" Arroyo.
 
The Heat are said to be reconsidering Erick Dampier.  Look no further than the play of Anthony for the reason.  His 8.3 PER is miserable.
 
Miami will be happy to get Mike Miller back from injury, but even taking that into consideration, it looks like they may need to make another move, to secure a strong defensive low post player, if they want to claim the NBA Finals.
 
What are your thoughts on the first 10 games of the Heat season?  What do you think they need to do to become the Superteam they are supposed to be?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Miami Heat - Better or Worse

I think the answer to that question is clear.  The Heat made the big splash over the summer, persuading LeBron to "take [his] talents to South Beach," along with Chris Bosh.  Dwayne Wade returned to form the Miami Three or Evil Empire or some other clever nickname.  There is much debate about whether the "Super Team" concept is good for the NBA.  I fall strongly on the positive side of that debate.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Miami Beach Photo: humbertomoreno

Back to our main premise - the Heat are better, but by how much?

Point Guard
2009 - Carlos Arroyo (#32 PG, Level 6), Mario Chalmers (#48 PG, Level 9)
2009 - Mario Chalmers (#48 PG, Level 9), Carlos Arroyo (#32 PG, Level 6)

Rafer Alston was also a contributor to the Heat at point guard last year.  After a solid rookie season Chalmers was a disappointment last season.  He'll have two options - step up his game or sit on the bench.  It's very likely that LeBron will play point forward, especially in the clutch

Shooting Guard
2009 - Dwayne Wade (#2 SG, Level 1), Daequan Cook (#69 SG, below level)
2010 - Dwayne Wade (#2 SG, Level 1), Mike Miller (#23 SG, Level 5)

You can't get much better than Wade, who finished just behind Manu Ginobili in the shooting guard rankings.  Miller could be considered for shooting guard or small forward.  I put him in as a guard because he played that role predominantly last season.  This year he'll be more like the backup wing.

Small Forward
2009 - Quentin Richardson (#18 SG, Level 4), Dorell Wright (#10 SF, Level 4)
2010 - LeBron James (#1 SF, Level 1)

The Heat actually got some pretty good production from the small forward position in 2009-2010.  Of course, LeBron takes that to a whole new level.  The win difference here is hard to predict because he is so far and away better than every other small forward.

Power Forward
2009 - Michael Beasley (#38 PF, Level 6), Udonis Haslem (#30 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Chris Bosh (#8 PF, Level 3), Udonis Haslem (#30 PF, Level 6)

Bosh led all NBA power forwards in PER but his cumulative ranking was dragged down by his Defensive Rating.  That rating can be greatly influenced by the team.  If Haslem can put the spliffs down for long enough he'll be an excellent backup.

Center
2009 - Jermaine O'Neal (#15 C, Level 4), Joel Anthony (#36 C, Level 8)
2010 - Zydrunas Ilgauskas (#46 C, Level 8), Joel Anthony (#36 C, Level 8)

It will be interesting to see what the Heat do at the center position.  They have a number of players (Ilgauskas, Anthony, Juwan Howard and Jamaal Magloire) who can play the position for short periods of time.  It's certainly possible that Bosh and Haslem get some playing time at the five as well.

Overall
Last year the Heat finished 47-35 and had the five seed in the Eastern Conference.  While their record was good, it was clear in the playoffs that Wade needed a lot more help.  He definitely has help now.  Based on their projected lineup for the 2010-2011 season I've got them adding one win at point guard (with LeBron and Chalmers' improvement), three wins at shooting guard, nine wins at small forward and four wins at power forward, while losing two wins at center.

In the final verdict the Heat are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 62-20.  Man, that seems low, but that's what I've got.

What do you think?  Is my prediction too low or realistic?  Let me know in the comments section below.

NBA Power Forwards 2010 Rankings Analysis

Yesterday I posted the cumulative rankings of NBA power forwards based on their play in the 2009-2010 season when combining five different types of statistical analysis.  Here are my thoughts on the rankings.

• I mentioned it on the rankings post, but I have to mention it again, I was surprised at the wide margin by which Pau Gasol beat the field.  That is by far the biggest difference between first and second at any of the five positions.  Interestingly, Gasol did not finish first in any of the five categories.  In fact, his highest category ranking was third.
• The rest of the power forward pack is quite close.  Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki are neck and neck for second and third with Josh Smith right behind them.
• The category winners are Chris Bosh in PER, Amir Johnson in Offensive Rating, Tyrus Thomas in Defensive Rating, Josh Smith in WARP and Dirk Nowitzki in Simple Rating.  This is the only position in which a different player won each category.
• Guys that ranked higher than I expected - Marcus Camby, Ryan Anderson, Troy Murphy and Matt Bonner.
• Ranking lower than my expectations are - Chris Bosh, Rashard Lewis and Jeff Green.
• I was really surprised by Jeff Green's ranking.  I thought I had heard good things about him and I figured that with the Thunder excelling Green must have been playing a big part.  Add in the fact that he is competing for a spot on Team USA and I thought he must have had a good year.  Boy was I wrong.
• It's worth noting that Chris Bosh was really hurt by his Defensive Rating.  He was 62nd in the category.  In the other categories he finished first, second twice and seventh.  I highly doubt he'll have the same poor Defensive Rating next season.
• I was shocked to see how far Rashard Lewis has fallen.  His final rank of 36th can be attributed to an all-around poorly played season. 
• There are a number of guys on this list that will be asked to really step up next season like Kevin Love, Amir Johnson, Tyrus Thomas, Andray Blatche and Danilo Gallinari.  It will be fun to watch to see if they are up to the task.

What are your biggest surprises?