Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Shooting Guard Rankings

I recently posted my mid-season NBA shooting guard rankings.  Here are my observations on those rankings:

Photo source: Tiago Hammil

• Manu Ginobili and Dwyane Wade tied for the top spot.  That's no surprise - they were one and two in the 2009-10 Final Shooting Guard Rankings.  Wade is first in the PER and Estimated Wins Added categories while Ginobili leads the Simple Rating category.
• Ray Allen and Kobe Bryant are on the second level.  Allen moved up three spots from the 09-10 rankings while Bryant dropped one.
• Interestingly, Eric Gordon and Kevin Martin are both really hurt by their Defensive Rating.  Gordon tied for 51st and Martin tied for 60th. 
• Jason Richardson and Vince Carter, who were essentially swapped for each other by the Magic and Suns, come in 11th and 12th.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Andre Iguodala, Landry Fields, J.R. Smith and Ronnie Brewer.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Jason Terry, Stephen Jackson, O.J. Mayo and John Salmons. 
• The biggest jumpers from the final 09-10 rankings are DeShawn Stevenson (up 52), Nick Young (up 43) and Tracy McGrady (up 28).  Those are three very different cases.
• Stevenson boosted his PER from 3.3 last season to a career best 13.3 this season and his Simple Rating from -10 to 3.3. 
• The biggest droppers from 2009-10 are John Salmons (down 37), Quentin Richardson (down 31) and Randy Foye (down 26).
• Salmons really surprises me.  I expected him to be excellent for the Bucks this season after serving as such a uniter when he came over from Chicago during the middle of last season.  The most noticeable difference - his Simple Rating crashed from 7.9 in 09-10 to -4.2 this season.
• Fields is the highest ranking rookie at number 10.  Evan Turner is next at 59.
• The two teams getting the least production from the shooting guard position are Utah and Cleveland.  The Jazz have Raja Bell at 60.  The Cavaliers have Anthony Parker at 61, Alonzo Gee at 62, Manny Harris at 66 and Joey Graham at 68.

Milwaukee Bucks - Early Season Returns

To put it bluntly, the Bucks have been one of my biggest disappointments in 2010.  Before the season I predicted Milwaukee would put up a 49-33 record.  They are currently muddling around at 5-8.  The good news is that they only have two losses that would be lumped in the "Bad" category for a team that should be challenging for the Central Division title, at Minnesota and at Philadelphia.  But, if they don't start winning quickly they may find themselves in a hole from which they will not be able to dig out.

What have been the Bucks' biggest challenges?  Let's take a look at the advanced stats.

Photo source: compujeramey

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 99.4 (30th in the NBA) [104.9 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 99.1 (2nd) [103.1 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 0.3 [1.8 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 91.4 (30th) [97.7 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 91.1 (1st) [96.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.2 (22nd) [91.7 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Brandon Jennings
Offensive Rating: 104 (100 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 17.0 (14.5)

John Salmons
Offensive Rating: 96 (110)
Defensive Rating: 102 (106)
PER: 10.3 (14.7)

Andrew Bogut
Offensive Rating: 103 (107)
Defensive Rating: 96 (98)
PER: 16.5 (20.7)

Drew Gooden
Offensive Rating: 103 (109)
Defensive Rating: 97 (106)
PER: 16.6 (16.9)

Luc Mbah a Moute
Offensive Rating: 97 (111)
Defensive Rating: 99 (103)
PER: 9.2 (11.8)

Corey Maggette
Offensive Rating: 103 (116)
Defensive Rating: 102 (113)
PER: 15.1 (20.3)

Carlos Delfino
Offensive Rating: 104 (103)
Defensive Rating: 99 (103)
PER: 12.8 (12.9)

Ersan Ilyasova
Offensive Rating: 95 (110)
Defensive Rating: 98 (102)
PER: 11.3 (15.7)

Keyon Dooling
Offensive Rating: 82 (102)
Defensive Rating: 103 (113)
PER: 4.0 (11.6)

Earl Boykins
Offensive Rating: 104 (103)
Defensive Rating: 99 (114)
PER: 16.3 (12.9)

Jon Brockman
Offensive Rating: 107 (124)
Defensive Rating: 100 (110)
PER: 6.3 (12.4)

Looking at the team numbers the problem for the Bucks is clear - it's the offense.  They are currently last in the NBA at 99.4 points per 100 possessions.  They are also the worst shooting team in the NBA at 41.1%.  Keeping them afloat is their solid defense.  They are holding opponents to just 99.1 points per 100 possessions, the second best mark in the NBA.

Second year player Jennings cannot be blamed for the dropoff.  He's improved in all three areas noted above.  He's gone from a -4 differential to a +4 differential, a solid jump.  While still not a deadeye, he's raised his shooting to 39.4% from 37.1% last season.

After a very productive 2009/10 Bogut has dropped off a bit this year.  His shooting has fallen from 52% to 48% and his free throw shooting is an absolutely atrocious 46.3%.  He has maintained his defensive prowess however, letting up only 96 points per 100 possessions.

Gooden has given the Bucks right about what they should have been expecting.  His PER is just down a notch but his defense has benefitted from the emphasis on it in Milwaukee.  He's currently posting the best Defensive Rating of his career.

I'm surprised at how poorly Salmons is playing.  Right now he has the worst Offensive Rating of his nine year career.  After joining the Bucks toward the end of last season he posted a solid 17.6 PER.  That number is way down, to 10.3 through the first 13 games.  The main culprit - his shooting, which has dropped nearly 100 points.  He has been playing through an injury.  Hopefully he can put that behind him and start delivering on a more consistent basis.

Free agent acquisition Maggette is also struggling to provide the boost Milwaukee was hoping for when they signed him.  His PER has fallen 5.2 points from last season.  Like the others, he cannot put the ball through the twine.  At 41% he's shooting worse than in any other year of his career.  His assist percentage is also less than half of what it was in 2009/10.

Delfino started the first seven games before getting hurt.  He has improved his shooting but is down in most every other category despite playing bigger minutes.

Making our way down the rotation, the Bucks have to be disappointed in the production of Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova, Dooling and Brockman. 

How would you rate the Bucks through the first 13 games?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Milwaukee Bucks - Better or Worse

Milwaukee had their best record of the decade last season and then forced the Atlanta Hawks into a tough seven game first round playoff series.  One of their biggest challenges was scoring, so they traded for Corey Maggette in the offseason and signed Drew Gooden to provide low post punch.  Most importantly, they resigned swingman John Salmons who provided a big boost to the Bucks when he arrived in a midseason trade.  Will these moves be enough for Milwaukee to take a step to the next level?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source:  U.S. Army Environmental Command

Point Guard
2009 - Brandon Jennings (#23 PG, Level 5), Luke Ridnour (#8 PG, Level 2)
2010 - Brandon Jennings (#23 PG, Level 5), Keyon Dooling (#49 SG, Level 8)

Jennings made a huge splash in his first year but like most rookies he suffered from inconsistency.  His development this season will be a key to the Bucks success.  Ridnour was severely underrated as a backup.  Dooling is serviceable.

Shooting Guard
2009 - John Salmons (#8 SG, Level 3), Jerry Stackhouse (#45 SG, Level 8)
2010 - John Salmons (#8 SG, Level 3), Chris Douglas-Roberts (#54 SF, Below level)

A full season of Salmons will make a clear difference.  Stackhouse was a solid veteran presence that will be missed.  The Bucks will hope to get something from Michael Redd deeper into the season.

Small Forward
2009 - Carlos Delfino (#20 SF, Level 5), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (#26 SF, Level 6)
2010 - Corey Maggette (#14 SF, Level 4), Carlos Delfino (#20 SF, Level 5)

It will be interesting to see how Maggette fits into the hard-working, defensive-oriented culture of Milwaukee.  The Bucks got solid play at this position last year.  Delfino's versatility will enable him to get minutes at two or three positions.

Power Forward
2009 - Ersan Ilyasova (#19 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (#26 SF, Level 6), Ersan Ilyasova (#19 PF, Level 5)

The minutes distribution at the four for Milwaukee this season will likely be very similar to last season.  I believe Mbah a Moute will start because of his defensive ability.

Center
2009 - Andrew Bogut (#6 C, Level 2), Kurt Thomas (#50 C, Level 9)
2010 - Andrew Bogut (#6 C, Level 2), Drew Gooden (#36 PF, Level 6)

Bogut had a breakout season last year and should continue to be a force if he can stay healthy.  While not a traditional center, Gooden may get as much playing time at the five as he does the four because there's no clear backup.

Overall
The Bucks hope to build on last year's solid season and challenge the Bulls for the the Central Division title.  They have a solid nucleus in place.  If those key players continue to develop and the new pieces around them fit in well, Milwaukee could jump into the top half of the Eastern Conference playoff teams.

The Bucks put up a 46-36 record in 2009-2010.  Based on their projected 2010 lineup I've got them picking up one win at shooting guard, one and a half wins at small forward and half a win at center.  I think they'll come out even at point guard and center.

In the final verdict the Bucks are BETTER.  As they are now I predict their record will be 49-33 this season.  That would put them just one game behind my projected record for the Bulls.

NBA Shooting Guards 2010 Rankings Analysis

Yesterday I posted the cumulative rankings of NBA shooting guards based on their play last season using the combination of five different statistical evaluations.  Below are my thoughts on the data.

• As I mentioned when I posted the rankings, I am absolutely shocked to see Manu Ginobili sitting at the top spot.  I certainly expected it to be Dwayne Wade or Kobe Bryant.  Ginobili is solid all around, ranking either second or third in all five categories.
• Wade finished first in three of the categories but was hurt by a #12 ranking on Offensive Rating.
• Similarly, Kobe was hurt by finishing 29th in the Offensive Rating.
• Ginobili and Wade are far and away above the rest.  The second level includes Kobe, Brandon Roy and Vince Carter.  I would say the third level includes six guys - Ray Allen, Joe Johnson, John Salmons, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jamal Crawford and Jason Richardson.
• These guys ranked higher than I expected - Carter, Beaubois, Kyle Korver and Quentin Richardson.
• I was surprised by the lower rankings of these guys - Joe Johnson, O.J. Mayo and Ben Gordon.
• It's downright shocking to me that Portland will be signing Wesley Matthews to a five year, $34 million deal.  He ranked 31st by this cumulative statistical analysis.  Now granted, I realize it was his rookie season and you have to allow for growth, but that's a very large contract to give somebody for one year after those contributions.
• Surprisingly J.J. Redick topped the Offensive Rating category.
• Not surprising, if you watched the NBA Finals, Tony Allen came in at number one in Defensive Rating.
• I still think the Bucks signing of John Salmons will prove to be an excellent decision.  Salmons ranked a solid eighth among shooting guards in the cumulative rankings and signed a five year deal for just $5 million more than what Portland gave to Matthews.

What player rankings surprise you the most?