Chauncey Billups and Raymond Felton - Performance Comparison

The huge trade between the Knicks, Nuggets and Timberwolves that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York is now official.  While clearly the big headline is Carmelo getting the outcome he always wanted and the question of whether he can help make the Knicks a championship contender, one of the more interesting angles to me is the swap of Chauncey Billups and Raymond Felton.

Let's compare the performance of Billups and Felton so far this season and look at what Billups will bring to the Knicks that Felton did not.

. Statistic Chauncey Billups Raymond Felton . MPG 32.3 38.4 . PER 18.8 17.34 . EWA 6.4 6.5 . True S% 63.4 52.4 . 3FG% 44.1 32.8 . Ast/36 5.9 8.5 . Tur/36 2.8 3.1 . ORtg 120 108 . DRtg 112 111 . Opp PER 17.6 17.6 . On Ct/48 3.6 -0.2 . Off Ct/48 2.3 5

When you look at the statistics above you see that there has not been a large gap between the production levels of Billups and Felton.  Billups has a nice lead in PER at 18.8 to Felton's 17.34, but because of the advantage Felton has in minutes played his Estimated Wins Added of 6.5 beats out Billups by a whisker.

Billups has a huge edge in offensive efficiency with an Offensive Rating of 120 points per 100 possessions compared to Felton's 108.  The on court and off court differential numbers are also to Billups' advantage.

But the biggest thing Billups brings to the Knicks that Felton had trouble delivering is outside shooting.  Billups' True Shooting Percentage is 63.4 and he's knocking down 44.1% of his shots from behind the arc.  Felton has struggled from distance, making only 32.8% of his three-pointers.  He started out good, hitting right around 36% on threes in the first month of the season, but perhaps the high number of minutes he's been playing wore him down.

From a statistical standpoint Billups brings an outside shooting element to the point guard position that wasn't there when Felton was manning the helm  for the Knicks.  But, New York may very well have lost some ability in the playmaking department.  Ultimately I think Billups is a nice upgrade at the point because of his shooting, leadership and experience.  Let's not forget, "Mr. Big Shot" is an NBA Finals MVP.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

On Saturday I posted my mid-season NBA point guard rankings.  Here are my observations from that list:

Photo source: ZanderSt.Pierre

• Chris Paul takes the top spot impressively, leading in four of the five categories and finishing second in the Simple Rating.  When you look at the totals it is clear that in a year of excellent point guard play Paul is in a class by himself.
• Derrick Rose, Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo are the second level point guards.  Rose has definitely taken his game to the next level, rising nine spots from the 2009-10 point guard rankings, while Parker has recovered from an injury-plagued 09-10 and jumped 17 spots.
• Steve Nash leads the Simple Rating category but his overall ranking is really pulled down by his Defensive Rating (64th). 
• Deron Williams was my top-ranked point guard for the 2009-10 season but he currently stands at sixth, in large part due to a Defensive Rating that's dropped 30 spots to 46th so far in 2010-11.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Tony Parker, Andre Miller, Shannon Brown and D.J. Augustin.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Chauncey Billups, Raymond Felton and Tyreke Evans.
• Felton is a curious case to me because when I evaluated the Knicks early season play in November his numbers were excellent.  Since then his PER has dropped almost a full point, his Offensive Rating has fallen five points and his Defensive Rating is down two points.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Earl Boykins (up 35), Shannon Brown (up 33), D.J. Augustin (up 33) and Jrue Holiday (up 33).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Mo Williams (down 38), Goran Dragic (down 24) and Baron Davis (down 23).
• The highest rated rookie is Gary Neal at 34.  John Wall comes in at 37.
• Interestingly, two of the biggest NBA title contenders, the Lakers and Heat, are among the teams getting the least production from the point guard position.  The caveat there of course is that neither team asks much from the point guard position.  But you have to think they'd like to get a little bit more than they've gotten so far this season.

New York Knicks - Early Season Returns

Photo source: Lordcolus

The Knicks made as many changes to their roster as any team in the NBA.  How have all the moves helped New York?  If you look at the record the answer is - incrementally.  The Knicks were 1-8 in the first nine games of 2009 and have started the 2010/11 season 3-6.

They have a really good win at Chicago but have now lost four in a row.  Let's take a look at the team stats and some advanced individual stats to see what they tell us.

Before that though, I predicted the Knicks would have a 40-42 record.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 103.8 (23rd in the NBA) [107.6 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 106.8 (17th) [111.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -3.0 [-4.0 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 102.4 (11th) [102.1 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 105.3 (24th) [105.9 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 98.7 (2nd) [94.0 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Raymond Felton
Offensive Rating:  114 (107 in 2009)
Defensive Rating:  109 (103)
PER:  18.7 (15.2)

Amare Stoudamire
Offensive Rating: 97 (117 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (109)
PER: 16.8 (22.6)

Wilson Chandler
Offensive Rating: 104 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (113)
PER: 18.5 (13.7)

Danilo Gallinari
Offensive Rating: 117 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 109 (112)
PER: 14.7 (14.8)

Toney Douglas
Offensive Rating: 107 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 106 (113)
PER: 16.2 (14.9)

Landry Fields
Offensive Rating: 121 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 108
PER: 14.9

Ronny Turiaf
Offensive Rating: 136 (110 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (110)
PER: 16.6 (12.6)

Timofey Mozgov
Offensive Rating: 76 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103 (103)
PER: 5.9 (15.2)

Bill Walker
Offensive Rating: 91 (122 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 113 (113)
PER: 4.8 (14.6)

The Knicks are playing at a faster pace than last season but their offensive efficiency has gone down.  That is not a recipe for success.  However, they've improved their defensive efficiency by nearly five points per 100 possessions and have increased their efficiency margin to -3 from -4 in 2009/10.

Because of all the roster turnover we cannot quite compare apples to apples as far as individual contributions.  So let's start by taking a look at the new additions.  It is clear that Stoudamire is underperforming his massive contract.  His year over year drop in PER from 22.6 to 16.8 is frightening.  The most obvious culprit - his field-goal shooting percentage has fallen more than 100 points.

The other big offseason acquisition, Felton, has been an excellent contributor.  I ranked him as one of the top 10 point guards in the NBA after last season.  On a less defensively-focused team his Defensive Rating has risen but his Offensive Rating has matched it.  There was uncertainty about his ability to run the up tempo Knicks offense, but he is clearly excelling in the system.

Chandler has been a solid contributor off the bench.  He's raised his PER almost five points from last season and has the second highest PER on the team.  Douglas has authored a nice little jump in his PER as well and has been outstanding in a few games.

The Knicks have to hope that Gallinari has recovered from his early season wrist injury.  Cumulatively over the first nine games, he's been just a guy.  The average PER ranking is 15.0 and he's at 14.7.  The good news is that he's picked up his play over the last two games.  His 35% field-goal shooting percentage is really hurting him.

Fields is starting and his 14.9 PER portrays him as just a guy. But he does have an excellent margin in efficiency, with a +13.  Fellow rookie Mozgov has been pretty awful.

Turiaf is the only piece from the David Lee trade that has contributed in a meaningful way so far.  The hope is that Anthony Randolph, who is now playing, will get into playing shape quickly and start to reach his massive potential even more quickly. 

How would you assess the first nine games of the Knicks season?  What do you hope to see as the season progresses?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

New York Knicks - Better or Worse?

This post is the first of a series where I will be looking at the moves made by each NBA team during the offseason and comparing their current roster to their 2009 roster and using the cumulative rankings system I developed to judge whether the team is better or worse.

Photo source: jhartney

The New York Knicks will be the first team I will be evaluating.  The Knicks went into the offseason with a lot of cap room and high hopes.  They had been playing all of their cards the last couple of seasons in a way that would enable them to make a big splash in the summer of 2010.  Of course, their main target was LeBron James.  They didn't get LeBron, but they certainly made some additions that should help them improve.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Chris Duhon (#59 PG, Unranked), Sergio Rodriguez (#40 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Raymond Felton (#10 PG, Level 3), Toney Douglas (#30 SG, Level 6)

The signing of Felton was a huge upgrade for the Knicks at the point guard position.  The player that had the most minutes as the position last year, Duhon, was the 59th ranked point guard in the league.  Felton was an impressive 10th, putting him at the top of the third level.  Douglas is also an upgrade in the backup role and he can be expected to improve on his rookie season.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Tracy McGrady (#56 SG, Level 9), Toney Douglas (#30 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Wilson Chandler (#34 SF, Level 8), Kelenna Azubuike (injured)

While not a big upgrade, Chandler did outperform McGrady last year and should continue to develop. 

Small Forward
2009 - Wilson Chandler (#34 SF, Level 8)
2010 - Danilo Gallinari (#37 PF, Level 6)

While their overall rankings look close, Gallinari actually outperformed Chandler by a pretty good margin last year.  Gallinari's ratings are: PER - 14.89, Offense - 113, Defense - 112, WARP - 3.2, and Simple -1.3.  Chandler's ratings are: PER - 13.76, Offense - 106, Defense - 113, WARP - 0, and Simple 0.9.

Power Forward
2009 - Danilo Gallinari (#37 PF, Level 6), Al Harrington (#47 PF, Level 7)
2010 - Amare Stoudamire (#10 PF, Level 3), Anthony Randolph (#32 PF, Level 6)

Stoudamire is a big upgrade at the power forward position, taking the spot up three levels for the Knicks.  Randolph is a nice little improvement in the backup role.

Center
2009 - David Lee (#12 C, Level 3)
2010 - Ronny Turiaf (#45 C, Level 8)

Lee had an excellent season in New York last year.  Turiaf can't hope to match it but the Knicks will surely mix up their lineups and Turiaf will play nowhere near the amount of minutes that Lee did.

Overall
The Knicks finished 29-53 last year.  My rough estimate is that each level difference in a starter is worth a win while each level difference in a backup is worth half a win.  According to that formula the Knicks gain eight wins at point guard, one win at shooting guard, two wins at small forward and three and a half wins at power forward.  They lose five wins at center.  The net total is nine and a half.  I like this mix of players and think it's a good group for Mike D'Antoni's system so I'm going to bump that up to 11.

In the final verdict the Knicks are BETTER.  As they are now I predict their record to be 40-42.

NBA Point Guards 2010 Rankings Analysis

Yesterday I posted the cumulative rankings of NBA point guards based on their play last season using the combination of five different statistical evaluations.  Today I'll share my thoughts on the data.

• There are clear differences between the levels of point guard quality.  The top levels seem to come in groups of four to five.  For instance, based on the cumulative numbers, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul and Jason Kidd are clearly at the top level.  Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Luke Ridnour make up the second level.  Raymond Felton, Derrick Rose, Lou Williams and Baron Davis make up the third level.  After that they are bunched up much more.
• Rondo didn't seem to get a lot of notice until the playoffs, but it's clear from these rankings that he deserved it for his excellent regular season.  I was surprised that he finished just one point below Deron Williams.
• Other guys that surprised me with how high they are ranked - Luke Ridnour, Lou Williams, Ty Lawson, Jason Williams, Kyle Lowry and George Hill.
• I was surprised at how low these players ranked - Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Tony Parker, Brandon Jennings and Darren Collison.  In fairness to Evans, Jennings and Collison, it was their rookie season.
• Deron Williams did not rank first in any of the five evaluation methods but still ranked first overall.  Rondo ranked first in both the Defensive Rating and WARP.  Paul was first in PER and Offensive Rating, but hurt by his 28th ranking in the Defensive Rating.  Nash was first in the Simple Rating and second in PER, Offensive Rating and WARP, but his 62nd ranking in Defensive Rating hurt him.
• I know the Timberwolves already have too many point guards, but their signing of Luke Ridnour could be the steal of free agency.  To get the ninth ranked point guard in the NBA for $16 million over four years is a great deal.  How that affects Johnny Flynn will be very interesting to watch.
• Right now it looks like the Bobcats are taking a real chance at the point.  D.J. Augustin did not have a good year and they lost Raymond Felton, who can probably be labeled as underappreciated based on his #10 ranking.  They also seem to be relying a lot on the hope that newly signed backup Shaun Livingston will start reaching his potential.

What player rankings surprise you the most?