Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

On Saturday I posted my mid-season NBA point guard rankings.  Here are my observations from that list:

Photo source: ZanderSt.Pierre

• Chris Paul takes the top spot impressively, leading in four of the five categories and finishing second in the Simple Rating.  When you look at the totals it is clear that in a year of excellent point guard play Paul is in a class by himself.
• Derrick Rose, Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo are the second level point guards.  Rose has definitely taken his game to the next level, rising nine spots from the 2009-10 point guard rankings, while Parker has recovered from an injury-plagued 09-10 and jumped 17 spots.
• Steve Nash leads the Simple Rating category but his overall ranking is really pulled down by his Defensive Rating (64th). 
• Deron Williams was my top-ranked point guard for the 2009-10 season but he currently stands at sixth, in large part due to a Defensive Rating that's dropped 30 spots to 46th so far in 2010-11.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Tony Parker, Andre Miller, Shannon Brown and D.J. Augustin.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Chauncey Billups, Raymond Felton and Tyreke Evans.
• Felton is a curious case to me because when I evaluated the Knicks early season play in November his numbers were excellent.  Since then his PER has dropped almost a full point, his Offensive Rating has fallen five points and his Defensive Rating is down two points.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Earl Boykins (up 35), Shannon Brown (up 33), D.J. Augustin (up 33) and Jrue Holiday (up 33).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Mo Williams (down 38), Goran Dragic (down 24) and Baron Davis (down 23).
• The highest rated rookie is Gary Neal at 34.  John Wall comes in at 37.
• Interestingly, two of the biggest NBA title contenders, the Lakers and Heat, are among the teams getting the least production from the point guard position.  The caveat there of course is that neither team asks much from the point guard position.  But you have to think they'd like to get a little bit more than they've gotten so far this season.

Sacramento Kings - Better or Worse

After hitting the bottom in the 2008-09 season and only earning 17 wins, the Kings started to rebound last year with the emergence of Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans.  They had another solid draft and made a nice trade to bring in Samuel Dalembert, who unfortunately got hurt and is expected to miss the first four to six weeks.  It seems clear that Sacramento is now aimed in the right direction, but how much better will they be in 2010-11?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Beno Udrih (#25 PG, Level 5)
2010 - Beno Udrih (#25 PG, Level 5)

Because Evans gets so many minutes at the point there really is no use in slotting another player into the backup role.  Udrih had a solid 2009-10 and really hit his stride when he began starting alongside Evans after the Kevin Martin trade.  The key for him will be avoiding turnovers.  He was much improved in that category last season, as he was with shooting percentage.  Net wins - 1/2.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Tyreke Evans (#14 PG, Level 4), Francisco Garcia (#41 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Tyreke Evans (#14 PG, Level 4), Francisco Garcia (#41 SG, Level 7)

Evans surpassed even the most optimistic of expectations last season and really took over the team after the Martin trade.  There are certainly opportunities for improvement in his game though and I expect more development in those areas next season.  Garcia is a serviceable backup with a nice touch from three-point range.  Net wins - 1 1/2.



Photo source: J.smith



Small Forward

 2009 - Donte Greene (#52 SF, Level 10), Omri Casspi (#30 SF, Level 7)
2010 - Donte Greene (#52 SF, Level 10), Omri Casspi (#30 SF, Level 7)

Small forward is a position where the Kings need more consistently solid play in 2010-11.  The good news is that both Greene (22) and Casspi (22) are young and athletic with promise and a lot of room for growth.  It would help Sacramento if one of them really took hold of this position.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Carl Landry (#17 PF, Level 5), Jon Brockman (#51, Level 8)
2010 - Carl Landry (#17 PF, Level 5), Jason Thompson (#33 C, Level 7)

A full season of Landry will be a boon to Sacramento.  He really broke out last year in Houston before stepping his game up even further after being traded to the Kings.  Thompson saw most of his minutes at the five spot last year.  That will probably be true for the early part of this season as well as they await the return of Dalembert.  Net wins - 1 1/2.

Center
2009 - Jason Thompson (#33 C, Level 7), Spencer Hawes (#48 C, Level 8)
2010 - Samuel Dalembert (17 C, Level 4), DeMarcus Cousins (Rookie)

Unfortunately the immediate improvement at center for the Kings will be delayed by Dalembert's injury.  He should help them greatly on the defensive end, an area where they really need it.  Cousins could be a perennial all star or a complete flame out.  I lean much more toward the former, however, I don't expect him to be a heavy contributor in his rookie year.  Net wins - 1 1/2.

Overall
Much like I mentioned about the Clippers, the Kings are building a nice foundation of young talent and the key to their success, both short-term and long-term, will be how they groom those players to excel.  It should be fun to watch this team come together this season.  The Kings had a 25-57 record in 2009-10.  As highlighted above, I've got them picking up one and a half wins at shooting guard, power forward and center, one win at small forward and half a win at point guard.

In the final verdict the Kings are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I project that they will have a 31-51 record in 2010-11.

What are your thoughts on this season's Kings?  Do you think my record projection is on target?  Let me know by posting a comment below.