Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

On Saturday I posted my mid-season NBA point guard rankings.  Here are my observations from that list:

Photo source: ZanderSt.Pierre

• Chris Paul takes the top spot impressively, leading in four of the five categories and finishing second in the Simple Rating.  When you look at the totals it is clear that in a year of excellent point guard play Paul is in a class by himself.
• Derrick Rose, Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo are the second level point guards.  Rose has definitely taken his game to the next level, rising nine spots from the 2009-10 point guard rankings, while Parker has recovered from an injury-plagued 09-10 and jumped 17 spots.
• Steve Nash leads the Simple Rating category but his overall ranking is really pulled down by his Defensive Rating (64th). 
• Deron Williams was my top-ranked point guard for the 2009-10 season but he currently stands at sixth, in large part due to a Defensive Rating that's dropped 30 spots to 46th so far in 2010-11.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Tony Parker, Andre Miller, Shannon Brown and D.J. Augustin.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Chauncey Billups, Raymond Felton and Tyreke Evans.
• Felton is a curious case to me because when I evaluated the Knicks early season play in November his numbers were excellent.  Since then his PER has dropped almost a full point, his Offensive Rating has fallen five points and his Defensive Rating is down two points.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Earl Boykins (up 35), Shannon Brown (up 33), D.J. Augustin (up 33) and Jrue Holiday (up 33).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Mo Williams (down 38), Goran Dragic (down 24) and Baron Davis (down 23).
• The highest rated rookie is Gary Neal at 34.  John Wall comes in at 37.
• Interestingly, two of the biggest NBA title contenders, the Lakers and Heat, are among the teams getting the least production from the point guard position.  The caveat there of course is that neither team asks much from the point guard position.  But you have to think they'd like to get a little bit more than they've gotten so far this season.

Philadelphia 76ers - Better or Worse?

Photo source: JoongDal

After a solid 2008-2009 season where they took the eventual Eastern Conference Champion Magic to six games in a first round matchup, the 76ers had a miserable 2009-2010.  With new head coach Doug Collins, Philadelphia will be hoping to fight for a playoff spot in the upcoming season.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Jrue Holliday (#53 PG, Level 10), Lou Williams (#12 PG, Level 3)
2010 - Jrue Holliday (#53 PG, Level 10), Lou Williams (#12 PG, Level 3)

The Sixers are likely to put much more trust in Holliday in his second year in the NBA.  Williams started at times last season, is very dangerous off the bench, and put up some excellent numbers.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Allen Iverson (#46 SG, Level 8), Willie Green (#52 SG, Level 9)
2010 - Evan Turner (Rookie), Jason Kapono (#56 SF, Below level)

Heading into the draft there were a lot of people talking about Turner as the second most prepared NBA prospect.  But after he struggled in the summer league there have been more doubts expressed.  My guess is that over the course of the season he'll give the 76ers slightly more than Iverson did.

Small Forward
2009 - Andre Iguodala (#13 SG, Level 4)
2010 - Andre Iguodala (#13 SG, Level 4)

Like he did last year, Iguodala will play a majority of the minutes at the three. 

Power Forward
2009 - Elton Brand (#39 PF, Level 6), Thaddeus Young (#57 PF, Level 10)
2010 - Elton Brand (#39 PF, Level 6), Thaddeus Young (#57 PF, Level 10)

No change is expected in the depth chart at power forward.  This is a critical year for Young.  He really needs to take a step up.

Center
2009 - Samuel Dalembert (#17 C, Level 4), Marreese Speights (#40 C, Level 8)
2010 - Spencer Hawes (#48 C, Level 8), Marreese Speights (#40 C, Level 8)

While Dalembert has been on the trading block for seemingly years, he's still turned in some respectable seasons.  Replacing him with Hawes appears to be a downgrade.

Overall
The 76ers put up a 27-55 record last year.  They will be relying on the development of youth to help them contend for a playoff spot this season.  Holliday and Hawes must really develop their game for the Sixers to be successful.  Turner and Young will have to contribute productive minutes.  Based on their projected 2010 lineup I've got them picking up two wins at point guard and one win at shooting guard, staying even at the two forward positions and losing four at center.

In the final verdict the 76ers are WORSE.  As they are now I predict their record to be 25-57.