Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings

Yesterday I posted my mid-season rankings of NBA small forwards.  I know that NBA fans who don't believe in such detailed statistical analysis will scoff at such rankings, especially when they see Carmelo Anthony ranked just one spot above Matt Barnes.  But to me these rankings tell a majority of the story about how a player is producing and where he ranks among other NBA players.  Notice I said a majority of the story.  Do I think Tayshaun Prince is better than Carmelo?  No.  But I do think the stats provide a very strong base for starting those types of discussions.  I also think they are a good vehicle for tracking player trends.

Photo source: CT Snow, via Wikimedia Commons

So, with that said, here are my observations:

• As I mentioned yesterday, I find it very interesting that Carmelo is ranked one notch below Wilson Chandler.  For obvious reasons there has been a lot of discussion about Carmelo's value.  Henry Abbott does a great job of analyzing Carmelo's value on ESPN's TrueHoop blog.  The key category that pushes Chandler ahead of Carmelo is the Offensive Rating, or points per 100 possessions.  Carmelo beats out Chandler in each of the four other categories.
• No surprise that LeBron tops the list.  He leads in three of the five categories.  He finished the 2009-10 season in first as well. 
• Paul Pierce has had a great season so far.  I'm surprised how close he is to LeBron.  Those two are clearly a level above the rest.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Rudy Gay, Mike Dunleavy and Shawne Williams.
• I questioned the Grizzlies' signing of Gay to a max deal but he really has produced so far this season.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Gerald Wallace, Nicolas Batum and Corey Maggette.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 rankings are C.J. Miles (up 36), Chris Douglas-Roberts (up 32) and Wilson Chandler (up 28).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 rankings are Jamario Moon (down 36), Corey Maggette (down 21) and Travis Outlaw (down 20).
• Paul George is the highest rated rookie at 28.
• New Jersey and Cleveland are getting the worst production from the small forward position.  New Jersey has Travis Outlaw ranked 53rd and Stephen Graham ranked 57th.  Cleveland has Jamario Moon ranked at 54.

What jumps out at you from the small forward rankings?  Share your observations by posting a comment below.

Memphis Grizzlies - Better or Worse

In most seasons Memphis would have gotten all the pub as a hugely improved team.  But with the Thunder's win total jumping by 27 in 2009-10 the Grizzlies' season over season gain of 16 wins didn't cause the waves it would have otherwise.  Still, it was a marked improvement for a team that had only accumulated 68 wins over the previous three seasons.  That's especially true when you consider that Memphis was 35-32 after the "Allen Iverson Experiment" crashed and burned.  The Grizzlies made minimal moves in the offseason so they'll rely predominantly on player development for a better season in 2010-11.  Will that be enough?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: Rennett Stowe

Point Guard
2009 - Mike Conley (#35 PG, Level 7), Marcus Williams (#65 PG, Below level)
2010 - Mike Conley (#35 PG, Level 7), Acie Law (Not enough minutes to qualify)

This may be the season that Conley has to prove that he can be a better than average point guard.  The biggest problem with Conley is that he has not really improved statistically over the course of his three years in the NBA.  I think that means he is who he is.  I don't expect Law to deliver any meaningful contributions off the bench.  Net wins - 0.

Shooting Guard
2009 - O.J. Mayo (#28 SG, Level 6), Ronnie Brewer (#32 SG, Level 7)
2010 - O.J. Mayo (#28 SG, Level 6), Tony Allen (#25 SG, Level 6)

He's been tagged as having some type of breakout season last year, but in reality Mayo was not that productive.  He did improve his field-goal shooting percentage.  Most of his other statistics were relatively flat.  Allen is an excellent defender and can dunk.  He's very awkward on offense though.  I'll give a slight uptick here for the addition of Allen but I'm not sold that Mayo is interested in getting better.  Net wins - 1/2.

Small Forward
2009 - Rudy Gay (#13 SF, Level 4), Sam Young (#58 SG, Level 9)
2010 - Rudy Gay (#13 SF, Level 4), Sam Young (#58 SG, Level 9)

I don't mean to sound like a broke record, it's just the truth.  Here's another story of a player who's career arc has been essentially flat over the past few years.  In fact, last season Gay put up the lowest three-point shooting percentage of his four years in the NBA.  He leveraged a pretty good season when compared to other NBA small forwards into a max contract.  Young was a decent reserve in his rookie year.  Now that Gay has his big contract I think he's going to slide back a touch.  Net losses - 1/2.

Power Forward
2009 - Zach Randolph (#9 PF, Level 3), DeMarre Carroll (#68 PF, Below level)
2010 - Zach Randolph (#9 PF, Level 3), Darrell Arthur (Not enough minutes to qualify)

In a huge surprise, Randolph had one of the most productive seasons of his 9-year career.  He put up nearly 21 points and 12 rebounds while playing 38 minutes per game over 81 games.  It was a great year and one from which I think he can only go down from in 2010-11.  Arthur is really an unknown at this point.  Net losses - 1.

Center
2009 - Marc Gasol (#10 C, Level 3), Hasheem Thabeet (#30 C, Level 6)
2010 - Marc Gasol (#10 C, Level 3), Hasheem Thabeet (#30 C, Level 6)

Gasol was excellent last season, shooting 58 percent from the field and earning his way to a top 10 ranking among NBA centers.  Thabeet took a lot of heat early in his rookie season for being sent down to the D-League.  When all was said and done he was not horrible.  I like the potential for Gasol's continued development this season.  Net wins - 1.

Overall
Three areas where the Grizzlies really struggled in 2009-10 were three-point shooting, assists and turnovers.  They did nothing to improve any of those three areas with the possible exception of the drafting of Xavier Henry helping them behind the arc.  With the mix of players they have I see dissension written all over this team in 2010-11.  They also will not be able to sneak up on their opponents.

The Grizzlies finished last season at 40-42.  As noted above, I have them adding one win at center and half a win at shooting guard while staying even at point guard and losing one win at power forward and half a win at small forward.

In the final verdict Memphis is the SAME.  As they are currently constructed I project that they will again finish 40-42.

Am I being too harsh on the Grizzlies?  Will their young players break out this season?  Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.

NBA Small Forwards 2010 Rankings Analysis

Photo Source: Craig Hatfield

Yesterday I posted the cumulative rankings of NBA small forwards based on their play in the 2009-2010 season using the combination of five different statistical evaluations.  Below are my thoughts on the rankings.

• Unlike the point guard and shooting guard rankings there is quite a bit of space between the top 10.  It is not as easy to group them into levels because of that spacing.
• One thing is for sure - LeBron James and Kevin Durant dominated the categories.  LeBron ranked first in three categories, second in one and third in the other.  Durant was second in three categories, fourth in one and eighth in the other.
• I am shocked to see Andrei Kirilenko finish third.  He was very well rounded ranking as high as third and no lower than seventh in the five categories.
• Other positive surprises are: Nicolas Batum, Matt Barnes, Dorell Wright and Jared Dudley.
• I was disappointed by the rankings of: Carmelo Anthony, Caron Butler and Hedo Turkoglu.
• Nicolas Batum finished first in Offensive Ranking, but that may be do in part to the fact that he only played in 37 games.
• Gerald Wallace finished first in Defensive Ranking.
• Based on these rankings the signing of Matt Barnes by the Lakers for two years and $3.6 million looks like an absolute steal.  In fact, he finished 14 spots ahead of Ron Artest.
• While it's hard to disagree that the Warriors appear to be a train wreck with no direction, their signing of Dorell Wright was an excellent decision.
• I know Memphis was stuck between a rock and hard place in regards to Rudy Gay, but it's hard not to argue that the five years and $82 million they committed to the 13th ranked small forward in the league is too much.

What player rankings surprise you the most?