Deron Williams and Devin Harris - Performance Comparison

After putting together the 2010-11 performance comparison between Chauncey Billups and Raymond Felton I thought it would be interesting to compare some of the other point guards who were involved in trades.

Next up are Deron Williams and Devin Harris.  I was shocked by the abruptness of Utah's trade of Williams.  I certainly consider Williams to be one of the best point guards in the NBA.  While he was only sixth in my midseason point guard rankings for 2010-11, he was first in my 2009-10 full season point guard rankings.  However, I do think that the Jazz got a lot of value out of the trade.

I didn't expect the stats of Williams and Harris to be competitive, but I was curious to see how far apart they were.  Here's what the key statistics look like:

. Statistic Deron Williams Devin Harris . MPG 37.9 31.9 . PER 21.98 17.92 . EWA 11.4 6.1 . True S% 58.2 54.3 . 3FG% 33.6 30.2 . Ast/36 9.4 8.6 . Tur/36 3.3 3.3 . ORtg 115 108 . DRtg 112 111 . Opp PER 14.9 18.3 . On Ct/48 0.8 -5.9 . Off Ct/48 7.7 -8

Not surprisingly there is a rather large gap between the performances of Williams and Harris so far this season.  Williams is more than four points better in PER and has contributed five more wins than Harris has in 2010-11.

The only stat lines where Harris can compete with Williams are turnovers per 36 minutes and Defensive Rating.  However, when it comes to defense Williams is much better in Opponent's PER than Harris.

For the Nets the final grade on the trade for Deron Williams will come down to whether they are able to sign him to a contract extension.  I give them a lot of credit for having the courage to make this type of trade.  For the most part the writing is on the wall - a franchise will not win an NBA title in the near future without top flight superstars.  New Jersey decided the opportunity to add one of the best point guards in the game was worth the risk.

Chauncey Billups and Raymond Felton - Performance Comparison

The huge trade between the Knicks, Nuggets and Timberwolves that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York is now official.  While clearly the big headline is Carmelo getting the outcome he always wanted and the question of whether he can help make the Knicks a championship contender, one of the more interesting angles to me is the swap of Chauncey Billups and Raymond Felton.

Let's compare the performance of Billups and Felton so far this season and look at what Billups will bring to the Knicks that Felton did not.

. Statistic Chauncey Billups Raymond Felton . MPG 32.3 38.4 . PER 18.8 17.34 . EWA 6.4 6.5 . True S% 63.4 52.4 . 3FG% 44.1 32.8 . Ast/36 5.9 8.5 . Tur/36 2.8 3.1 . ORtg 120 108 . DRtg 112 111 . Opp PER 17.6 17.6 . On Ct/48 3.6 -0.2 . Off Ct/48 2.3 5

When you look at the statistics above you see that there has not been a large gap between the production levels of Billups and Felton.  Billups has a nice lead in PER at 18.8 to Felton's 17.34, but because of the advantage Felton has in minutes played his Estimated Wins Added of 6.5 beats out Billups by a whisker.

Billups has a huge edge in offensive efficiency with an Offensive Rating of 120 points per 100 possessions compared to Felton's 108.  The on court and off court differential numbers are also to Billups' advantage.

But the biggest thing Billups brings to the Knicks that Felton had trouble delivering is outside shooting.  Billups' True Shooting Percentage is 63.4 and he's knocking down 44.1% of his shots from behind the arc.  Felton has struggled from distance, making only 32.8% of his three-pointers.  He started out good, hitting right around 36% on threes in the first month of the season, but perhaps the high number of minutes he's been playing wore him down.

From a statistical standpoint Billups brings an outside shooting element to the point guard position that wasn't there when Felton was manning the helm  for the Knicks.  But, New York may very well have lost some ability in the playmaking department.  Ultimately I think Billups is a nice upgrade at the point because of his shooting, leadership and experience.  Let's not forget, "Mr. Big Shot" is an NBA Finals MVP.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

It's been a great year so far for point guards in the NBA. Just try to pick one to start on the Western Conference All Star team. You've got Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker who are all having spectacular seasons.

Who's leading the NBA point guard pack in production? The answer is below. You can find my ranking process on my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.  And, if you are interested, Deron Williams was the top-rated point guard for the 2009-10 season.

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O Rat. Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final Rank . Chris Paul, NO 25.55 1 11 1 12.5 2 125 1 99 1 6 1 . Derrick Rose, CHI 23.13 5 9.4 4 7.1 4 111 17 102 4 34 2 . Tony Parker, SA 20.97 6 6.9 6 4 7 114 12 105 9 40 3 . Rajon Rondo, BOS 19.6 8 4.8 9 9 3 110 21 100 2 43 4 . Andre Miller, POR 19.07 9 5.5 7 6.8 5 112 14 107 22 57 5 . Deron Williams, UTAH 23.44 4 9.9 2 4.1 6 120 3 111 46 61 6 . Russell Westbrook, OKC 24.15 2 9.9 2 2.9 12 110 21 108 28 65 7 . Steve Nash, PHX 24.02 3 8.1 5 15.8 1 123 2 116 64 75 8 . Stephen Curry, GS 19.74 7 4.7 10 3.5 8 112 14 111 46 85 9 . George Hill, SA 14.53 34 1.8 32 3.3 11 116 7 105 9 93 10 . Shannon Brown, LAL 16.66 23 2.3 29 3.5 8 111 17 106 16 93 10 . Jose Calderon, TOR 17.95 12 3.7 16 2.4 13 116 7 112 51 99 12 . D.J. Augustin, CHA 16.69 22 3.9 13 0.8 24 119 5 110 39 103 13 . Jameer Nelson, ORL 16.09 25 2.9 22 -1 34 112 14 105 9 104 14 . Lou Williams, PHI 17.58 14 2.9 22 3.4 10 108 27 109 32 105 15 . Beno Udrih, SAC 16.95 17 3.9 13 -0.8 33 120 3 110 39 105 15 . Chauncey Billups, DEN 17.46 16 3.8 15 0.8 24 116 7 111 46 108 17 . Rodney Stuckey, DET 18.31 10 4.3 12 1.6 19 111 17 112 51 109 18 . Devin Harris, NJ 18.15 11 4.4 11 1 22 107 30 110 39 113 19 . Jason Kidd, DAL 14.75 33 2.6 26 1.9 16 104 35 103 6 116 20 . Jrue Holiday, PHI 15.92 27 3.5 17 1.1 21 104 35 106 16 116 20 . Mike Conley, MEM 15.5 30 3.3 18 1.9 16 107 30 107 22 116 20 . Earl Boykins, MIL 16.8 19 1.4 35 1 22 105 34 105 9 119 23 . Darren Collison, IND 16.77 20 3.1 19 -1 34 107 30 106 16 119 23 . Ty Lawson, DEN 16.74 21 2.8 24 2 15 115 11 112 51 122 25 . Raymond Felton, NY 17.75 13 5.3 8 -1 34 109 24 111 46 125 26 . Brandon Jennings, MIL 16.89 18 2.6 26 -1.5 39 103 37 104 7 127 27 . Kyle Lowry, HOU 15.24 31 2.7 25 1.2 20 110 21 109 32 129 28 . Luke Ridnour, MIN 16.26 24 3 20 0.1 28 118 6 113 54 132 29 . Eddie House, MIA 13.33 38 0.5 42 -3.2 48 116 7 104 7 142 30 . Ramon Sessions, CLE 17.56 15 3 20 0.7 26 108 27 114 58 146 31 . Daniel Gibson, CLE 15.08 32 2 31 2.4 13 109 24 113 54 154 32 . Mike Bibby, ATL 12.45 43 0.9 39 -0.5 32 113 13 108 28 155 33 . Gary Neal, SA 13.05 41 0.8 40 -2.5 44 109 24 106 16 165 34 . Tyreke Evans, SAC 14.28 35 2.1 30 -0.1 30 96 54 107 22 171 35 . Baron Davis, LAC 15.61 29 1.7 33 -3 46 102 40 109 32 180 36 . John Wall, WSH 15.72 28 2.4 28 -2.9 45 99 50 109 32 183 37 . Gilbert Arenas, ORL 12.91 42 1 38 0.1 29 95 54 107 22 185 38 . Aaron Brooks, HOU 16.02 26 1.2 36 -2 43 108 27 113 54 186 39 . Earl Watson, UTAH 11.35 51 0.1 50 1.7 18 102 40 108 28 187 40 . Patrick Mills, POR 13.32 39 0.5 42 0.4 27 102 40 110 39 187 40 . Shaun Livingston, CHA 11.5 50 0.2 46 -0.2 31 99 50 106 16 193 42 . Mario Chalmers, MIA 10.57 53 -0.2 54 -3.1 47 102 40 102 4 198 43 . Jordan Farmar, NJ 13.32 39 1.1 37 -1.2 37 100 47 110 39 199 44 . Carlos Arroyo, MIA 10.39 57 -0.3 56 -4 51 111 17 107 22 203 45 . Eric Maynor, OKC 11.8 46 0.2 46 -1.6 40 103 37 110 39 208 46 . C.J. Watson, CHI 10.46 56 -0.2 54 -1.4 38 92 60 101 3 211 47 . Jarrett Jack, NO 11.95 45 0.4 44 -4.3 54 96 54 106 16 213 48 . Jerryd Bayless, TOR 13.5 37 0.8 40 -3.5 49 107 30 114 58 214 49 . Derek Fisher, LAL 9.31 60 -1 63 -4.5 56 103 37 105 9 225 50 . Nate Robinson, BOS 10.9 52 0 52 -7.6 62 99 50 105 9 225 50 . T.J. Ford, IND 10.15 58 -0.3 56 -3.6 50 92 60 105 9 233 52 . Jose Juan Barea, DAL 11.54 48 0.2 46 -4.3 54 97 53 109 32 233 52 . Eugene Jeter, SAC 11.52 49 0.1 50 -1.9 42 100 47 111 46 234 54 . Mo Williams, CLE 13.99 36 1.5 34 -4.2 52 96 54 114 58 234 54 . Will Bynum, DET 11.97 44 0.2 46 -4.2 52 102 40 113 54 236 56 . Ronnie Price, UTAH 7.8 61 -0.8 60 -1.8 41 91 63 108 28 253 57 . Eric Bledsoe, LAC 10.5 55 -0.3 56 -5.1 57 94 59 109 32 259 58 . Steve Blake, LAL 7.6 62 -1.4 65 -8.8 64 102 40 109 32 263 59 . Goran Dragic, PHX 11.74 47 0.3 45 -7.4 61 95 54 114 58 265 60 . Ishmael Smith, HOU 9.32 59 -0.3 56 -6.5 59 92 60 110 39 273 61 . Chris Duhon, ORL 6.16 64 -1.1 64 -6.6 60 90 64 107 22 274 62 . Sebastian Telfair, MIN 10.52 54 -0.1 53 -5.5 58 101 47 115 62 274 62 . Acie Law, GS 6.72 63 -0.8 60 -8.2 63 102 40 116 64 290 64 . Jonny Flynn, MIN 4.77 65 -0.9 62 -10.2 65 80 65 115 62 319 65

I'll be posting my observations on this list in the next couple of days. Let me know your thoughts on the list by posting a comment below.

NBA Shooting Guards 2010 - Cumulative Rankings

The results of my cumulative rankings for NBA shooting guards were a definite surprise.  I did not expect Manu Ginobili to top the charts.  Dwayne Wade was pretty close to him but Ginobili's #3 Offensive Rating compared to Wade's #12 ranking in that category made the difference. 

(I've previously posted the full details on the ranking system, as well as the 2010 NBA Point Guard Rankings.)

Here's what the rankings of NBA shooting guards looks like for the 2009-2010 season, with their cumulative totals included for differentiation:

1. Manu Ginobili, SAS 13
2. Dwyane Wade, MIA 17
3. Kobe Bryant, LAL 40
4. Brandon Roy, POR 51
5. Vince Carter, ORL 54
6. Ray Allen, BOS 70
7. Joe Johnson, ATL 70
8. John Salmons, MIL 75
9. Rodrigue Beaubois, DAL 79
10. Jamal Crawford, ATL 80
11. Jason Richardson, PHO 81
12. Kevin Martin, HOU 94
13. Andre Iguodala, PHI 95
14. Jason Terry, DAL 95
15. Stephen Jackson, CHA 98
16. Kyle Korver, UTH 98
17. James Harden, OKC 100
18. Quentin Richardson, MIA 103
19. J.J. Redick, ORL 107
20. Marcus Thornton, NOR 119
21. Delonte West, CLE 121
22. J.R. Smith, DEN 131
23. Mike Miller, WAS 133
24. Rudy Fernandez, POR 143
25. Tony Allen, BOS 148
26. A.J. Price, IND 153
27. Anthony Morrow, GSW 154
28. O.J. Mayo, MEM 155
29. Bill Walker, NYK 155
30. Toney Douglas, NYK 161
31. Wesley Matthews, UTH 169
32. Ronnie Brewer, MEM 174
33. Eric Gordon, LAC 177
34. Leandro Barbosa, PHO 186
35. Sasha Vujacic, LAL 191
36. Marco Belinelli, TOR 193
37. Monta Ellis, GSW 193
38. Anthony Parker, CLE 195
39. Kirk Hinrich, CHI 198
40. Richard Hamilton, DET 199
41. Francisco Garcia, SAC 200
42. Courtney Lee, NJN 202
43. Thabo Sefolosha, OKS 213
44. Randy Foye, WAS 217
45. Jerry Stackhouse, MIL 218
46. Allen Iverson, PHI 219
47. Ben Gordon, DET 219
48. Arron Afflalo, DEN 220
49. Keyon Dooling, NJN 222
50. Larry Hughes, CHA 222
51. Luther Head, IND 231
52. Willie Green, PHI 234
53. Sonny Weems, TOR 239
54. Ronald Murray, CHI 246
55. Marquis Daniels, BOS 249
56. Tracy McGrady, NYK 251
57. Jodie Meeks, PHI 252
58. Sam Young, MEM 253
59. Joey Graham, DEN 254
60. DeMar DeRozan, TOR 260
61. Keith Bogans, SAS 260
62. Rasual Butler, LAC 262
63. Nick Young, WAS 263
64. Dahntay Jones, IND 269
65. Roger Mason, SAS 269
66. Corey Brewer, MIN 270
67. Charlie Bell, GSW 275
68. Brandon Rush, IND 276
69. Daequan Cook, MIA 284
70. Devin Brown, NOH 285
71. Wayne Ellington, MIN 295
72. Morris Peterson, NOR 302
73. DeShawn Stevenson, DAL 341

Like I did with the point guards, I'll be posting my thoughts on the rankings in a couple of days.  Let me know what you think by posting a comment below.

NBA Point Guards 2010 Rankings Analysis

Yesterday I posted the cumulative rankings of NBA point guards based on their play last season using the combination of five different statistical evaluations.  Today I'll share my thoughts on the data.

• There are clear differences between the levels of point guard quality.  The top levels seem to come in groups of four to five.  For instance, based on the cumulative numbers, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul and Jason Kidd are clearly at the top level.  Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Luke Ridnour make up the second level.  Raymond Felton, Derrick Rose, Lou Williams and Baron Davis make up the third level.  After that they are bunched up much more.
• Rondo didn't seem to get a lot of notice until the playoffs, but it's clear from these rankings that he deserved it for his excellent regular season.  I was surprised that he finished just one point below Deron Williams.
• Other guys that surprised me with how high they are ranked - Luke Ridnour, Lou Williams, Ty Lawson, Jason Williams, Kyle Lowry and George Hill.
• I was surprised at how low these players ranked - Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Tony Parker, Brandon Jennings and Darren Collison.  In fairness to Evans, Jennings and Collison, it was their rookie season.
• Deron Williams did not rank first in any of the five evaluation methods but still ranked first overall.  Rondo ranked first in both the Defensive Rating and WARP.  Paul was first in PER and Offensive Rating, but hurt by his 28th ranking in the Defensive Rating.  Nash was first in the Simple Rating and second in PER, Offensive Rating and WARP, but his 62nd ranking in Defensive Rating hurt him.
• I know the Timberwolves already have too many point guards, but their signing of Luke Ridnour could be the steal of free agency.  To get the ninth ranked point guard in the NBA for $16 million over four years is a great deal.  How that affects Johnny Flynn will be very interesting to watch.
• Right now it looks like the Bobcats are taking a real chance at the point.  D.J. Augustin did not have a good year and they lost Raymond Felton, who can probably be labeled as underappreciated based on his #10 ranking.  They also seem to be relying a lot on the hope that newly signed backup Shaun Livingston will start reaching his potential.

What player rankings surprise you the most?

NBA Point Guards 2010 - Cumulative Rankings

First, welcome to Behind the Arc.  As you might guess the focus here is basketball.  Initially I plan to heavily cover the NBA, with some college hoops as well.  But that is subject to change.

For my first project I have been researching all of the different methods for evaluating NBA players.  There are a number of statistical approaches that very intelligent basketball experts have put together.  I pulled together multiple evaluations that I think help to paint the picture.  They include:

• John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Ratings at ESPN
• Wins Above Replacement Player at the Basketball Prospectus
• Offensive and Defensive Ratings at Basketball-Reference.com
• Simple Ratings at 82 Games

I looked at player performance from the 2009-2010 regular season and pulled the evaluations in those five categories.  I then ranked them based on those numbers and added up the rankings to get a total rank with lower numbers being better than higher numbers.

Here are the point guard rankings (500+ minutes played) with their cumulative totals included for differentiation:

1. Deron Williams, Utah 31
2. Rajon Rondo, BOS 32
3. Chris Paul, NOR 38
4. Jason Kidd, DAL 41
5. Chauncey Billups, DEN 60
6. Andre Miller, POR 64
7. Steve Nash, PHO 69
8. Russell Westbrook, OKC 70
9. Luke Ridnour, MIL 70
10. Raymond Felton, CHA 84
11. Derrick Rose, CHI 87
12. Lou Williams, PHI 90
13. Baron Davis, LAC 95
14. Tyreke Evans, SAC 102
15. Ty Lawson, DEN 103
16. Mo Williams, CLE 106
17. Kyle Lowry, HOU 109
18. Jameer Nelson, ORL 109
19. George Hill, SAS 110
20. Tony Parker, SAS 119
21. Jason Williams, ORL 127
22. Stephen Curry, GSW 128
23. Gilbert Arenas, WAS 129
24. Brandon Jennings, MIL 129
25. Beno Udrih, SAC 130
26. Jarrett Jack, TOR 138
27. Aaron Brooks, HOU 142
28. Jose Calderon, TOR 144
29. Rodney Stuckey, DET 154
30. C.J. Watson, GSW 154
31. Darren Collison, NOR 155
32. Mike Bibby, ATL 156
33. Carlos Arroyo, MIA 156
34. Nate Robinson, BOS 159
35. Mike Conley, MEM 167
36. Goran Dragic, PHO 169
37. Daniel Gibson, CLE 171
38. Devin Harris, NJN 173
39. Jerryd Bayless, POR 180
40. Sergio Rodriguez, NYK 183
41. Eric Maynor, OKC 187
42. Jordan Farmar, LAL 189
43. Shannon Brown, LAL 196
44. T.J. Ford, IND 197
45. Shaun Livingston, WAS 200
46. D.J. Augustin, CHA 204
47. Earl Watson, IND 207
48. Mario Chalmers, MIA 213
49. Ramon Sessions, MIN 215
50. Derek Fisher, LAL 218
51. Jose Juan Barea, DAL 225
52. Will Bynum, DET 227
53. Jrue Holiday, PHI 233
54. Steve Blake, POR 240
55. Ronnie Price, UTH 242
56. Jeff Teague, ATL 243
57. Anthony Carter, DEN 251
58. Earl Boykins, WAS 252
59. Chris Duhon, NYK 254
60. Jannero Pargo, CHI 270
61. Jonny Flynn, MIN 270
62. Eddie House, NYK 273
63. Jamaal Tinsley, MEM 278
64. Sebastian Telfair, LAC 279
65. Marcus Williams, MEM 293
66. Rafer Alston, MIA 295
67. Chucky Atkins, DET 303
68. Bobby Brown, LAC 315

In the next few days I will post my analysis of the rankings, including some thoughts on surprises.  I'll also be posting the rankings for the other four positions, as well as the overall rankings.  In the mean time, please share your thoughts in the comments section below.