Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

On Saturday I posted my mid-season NBA point guard rankings.  Here are my observations from that list:

Photo source: ZanderSt.Pierre

• Chris Paul takes the top spot impressively, leading in four of the five categories and finishing second in the Simple Rating.  When you look at the totals it is clear that in a year of excellent point guard play Paul is in a class by himself.
• Derrick Rose, Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo are the second level point guards.  Rose has definitely taken his game to the next level, rising nine spots from the 2009-10 point guard rankings, while Parker has recovered from an injury-plagued 09-10 and jumped 17 spots.
• Steve Nash leads the Simple Rating category but his overall ranking is really pulled down by his Defensive Rating (64th). 
• Deron Williams was my top-ranked point guard for the 2009-10 season but he currently stands at sixth, in large part due to a Defensive Rating that's dropped 30 spots to 46th so far in 2010-11.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Tony Parker, Andre Miller, Shannon Brown and D.J. Augustin.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Chauncey Billups, Raymond Felton and Tyreke Evans.
• Felton is a curious case to me because when I evaluated the Knicks early season play in November his numbers were excellent.  Since then his PER has dropped almost a full point, his Offensive Rating has fallen five points and his Defensive Rating is down two points.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Earl Boykins (up 35), Shannon Brown (up 33), D.J. Augustin (up 33) and Jrue Holiday (up 33).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Mo Williams (down 38), Goran Dragic (down 24) and Baron Davis (down 23).
• The highest rated rookie is Gary Neal at 34.  John Wall comes in at 37.
• Interestingly, two of the biggest NBA title contenders, the Lakers and Heat, are among the teams getting the least production from the point guard position.  The caveat there of course is that neither team asks much from the point guard position.  But you have to think they'd like to get a little bit more than they've gotten so far this season.

Charlotte Bobcats - Better or Worse

Photo source: contemplicity

Charlotte took another step in the right direction last season.  For the first time in their six year history they finished with a record above .500 and made the playoffs.  They've built their team through the trade market over the past couple of years to match head coach Larry Brown's playing style.  They've tried to tweak it even more during the offseason by getting involved in multiple team trades, but so far none of those deals have come to fruition.  Are additional moves necessary or are the Bobcats positioned for success?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Raymond Felton (#10 PG, Level 3), D.J. Augustin (#46 PG, Level 9)
2010 - D.J. Augustin (#46 PG, Level 9), Shaun Livingston (#45 PG, Level 9)

Point guard is the position the Bobcats have been looking to improve through trades, and for good reason.  They lost Felton to free agency and now need either Augustin to make a huge improvement or Livingston to reach the potential that injuries have prevented him from reaching.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Stephen Jackson (#15 SG, Level 4), Larry Hughes (#50 SG, Level 8)
2010 - Stephen Jackson (#15 SG, Level 4), Gerald Henderson (did not qualify in '09)

There will not be many minutes to be found behind Jackson, but those that are available are likely to go to second year man Henderson who struggled to find playing time as a rookie.  Concerns should exist about Jackson's age catching up with him.

Small Forward
2009 - Gerald Wallace (#4 SF, Level 2), Stephen Graham (#43 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Gerald Wallace (#4 SF, Level 2), Derrick Brown (#52 PF, Level 8)

Even fewer minutes will be available at small forward.  Wallace averaged 41.0 minutes a game last year while performing as well as any small forward in the league not named LeBron or Durant.

Power Forward
2009 - Boris Diaw (#43 PF, Level 7), Tyrus Thomas (#22 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Tyrus Thomas (#22 PF, Level 5), Boris Diaw (#43 PF, Level 7)

Thomas came in just before the trade deadline and played well for the Bobcats.  They rewarded him with a five-year contract.  Now it's time for him to step his game up.  Diaw played poorly last season and Charlotte has been trying to unload him.

Center
2009 - Nazr Mohammed (#8 C, Level 3), Tyson Chandler (#34 C, Level 7), Theo Ratliff (#49 C, Level 8)
2010 - Nazr Mohammed (#8 C, Level 3), DeSagana Diop (did not qualify in '09)

A weird mix of big men played for the Bobcats at center last season.  The Tyson Chandler experiment is over as they traded him to Dallas in what was basically a salary dump.  Mohammed was very productive in limited time in '09-'10.

Overall
The Bobcats had a 44-38 record in the '09-'10 season.  They lost a big piece in Felton and have really done nothing to improve their team.  Meanwhile, one of their divisional foes, the Miami Heat, have improved dramatically.  They were 3-1 against the Heat last year but that is likely to reverse in the '10-'11 season.  To maintain their standing the Bobcats will need to see major production from Augustin or Livingston at the point, while Thomas takes a big step forward at the four.  Of course, they may also, finally, secure a point guard through a trade.  But, as they are now, I've got them picking up two wins at the power forward position, staying even at shooting guard and small forward, and losing five at point guard and one at center.

In the final verdict the Bobcats are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 40-42.

What do you think?  Am I too cynical about the Bobcats?  Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.

NBA Point Guards 2010 Rankings Analysis

Yesterday I posted the cumulative rankings of NBA point guards based on their play last season using the combination of five different statistical evaluations.  Today I'll share my thoughts on the data.

• There are clear differences between the levels of point guard quality.  The top levels seem to come in groups of four to five.  For instance, based on the cumulative numbers, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul and Jason Kidd are clearly at the top level.  Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Luke Ridnour make up the second level.  Raymond Felton, Derrick Rose, Lou Williams and Baron Davis make up the third level.  After that they are bunched up much more.
• Rondo didn't seem to get a lot of notice until the playoffs, but it's clear from these rankings that he deserved it for his excellent regular season.  I was surprised that he finished just one point below Deron Williams.
• Other guys that surprised me with how high they are ranked - Luke Ridnour, Lou Williams, Ty Lawson, Jason Williams, Kyle Lowry and George Hill.
• I was surprised at how low these players ranked - Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Tony Parker, Brandon Jennings and Darren Collison.  In fairness to Evans, Jennings and Collison, it was their rookie season.
• Deron Williams did not rank first in any of the five evaluation methods but still ranked first overall.  Rondo ranked first in both the Defensive Rating and WARP.  Paul was first in PER and Offensive Rating, but hurt by his 28th ranking in the Defensive Rating.  Nash was first in the Simple Rating and second in PER, Offensive Rating and WARP, but his 62nd ranking in Defensive Rating hurt him.
• I know the Timberwolves already have too many point guards, but their signing of Luke Ridnour could be the steal of free agency.  To get the ninth ranked point guard in the NBA for $16 million over four years is a great deal.  How that affects Johnny Flynn will be very interesting to watch.
• Right now it looks like the Bobcats are taking a real chance at the point.  D.J. Augustin did not have a good year and they lost Raymond Felton, who can probably be labeled as underappreciated based on his #10 ranking.  They also seem to be relying a lot on the hope that newly signed backup Shaun Livingston will start reaching his potential.

What player rankings surprise you the most?