Deron Williams and Devin Harris - Performance Comparison

After putting together the 2010-11 performance comparison between Chauncey Billups and Raymond Felton I thought it would be interesting to compare some of the other point guards who were involved in trades.

Next up are Deron Williams and Devin Harris.  I was shocked by the abruptness of Utah's trade of Williams.  I certainly consider Williams to be one of the best point guards in the NBA.  While he was only sixth in my midseason point guard rankings for 2010-11, he was first in my 2009-10 full season point guard rankings.  However, I do think that the Jazz got a lot of value out of the trade.

I didn't expect the stats of Williams and Harris to be competitive, but I was curious to see how far apart they were.  Here's what the key statistics look like:

. Statistic Deron Williams Devin Harris . MPG 37.9 31.9 . PER 21.98 17.92 . EWA 11.4 6.1 . True S% 58.2 54.3 . 3FG% 33.6 30.2 . Ast/36 9.4 8.6 . Tur/36 3.3 3.3 . ORtg 115 108 . DRtg 112 111 . Opp PER 14.9 18.3 . On Ct/48 0.8 -5.9 . Off Ct/48 7.7 -8

Not surprisingly there is a rather large gap between the performances of Williams and Harris so far this season.  Williams is more than four points better in PER and has contributed five more wins than Harris has in 2010-11.

The only stat lines where Harris can compete with Williams are turnovers per 36 minutes and Defensive Rating.  However, when it comes to defense Williams is much better in Opponent's PER than Harris.

For the Nets the final grade on the trade for Deron Williams will come down to whether they are able to sign him to a contract extension.  I give them a lot of credit for having the courage to make this type of trade.  For the most part the writing is on the wall - a franchise will not win an NBA title in the near future without top flight superstars.  New Jersey decided the opportunity to add one of the best point guards in the game was worth the risk.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings

Yesterday I posted my mid-season rankings of NBA small forwards.  I know that NBA fans who don't believe in such detailed statistical analysis will scoff at such rankings, especially when they see Carmelo Anthony ranked just one spot above Matt Barnes.  But to me these rankings tell a majority of the story about how a player is producing and where he ranks among other NBA players.  Notice I said a majority of the story.  Do I think Tayshaun Prince is better than Carmelo?  No.  But I do think the stats provide a very strong base for starting those types of discussions.  I also think they are a good vehicle for tracking player trends.

Photo source: CT Snow, via Wikimedia Commons

So, with that said, here are my observations:

• As I mentioned yesterday, I find it very interesting that Carmelo is ranked one notch below Wilson Chandler.  For obvious reasons there has been a lot of discussion about Carmelo's value.  Henry Abbott does a great job of analyzing Carmelo's value on ESPN's TrueHoop blog.  The key category that pushes Chandler ahead of Carmelo is the Offensive Rating, or points per 100 possessions.  Carmelo beats out Chandler in each of the four other categories.
• No surprise that LeBron tops the list.  He leads in three of the five categories.  He finished the 2009-10 season in first as well. 
• Paul Pierce has had a great season so far.  I'm surprised how close he is to LeBron.  Those two are clearly a level above the rest.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Rudy Gay, Mike Dunleavy and Shawne Williams.
• I questioned the Grizzlies' signing of Gay to a max deal but he really has produced so far this season.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Gerald Wallace, Nicolas Batum and Corey Maggette.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 rankings are C.J. Miles (up 36), Chris Douglas-Roberts (up 32) and Wilson Chandler (up 28).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 rankings are Jamario Moon (down 36), Corey Maggette (down 21) and Travis Outlaw (down 20).
• Paul George is the highest rated rookie at 28.
• New Jersey and Cleveland are getting the worst production from the small forward position.  New Jersey has Travis Outlaw ranked 53rd and Stephen Graham ranked 57th.  Cleveland has Jamario Moon ranked at 54.

What jumps out at you from the small forward rankings?  Share your observations by posting a comment below.

New Jersey Nets - Better or Worse

Photo source: Marianne O'Leary

After a 12-70 season it appears that the only place for the New Jersey Nets to go is up.  While they had their shot to speak to many of the premier free agents over the summer, they were unable to bring any of them into the fold.  However, with new owner Mikhail Prokhorov and new head coach Avery Johnson I think it's a safe bet that the Nets (or whatever they will soon be called) won't be down for long.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Devin Harris (#38 PG, Level 7)
2010 - Devin Harris (#38 PG, Level 7), Jordan Farmar (#42 PG, Level 8)

Harris is definitely an asset for the Nets.  While his overall ranking isn't pretty, his PER was a respectable 22nd among point guards.  With some better talent around him I think his numbers improve.  Farmar is a solid backup.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Courtney Lee (#42 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Anthony Morrow (#27 SG, Level 6)

Morrow is a nice little upgrade over Lee, who never seemed to fit in with the Nets.  The addition of Farmar may give Harris an opportunity to play off the ball a little more as well.

Small Forward
2009 - Chris Douglas-Roberts (#54 SF, Below level), Terrence Williams (#48 SF, Level 10)
2010 - Terrence Williams (#48 SF, Level 10), Travis Outlaw (#33 SF, Level 7)

Williams really started to turn it on last year as the season came to a close.  The Nets are counting on his continued growth and would like to use him in a point forward type role more in his second year.  Outlaw is a good addition that should provide offensive firepower.

Power Forward
2009 - Yi Jianlian (#61 PF, Below level), Kris Humphries (#48 PF, Level 7)
2010 - Troy Murphy (#16 PF, Level 4), Derrick Favors (rookie), Kris Humphries (#48 PF, Level 7)

The Nets have certainly upgraded the power forward position.  While some experts are concerned that the addition of Murphy will take developmental minutes away from Favors, the last two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference should be up for grabs and who knows what could happen.

Center
2009 - Brook Lopez (#16 C, Level 4), Josh Boone (#41 C, Level 8)
2010 - Brook Lopez (#16 C, Level 4), Johan Petro (unranked)

Like Harris, Lopez was frequently mentioned as one of the positives that New Jersey has that makes it an attractive destination for free agents.  His continued development will be a key to the future success of the Nets.

Overall
Having two players that started the majority of the games at their position finish below level in the overall rankings is an embarrassment.  The Nets have clearly improved, but by how much?  Based on their projected 2010 lineup they will gain two wins at point guard, one at shooting guard, three and a half at small forward, eight at power forward and one at center. Of course I had to factor some development points into the total.

In the final verdict the Nets are BETTER.  As they are now I predict their record to be 28-54.