Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings

Yesterday I posted my mid-season rankings of NBA small forwards.  I know that NBA fans who don't believe in such detailed statistical analysis will scoff at such rankings, especially when they see Carmelo Anthony ranked just one spot above Matt Barnes.  But to me these rankings tell a majority of the story about how a player is producing and where he ranks among other NBA players.  Notice I said a majority of the story.  Do I think Tayshaun Prince is better than Carmelo?  No.  But I do think the stats provide a very strong base for starting those types of discussions.  I also think they are a good vehicle for tracking player trends.

Photo source: CT Snow, via Wikimedia Commons

So, with that said, here are my observations:

• As I mentioned yesterday, I find it very interesting that Carmelo is ranked one notch below Wilson Chandler.  For obvious reasons there has been a lot of discussion about Carmelo's value.  Henry Abbott does a great job of analyzing Carmelo's value on ESPN's TrueHoop blog.  The key category that pushes Chandler ahead of Carmelo is the Offensive Rating, or points per 100 possessions.  Carmelo beats out Chandler in each of the four other categories.
• No surprise that LeBron tops the list.  He leads in three of the five categories.  He finished the 2009-10 season in first as well. 
• Paul Pierce has had a great season so far.  I'm surprised how close he is to LeBron.  Those two are clearly a level above the rest.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Rudy Gay, Mike Dunleavy and Shawne Williams.
• I questioned the Grizzlies' signing of Gay to a max deal but he really has produced so far this season.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Gerald Wallace, Nicolas Batum and Corey Maggette.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 rankings are C.J. Miles (up 36), Chris Douglas-Roberts (up 32) and Wilson Chandler (up 28).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 rankings are Jamario Moon (down 36), Corey Maggette (down 21) and Travis Outlaw (down 20).
• Paul George is the highest rated rookie at 28.
• New Jersey and Cleveland are getting the worst production from the small forward position.  New Jersey has Travis Outlaw ranked 53rd and Stephen Graham ranked 57th.  Cleveland has Jamario Moon ranked at 54.

What jumps out at you from the small forward rankings?  Share your observations by posting a comment below.

Cleveland Cavaliers - Better or Worse

The walls came crashing down on the Cavs in July when LeBron James announced that he was leaving Cleveland for the city of sun and fun.  After it finally set in that the best player in the game was not going to be coming back next season, the new management team tried to do what they could to fortify the team.  By that point their options were extremely limited though because they had approached all prior roster changes with the expectation that LeBron would return.  What will this season look like for the Cavaliers?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: dfornal

Point Guard
2009 - Mo Williams (#16 PG, Level 4), Daniel Gibson (#37 PG, Level 7)
2010 - Mo Williams (#16 PG, Level 4), Ramon Sessions (#49 PG, Level 9)

While he couldn't seem to hit baskets when they really mattered, Williams had a good regular season.  Sessions was not properly used in Minnesota after playing quite well in Milwaukee.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Anthony Parker (#38 SG, Level 7), Delonte West (#21 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Anthony Parker (#38 SG, Level 7), Daniel Gibson (#37 PG, Level 7)

Parker shot well from three-point range and played good defense but was otherwise along for the ride last year.  Mo Williams will likely get a good number of minutes at the two this season.

Small Forward
2009 - LeBron James (#1 SF, Level 1), Jamario Moon (#18 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Jamario Moon (#18 SF, Level 5), Joey Graham (#59 SG, Level 9)

There will clearly be a huge drop off in production at small forward for the Cavs this season.  Moon's '09-'10 ranking is in large part due to his #4 Defensive Rating among small forwards, which was aided by the presence of LeBron.

Power Forward
2009 - Antawn Jamison (#24 PF, Level 5), Anderson Varejao (#7 PF, Level 2)
2010 - Antawn Jamison (#24 PF, Level 5), J.J. Hickson (#44 PF, Level 7)

Jamison was brought in as a key piece to help Cleveland get over the hump and win a title.  He never seemed to fit into the offense.  Hickson was excellent at some points and clueless at others.  Neither played well as the Cavs ship was going down against the Celtics.

Center
2009 - Shaquille O'Neal (#21 C, Level 5), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (#46 C, Level 8)
2010 - Anderson Varejao (#7 PF, Level 2), Ryan Hollins (#55 C, Below level)

Shaq was a productive starter last year while Ilgauskas put in good minutes when healthy.  Varejao needs to be just as steady at the five as he was at the four, but his game will suffer without LeBron.  Hollins has had very little impact in four years in the NBA.

Overall

The Cavs are a tough team to judge.  It's clear that they will take a big fall from last year but it's hard to quantify the number of victories that LeBron was worth.  Worse for Cavs fans is that they have very little in the way of talented youth to build the team up with for the future - maybe Hickson and Sessions.

Cleveland finished the '09-'10 season with a 61-21 record.  With their projected lineup I have them dropping 20 wins at small forward, four at power forward, two at point guard, two at center and two at shooting guard.  Much of the drop I'm projecting in the four positions other than small forward is attributed to the "LeBron effect."

In the final verdict the Cavaliers are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict that they will finish the season at 31-51.  That's probably high, but that's what I've got.

Let me know if you think my prediction is high or low by posting a comment below.