NBA Western Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

Yesterday I posted the roster I think should be representing the Eastern Conference in Sunday's NBA All Star Game.  Today I'm moving on to the Western Conference.  While there were only two roster spots that I would switch out in the East, I'd make twice as many changes in the West.

Photo source: johanohrling

Based on production and efficiency, here's my Western Conference starting five:
G: Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
G: Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
F: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F: Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
C: Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks

My Western Conference starting lineup only includes one of the same players as the starters that the fans voted into the game - Paul.  I'm picking Ginobili over Kobe Bryant at the other guard.  Check out my mid-season shooting guard rankings to see why. 

I've also got Nowitzki and Gasol over Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant at the forward positions.  At center I've got Chandler over Yao Ming, who is injured anyway.  Why Chandler?  Check out my mid-season center rankings where he is the top-rated center in the West.

As for the reserves, here are my seven:
G: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
G: Eric Gordon, Los Angeles Clippers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
C: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
F: David West, New Orleans Hornets
G: Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets

So not only would Anthony not start, he'd be left off my roster completely.  In fact, he's not even the next small forward in line - that would be Rudy Gay. 

Also controversial - I have Gordon and Martin making the team over Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams.  Sure it's hard to believe,but when you compare their production and efficiency Gordon and Martin come out on top.

The final difference is West making the team over Blake Griffin.  I love what Griffin is doing but West beats him out in my mid-season power forward rankings.  However, this one's hard to argue - Griffin is leading West in four of the five advanced statistical categories I include in my rankings.  It's West's huge advantage in Defensive Rating that puts him ahead of Griffin in the cumulative rankings.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings

I posted my mid-season NBA power forward rankings earlier in the week - here are my observations on those rankings:

Photo source: bridgetds

• Pau Gasol continues to stay on top of the power forward rankings.  He was first in my final power forward rankings for the 2009-10 season as well.  However, Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett have closed the gap.  Gasol finished 25 points ahead of Garnett and 26 points ahead of Nowitzki in 09-10.  Through mid-season 10-11 he's only 14 ahead of Nowitzki and 16 ahead of Garnett.
• Gasol is in first despite not leading any single category.  Kevin Love has the best PER and Estimated Wins Added.  Nowitzki has the best Simple Rating.  Garnett has the best Defensive Rating.  Oddly, Matt Bonner leads in Offensive Rating.
• There's a large third level with Love, David West, Chris Bosh, Lamar Odom, Zach Randolph and Carlos Boozer all within seven points of each other.
• Ryan Anderson presents an interesting case.  I don't think anyone really believes he's the fourth best power forward in the NBA.  However, he's in the top 10 in all categories except for Estimated Wins Added.  That raises the key point with Anderson - with an average of less than 20 minutes per game his playing time is well below that of everybody in the top 15.
• The biggest positive surprises to me, beyond Anderson, are David West, Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young and Kris Humphries.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Josh Smith, Jeff Green and Al Harrington.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 09-10 rankings are Thaddeus Young (up 41), Kris Humphries (up 31) and Elton Brand (up 26).
• Young has boosted his PER from 14.08 to 17.96, his Simple Rating from -1.8 to 3.7, his Offensive Rating from 102 to 113 and his Defensive Rating from 111 to 105.
• Those who've fallen the most are Nick Collison (down 33), Dante Cunningham (down 30) and Shelden Williams (down 30).
• Blake Griffin is the highest rated rookie at 11th.  Greg Monroe and Ed Davis, who are tied for 41st, are the next rookies in the rankings.
• The two teams getting the least production from the power forward position are the Wizards and Nuggets.  Washington has Rashard Lewis at 46, Andray Blatche at 55 and Yi Jianlian at 72.  Denver has Kenyon Martin at 51, Al Harrington at 63 and Shelden Williams at 64.

New Orleans Hornets - Better or Worse

After two really good years the Hornets took a step back last season.  Of course, a large reason for that slide into reverse was the injury that held Chris Paul to only 45 games played.  While he was out New Orleans was carried by the always steady David West and the play of two rookies, Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton.  The Hornets obviously thought enough of both of the guards to carry them on the roster but they could not have expected them to produce to the level that they did. 

The offseason was filled with much controversy as Chris Paul apparently demanded a trade but then did not.  This put brand new GM Dell Demps in the awkward position of trying to win now without the assets to do so.  He was able to pull off a trade, giving up new stallion Collison for the opportunity to unload James Posey's bad contract and get a good answer for a bad gap at small forward in Trevor Ariza.  What will 2010-11 hold for the Hornets?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: Mr. Littlehand

Point Guard
2009 - Chris Paul (#3 PG, Level 1), Darren Collison (#31 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Chris Paul (#3 PG, Level 1), Jerryd Bayless (#39 PG, Level 8)

I consider Paul a top 10 player when healthy and probably even top five.  His injury crushed New Orleans' chances in 2009-10.  Even while playing with the after effects Paul was able to put up the third most productive season among NBA point guards.  The loss of Collison will hurt a little but Bayless should be a good pickup who can add some additional scoring.  Net wins - 3.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Morris Peterson (#72 SG, Below level), Marcus Thornton (#20 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Marco Belinelli (#36 SG, Level 7), Marcus Thornton (#20 SG, Level 5)

Peterson was horrible last year while Thornton was a breath of fresh air.  He'll need to keep developing in 2010-11 if the Hornets are going to be in playoff contention.  Belinelli is a mystery.  He's shot 39% from behind the arc in three years of limited minutes.  Still, he's all but guaranteed to be more productive than Peterson.  Net wins - 2.

Small Forward
2009 - Peja Stojakovic (#41 SF, Level 9), Julian Wright (#42 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Trevor Ariza (#25 SF, Level 6), Peja Stojakovic (#41 SF, Level 9)

Houston soured on Ariza whose field-goal percentage dropped precipitously last season.  As they say, one man's trash is another man's treasure.  This is the case for Ariza, who fills a big hole in the New Orleans lineup.  Stojakovic should be more effective in smaller minutes as a long range shooter off the pine.  Net wins - 2.

Power Forward
2009 - David West (#23 PF, Level 5), Darius Songaila (#65 PF, Below level)
2010 - David West (#23 PF, Level 5), Jason Smith (Not enough minutes to rank)

West's numbers dropped slightly last season but it's due more to a decrease in minutes played than anything else.  Still, his curve is at the top and flat at best and heading downward at worst.  Smith is just a body.  Net losses - 1/2.

Center
2009 - Emeka Okafor (#25 C, Level 5)
2010 - Emeka Okafor (#25 C, Level 5), Aaron Gray (Not enough minutes to rank)

Okafor has played all 82 games in each of the last three seasons.  That's a positive.  The negative is that his production levels have decreased.  Gray was a productive back up in very limited minutes last season.  The trend continues with Okafor.  Net losses - 1/2.

Overall
I cannot emphasize enough how important Paul's health is for this team.  They have a handful of nice developmental pieces in Ariza, Thornton, Bayless and Belinelli.  If those four can continue to develop while West and Okafor maintain their levels of production then the Hornets should be in the running for the final Western Conference playoff spot.  Of course, the other thing to watch for is what happens with Paul.  If New Orleans struggles badly out of the gate then his eye will surely wander and Demps may want to seek out a trade to get the maximum value for such a huge asset.

The 2009-10 season ended with New Orleans at 37-45.  As I noted above, I have them adding three wins at point guard, two at shooting guard and two at small forward while dropping a half at power forward and a half at center.

In the final verdict the Hornets are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict they will post a 43-39 record this season.

What do you think?  Will the Hornets be better or worse this season?  How will that reflect on their record?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.