NBA Western Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

Yesterday I posted the roster I think should be representing the Eastern Conference in Sunday's NBA All Star Game.  Today I'm moving on to the Western Conference.  While there were only two roster spots that I would switch out in the East, I'd make twice as many changes in the West.

Photo source: johanohrling

Based on production and efficiency, here's my Western Conference starting five:
G: Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
G: Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
F: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F: Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
C: Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks

My Western Conference starting lineup only includes one of the same players as the starters that the fans voted into the game - Paul.  I'm picking Ginobili over Kobe Bryant at the other guard.  Check out my mid-season shooting guard rankings to see why. 

I've also got Nowitzki and Gasol over Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant at the forward positions.  At center I've got Chandler over Yao Ming, who is injured anyway.  Why Chandler?  Check out my mid-season center rankings where he is the top-rated center in the West.

As for the reserves, here are my seven:
G: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
G: Eric Gordon, Los Angeles Clippers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
C: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
F: David West, New Orleans Hornets
G: Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets

So not only would Anthony not start, he'd be left off my roster completely.  In fact, he's not even the next small forward in line - that would be Rudy Gay. 

Also controversial - I have Gordon and Martin making the team over Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams.  Sure it's hard to believe,but when you compare their production and efficiency Gordon and Martin come out on top.

The final difference is West making the team over Blake Griffin.  I love what Griffin is doing but West beats him out in my mid-season power forward rankings.  However, this one's hard to argue - Griffin is leading West in four of the five advanced statistical categories I include in my rankings.  It's West's huge advantage in Defensive Rating that puts him ahead of Griffin in the cumulative rankings.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

On Saturday I posted my mid-season NBA point guard rankings.  Here are my observations from that list:

Photo source: ZanderSt.Pierre

• Chris Paul takes the top spot impressively, leading in four of the five categories and finishing second in the Simple Rating.  When you look at the totals it is clear that in a year of excellent point guard play Paul is in a class by himself.
• Derrick Rose, Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo are the second level point guards.  Rose has definitely taken his game to the next level, rising nine spots from the 2009-10 point guard rankings, while Parker has recovered from an injury-plagued 09-10 and jumped 17 spots.
• Steve Nash leads the Simple Rating category but his overall ranking is really pulled down by his Defensive Rating (64th). 
• Deron Williams was my top-ranked point guard for the 2009-10 season but he currently stands at sixth, in large part due to a Defensive Rating that's dropped 30 spots to 46th so far in 2010-11.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Tony Parker, Andre Miller, Shannon Brown and D.J. Augustin.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Chauncey Billups, Raymond Felton and Tyreke Evans.
• Felton is a curious case to me because when I evaluated the Knicks early season play in November his numbers were excellent.  Since then his PER has dropped almost a full point, his Offensive Rating has fallen five points and his Defensive Rating is down two points.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Earl Boykins (up 35), Shannon Brown (up 33), D.J. Augustin (up 33) and Jrue Holiday (up 33).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Mo Williams (down 38), Goran Dragic (down 24) and Baron Davis (down 23).
• The highest rated rookie is Gary Neal at 34.  John Wall comes in at 37.
• Interestingly, two of the biggest NBA title contenders, the Lakers and Heat, are among the teams getting the least production from the point guard position.  The caveat there of course is that neither team asks much from the point guard position.  But you have to think they'd like to get a little bit more than they've gotten so far this season.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

It's been a great year so far for point guards in the NBA. Just try to pick one to start on the Western Conference All Star team. You've got Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker who are all having spectacular seasons.

Who's leading the NBA point guard pack in production? The answer is below. You can find my ranking process on my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.  And, if you are interested, Deron Williams was the top-rated point guard for the 2009-10 season.

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O Rat. Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final Rank . Chris Paul, NO 25.55 1 11 1 12.5 2 125 1 99 1 6 1 . Derrick Rose, CHI 23.13 5 9.4 4 7.1 4 111 17 102 4 34 2 . Tony Parker, SA 20.97 6 6.9 6 4 7 114 12 105 9 40 3 . Rajon Rondo, BOS 19.6 8 4.8 9 9 3 110 21 100 2 43 4 . Andre Miller, POR 19.07 9 5.5 7 6.8 5 112 14 107 22 57 5 . Deron Williams, UTAH 23.44 4 9.9 2 4.1 6 120 3 111 46 61 6 . Russell Westbrook, OKC 24.15 2 9.9 2 2.9 12 110 21 108 28 65 7 . Steve Nash, PHX 24.02 3 8.1 5 15.8 1 123 2 116 64 75 8 . Stephen Curry, GS 19.74 7 4.7 10 3.5 8 112 14 111 46 85 9 . George Hill, SA 14.53 34 1.8 32 3.3 11 116 7 105 9 93 10 . Shannon Brown, LAL 16.66 23 2.3 29 3.5 8 111 17 106 16 93 10 . Jose Calderon, TOR 17.95 12 3.7 16 2.4 13 116 7 112 51 99 12 . D.J. Augustin, CHA 16.69 22 3.9 13 0.8 24 119 5 110 39 103 13 . Jameer Nelson, ORL 16.09 25 2.9 22 -1 34 112 14 105 9 104 14 . Lou Williams, PHI 17.58 14 2.9 22 3.4 10 108 27 109 32 105 15 . Beno Udrih, SAC 16.95 17 3.9 13 -0.8 33 120 3 110 39 105 15 . Chauncey Billups, DEN 17.46 16 3.8 15 0.8 24 116 7 111 46 108 17 . Rodney Stuckey, DET 18.31 10 4.3 12 1.6 19 111 17 112 51 109 18 . Devin Harris, NJ 18.15 11 4.4 11 1 22 107 30 110 39 113 19 . Jason Kidd, DAL 14.75 33 2.6 26 1.9 16 104 35 103 6 116 20 . Jrue Holiday, PHI 15.92 27 3.5 17 1.1 21 104 35 106 16 116 20 . Mike Conley, MEM 15.5 30 3.3 18 1.9 16 107 30 107 22 116 20 . Earl Boykins, MIL 16.8 19 1.4 35 1 22 105 34 105 9 119 23 . Darren Collison, IND 16.77 20 3.1 19 -1 34 107 30 106 16 119 23 . Ty Lawson, DEN 16.74 21 2.8 24 2 15 115 11 112 51 122 25 . Raymond Felton, NY 17.75 13 5.3 8 -1 34 109 24 111 46 125 26 . Brandon Jennings, MIL 16.89 18 2.6 26 -1.5 39 103 37 104 7 127 27 . Kyle Lowry, HOU 15.24 31 2.7 25 1.2 20 110 21 109 32 129 28 . Luke Ridnour, MIN 16.26 24 3 20 0.1 28 118 6 113 54 132 29 . Eddie House, MIA 13.33 38 0.5 42 -3.2 48 116 7 104 7 142 30 . Ramon Sessions, CLE 17.56 15 3 20 0.7 26 108 27 114 58 146 31 . Daniel Gibson, CLE 15.08 32 2 31 2.4 13 109 24 113 54 154 32 . Mike Bibby, ATL 12.45 43 0.9 39 -0.5 32 113 13 108 28 155 33 . Gary Neal, SA 13.05 41 0.8 40 -2.5 44 109 24 106 16 165 34 . Tyreke Evans, SAC 14.28 35 2.1 30 -0.1 30 96 54 107 22 171 35 . Baron Davis, LAC 15.61 29 1.7 33 -3 46 102 40 109 32 180 36 . John Wall, WSH 15.72 28 2.4 28 -2.9 45 99 50 109 32 183 37 . Gilbert Arenas, ORL 12.91 42 1 38 0.1 29 95 54 107 22 185 38 . Aaron Brooks, HOU 16.02 26 1.2 36 -2 43 108 27 113 54 186 39 . Earl Watson, UTAH 11.35 51 0.1 50 1.7 18 102 40 108 28 187 40 . Patrick Mills, POR 13.32 39 0.5 42 0.4 27 102 40 110 39 187 40 . Shaun Livingston, CHA 11.5 50 0.2 46 -0.2 31 99 50 106 16 193 42 . Mario Chalmers, MIA 10.57 53 -0.2 54 -3.1 47 102 40 102 4 198 43 . Jordan Farmar, NJ 13.32 39 1.1 37 -1.2 37 100 47 110 39 199 44 . Carlos Arroyo, MIA 10.39 57 -0.3 56 -4 51 111 17 107 22 203 45 . Eric Maynor, OKC 11.8 46 0.2 46 -1.6 40 103 37 110 39 208 46 . C.J. Watson, CHI 10.46 56 -0.2 54 -1.4 38 92 60 101 3 211 47 . Jarrett Jack, NO 11.95 45 0.4 44 -4.3 54 96 54 106 16 213 48 . Jerryd Bayless, TOR 13.5 37 0.8 40 -3.5 49 107 30 114 58 214 49 . Derek Fisher, LAL 9.31 60 -1 63 -4.5 56 103 37 105 9 225 50 . Nate Robinson, BOS 10.9 52 0 52 -7.6 62 99 50 105 9 225 50 . T.J. Ford, IND 10.15 58 -0.3 56 -3.6 50 92 60 105 9 233 52 . Jose Juan Barea, DAL 11.54 48 0.2 46 -4.3 54 97 53 109 32 233 52 . Eugene Jeter, SAC 11.52 49 0.1 50 -1.9 42 100 47 111 46 234 54 . Mo Williams, CLE 13.99 36 1.5 34 -4.2 52 96 54 114 58 234 54 . Will Bynum, DET 11.97 44 0.2 46 -4.2 52 102 40 113 54 236 56 . Ronnie Price, UTAH 7.8 61 -0.8 60 -1.8 41 91 63 108 28 253 57 . Eric Bledsoe, LAC 10.5 55 -0.3 56 -5.1 57 94 59 109 32 259 58 . Steve Blake, LAL 7.6 62 -1.4 65 -8.8 64 102 40 109 32 263 59 . Goran Dragic, PHX 11.74 47 0.3 45 -7.4 61 95 54 114 58 265 60 . Ishmael Smith, HOU 9.32 59 -0.3 56 -6.5 59 92 60 110 39 273 61 . Chris Duhon, ORL 6.16 64 -1.1 64 -6.6 60 90 64 107 22 274 62 . Sebastian Telfair, MIN 10.52 54 -0.1 53 -5.5 58 101 47 115 62 274 62 . Acie Law, GS 6.72 63 -0.8 60 -8.2 63 102 40 116 64 290 64 . Jonny Flynn, MIN 4.77 65 -0.9 62 -10.2 65 80 65 115 62 319 65

I'll be posting my observations on this list in the next couple of days. Let me know your thoughts on the list by posting a comment below.

New Orleans Hornets - Better or Worse

After two really good years the Hornets took a step back last season.  Of course, a large reason for that slide into reverse was the injury that held Chris Paul to only 45 games played.  While he was out New Orleans was carried by the always steady David West and the play of two rookies, Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton.  The Hornets obviously thought enough of both of the guards to carry them on the roster but they could not have expected them to produce to the level that they did. 

The offseason was filled with much controversy as Chris Paul apparently demanded a trade but then did not.  This put brand new GM Dell Demps in the awkward position of trying to win now without the assets to do so.  He was able to pull off a trade, giving up new stallion Collison for the opportunity to unload James Posey's bad contract and get a good answer for a bad gap at small forward in Trevor Ariza.  What will 2010-11 hold for the Hornets?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: Mr. Littlehand

Point Guard
2009 - Chris Paul (#3 PG, Level 1), Darren Collison (#31 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Chris Paul (#3 PG, Level 1), Jerryd Bayless (#39 PG, Level 8)

I consider Paul a top 10 player when healthy and probably even top five.  His injury crushed New Orleans' chances in 2009-10.  Even while playing with the after effects Paul was able to put up the third most productive season among NBA point guards.  The loss of Collison will hurt a little but Bayless should be a good pickup who can add some additional scoring.  Net wins - 3.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Morris Peterson (#72 SG, Below level), Marcus Thornton (#20 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Marco Belinelli (#36 SG, Level 7), Marcus Thornton (#20 SG, Level 5)

Peterson was horrible last year while Thornton was a breath of fresh air.  He'll need to keep developing in 2010-11 if the Hornets are going to be in playoff contention.  Belinelli is a mystery.  He's shot 39% from behind the arc in three years of limited minutes.  Still, he's all but guaranteed to be more productive than Peterson.  Net wins - 2.

Small Forward
2009 - Peja Stojakovic (#41 SF, Level 9), Julian Wright (#42 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Trevor Ariza (#25 SF, Level 6), Peja Stojakovic (#41 SF, Level 9)

Houston soured on Ariza whose field-goal percentage dropped precipitously last season.  As they say, one man's trash is another man's treasure.  This is the case for Ariza, who fills a big hole in the New Orleans lineup.  Stojakovic should be more effective in smaller minutes as a long range shooter off the pine.  Net wins - 2.

Power Forward
2009 - David West (#23 PF, Level 5), Darius Songaila (#65 PF, Below level)
2010 - David West (#23 PF, Level 5), Jason Smith (Not enough minutes to rank)

West's numbers dropped slightly last season but it's due more to a decrease in minutes played than anything else.  Still, his curve is at the top and flat at best and heading downward at worst.  Smith is just a body.  Net losses - 1/2.

Center
2009 - Emeka Okafor (#25 C, Level 5)
2010 - Emeka Okafor (#25 C, Level 5), Aaron Gray (Not enough minutes to rank)

Okafor has played all 82 games in each of the last three seasons.  That's a positive.  The negative is that his production levels have decreased.  Gray was a productive back up in very limited minutes last season.  The trend continues with Okafor.  Net losses - 1/2.

Overall
I cannot emphasize enough how important Paul's health is for this team.  They have a handful of nice developmental pieces in Ariza, Thornton, Bayless and Belinelli.  If those four can continue to develop while West and Okafor maintain their levels of production then the Hornets should be in the running for the final Western Conference playoff spot.  Of course, the other thing to watch for is what happens with Paul.  If New Orleans struggles badly out of the gate then his eye will surely wander and Demps may want to seek out a trade to get the maximum value for such a huge asset.

The 2009-10 season ended with New Orleans at 37-45.  As I noted above, I have them adding three wins at point guard, two at shooting guard and two at small forward while dropping a half at power forward and a half at center.

In the final verdict the Hornets are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict they will post a 43-39 record this season.

What do you think?  Will the Hornets be better or worse this season?  How will that reflect on their record?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

NBA Point Guards 2010 Rankings Analysis

Yesterday I posted the cumulative rankings of NBA point guards based on their play last season using the combination of five different statistical evaluations.  Today I'll share my thoughts on the data.

• There are clear differences between the levels of point guard quality.  The top levels seem to come in groups of four to five.  For instance, based on the cumulative numbers, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul and Jason Kidd are clearly at the top level.  Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Luke Ridnour make up the second level.  Raymond Felton, Derrick Rose, Lou Williams and Baron Davis make up the third level.  After that they are bunched up much more.
• Rondo didn't seem to get a lot of notice until the playoffs, but it's clear from these rankings that he deserved it for his excellent regular season.  I was surprised that he finished just one point below Deron Williams.
• Other guys that surprised me with how high they are ranked - Luke Ridnour, Lou Williams, Ty Lawson, Jason Williams, Kyle Lowry and George Hill.
• I was surprised at how low these players ranked - Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Tony Parker, Brandon Jennings and Darren Collison.  In fairness to Evans, Jennings and Collison, it was their rookie season.
• Deron Williams did not rank first in any of the five evaluation methods but still ranked first overall.  Rondo ranked first in both the Defensive Rating and WARP.  Paul was first in PER and Offensive Rating, but hurt by his 28th ranking in the Defensive Rating.  Nash was first in the Simple Rating and second in PER, Offensive Rating and WARP, but his 62nd ranking in Defensive Rating hurt him.
• I know the Timberwolves already have too many point guards, but their signing of Luke Ridnour could be the steal of free agency.  To get the ninth ranked point guard in the NBA for $16 million over four years is a great deal.  How that affects Johnny Flynn will be very interesting to watch.
• Right now it looks like the Bobcats are taking a real chance at the point.  D.J. Augustin did not have a good year and they lost Raymond Felton, who can probably be labeled as underappreciated based on his #10 ranking.  They also seem to be relying a lot on the hope that newly signed backup Shaun Livingston will start reaching his potential.

What player rankings surprise you the most?