Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings

I posted my mid-season NBA power forward rankings earlier in the week - here are my observations on those rankings:

Photo source: bridgetds

• Pau Gasol continues to stay on top of the power forward rankings.  He was first in my final power forward rankings for the 2009-10 season as well.  However, Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett have closed the gap.  Gasol finished 25 points ahead of Garnett and 26 points ahead of Nowitzki in 09-10.  Through mid-season 10-11 he's only 14 ahead of Nowitzki and 16 ahead of Garnett.
• Gasol is in first despite not leading any single category.  Kevin Love has the best PER and Estimated Wins Added.  Nowitzki has the best Simple Rating.  Garnett has the best Defensive Rating.  Oddly, Matt Bonner leads in Offensive Rating.
• There's a large third level with Love, David West, Chris Bosh, Lamar Odom, Zach Randolph and Carlos Boozer all within seven points of each other.
• Ryan Anderson presents an interesting case.  I don't think anyone really believes he's the fourth best power forward in the NBA.  However, he's in the top 10 in all categories except for Estimated Wins Added.  That raises the key point with Anderson - with an average of less than 20 minutes per game his playing time is well below that of everybody in the top 15.
• The biggest positive surprises to me, beyond Anderson, are David West, Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young and Kris Humphries.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Josh Smith, Jeff Green and Al Harrington.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 09-10 rankings are Thaddeus Young (up 41), Kris Humphries (up 31) and Elton Brand (up 26).
• Young has boosted his PER from 14.08 to 17.96, his Simple Rating from -1.8 to 3.7, his Offensive Rating from 102 to 113 and his Defensive Rating from 111 to 105.
• Those who've fallen the most are Nick Collison (down 33), Dante Cunningham (down 30) and Shelden Williams (down 30).
• Blake Griffin is the highest rated rookie at 11th.  Greg Monroe and Ed Davis, who are tied for 41st, are the next rookies in the rankings.
• The two teams getting the least production from the power forward position are the Wizards and Nuggets.  Washington has Rashard Lewis at 46, Andray Blatche at 55 and Yi Jianlian at 72.  Denver has Kenyon Martin at 51, Al Harrington at 63 and Shelden Williams at 64.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings

Through the first half of the 2010-11 NBA season Pau Gasol is the leader in production among power forwards. The top three, with Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett joining Gasol, are the same top three from the 2009-10 season. But, the order has changed and the gaps have changed.

Gasol finished first in the 2009-10 NBA power forward rankings by a wide margin.  Garnett was second and Nowitzki third.

To see the additional details on my ranking process for the 2010-11 season check out my mid-season small forward rankings.  Through January 31 here are the power forward rankings: 

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O Rat. Rank D Rat. Rank Totals Final . Pau Gasol, LAL 23.43 4 10.4 2 12.1 2 122 7 103 20 35 1 . Dirk Nowitzki, DAL 23.55 2 7.7 7 13.6 1 115 15 104 24 49 2 . Kevin Garnett, BOS 21.66 9 5.8 14 10.9 3 112 24 94 1 51 3 . Ryan Anderson, ORL 21.9 8 2.8 26 10.1 4 124 4 101 9 51 3 . Kevin Love, MIN 24.93 1 11.5 1 8.9 5 124 4 108 51 62 5 . David West, NO 20.98 10 7.7 7 7.6 9 111 28 101 9 63 6 . Chris Bosh, MIA 20.03 14 6.3 11 8.6 6 114 16 102 16 63 6 . Lamar Odom, LAL 20.51 11 7.1 9 6 13 122 7 104 24 64 8 . Zach Randolph, MEM 22.21 6 8.6 5 7.6 9 112 24 104 24 68 9 . Carlos Boozer, CHI 22.17 7 4.9 16 7.2 11 109 33 97 2 69 10 . Blake Griffin, LAC 22.91 5 9.8 4 8 8 112 24 107 45 86 11 . LaMarcus Aldridge, POR 20.34 12 8.1 6 8.4 7 110 29 106 35 89 12 . Elton Brand, PHI 18.6 18 5.5 15 2.2 25 114 16 103 20 94 13 . Amare Stoudemire, NY 23.55 2 10.2 3 5.2 15 109 33 107 45 98 14 . Paul Millsap, UTAH 20.28 13 6.8 10 1.1 28 114 16 106 35 102 15 . Thaddeus Young, PHI 17.96 20 4.2 17 3.7 18 113 21 105 29 105 16 . Josh Smith, ATL 18.82 17 6.1 13 6 13 102 59 100 7 109 17 . Kris Humphries, NJ 17.85 22 3.9 19 1.1 28 114 16 104 24 109 17 . Brandon Bass, ORL 16.91 24 3.1 24 2.5 22 113 21 103 20 111 19 . Tyrus Thomas, CHA 19.73 15 3 25 6.2 12 103 53 100 7 112 20 . Amir Johnson, TOR 18.1 19 4 18 3.9 17 125 2 110 62 118 21 . Serge Ibaka, OKC 17.93 21 3.8 20 -0.5 37 122 7 106 35 120 22 . Marcus Camby, POR 16.27 28 2.7 28 1.9 26 106 43 99 5 130 23 . Luis Scola, HOU 19.31 16 6.3 11 3.6 19 108 39 109 56 141 24 . Matt Bonner, SA 14.05 45 1 46 2.4 23 130 1 106 35 150 25 . Anderson Varejao, CLE 15.23 37 1.8 34 4.4 16 113 21 108 51 159 26 . Ersan Ilyasova, MIL 14.27 44 1.5 38 2.3 24 105 50 101 9 165 27 . DeJuan Blair, SA 16.42 27 2.8 26 -5.9 61 104 51 99 5 170 28 . Chris Wilcox, DET 16.13 29 0.9 49 1.8 27 114 16 108 51 172 29 . Danilo Gallinari, NY 15.56 34 3.3 23 -1.2 42 125 2 112 71 172 29 . Josh McRoberts, IND 14.78 40 1.2 43 -1.8 47 110 29 102 16 175 31 . Tyler Hansbrough, IND 15.96 31 1.1 44 -1.2 42 109 33 105 29 179 32 . Hakim Warrick, PHX 17.02 23 2.3 30 -1 41 116 14 112 71 179 32 . Darrell Arthur, MEM 15.41 36 1.8 34 -2.1 50 109 33 105 29 182 34 . Craig Smith, LAC 15.46 35 0.7 50 0.3 32 117 12 110 62 191 35 . Charlie Villanueva, DET 15.97 30 2.5 29 -0.6 38 108 39 109 56 192 36 . Taj Gibson, CHI 13.48 49 1.4 40 -1.3 44 100 64 97 2 199 37 . Drew Gooden, MIL 15.88 32 1.3 42 -4.3 57 102 59 101 9 199 37 . Jon Brockman, MIL 9.45 70 -0.2 67 0.6 30 117 12 103 20 199 37 . Antawn Jamison, CLE 16.81 25 3.6 22 0.6 30 103 53 111 69 199 37 . Greg Monroe, DET 14.62 41 1.6 37 -3.5 54 112 24 107 45 201 41 . Ed Davis, TOR 15.68 33 1.4 40 -6 62 124 4 110 62 201 41 . Udonis Haslem, MIA 12.88 53 0.2 61 -2.4 51 110 29 101 9 203 43 . Joey Dorsey, TOR 14.58 42 0.6 53 -0.2 34 106 43 106 35 207 44 . Carl Landry, SAC 15.2 38 2.3 30 -1.4 45 109 33 110 62 208 45 . Glen Davis, BOS 13.13 50 1.1 44 -2 49 102 59 101 9 211 46 . Rashard Lewis, WAS 12.85 54 1 46 0 33 106 43 106 35 211 46 . Michael Beasley, MIN 16.73 26 3.7 21 -0.7 40 103 53 112 71 211 46 . Boris Diaw, CHA 13.67 48 1.7 36 -0.2 34 106 43 108 51 212 49 . Tiago Splitter, SA 13.72 47 0.6 53 -7 68 109 33 102 16 217 50 . Kenyon Martin, DEN 12.61 60 0.2 61 3.1 20 106 43 106 35 219 51 . Derrick Favors, NJ 13.78 46 1 46 -1.8 47 110 29 108 51 219 51 . Derrick Brown, CHA 12.42 62 0.4 56 2.7 21 106 43 107 45 227 53 . DeMarcus Cousins, SAC 14.86 39 2 32 -5.6 59 95 69 105 29 228 54 . Andray Blatche, WSH 14.4 43 2 32 -1.4 45 95 69 107 45 234 55 . Antonio McDyess, SA 12.52 61 0.4 56 -4.1 56 103 53 101 9 235 56 . Brian Cook, LAC 13.08 51 0.2 61 -0.4 36 107 42 107 45 235 56 . Reggie Evans, TOR 12.99 52 0.3 58 -4 55 106 43 105 29 237 58 . Nick Collison, OKC 10.77 67 -0.3 69 -0.6 38 118 11 109 56 241 59 . Brian Cardinal, DAL 10.1 69 -0.2 67 -8.7 72 120 10 105 29 247 60 . Larry Sanders, MIL 12.68 59 0.3 58 -4.6 58 94 72 98 4 251 61 . Jeff Green, OKC 12.8 56 1.5 38 -6.2 64 108 39 110 62 259 62 . Al Harrington, DEN 12.82 55 0.7 50 -3.3 53 103 53 109 56 267 63 . Shelden Williams, DEN 12.22 63 0.2 61 -6 62 104 51 106 35 272 64 . Jason Smith, NO 10.51 68 -0.4 70 -2.8 52 96 67 102 16 273 65 . Andres Nocioni, PHI 11.22 65 0.2 61 -6.8 66 102 59 106 35 286 66 . J.J. Hickson, CLE 12.73 57 0.7 50 -5.8 60 90 73 109 56 296 67 . Gary Forbes, DEN 12.73 57 0.5 55 -8.6 71 103 53 110 62 298 68 . Juwan Howard, MIA 7.48 73 -0.8 71 -9.3 74 98 65 104 24 307 69 . Dante Cunningham, POR 9.08 71 -0.8 71 -8.3 69 98 65 106 35 311 70 . Jordan Hill, HOU 11.49 64 0.3 58 -8.3 69 102 59 110 62 312 71 . Yi Jianlian, WSH 11.13 66 -0.1 66 -6.6 65 95 69 109 56 322 72 . Jason Maxiell, DET 8.24 72 -0.9 73 -9.2 73 96 67 111 69 354 73 . Jawad Williams, CLE 4.79 74 -1.2 74 -6.8 66 81 74 114 74 362 74

I'll be following up in the next couple of days with my observations on the rankings.  Feel free to post your thoughts below in the comments section.

NBA Power Forwards 2010 Rankings Analysis

Yesterday I posted the cumulative rankings of NBA power forwards based on their play in the 2009-2010 season when combining five different types of statistical analysis.  Here are my thoughts on the rankings.

• I mentioned it on the rankings post, but I have to mention it again, I was surprised at the wide margin by which Pau Gasol beat the field.  That is by far the biggest difference between first and second at any of the five positions.  Interestingly, Gasol did not finish first in any of the five categories.  In fact, his highest category ranking was third.
• The rest of the power forward pack is quite close.  Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki are neck and neck for second and third with Josh Smith right behind them.
• The category winners are Chris Bosh in PER, Amir Johnson in Offensive Rating, Tyrus Thomas in Defensive Rating, Josh Smith in WARP and Dirk Nowitzki in Simple Rating.  This is the only position in which a different player won each category.
• Guys that ranked higher than I expected - Marcus Camby, Ryan Anderson, Troy Murphy and Matt Bonner.
• Ranking lower than my expectations are - Chris Bosh, Rashard Lewis and Jeff Green.
• I was really surprised by Jeff Green's ranking.  I thought I had heard good things about him and I figured that with the Thunder excelling Green must have been playing a big part.  Add in the fact that he is competing for a spot on Team USA and I thought he must have had a good year.  Boy was I wrong.
• It's worth noting that Chris Bosh was really hurt by his Defensive Rating.  He was 62nd in the category.  In the other categories he finished first, second twice and seventh.  I highly doubt he'll have the same poor Defensive Rating next season.
• I was shocked to see how far Rashard Lewis has fallen.  His final rank of 36th can be attributed to an all-around poorly played season. 
• There are a number of guys on this list that will be asked to really step up next season like Kevin Love, Amir Johnson, Tyrus Thomas, Andray Blatche and Danilo Gallinari.  It will be fun to watch to see if they are up to the task.

What are your biggest surprises?

NBA Power Forwards 2010 - Cumulative Rankings

Photo source: Boss Banks

Pau Gasol took the top spot in the NBA power forward rankings for the 2009-2010 season by a big margin.  It does surprise me to see the differentiation between his final score and the other top contenders at the position.  Within the next couple of days I will be posting my full analysis of the rankings.

(If you missed previous posts you should start with the NBA point guards cumulative rankings, which also includes the explanation of my evaluation process.)

Here are the power forward rankings (500+ minutes played) with their cumulative totals included for differentiation:

1. Pau Gasol, LAL 23
2. Kevin Garnett, BOS 48
3. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL 49
4. Josh Smith, ATL 52
5. Marcus Camby, POR 55
6. Carlos Boozer, UTA 58
7. Anderson Varejao, CLE 64
8. Chris Bosh, TOR 74
9. Zach Randolph, MEM 76
10. Amare Stoudemire, PHO 76
11. Kevin Love, MIN 93
12. Lamar Odom, LAL 93
13. Paul Millsap, UTH 94
14. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR 97
15. Ryan Anderson, ORL 100
16. Troy Murphy, IND 103
17. Carl Landry, SAC 120
18. DeJuan Blair, SAS 122
19. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL 124
20. Matt Bonner, SAS 126
21. Amir Johnson, TOR 126
22. Tyrus Thomas, CHA 128
23. David West, NOR 128
24. Antawn Jamison, CLE 131
25. Brandon Bass, ORL 150
26. Nick Collison, OKC 151
27. Andray Blatche, WAS 154
28. Craig Smith, LAC 155
29. Luis Scola, HOU 156
30. Udonis Haslem, MIA 159
31. Serge Ibaka, OKC 159
32. Anthony Randolph, NYK 164
33. Josh McRoberts, IND 167
34. Shelden Williams, BOS 169
35. Rashard Lewis, ORL 173
36. Drew Gooden, LAC 175
37. Danilo Gallinari, NYK 177
38. Michael Beasley, MIA 180
39. Elton Brand, PHI 182
40. Dante Cunningham, POR 187
41. Taj Gibson, CHI 191
42. Hakim Warrick, CHI 193
43. Boris Diaw, CHA 194
44. J.J. Hickson, CLE 196
45. Jordan Hill, HOU 199
46. Jonas Jerebko, DET 204
47. Al Harrington, NYK 204
48. Kris Humphries, NJN 206
49. Kenyon Martin, DEN 215
50. Jeff Green, OKC 218
51. Jon Brockman, SAC 223
52. Derrick Brown, CHA 226
53. Antonio McDyess, SAS 228
54. Charlie Villanueva, DET 229
55. Tyler Hansbrough, IND 238
56. Jason Maxiell, DET 238
57. Thaddeus Young, PHI 270
58. Chris Hunter, GSW 276
59. Glen Davis, BOS 276
60. James Singleton, WAS 279
61. Yi Jianlian, NJN 284
62. Joe Smith, ATL 288
63. Juwan Howard, POR 289
64. Jared Jeffries, HOU 299
65. Darius Songaila, NOR 301
66. Jawad Williams, CLE 302
67. Andres Nocioni, SAC 321
68. DeMarre Carroll, MEM 324

What are your thoughts on the power forward rankings?  Feel free to share them in the comments section below.