NBA Eastern Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

With NBA All Star weekend coming up I want to take a look at the players that I think should be on the Eastern Conference roster.  I'm basing this roster on my mid-season player rankings.  You can find the formula for the ranking system on the 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.

Photo source: David Jones

Here are the five players that I think earned a starting spot:
G: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
F: Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
C: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

My starting lineup only has one different player from the starters the fans chose.  I have Paul Pierce starting at the forward spot over Amare Stoudamire.

Here are the seven additional Eastern Conference players that I think are worthy of being All Stars:
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
G: Ray Allen, Boston Celtics
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
F: Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
C: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
F: Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls

As you can see, I don't even have Stoudamire on the Eastern Conference All Star roster.  A peek at my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings shows you why - Stoudamire is the 14th most productive power forward in the NBA through the first half of the season.  Boozer has been the 10th most productive power forward.

The other roster difference is that I have Noah in place of Joe Johnson.  Johnson finished a very respectable seventh in my mid-season shooting guard rankings but Andre Iguodala, who finished fifth on those same rankings, would have been the next guard in line.  When matched up head-to-head in the five statistical analysis categories I like to use, Noah wins three (PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating) to Johnson's two (Estimated Wins Added and Simple Rating).

Overall, Sunday night's Eastern Conference roster is pretty close to the group I think should be playing.  Ultimately, I don't have an issue with Stoudamire making the team based on his full season contribution to the Knicks versus Boozer and Noah, who both missed significant time.  I do think that one of those Bulls frontliners should have made the team over Johnson.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

On Saturday I posted my mid-season NBA point guard rankings.  Here are my observations from that list:

Photo source: ZanderSt.Pierre

• Chris Paul takes the top spot impressively, leading in four of the five categories and finishing second in the Simple Rating.  When you look at the totals it is clear that in a year of excellent point guard play Paul is in a class by himself.
• Derrick Rose, Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo are the second level point guards.  Rose has definitely taken his game to the next level, rising nine spots from the 2009-10 point guard rankings, while Parker has recovered from an injury-plagued 09-10 and jumped 17 spots.
• Steve Nash leads the Simple Rating category but his overall ranking is really pulled down by his Defensive Rating (64th). 
• Deron Williams was my top-ranked point guard for the 2009-10 season but he currently stands at sixth, in large part due to a Defensive Rating that's dropped 30 spots to 46th so far in 2010-11.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Tony Parker, Andre Miller, Shannon Brown and D.J. Augustin.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Chauncey Billups, Raymond Felton and Tyreke Evans.
• Felton is a curious case to me because when I evaluated the Knicks early season play in November his numbers were excellent.  Since then his PER has dropped almost a full point, his Offensive Rating has fallen five points and his Defensive Rating is down two points.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Earl Boykins (up 35), Shannon Brown (up 33), D.J. Augustin (up 33) and Jrue Holiday (up 33).
• The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 season rankings are Mo Williams (down 38), Goran Dragic (down 24) and Baron Davis (down 23).
• The highest rated rookie is Gary Neal at 34.  John Wall comes in at 37.
• Interestingly, two of the biggest NBA title contenders, the Lakers and Heat, are among the teams getting the least production from the point guard position.  The caveat there of course is that neither team asks much from the point guard position.  But you have to think they'd like to get a little bit more than they've gotten so far this season.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

It's been a great year so far for point guards in the NBA. Just try to pick one to start on the Western Conference All Star team. You've got Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker who are all having spectacular seasons.

Who's leading the NBA point guard pack in production? The answer is below. You can find my ranking process on my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.  And, if you are interested, Deron Williams was the top-rated point guard for the 2009-10 season.

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O Rat. Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final Rank . Chris Paul, NO 25.55 1 11 1 12.5 2 125 1 99 1 6 1 . Derrick Rose, CHI 23.13 5 9.4 4 7.1 4 111 17 102 4 34 2 . Tony Parker, SA 20.97 6 6.9 6 4 7 114 12 105 9 40 3 . Rajon Rondo, BOS 19.6 8 4.8 9 9 3 110 21 100 2 43 4 . Andre Miller, POR 19.07 9 5.5 7 6.8 5 112 14 107 22 57 5 . Deron Williams, UTAH 23.44 4 9.9 2 4.1 6 120 3 111 46 61 6 . Russell Westbrook, OKC 24.15 2 9.9 2 2.9 12 110 21 108 28 65 7 . Steve Nash, PHX 24.02 3 8.1 5 15.8 1 123 2 116 64 75 8 . Stephen Curry, GS 19.74 7 4.7 10 3.5 8 112 14 111 46 85 9 . George Hill, SA 14.53 34 1.8 32 3.3 11 116 7 105 9 93 10 . Shannon Brown, LAL 16.66 23 2.3 29 3.5 8 111 17 106 16 93 10 . Jose Calderon, TOR 17.95 12 3.7 16 2.4 13 116 7 112 51 99 12 . D.J. Augustin, CHA 16.69 22 3.9 13 0.8 24 119 5 110 39 103 13 . Jameer Nelson, ORL 16.09 25 2.9 22 -1 34 112 14 105 9 104 14 . Lou Williams, PHI 17.58 14 2.9 22 3.4 10 108 27 109 32 105 15 . Beno Udrih, SAC 16.95 17 3.9 13 -0.8 33 120 3 110 39 105 15 . Chauncey Billups, DEN 17.46 16 3.8 15 0.8 24 116 7 111 46 108 17 . Rodney Stuckey, DET 18.31 10 4.3 12 1.6 19 111 17 112 51 109 18 . Devin Harris, NJ 18.15 11 4.4 11 1 22 107 30 110 39 113 19 . Jason Kidd, DAL 14.75 33 2.6 26 1.9 16 104 35 103 6 116 20 . Jrue Holiday, PHI 15.92 27 3.5 17 1.1 21 104 35 106 16 116 20 . Mike Conley, MEM 15.5 30 3.3 18 1.9 16 107 30 107 22 116 20 . Earl Boykins, MIL 16.8 19 1.4 35 1 22 105 34 105 9 119 23 . Darren Collison, IND 16.77 20 3.1 19 -1 34 107 30 106 16 119 23 . Ty Lawson, DEN 16.74 21 2.8 24 2 15 115 11 112 51 122 25 . Raymond Felton, NY 17.75 13 5.3 8 -1 34 109 24 111 46 125 26 . Brandon Jennings, MIL 16.89 18 2.6 26 -1.5 39 103 37 104 7 127 27 . Kyle Lowry, HOU 15.24 31 2.7 25 1.2 20 110 21 109 32 129 28 . Luke Ridnour, MIN 16.26 24 3 20 0.1 28 118 6 113 54 132 29 . Eddie House, MIA 13.33 38 0.5 42 -3.2 48 116 7 104 7 142 30 . Ramon Sessions, CLE 17.56 15 3 20 0.7 26 108 27 114 58 146 31 . Daniel Gibson, CLE 15.08 32 2 31 2.4 13 109 24 113 54 154 32 . Mike Bibby, ATL 12.45 43 0.9 39 -0.5 32 113 13 108 28 155 33 . Gary Neal, SA 13.05 41 0.8 40 -2.5 44 109 24 106 16 165 34 . Tyreke Evans, SAC 14.28 35 2.1 30 -0.1 30 96 54 107 22 171 35 . Baron Davis, LAC 15.61 29 1.7 33 -3 46 102 40 109 32 180 36 . John Wall, WSH 15.72 28 2.4 28 -2.9 45 99 50 109 32 183 37 . Gilbert Arenas, ORL 12.91 42 1 38 0.1 29 95 54 107 22 185 38 . Aaron Brooks, HOU 16.02 26 1.2 36 -2 43 108 27 113 54 186 39 . Earl Watson, UTAH 11.35 51 0.1 50 1.7 18 102 40 108 28 187 40 . Patrick Mills, POR 13.32 39 0.5 42 0.4 27 102 40 110 39 187 40 . Shaun Livingston, CHA 11.5 50 0.2 46 -0.2 31 99 50 106 16 193 42 . Mario Chalmers, MIA 10.57 53 -0.2 54 -3.1 47 102 40 102 4 198 43 . Jordan Farmar, NJ 13.32 39 1.1 37 -1.2 37 100 47 110 39 199 44 . Carlos Arroyo, MIA 10.39 57 -0.3 56 -4 51 111 17 107 22 203 45 . Eric Maynor, OKC 11.8 46 0.2 46 -1.6 40 103 37 110 39 208 46 . C.J. Watson, CHI 10.46 56 -0.2 54 -1.4 38 92 60 101 3 211 47 . Jarrett Jack, NO 11.95 45 0.4 44 -4.3 54 96 54 106 16 213 48 . Jerryd Bayless, TOR 13.5 37 0.8 40 -3.5 49 107 30 114 58 214 49 . Derek Fisher, LAL 9.31 60 -1 63 -4.5 56 103 37 105 9 225 50 . Nate Robinson, BOS 10.9 52 0 52 -7.6 62 99 50 105 9 225 50 . T.J. Ford, IND 10.15 58 -0.3 56 -3.6 50 92 60 105 9 233 52 . Jose Juan Barea, DAL 11.54 48 0.2 46 -4.3 54 97 53 109 32 233 52 . Eugene Jeter, SAC 11.52 49 0.1 50 -1.9 42 100 47 111 46 234 54 . Mo Williams, CLE 13.99 36 1.5 34 -4.2 52 96 54 114 58 234 54 . Will Bynum, DET 11.97 44 0.2 46 -4.2 52 102 40 113 54 236 56 . Ronnie Price, UTAH 7.8 61 -0.8 60 -1.8 41 91 63 108 28 253 57 . Eric Bledsoe, LAC 10.5 55 -0.3 56 -5.1 57 94 59 109 32 259 58 . Steve Blake, LAL 7.6 62 -1.4 65 -8.8 64 102 40 109 32 263 59 . Goran Dragic, PHX 11.74 47 0.3 45 -7.4 61 95 54 114 58 265 60 . Ishmael Smith, HOU 9.32 59 -0.3 56 -6.5 59 92 60 110 39 273 61 . Chris Duhon, ORL 6.16 64 -1.1 64 -6.6 60 90 64 107 22 274 62 . Sebastian Telfair, MIN 10.52 54 -0.1 53 -5.5 58 101 47 115 62 274 62 . Acie Law, GS 6.72 63 -0.8 60 -8.2 63 102 40 116 64 290 64 . Jonny Flynn, MIN 4.77 65 -0.9 62 -10.2 65 80 65 115 62 319 65

I'll be posting my observations on this list in the next couple of days. Let me know your thoughts on the list by posting a comment below.

Boston Celtics - Early Season Returns

The Celtics have gotten off to a solid 6-2 start and lead the rather weak Atlantic Division.  They suffered a bad loss at Cleveland in their second game but the other loss was at Dallas, certainly respectable.  They also have a couple of really good wins - Miami on opening night and at Oklahoma City.

Before the season I predicted the Celtics would finish 51-31.

Photo source: St. Groove

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 104.4 (20th in the NBA) [107.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 98.8 (3rd) [103.8 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 5.6 [3.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 97.9 (20th) [99.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 92.6 (5th) [95.6 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.3 [91.6 in 2009]

Player Stats

Rajon Rondo
Offensive Rating: 107 (111 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 96 (103)
PER: 20.7 (19.1)

Ray Allen
Offensive Rating: 107 (115)
Defensive Rating: 96 (108)
PER: 14.0 (15.2)

Paul Pierce
Offensive Rating: 113 (114)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 17.8 (18.2)

Kevin Garnett
Offensive Rating: 94 (112)
Defensive Rating: 93 (101)
PER: 15.8 (19.4)

Glen Davis
Offensive Rating: 120 (103)
Defensive Rating: 100 (106)
PER: 15.4 (11.5)

Shaquille O'Neal
Offensive Rating: 104 (104)
Defensive Rating: 101 (102)
PER: 13.7 (17.9)

Marquis Daniels
Offensive Rating: 116 (102)
Defensive Rating: 98 (107)
PER: 16.0 (9.6)

Jermaine O'Neal
Offensive Rating: 91 (108)
Defensive Rating: 97 (103)
PER: 9.1 (17.9)

Nate Robinson
Offensive Rating: 80 (104)
Defensive Rating: 105 (104)
PER: 2.4 (13.9)

Boston has excelled on the defensive end of the floor so far in 2010.  They've improved their Defensive Rating by five points over 2009-10.  The improvement is especially noticeable when Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen are on the floor.  Both have a Defensive Rating of 96.  Rondo improved from 103 and Allen from 108 last season.

Concerning for the Celtics is the drop in PER from the Big Three.  Paul Pierce's drop is a minimal 0.4 but Allen's is a more substantial 1.2 and Kevin Garnett's is a worrisome 3.6.  Garnett's field goal and free throw shooting percentages have dropped significantly over last season.  So has his assists rate even though he's playing more minutes.

The two O'Neal acquisitions have been somewhat of a letdown.  This is especially true for Jermaine whose PER has nearly been cut in half.  His shooting percentages have fallen even worse than Garnett's.

On the other hand, Glen Davis and Marquis Daniels have put in some excellent minutes off the bench.  Davis has a 20-point differential in his Offensive and Defensive Ratings while Daniels has an 18-point differential. 

Nate Robinson has struggled to provide productive minutes.  His 2.4 PER and -25 differential are atrocious.  Of course, he can't seem to throw the ball in the ocean.

What have you seen from the Celtics that you've liked or not liked so far this season?  What do you think they need to focus on to keep improving and earn a high seed in the playoffs?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Boston Celtics - Better or Worse?

The Celtics are coming off an excellent season where they took the Los Angeles Lakers to the brink during a thrilling, but odd, NBA Finals.  Heading into the offseason they were at a fork in the road.  The two options were to either make one more run or start to tear down and rebuild.  The Celtics chose to make another run and brought back coach Doc Rivers along with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce.  How do they look for 2010?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Rajon Rondo (#2 PG, Level 1), Nate Robinson (#34 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Rajon Rondo (#2 PG, Level 1), Nate Robinson (#34 PG, Level 6)

There will be no changes at the point guard position for the Celtics.  Rondo was a huge contributor in the playoffs and I think he can be expected to bear a bigger load for Boston.  Having Robinson from the beginning of the season will help as well.

Photo source: walknboston

Shooting Guard
2009 - Ray Allen (#6 SG, Level 3), Tony Allen (#25 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Ray Allen (#6 SG, Level 3), Delonte West (#21 SG, Level 5)

Ray Allen is back at shooting guard for the Celtics, but Tony Allen has taken the money and moved on to the Memphis Grizzlies.  Boston made a good move in bringing West in as the backup.  He can't be expected to be the stellar defender that Tony Allen was but he should add something on the offensive end, especially if he can get his three point percentage back up into the high 30s. 

Small Forward
2009 - Paul Pierce (#5 SF, Level 3)
2010 - Paul Pierce (#5 SF, Level 3)

Never was there a doubt that Pierce would resign with Boston. 

Power Forward
2009 - Kevin Garnett (#2 PF, Level 2), Glen Davis (#59 PF, Level 10)
2010 - Kevin Garnett (#2 PF, Level 2), Glen Davis (#59 PF, Level 10)

The Celtics head into 2010 with the same two-deep plan at power forward.  Davis had some excellent flashes of skill during the Finals.

Center
2009 - Kendrick Perkins (#19 C, Level 5), Rasheed Wallace (#35 C, Level 7)
2010 - Kendrick Perkins (#19 C, Level 5, Shaquille O'Neal (#21 C, Level 5), Jermaine O'Neal (#15, Level 4)

Because of the Perkins injury the Celtics had some work to do to solidify the center position.  They did so by adding the two O'Neals.  I was quite surprised when I did the calculations and saw Jermaine's numbers.  His regular season last year was much more respectable than I thought.

Overall
After winning the Atlantic division with a 50-32 record the Celtics really started to excel in the playoffs, exactly how Doc Rivers planned it.  I expect them to approach the regular season in a similar way in 2010.  They'll have a lot of continuity, but with aging players I expect some of the skill to fade.  However, a consistent jump in Rondo's play could make up for it.  According to my formula, they stay the same at point guard, small forward and power forward.  They'll pick up a win at center and lose one at shooting guard.  I think Rondo's evolution and a bad division will be good for an additional win.

In the final verdict the Celtics are BETTER.  As they are now I predict their record to be 51-31.

NBA Point Guards 2010 Rankings Analysis

Yesterday I posted the cumulative rankings of NBA point guards based on their play last season using the combination of five different statistical evaluations.  Today I'll share my thoughts on the data.

• There are clear differences between the levels of point guard quality.  The top levels seem to come in groups of four to five.  For instance, based on the cumulative numbers, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul and Jason Kidd are clearly at the top level.  Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Luke Ridnour make up the second level.  Raymond Felton, Derrick Rose, Lou Williams and Baron Davis make up the third level.  After that they are bunched up much more.
• Rondo didn't seem to get a lot of notice until the playoffs, but it's clear from these rankings that he deserved it for his excellent regular season.  I was surprised that he finished just one point below Deron Williams.
• Other guys that surprised me with how high they are ranked - Luke Ridnour, Lou Williams, Ty Lawson, Jason Williams, Kyle Lowry and George Hill.
• I was surprised at how low these players ranked - Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Tony Parker, Brandon Jennings and Darren Collison.  In fairness to Evans, Jennings and Collison, it was their rookie season.
• Deron Williams did not rank first in any of the five evaluation methods but still ranked first overall.  Rondo ranked first in both the Defensive Rating and WARP.  Paul was first in PER and Offensive Rating, but hurt by his 28th ranking in the Defensive Rating.  Nash was first in the Simple Rating and second in PER, Offensive Rating and WARP, but his 62nd ranking in Defensive Rating hurt him.
• I know the Timberwolves already have too many point guards, but their signing of Luke Ridnour could be the steal of free agency.  To get the ninth ranked point guard in the NBA for $16 million over four years is a great deal.  How that affects Johnny Flynn will be very interesting to watch.
• Right now it looks like the Bobcats are taking a real chance at the point.  D.J. Augustin did not have a good year and they lost Raymond Felton, who can probably be labeled as underappreciated based on his #10 ranking.  They also seem to be relying a lot on the hope that newly signed backup Shaun Livingston will start reaching his potential.

What player rankings surprise you the most?