NBA Eastern Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

With NBA All Star weekend coming up I want to take a look at the players that I think should be on the Eastern Conference roster.  I'm basing this roster on my mid-season player rankings.  You can find the formula for the ranking system on the 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.

Photo source: David Jones

Here are the five players that I think earned a starting spot:
G: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
F: Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
C: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

My starting lineup only has one different player from the starters the fans chose.  I have Paul Pierce starting at the forward spot over Amare Stoudamire.

Here are the seven additional Eastern Conference players that I think are worthy of being All Stars:
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
G: Ray Allen, Boston Celtics
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
F: Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
C: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
F: Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls

As you can see, I don't even have Stoudamire on the Eastern Conference All Star roster.  A peek at my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings shows you why - Stoudamire is the 14th most productive power forward in the NBA through the first half of the season.  Boozer has been the 10th most productive power forward.

The other roster difference is that I have Noah in place of Joe Johnson.  Johnson finished a very respectable seventh in my mid-season shooting guard rankings but Andre Iguodala, who finished fifth on those same rankings, would have been the next guard in line.  When matched up head-to-head in the five statistical analysis categories I like to use, Noah wins three (PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating) to Johnson's two (Estimated Wins Added and Simple Rating).

Overall, Sunday night's Eastern Conference roster is pretty close to the group I think should be playing.  Ultimately, I don't have an issue with Stoudamire making the team based on his full season contribution to the Knicks versus Boozer and Noah, who both missed significant time.  I do think that one of those Bulls frontliners should have made the team over Johnson.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings

Yesterday I posted my mid-season rankings of NBA small forwards.  I know that NBA fans who don't believe in such detailed statistical analysis will scoff at such rankings, especially when they see Carmelo Anthony ranked just one spot above Matt Barnes.  But to me these rankings tell a majority of the story about how a player is producing and where he ranks among other NBA players.  Notice I said a majority of the story.  Do I think Tayshaun Prince is better than Carmelo?  No.  But I do think the stats provide a very strong base for starting those types of discussions.  I also think they are a good vehicle for tracking player trends.

Photo source: CT Snow, via Wikimedia Commons

So, with that said, here are my observations:

• As I mentioned yesterday, I find it very interesting that Carmelo is ranked one notch below Wilson Chandler.  For obvious reasons there has been a lot of discussion about Carmelo's value.  Henry Abbott does a great job of analyzing Carmelo's value on ESPN's TrueHoop blog.  The key category that pushes Chandler ahead of Carmelo is the Offensive Rating, or points per 100 possessions.  Carmelo beats out Chandler in each of the four other categories.
• No surprise that LeBron tops the list.  He leads in three of the five categories.  He finished the 2009-10 season in first as well. 
• Paul Pierce has had a great season so far.  I'm surprised how close he is to LeBron.  Those two are clearly a level above the rest.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Rudy Gay, Mike Dunleavy and Shawne Williams.
• I questioned the Grizzlies' signing of Gay to a max deal but he really has produced so far this season.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Gerald Wallace, Nicolas Batum and Corey Maggette.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 rankings are C.J. Miles (up 36), Chris Douglas-Roberts (up 32) and Wilson Chandler (up 28).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 rankings are Jamario Moon (down 36), Corey Maggette (down 21) and Travis Outlaw (down 20).
• Paul George is the highest rated rookie at 28.
• New Jersey and Cleveland are getting the worst production from the small forward position.  New Jersey has Travis Outlaw ranked 53rd and Stephen Graham ranked 57th.  Cleveland has Jamario Moon ranked at 54.

What jumps out at you from the small forward rankings?  Share your observations by posting a comment below.

Boston Celtics - Early Season Returns

The Celtics have gotten off to a solid 6-2 start and lead the rather weak Atlantic Division.  They suffered a bad loss at Cleveland in their second game but the other loss was at Dallas, certainly respectable.  They also have a couple of really good wins - Miami on opening night and at Oklahoma City.

Before the season I predicted the Celtics would finish 51-31.

Photo source: St. Groove

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 104.4 (20th in the NBA) [107.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 98.8 (3rd) [103.8 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 5.6 [3.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 97.9 (20th) [99.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 92.6 (5th) [95.6 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.3 [91.6 in 2009]

Player Stats

Rajon Rondo
Offensive Rating: 107 (111 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 96 (103)
PER: 20.7 (19.1)

Ray Allen
Offensive Rating: 107 (115)
Defensive Rating: 96 (108)
PER: 14.0 (15.2)

Paul Pierce
Offensive Rating: 113 (114)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 17.8 (18.2)

Kevin Garnett
Offensive Rating: 94 (112)
Defensive Rating: 93 (101)
PER: 15.8 (19.4)

Glen Davis
Offensive Rating: 120 (103)
Defensive Rating: 100 (106)
PER: 15.4 (11.5)

Shaquille O'Neal
Offensive Rating: 104 (104)
Defensive Rating: 101 (102)
PER: 13.7 (17.9)

Marquis Daniels
Offensive Rating: 116 (102)
Defensive Rating: 98 (107)
PER: 16.0 (9.6)

Jermaine O'Neal
Offensive Rating: 91 (108)
Defensive Rating: 97 (103)
PER: 9.1 (17.9)

Nate Robinson
Offensive Rating: 80 (104)
Defensive Rating: 105 (104)
PER: 2.4 (13.9)

Boston has excelled on the defensive end of the floor so far in 2010.  They've improved their Defensive Rating by five points over 2009-10.  The improvement is especially noticeable when Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen are on the floor.  Both have a Defensive Rating of 96.  Rondo improved from 103 and Allen from 108 last season.

Concerning for the Celtics is the drop in PER from the Big Three.  Paul Pierce's drop is a minimal 0.4 but Allen's is a more substantial 1.2 and Kevin Garnett's is a worrisome 3.6.  Garnett's field goal and free throw shooting percentages have dropped significantly over last season.  So has his assists rate even though he's playing more minutes.

The two O'Neal acquisitions have been somewhat of a letdown.  This is especially true for Jermaine whose PER has nearly been cut in half.  His shooting percentages have fallen even worse than Garnett's.

On the other hand, Glen Davis and Marquis Daniels have put in some excellent minutes off the bench.  Davis has a 20-point differential in his Offensive and Defensive Ratings while Daniels has an 18-point differential. 

Nate Robinson has struggled to provide productive minutes.  His 2.4 PER and -25 differential are atrocious.  Of course, he can't seem to throw the ball in the ocean.

What have you seen from the Celtics that you've liked or not liked so far this season?  What do you think they need to focus on to keep improving and earn a high seed in the playoffs?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Boston Celtics - Better or Worse?

The Celtics are coming off an excellent season where they took the Los Angeles Lakers to the brink during a thrilling, but odd, NBA Finals.  Heading into the offseason they were at a fork in the road.  The two options were to either make one more run or start to tear down and rebuild.  The Celtics chose to make another run and brought back coach Doc Rivers along with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce.  How do they look for 2010?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Rajon Rondo (#2 PG, Level 1), Nate Robinson (#34 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Rajon Rondo (#2 PG, Level 1), Nate Robinson (#34 PG, Level 6)

There will be no changes at the point guard position for the Celtics.  Rondo was a huge contributor in the playoffs and I think he can be expected to bear a bigger load for Boston.  Having Robinson from the beginning of the season will help as well.

Photo source: walknboston

Shooting Guard
2009 - Ray Allen (#6 SG, Level 3), Tony Allen (#25 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Ray Allen (#6 SG, Level 3), Delonte West (#21 SG, Level 5)

Ray Allen is back at shooting guard for the Celtics, but Tony Allen has taken the money and moved on to the Memphis Grizzlies.  Boston made a good move in bringing West in as the backup.  He can't be expected to be the stellar defender that Tony Allen was but he should add something on the offensive end, especially if he can get his three point percentage back up into the high 30s. 

Small Forward
2009 - Paul Pierce (#5 SF, Level 3)
2010 - Paul Pierce (#5 SF, Level 3)

Never was there a doubt that Pierce would resign with Boston. 

Power Forward
2009 - Kevin Garnett (#2 PF, Level 2), Glen Davis (#59 PF, Level 10)
2010 - Kevin Garnett (#2 PF, Level 2), Glen Davis (#59 PF, Level 10)

The Celtics head into 2010 with the same two-deep plan at power forward.  Davis had some excellent flashes of skill during the Finals.

Center
2009 - Kendrick Perkins (#19 C, Level 5), Rasheed Wallace (#35 C, Level 7)
2010 - Kendrick Perkins (#19 C, Level 5, Shaquille O'Neal (#21 C, Level 5), Jermaine O'Neal (#15, Level 4)

Because of the Perkins injury the Celtics had some work to do to solidify the center position.  They did so by adding the two O'Neals.  I was quite surprised when I did the calculations and saw Jermaine's numbers.  His regular season last year was much more respectable than I thought.

Overall
After winning the Atlantic division with a 50-32 record the Celtics really started to excel in the playoffs, exactly how Doc Rivers planned it.  I expect them to approach the regular season in a similar way in 2010.  They'll have a lot of continuity, but with aging players I expect some of the skill to fade.  However, a consistent jump in Rondo's play could make up for it.  According to my formula, they stay the same at point guard, small forward and power forward.  They'll pick up a win at center and lose one at shooting guard.  I think Rondo's evolution and a bad division will be good for an additional win.

In the final verdict the Celtics are BETTER.  As they are now I predict their record to be 51-31.