NBA Eastern Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

With NBA All Star weekend coming up I want to take a look at the players that I think should be on the Eastern Conference roster.  I'm basing this roster on my mid-season player rankings.  You can find the formula for the ranking system on the 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.

Photo source: David Jones

Here are the five players that I think earned a starting spot:
G: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
F: Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
C: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

My starting lineup only has one different player from the starters the fans chose.  I have Paul Pierce starting at the forward spot over Amare Stoudamire.

Here are the seven additional Eastern Conference players that I think are worthy of being All Stars:
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
G: Ray Allen, Boston Celtics
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
F: Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
C: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
F: Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls

As you can see, I don't even have Stoudamire on the Eastern Conference All Star roster.  A peek at my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings shows you why - Stoudamire is the 14th most productive power forward in the NBA through the first half of the season.  Boozer has been the 10th most productive power forward.

The other roster difference is that I have Noah in place of Joe Johnson.  Johnson finished a very respectable seventh in my mid-season shooting guard rankings but Andre Iguodala, who finished fifth on those same rankings, would have been the next guard in line.  When matched up head-to-head in the five statistical analysis categories I like to use, Noah wins three (PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating) to Johnson's two (Estimated Wins Added and Simple Rating).

Overall, Sunday night's Eastern Conference roster is pretty close to the group I think should be playing.  Ultimately, I don't have an issue with Stoudamire making the team based on his full season contribution to the Knicks versus Boozer and Noah, who both missed significant time.  I do think that one of those Bulls frontliners should have made the team over Johnson.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings

I posted my mid-season NBA power forward rankings earlier in the week - here are my observations on those rankings:

Photo source: bridgetds

• Pau Gasol continues to stay on top of the power forward rankings.  He was first in my final power forward rankings for the 2009-10 season as well.  However, Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett have closed the gap.  Gasol finished 25 points ahead of Garnett and 26 points ahead of Nowitzki in 09-10.  Through mid-season 10-11 he's only 14 ahead of Nowitzki and 16 ahead of Garnett.
• Gasol is in first despite not leading any single category.  Kevin Love has the best PER and Estimated Wins Added.  Nowitzki has the best Simple Rating.  Garnett has the best Defensive Rating.  Oddly, Matt Bonner leads in Offensive Rating.
• There's a large third level with Love, David West, Chris Bosh, Lamar Odom, Zach Randolph and Carlos Boozer all within seven points of each other.
• Ryan Anderson presents an interesting case.  I don't think anyone really believes he's the fourth best power forward in the NBA.  However, he's in the top 10 in all categories except for Estimated Wins Added.  That raises the key point with Anderson - with an average of less than 20 minutes per game his playing time is well below that of everybody in the top 15.
• The biggest positive surprises to me, beyond Anderson, are David West, Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young and Kris Humphries.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Josh Smith, Jeff Green and Al Harrington.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 09-10 rankings are Thaddeus Young (up 41), Kris Humphries (up 31) and Elton Brand (up 26).
• Young has boosted his PER from 14.08 to 17.96, his Simple Rating from -1.8 to 3.7, his Offensive Rating from 102 to 113 and his Defensive Rating from 111 to 105.
• Those who've fallen the most are Nick Collison (down 33), Dante Cunningham (down 30) and Shelden Williams (down 30).
• Blake Griffin is the highest rated rookie at 11th.  Greg Monroe and Ed Davis, who are tied for 41st, are the next rookies in the rankings.
• The two teams getting the least production from the power forward position are the Wizards and Nuggets.  Washington has Rashard Lewis at 46, Andray Blatche at 55 and Yi Jianlian at 72.  Denver has Kenyon Martin at 51, Al Harrington at 63 and Shelden Williams at 64.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings

Through the first half of the 2010-11 NBA season Pau Gasol is the leader in production among power forwards. The top three, with Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett joining Gasol, are the same top three from the 2009-10 season. But, the order has changed and the gaps have changed.

Gasol finished first in the 2009-10 NBA power forward rankings by a wide margin.  Garnett was second and Nowitzki third.

To see the additional details on my ranking process for the 2010-11 season check out my mid-season small forward rankings.  Through January 31 here are the power forward rankings: 

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O Rat. Rank D Rat. Rank Totals Final . Pau Gasol, LAL 23.43 4 10.4 2 12.1 2 122 7 103 20 35 1 . Dirk Nowitzki, DAL 23.55 2 7.7 7 13.6 1 115 15 104 24 49 2 . Kevin Garnett, BOS 21.66 9 5.8 14 10.9 3 112 24 94 1 51 3 . Ryan Anderson, ORL 21.9 8 2.8 26 10.1 4 124 4 101 9 51 3 . Kevin Love, MIN 24.93 1 11.5 1 8.9 5 124 4 108 51 62 5 . David West, NO 20.98 10 7.7 7 7.6 9 111 28 101 9 63 6 . Chris Bosh, MIA 20.03 14 6.3 11 8.6 6 114 16 102 16 63 6 . Lamar Odom, LAL 20.51 11 7.1 9 6 13 122 7 104 24 64 8 . Zach Randolph, MEM 22.21 6 8.6 5 7.6 9 112 24 104 24 68 9 . Carlos Boozer, CHI 22.17 7 4.9 16 7.2 11 109 33 97 2 69 10 . Blake Griffin, LAC 22.91 5 9.8 4 8 8 112 24 107 45 86 11 . LaMarcus Aldridge, POR 20.34 12 8.1 6 8.4 7 110 29 106 35 89 12 . Elton Brand, PHI 18.6 18 5.5 15 2.2 25 114 16 103 20 94 13 . Amare Stoudemire, NY 23.55 2 10.2 3 5.2 15 109 33 107 45 98 14 . Paul Millsap, UTAH 20.28 13 6.8 10 1.1 28 114 16 106 35 102 15 . Thaddeus Young, PHI 17.96 20 4.2 17 3.7 18 113 21 105 29 105 16 . Josh Smith, ATL 18.82 17 6.1 13 6 13 102 59 100 7 109 17 . Kris Humphries, NJ 17.85 22 3.9 19 1.1 28 114 16 104 24 109 17 . Brandon Bass, ORL 16.91 24 3.1 24 2.5 22 113 21 103 20 111 19 . Tyrus Thomas, CHA 19.73 15 3 25 6.2 12 103 53 100 7 112 20 . Amir Johnson, TOR 18.1 19 4 18 3.9 17 125 2 110 62 118 21 . Serge Ibaka, OKC 17.93 21 3.8 20 -0.5 37 122 7 106 35 120 22 . Marcus Camby, POR 16.27 28 2.7 28 1.9 26 106 43 99 5 130 23 . Luis Scola, HOU 19.31 16 6.3 11 3.6 19 108 39 109 56 141 24 . Matt Bonner, SA 14.05 45 1 46 2.4 23 130 1 106 35 150 25 . Anderson Varejao, CLE 15.23 37 1.8 34 4.4 16 113 21 108 51 159 26 . Ersan Ilyasova, MIL 14.27 44 1.5 38 2.3 24 105 50 101 9 165 27 . DeJuan Blair, SA 16.42 27 2.8 26 -5.9 61 104 51 99 5 170 28 . Chris Wilcox, DET 16.13 29 0.9 49 1.8 27 114 16 108 51 172 29 . Danilo Gallinari, NY 15.56 34 3.3 23 -1.2 42 125 2 112 71 172 29 . Josh McRoberts, IND 14.78 40 1.2 43 -1.8 47 110 29 102 16 175 31 . Tyler Hansbrough, IND 15.96 31 1.1 44 -1.2 42 109 33 105 29 179 32 . Hakim Warrick, PHX 17.02 23 2.3 30 -1 41 116 14 112 71 179 32 . Darrell Arthur, MEM 15.41 36 1.8 34 -2.1 50 109 33 105 29 182 34 . Craig Smith, LAC 15.46 35 0.7 50 0.3 32 117 12 110 62 191 35 . Charlie Villanueva, DET 15.97 30 2.5 29 -0.6 38 108 39 109 56 192 36 . Taj Gibson, CHI 13.48 49 1.4 40 -1.3 44 100 64 97 2 199 37 . Drew Gooden, MIL 15.88 32 1.3 42 -4.3 57 102 59 101 9 199 37 . Jon Brockman, MIL 9.45 70 -0.2 67 0.6 30 117 12 103 20 199 37 . Antawn Jamison, CLE 16.81 25 3.6 22 0.6 30 103 53 111 69 199 37 . Greg Monroe, DET 14.62 41 1.6 37 -3.5 54 112 24 107 45 201 41 . Ed Davis, TOR 15.68 33 1.4 40 -6 62 124 4 110 62 201 41 . Udonis Haslem, MIA 12.88 53 0.2 61 -2.4 51 110 29 101 9 203 43 . Joey Dorsey, TOR 14.58 42 0.6 53 -0.2 34 106 43 106 35 207 44 . Carl Landry, SAC 15.2 38 2.3 30 -1.4 45 109 33 110 62 208 45 . Glen Davis, BOS 13.13 50 1.1 44 -2 49 102 59 101 9 211 46 . Rashard Lewis, WAS 12.85 54 1 46 0 33 106 43 106 35 211 46 . Michael Beasley, MIN 16.73 26 3.7 21 -0.7 40 103 53 112 71 211 46 . Boris Diaw, CHA 13.67 48 1.7 36 -0.2 34 106 43 108 51 212 49 . Tiago Splitter, SA 13.72 47 0.6 53 -7 68 109 33 102 16 217 50 . Kenyon Martin, DEN 12.61 60 0.2 61 3.1 20 106 43 106 35 219 51 . Derrick Favors, NJ 13.78 46 1 46 -1.8 47 110 29 108 51 219 51 . Derrick Brown, CHA 12.42 62 0.4 56 2.7 21 106 43 107 45 227 53 . DeMarcus Cousins, SAC 14.86 39 2 32 -5.6 59 95 69 105 29 228 54 . Andray Blatche, WSH 14.4 43 2 32 -1.4 45 95 69 107 45 234 55 . Antonio McDyess, SA 12.52 61 0.4 56 -4.1 56 103 53 101 9 235 56 . Brian Cook, LAC 13.08 51 0.2 61 -0.4 36 107 42 107 45 235 56 . Reggie Evans, TOR 12.99 52 0.3 58 -4 55 106 43 105 29 237 58 . Nick Collison, OKC 10.77 67 -0.3 69 -0.6 38 118 11 109 56 241 59 . Brian Cardinal, DAL 10.1 69 -0.2 67 -8.7 72 120 10 105 29 247 60 . Larry Sanders, MIL 12.68 59 0.3 58 -4.6 58 94 72 98 4 251 61 . Jeff Green, OKC 12.8 56 1.5 38 -6.2 64 108 39 110 62 259 62 . Al Harrington, DEN 12.82 55 0.7 50 -3.3 53 103 53 109 56 267 63 . Shelden Williams, DEN 12.22 63 0.2 61 -6 62 104 51 106 35 272 64 . Jason Smith, NO 10.51 68 -0.4 70 -2.8 52 96 67 102 16 273 65 . Andres Nocioni, PHI 11.22 65 0.2 61 -6.8 66 102 59 106 35 286 66 . J.J. Hickson, CLE 12.73 57 0.7 50 -5.8 60 90 73 109 56 296 67 . Gary Forbes, DEN 12.73 57 0.5 55 -8.6 71 103 53 110 62 298 68 . Juwan Howard, MIA 7.48 73 -0.8 71 -9.3 74 98 65 104 24 307 69 . Dante Cunningham, POR 9.08 71 -0.8 71 -8.3 69 98 65 106 35 311 70 . Jordan Hill, HOU 11.49 64 0.3 58 -8.3 69 102 59 110 62 312 71 . Yi Jianlian, WSH 11.13 66 -0.1 66 -6.6 65 95 69 109 56 322 72 . Jason Maxiell, DET 8.24 72 -0.9 73 -9.2 73 96 67 111 69 354 73 . Jawad Williams, CLE 4.79 74 -1.2 74 -6.8 66 81 74 114 74 362 74

I'll be following up in the next couple of days with my observations on the rankings.  Feel free to post your thoughts below in the comments section.

Boston Celtics - Early Season Returns

The Celtics have gotten off to a solid 6-2 start and lead the rather weak Atlantic Division.  They suffered a bad loss at Cleveland in their second game but the other loss was at Dallas, certainly respectable.  They also have a couple of really good wins - Miami on opening night and at Oklahoma City.

Before the season I predicted the Celtics would finish 51-31.

Photo source: St. Groove

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 104.4 (20th in the NBA) [107.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 98.8 (3rd) [103.8 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 5.6 [3.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 97.9 (20th) [99.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 92.6 (5th) [95.6 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.3 [91.6 in 2009]

Player Stats

Rajon Rondo
Offensive Rating: 107 (111 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 96 (103)
PER: 20.7 (19.1)

Ray Allen
Offensive Rating: 107 (115)
Defensive Rating: 96 (108)
PER: 14.0 (15.2)

Paul Pierce
Offensive Rating: 113 (114)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 17.8 (18.2)

Kevin Garnett
Offensive Rating: 94 (112)
Defensive Rating: 93 (101)
PER: 15.8 (19.4)

Glen Davis
Offensive Rating: 120 (103)
Defensive Rating: 100 (106)
PER: 15.4 (11.5)

Shaquille O'Neal
Offensive Rating: 104 (104)
Defensive Rating: 101 (102)
PER: 13.7 (17.9)

Marquis Daniels
Offensive Rating: 116 (102)
Defensive Rating: 98 (107)
PER: 16.0 (9.6)

Jermaine O'Neal
Offensive Rating: 91 (108)
Defensive Rating: 97 (103)
PER: 9.1 (17.9)

Nate Robinson
Offensive Rating: 80 (104)
Defensive Rating: 105 (104)
PER: 2.4 (13.9)

Boston has excelled on the defensive end of the floor so far in 2010.  They've improved their Defensive Rating by five points over 2009-10.  The improvement is especially noticeable when Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen are on the floor.  Both have a Defensive Rating of 96.  Rondo improved from 103 and Allen from 108 last season.

Concerning for the Celtics is the drop in PER from the Big Three.  Paul Pierce's drop is a minimal 0.4 but Allen's is a more substantial 1.2 and Kevin Garnett's is a worrisome 3.6.  Garnett's field goal and free throw shooting percentages have dropped significantly over last season.  So has his assists rate even though he's playing more minutes.

The two O'Neal acquisitions have been somewhat of a letdown.  This is especially true for Jermaine whose PER has nearly been cut in half.  His shooting percentages have fallen even worse than Garnett's.

On the other hand, Glen Davis and Marquis Daniels have put in some excellent minutes off the bench.  Davis has a 20-point differential in his Offensive and Defensive Ratings while Daniels has an 18-point differential. 

Nate Robinson has struggled to provide productive minutes.  His 2.4 PER and -25 differential are atrocious.  Of course, he can't seem to throw the ball in the ocean.

What have you seen from the Celtics that you've liked or not liked so far this season?  What do you think they need to focus on to keep improving and earn a high seed in the playoffs?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Boston Celtics - Better or Worse?

The Celtics are coming off an excellent season where they took the Los Angeles Lakers to the brink during a thrilling, but odd, NBA Finals.  Heading into the offseason they were at a fork in the road.  The two options were to either make one more run or start to tear down and rebuild.  The Celtics chose to make another run and brought back coach Doc Rivers along with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce.  How do they look for 2010?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Rajon Rondo (#2 PG, Level 1), Nate Robinson (#34 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Rajon Rondo (#2 PG, Level 1), Nate Robinson (#34 PG, Level 6)

There will be no changes at the point guard position for the Celtics.  Rondo was a huge contributor in the playoffs and I think he can be expected to bear a bigger load for Boston.  Having Robinson from the beginning of the season will help as well.

Photo source: walknboston

Shooting Guard
2009 - Ray Allen (#6 SG, Level 3), Tony Allen (#25 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Ray Allen (#6 SG, Level 3), Delonte West (#21 SG, Level 5)

Ray Allen is back at shooting guard for the Celtics, but Tony Allen has taken the money and moved on to the Memphis Grizzlies.  Boston made a good move in bringing West in as the backup.  He can't be expected to be the stellar defender that Tony Allen was but he should add something on the offensive end, especially if he can get his three point percentage back up into the high 30s. 

Small Forward
2009 - Paul Pierce (#5 SF, Level 3)
2010 - Paul Pierce (#5 SF, Level 3)

Never was there a doubt that Pierce would resign with Boston. 

Power Forward
2009 - Kevin Garnett (#2 PF, Level 2), Glen Davis (#59 PF, Level 10)
2010 - Kevin Garnett (#2 PF, Level 2), Glen Davis (#59 PF, Level 10)

The Celtics head into 2010 with the same two-deep plan at power forward.  Davis had some excellent flashes of skill during the Finals.

Center
2009 - Kendrick Perkins (#19 C, Level 5), Rasheed Wallace (#35 C, Level 7)
2010 - Kendrick Perkins (#19 C, Level 5, Shaquille O'Neal (#21 C, Level 5), Jermaine O'Neal (#15, Level 4)

Because of the Perkins injury the Celtics had some work to do to solidify the center position.  They did so by adding the two O'Neals.  I was quite surprised when I did the calculations and saw Jermaine's numbers.  His regular season last year was much more respectable than I thought.

Overall
After winning the Atlantic division with a 50-32 record the Celtics really started to excel in the playoffs, exactly how Doc Rivers planned it.  I expect them to approach the regular season in a similar way in 2010.  They'll have a lot of continuity, but with aging players I expect some of the skill to fade.  However, a consistent jump in Rondo's play could make up for it.  According to my formula, they stay the same at point guard, small forward and power forward.  They'll pick up a win at center and lose one at shooting guard.  I think Rondo's evolution and a bad division will be good for an additional win.

In the final verdict the Celtics are BETTER.  As they are now I predict their record to be 51-31.