Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings

Yesterday I posted my mid-season rankings of NBA small forwards.  I know that NBA fans who don't believe in such detailed statistical analysis will scoff at such rankings, especially when they see Carmelo Anthony ranked just one spot above Matt Barnes.  But to me these rankings tell a majority of the story about how a player is producing and where he ranks among other NBA players.  Notice I said a majority of the story.  Do I think Tayshaun Prince is better than Carmelo?  No.  But I do think the stats provide a very strong base for starting those types of discussions.  I also think they are a good vehicle for tracking player trends.

Photo source: CT Snow, via Wikimedia Commons

So, with that said, here are my observations:

• As I mentioned yesterday, I find it very interesting that Carmelo is ranked one notch below Wilson Chandler.  For obvious reasons there has been a lot of discussion about Carmelo's value.  Henry Abbott does a great job of analyzing Carmelo's value on ESPN's TrueHoop blog.  The key category that pushes Chandler ahead of Carmelo is the Offensive Rating, or points per 100 possessions.  Carmelo beats out Chandler in each of the four other categories.
• No surprise that LeBron tops the list.  He leads in three of the five categories.  He finished the 2009-10 season in first as well. 
• Paul Pierce has had a great season so far.  I'm surprised how close he is to LeBron.  Those two are clearly a level above the rest.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Rudy Gay, Mike Dunleavy and Shawne Williams.
• I questioned the Grizzlies' signing of Gay to a max deal but he really has produced so far this season.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Gerald Wallace, Nicolas Batum and Corey Maggette.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 rankings are C.J. Miles (up 36), Chris Douglas-Roberts (up 32) and Wilson Chandler (up 28).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 rankings are Jamario Moon (down 36), Corey Maggette (down 21) and Travis Outlaw (down 20).
• Paul George is the highest rated rookie at 28.
• New Jersey and Cleveland are getting the worst production from the small forward position.  New Jersey has Travis Outlaw ranked 53rd and Stephen Graham ranked 57th.  Cleveland has Jamario Moon ranked at 54.

What jumps out at you from the small forward rankings?  Share your observations by posting a comment below.

New York Knicks - Early Season Returns

Photo source: Lordcolus

The Knicks made as many changes to their roster as any team in the NBA.  How have all the moves helped New York?  If you look at the record the answer is - incrementally.  The Knicks were 1-8 in the first nine games of 2009 and have started the 2010/11 season 3-6.

They have a really good win at Chicago but have now lost four in a row.  Let's take a look at the team stats and some advanced individual stats to see what they tell us.

Before that though, I predicted the Knicks would have a 40-42 record.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 103.8 (23rd in the NBA) [107.6 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 106.8 (17th) [111.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -3.0 [-4.0 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 102.4 (11th) [102.1 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 105.3 (24th) [105.9 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 98.7 (2nd) [94.0 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Raymond Felton
Offensive Rating:  114 (107 in 2009)
Defensive Rating:  109 (103)
PER:  18.7 (15.2)

Amare Stoudamire
Offensive Rating: 97 (117 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (109)
PER: 16.8 (22.6)

Wilson Chandler
Offensive Rating: 104 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (113)
PER: 18.5 (13.7)

Danilo Gallinari
Offensive Rating: 117 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 109 (112)
PER: 14.7 (14.8)

Toney Douglas
Offensive Rating: 107 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 106 (113)
PER: 16.2 (14.9)

Landry Fields
Offensive Rating: 121 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 108
PER: 14.9

Ronny Turiaf
Offensive Rating: 136 (110 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (110)
PER: 16.6 (12.6)

Timofey Mozgov
Offensive Rating: 76 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103 (103)
PER: 5.9 (15.2)

Bill Walker
Offensive Rating: 91 (122 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 113 (113)
PER: 4.8 (14.6)

The Knicks are playing at a faster pace than last season but their offensive efficiency has gone down.  That is not a recipe for success.  However, they've improved their defensive efficiency by nearly five points per 100 possessions and have increased their efficiency margin to -3 from -4 in 2009/10.

Because of all the roster turnover we cannot quite compare apples to apples as far as individual contributions.  So let's start by taking a look at the new additions.  It is clear that Stoudamire is underperforming his massive contract.  His year over year drop in PER from 22.6 to 16.8 is frightening.  The most obvious culprit - his field-goal shooting percentage has fallen more than 100 points.

The other big offseason acquisition, Felton, has been an excellent contributor.  I ranked him as one of the top 10 point guards in the NBA after last season.  On a less defensively-focused team his Defensive Rating has risen but his Offensive Rating has matched it.  There was uncertainty about his ability to run the up tempo Knicks offense, but he is clearly excelling in the system.

Chandler has been a solid contributor off the bench.  He's raised his PER almost five points from last season and has the second highest PER on the team.  Douglas has authored a nice little jump in his PER as well and has been outstanding in a few games.

The Knicks have to hope that Gallinari has recovered from his early season wrist injury.  Cumulatively over the first nine games, he's been just a guy.  The average PER ranking is 15.0 and he's at 14.7.  The good news is that he's picked up his play over the last two games.  His 35% field-goal shooting percentage is really hurting him.

Fields is starting and his 14.9 PER portrays him as just a guy. But he does have an excellent margin in efficiency, with a +13.  Fellow rookie Mozgov has been pretty awful.

Turiaf is the only piece from the David Lee trade that has contributed in a meaningful way so far.  The hope is that Anthony Randolph, who is now playing, will get into playing shape quickly and start to reach his massive potential even more quickly. 

How would you assess the first nine games of the Knicks season?  What do you hope to see as the season progresses?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

New York Knicks - Better or Worse?

This post is the first of a series where I will be looking at the moves made by each NBA team during the offseason and comparing their current roster to their 2009 roster and using the cumulative rankings system I developed to judge whether the team is better or worse.

Photo source: jhartney

The New York Knicks will be the first team I will be evaluating.  The Knicks went into the offseason with a lot of cap room and high hopes.  They had been playing all of their cards the last couple of seasons in a way that would enable them to make a big splash in the summer of 2010.  Of course, their main target was LeBron James.  They didn't get LeBron, but they certainly made some additions that should help them improve.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Chris Duhon (#59 PG, Unranked), Sergio Rodriguez (#40 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Raymond Felton (#10 PG, Level 3), Toney Douglas (#30 SG, Level 6)

The signing of Felton was a huge upgrade for the Knicks at the point guard position.  The player that had the most minutes as the position last year, Duhon, was the 59th ranked point guard in the league.  Felton was an impressive 10th, putting him at the top of the third level.  Douglas is also an upgrade in the backup role and he can be expected to improve on his rookie season.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Tracy McGrady (#56 SG, Level 9), Toney Douglas (#30 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Wilson Chandler (#34 SF, Level 8), Kelenna Azubuike (injured)

While not a big upgrade, Chandler did outperform McGrady last year and should continue to develop. 

Small Forward
2009 - Wilson Chandler (#34 SF, Level 8)
2010 - Danilo Gallinari (#37 PF, Level 6)

While their overall rankings look close, Gallinari actually outperformed Chandler by a pretty good margin last year.  Gallinari's ratings are: PER - 14.89, Offense - 113, Defense - 112, WARP - 3.2, and Simple -1.3.  Chandler's ratings are: PER - 13.76, Offense - 106, Defense - 113, WARP - 0, and Simple 0.9.

Power Forward
2009 - Danilo Gallinari (#37 PF, Level 6), Al Harrington (#47 PF, Level 7)
2010 - Amare Stoudamire (#10 PF, Level 3), Anthony Randolph (#32 PF, Level 6)

Stoudamire is a big upgrade at the power forward position, taking the spot up three levels for the Knicks.  Randolph is a nice little improvement in the backup role.

Center
2009 - David Lee (#12 C, Level 3)
2010 - Ronny Turiaf (#45 C, Level 8)

Lee had an excellent season in New York last year.  Turiaf can't hope to match it but the Knicks will surely mix up their lineups and Turiaf will play nowhere near the amount of minutes that Lee did.

Overall
The Knicks finished 29-53 last year.  My rough estimate is that each level difference in a starter is worth a win while each level difference in a backup is worth half a win.  According to that formula the Knicks gain eight wins at point guard, one win at shooting guard, two wins at small forward and three and a half wins at power forward.  They lose five wins at center.  The net total is nine and a half.  I like this mix of players and think it's a good group for Mike D'Antoni's system so I'm going to bump that up to 11.

In the final verdict the Knicks are BETTER.  As they are now I predict their record to be 40-42.