Cleveland Cavaliers - Better or Worse

The walls came crashing down on the Cavs in July when LeBron James announced that he was leaving Cleveland for the city of sun and fun.  After it finally set in that the best player in the game was not going to be coming back next season, the new management team tried to do what they could to fortify the team.  By that point their options were extremely limited though because they had approached all prior roster changes with the expectation that LeBron would return.  What will this season look like for the Cavaliers?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: dfornal

Point Guard
2009 - Mo Williams (#16 PG, Level 4), Daniel Gibson (#37 PG, Level 7)
2010 - Mo Williams (#16 PG, Level 4), Ramon Sessions (#49 PG, Level 9)

While he couldn't seem to hit baskets when they really mattered, Williams had a good regular season.  Sessions was not properly used in Minnesota after playing quite well in Milwaukee.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Anthony Parker (#38 SG, Level 7), Delonte West (#21 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Anthony Parker (#38 SG, Level 7), Daniel Gibson (#37 PG, Level 7)

Parker shot well from three-point range and played good defense but was otherwise along for the ride last year.  Mo Williams will likely get a good number of minutes at the two this season.

Small Forward
2009 - LeBron James (#1 SF, Level 1), Jamario Moon (#18 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Jamario Moon (#18 SF, Level 5), Joey Graham (#59 SG, Level 9)

There will clearly be a huge drop off in production at small forward for the Cavs this season.  Moon's '09-'10 ranking is in large part due to his #4 Defensive Rating among small forwards, which was aided by the presence of LeBron.

Power Forward
2009 - Antawn Jamison (#24 PF, Level 5), Anderson Varejao (#7 PF, Level 2)
2010 - Antawn Jamison (#24 PF, Level 5), J.J. Hickson (#44 PF, Level 7)

Jamison was brought in as a key piece to help Cleveland get over the hump and win a title.  He never seemed to fit into the offense.  Hickson was excellent at some points and clueless at others.  Neither played well as the Cavs ship was going down against the Celtics.

Center
2009 - Shaquille O'Neal (#21 C, Level 5), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (#46 C, Level 8)
2010 - Anderson Varejao (#7 PF, Level 2), Ryan Hollins (#55 C, Below level)

Shaq was a productive starter last year while Ilgauskas put in good minutes when healthy.  Varejao needs to be just as steady at the five as he was at the four, but his game will suffer without LeBron.  Hollins has had very little impact in four years in the NBA.

Overall

The Cavs are a tough team to judge.  It's clear that they will take a big fall from last year but it's hard to quantify the number of victories that LeBron was worth.  Worse for Cavs fans is that they have very little in the way of talented youth to build the team up with for the future - maybe Hickson and Sessions.

Cleveland finished the '09-'10 season with a 61-21 record.  With their projected lineup I have them dropping 20 wins at small forward, four at power forward, two at point guard, two at center and two at shooting guard.  Much of the drop I'm projecting in the four positions other than small forward is attributed to the "LeBron effect."

In the final verdict the Cavaliers are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict that they will finish the season at 31-51.  That's probably high, but that's what I've got.

Let me know if you think my prediction is high or low by posting a comment below.

Detroit Pistons - Better or Worse

After a long run as one of the Eastern Conference elite the Pistons have fallen quickly the last two years.  They made a couple of big signings before last season, Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, but neither really panned out.  With injuries mixed in with a lack of chemistry, Detroit could not get it together in the '09-'10 campaign.  They made a few moves in an effort to help fortify the team in the offseason.  Will it be enough to force a return to playoff contention?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: farlane

Point Guard
2009 - Rodney Stuckey (#29 PG, Level 6), Will Bynum (#52 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Rodney Stuckey (#29 PG, Level 6), Will Bynum (#52 PG, Level 10)

There will be no change in the depth chart at point guard next season.  Stuckey took a big step last year toward becoming the player the Pistons hoped he would be when they drafted him three years ago.  But he is more of a shoot first type of player.  Bynum is a solid backup who brings excellent energy off the bench in more of a traditional point guard role.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Richard Hamilton (#40 SG, Level 7), Ben Gordon (#47 SG, Level 8)
2010 - Richard Hamilton (#40 SG, Level 7), Ben Gordon (#47 SG, Level 8)

The Pistons did not get the level of production from the shooting guard position that they had hoped for last season.  It's not so much the offensive side of the ball where they struggled, although both Hamilton and Gordon saw their field goal percentages drop drastically, but the defensive side. 

Small Forward
2009 - Tayshaun Prince (#16 SF, Level 5), Austin Daye (#40 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Tayshaun Prince (#16 SF, Level 5), Tracy McGrady (#56 SG, Level 9)

Continuing to be underappreciated, Prince had a productive year while consistently being mentioned in trade rumors.  The Pistons should not cut in to Daye's development playing time for McGrady.

Power Forward
2009 - Jonas Jerebko (#46 PF, Level 7), Charlie Villanueva (#54 PF, Level 8)
2010 - Charlie Villanueva (#54 PF, Level 8), Chris Wilcox (Did not qualify)

Just this week Jerebko was injured and looks to be out five to six months.  That is unfortunate for the Pistons to say the least.  It looks like they will now have to count more on Villanueva than expected.  Wilcox missed most of last year with injuries.

Center
2009 - Ben Wallace (#14 C, Level 4), Jason Maxiell (#56 PF, Level 9)
2010 - Ben Wallace (#14 C, Level 4), Greg Monroe (Rookie)

A return to Detroit led to a revitalization for Wallace last season.  The Pistons will hope for that to continue this year as they work lottery pick Monroe into the rotation.  He will bring an excellent low post passing presence to the offense.

Overall
The Pistons biggest struggle in the '09-'10 season came on the offensive end of the court.  They finished 29th in the NBA in points per game and 30th in three-point field-goal percentage. To be successful this season they'll need their guards to start hitting the outside shot more consistently.  They also need McGrady to give them some pop off the bench and Monroe to come in and generate some offense through the low and high posts.

Last year Detroit finished with a 27-55 record.  With their projected lineup as it is, I expect the Pistons to be even at every position.  I just think that any improvement will be offset by the aging of some of their key pieces.

In the final verdict the Pistons are the SAME.  As they are currently constructed I predict they will again finish with a 27-55 record.

Indiana Pacers - Better or Worse

Photo source: KaCey97007

Indiana has been hovering just below mediocrity for some years but dropped a little further below it last year.  They did not do much to change their roster until late in the offseason when they traded for point man Darren Collison.  The Pacers had seemingly been positioning themselves to be players in the free agent market after this season.  But now that they have their general in Collison it will be interesting to watch what direction they go.  How do they look right now for this season?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Earl Watson (#47 PG, Level 9), T.J. Ford (#44 PG, Level 9)
2010 - Darren Collison (#31 PG, Level 6), T.J. Ford (#44 PG, Level 9)

Collison is an even bigger upgrade than the numbers show.  His stats are limited because he did not start consistently getting bigger minutes until after the mid-point of the season.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Brandon Rush (#68 SG, Below level), Dahntay Jones (#64 SG, Below level)
2010 - Brandon Rush (#68 SG, Below level), Mike Dunleavy (#27 SF, Level 6)

This has to be the last shot for Rush.  He got a lot of minutes last year and put up very little production.  When healthy Dunleavy can be a good backup.

Small Forward
2009 - Danny Granger (#7 SF, Level 3), Mike Dunleavey (#27 SF, Level 6)
2010 - Danny Granger (#7 SF, Level 3), James Posey (#53 SF, Level 10)

Though he missed 20 games and was playing hurt for a few more, Granger had a solid '09-'10 campaign.  Posey, who was part of the Collison deal, really fell off last year.  The Pacers are hoping he'll be revitalized in Indiana.

Power Forward
2009 - Troy Murphy (#16 PF, Level 4), Josh McRoberts (#33 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Tyler Hansbrough (#55 PF, Level 9), Josh McRoberts (#33 PF, Level 6)

You can expect a drop in production at the power forward position after Murphy was traded to get Collison.  The two-deep here could easily be flipped.  Hansborough's ability at the NBA level is still unknown after he suffered from an odd case of vertigo in his rookie year.  McRoberts is a quality backup.

Center
2009 - Roy Hibbert (#27 C, Level 5), Solomon Jones (#54 C, Below level)
2010 - Roy Hibbert (#27 C, Level 5), Jeff Foster (Did not qualify last year)

Hibbert improved in almost every statistical category last season.  He needs to continue that development in his third year in the NBA.  Foster missed most of the '09-'10 season with a back injury.

Overall
Indiana may have been better off in the long run if management let the team hit rock bottom this season and re-armed the squad in 2011.  But Larry Bird and Jim O'Brien were not content to let that happen.  They sacrificed the power forward position to improve at point guard.  To what scale that move hurts them or helps them will have a large effect on this season.

The Pacers finished last season at 32-50.  Based on their projected lineup I've got them picking up four wins at point guard, one at shooting guard, one at small forward and one at center while losing four at power forward.

In the final verdict the Pacers are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict they will have a 35-47 record.  That leaves them somewhere between challenging for a playoff spot and the flotsam and jetsam of the Eastern Conference.

Milwaukee Bucks - Better or Worse

Milwaukee had their best record of the decade last season and then forced the Atlanta Hawks into a tough seven game first round playoff series.  One of their biggest challenges was scoring, so they traded for Corey Maggette in the offseason and signed Drew Gooden to provide low post punch.  Most importantly, they resigned swingman John Salmons who provided a big boost to the Bucks when he arrived in a midseason trade.  Will these moves be enough for Milwaukee to take a step to the next level?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source:  U.S. Army Environmental Command

Point Guard
2009 - Brandon Jennings (#23 PG, Level 5), Luke Ridnour (#8 PG, Level 2)
2010 - Brandon Jennings (#23 PG, Level 5), Keyon Dooling (#49 SG, Level 8)

Jennings made a huge splash in his first year but like most rookies he suffered from inconsistency.  His development this season will be a key to the Bucks success.  Ridnour was severely underrated as a backup.  Dooling is serviceable.

Shooting Guard
2009 - John Salmons (#8 SG, Level 3), Jerry Stackhouse (#45 SG, Level 8)
2010 - John Salmons (#8 SG, Level 3), Chris Douglas-Roberts (#54 SF, Below level)

A full season of Salmons will make a clear difference.  Stackhouse was a solid veteran presence that will be missed.  The Bucks will hope to get something from Michael Redd deeper into the season.

Small Forward
2009 - Carlos Delfino (#20 SF, Level 5), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (#26 SF, Level 6)
2010 - Corey Maggette (#14 SF, Level 4), Carlos Delfino (#20 SF, Level 5)

It will be interesting to see how Maggette fits into the hard-working, defensive-oriented culture of Milwaukee.  The Bucks got solid play at this position last year.  Delfino's versatility will enable him to get minutes at two or three positions.

Power Forward
2009 - Ersan Ilyasova (#19 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (#26 SF, Level 6), Ersan Ilyasova (#19 PF, Level 5)

The minutes distribution at the four for Milwaukee this season will likely be very similar to last season.  I believe Mbah a Moute will start because of his defensive ability.

Center
2009 - Andrew Bogut (#6 C, Level 2), Kurt Thomas (#50 C, Level 9)
2010 - Andrew Bogut (#6 C, Level 2), Drew Gooden (#36 PF, Level 6)

Bogut had a breakout season last year and should continue to be a force if he can stay healthy.  While not a traditional center, Gooden may get as much playing time at the five as he does the four because there's no clear backup.

Overall
The Bucks hope to build on last year's solid season and challenge the Bulls for the the Central Division title.  They have a solid nucleus in place.  If those key players continue to develop and the new pieces around them fit in well, Milwaukee could jump into the top half of the Eastern Conference playoff teams.

The Bucks put up a 46-36 record in 2009-2010.  Based on their projected 2010 lineup I've got them picking up one win at shooting guard, one and a half wins at small forward and half a win at center.  I think they'll come out even at point guard and center.

In the final verdict the Bucks are BETTER.  As they are now I predict their record will be 49-33 this season.  That would put them just one game behind my projected record for the Bulls.

Chicago Bulls - Better or Worse?

After a wild season in which they won 10 of their last 14 games to salvage a playoff spot after losing 10 in row to almost give it away, the Bulls went into the offseason with the money to make a splash and attractive pieces already in place. They made the moves they needed to in order to dump salary but in the end they were unable to bring in a top two or three player. They did "settle" for Carlos Boozer, who is a pretty good consolation prize. Unfortunately it was announced yesterday that he broke his hand and will miss around eight weeks. How will the Bulls fare in the 2010-2011 season?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: BrentDPayne

Point Guard
2009 - Derrick Rose (#11 PG, Level 3), Jannero Pargo (#60 PG, Below level)
2010 - Derrick Rose (#11 PG, Level 3), C.J. Watson (#29 PG, Level 6)

Rose was ranked among the top half of point guards last season and should move into the top 10 this season. The signing of Watson could prove to be the best under the radar move of the offseason.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Kirk Hinrich (#39 SG, Level 7), Ronald Murray (#54 SG, Level 9)
2010 - Ronnie Brewer (#32 SG, Level 7), Kyle Korver (#16 SG, Level 4)

Chicago upgraded the two guard position at both starter and backup. Korver is coming off a sneaky good season. If he can stay healthy he'll add an important three point shooting dimension to the offense.

Small Forward
2009 - Luol Deng (#11 SF, Level 4), James Johnson (#47 SF, Level 10)
2010 - Luol Deng (#11 SF, Level 4), James Johnson (#47 SF, Level 10)

This is the one position where the two-deep will not change from last season.

Power Forward
2009 - Taj Gibson (#41 PF, Level 7), Hakim Warrick (#42 PF, Level 7)
2010 - Carlos Boozer (#6 PF, Level 2), Taj Gibson (#42 PF, Level 7)

Boozer gives the Bulls an impactful improvement at the four, but that will be tempered a bit by the injury.

Center
2009 - Joakim Noah (#11 C, Level 3), Brad Miller (#43 C, Level 8)
2010 - Joakim Noah (#11 C, Level 3), Kurt Thomas (#50 C, Level 9)

Now that he's gotten his extension, it is important that Noah takes another step forward in his development. They may miss the versatility of Miller, but Thomas is a solid backup.

Overall
Although they did not get LeBron or D Wade, the Bulls made a lot of solid moves to improve this offseason. If the new pieces can gel with the existing talent, Chicago should win the Central Division and earn a home playoff series or two.

Last season the Bulls finished with a 41-41 record. Based on their projected lineup for the 2010-2011 season I've got them picking up three wins at point guard, three wins at shooting guard and three wins at power forward (would have been five without the Boozer injury) while staying even at small forward and center.

In the final verdict the Bulls are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 50-32.

Does that prediction sound about right or do you think I'm off? Do you like the moves the Bulls made in the offseason? Post a comment below and let me know your thoughts.

Washington Wizards - Better or Worse

The Wizards have had a rough couple of years.  They've only won 45 games in the last two seasons combined.  Last year they were team turmoil with Gilbert Arenas and his gun issues.  Arenas used to be Mr. Dependable, but he has played in 47 games in the past three seasons combined.  The good news is that their season ended on a high note - that's if you count the lottery as part of the season.  They won it and the opportunity to take John Wall first overall in the 2010 NBA Draft.  Will Wall be enough to put this Washington team back into contention?  Let's take a look.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Gilbert Arenas (#23 PG, Level 5), Shaun Livingston (#45 PG, Level 9)
2010 - John Wall (Rookie), Kirk Hinrich (#39 SG, Level 7)

Rookie phenom Wall will bring a much greater element of playmaking to Washington. Hinrich should provide a steady hand off the bench along with some leadership.

Photo source: enviziondotnet

Shooting Guard
2009 - Mike Miller (#23 SG, Level 5), Randy Foye (#44 SG, Level 8)
2010 - Gilbert Arenas (#23 PG, Level 5), Nick Young (#63 SG, Level 10)

Miller played respectably, but the Wizards are hoping that the return of Arenas will improve the production at the two guard.  They also need Young to take a jump in his fourth year.

Small Forward
2009 - Josh Howard (#39 SF, Level 9), Al Thornton (#49 SF, Level 10)
2010 - Al Thornton (#49 SF, Level 10), Josh Howard (#39 SF, Level 9)

This position was unsettled throughout the '09-'10 season with many players getting some run, including those who were traded and those that arrived via trade.  Howard is going to miss the beginning of the season with a knee injury so Thornton will get a majority of the playing time.

Power Forward
2009 - Andray Blatche (#27 PF, Level 6), James Singleton (#60 PF, Level 10)
2010 - Andray Blatche (#27 PF, Level 6), Yi Jianlian (#61 PF, below level)

Blatche's game matured a great deal last year.  To be competitive the Wizards need him to take an even bigger step forward this season.  Yi has not lived up to the billing that was given to him when he came in the league but he did play well in the World Championships this summer.

Center
2009 - JaVale McGee (#29 C, Level 6), Fabricio Oberto (#56, below level)
2010 -  JaVale McGee (#29 C, Level 6), Hilton Armstrong (did not qualify)

McGee was somewhat of a revelation during the Team USA World Championship tryouts.  He nearly forced his way onto the roster with his athletic play.  He needs to continue to grow in his third year in the Association and should get a boost from playing with Wall - specifically I'm thinking alley-oop.

Overall
With Wall, Blatche and McGee on board as the future of the franchise Washington looks to now be moving in the right direction.  They need to resist any urge to win now and focus on playing those three big minutes to help them develop.  It will be very interesting to see what happens with Arenas this season.  Will he be okay with his new role?  Will Washington look to trade him? 

The Wizards finished with a 26-56 record last season.  Predicting what they will do this year is a bit of a guessing game based on the impact of Wall and development of a few others.  I've got them picking up two wins at point guard and one win each at shooting guard, power forward and center while staying even at small forward.

In the final verdict the Wizards are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict their record will be 31-51.

Do you think the Wizards will be better or worse in the 2010-2011 season?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Charlotte Bobcats - Better or Worse

Photo source: contemplicity

Charlotte took another step in the right direction last season.  For the first time in their six year history they finished with a record above .500 and made the playoffs.  They've built their team through the trade market over the past couple of years to match head coach Larry Brown's playing style.  They've tried to tweak it even more during the offseason by getting involved in multiple team trades, but so far none of those deals have come to fruition.  Are additional moves necessary or are the Bobcats positioned for success?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Raymond Felton (#10 PG, Level 3), D.J. Augustin (#46 PG, Level 9)
2010 - D.J. Augustin (#46 PG, Level 9), Shaun Livingston (#45 PG, Level 9)

Point guard is the position the Bobcats have been looking to improve through trades, and for good reason.  They lost Felton to free agency and now need either Augustin to make a huge improvement or Livingston to reach the potential that injuries have prevented him from reaching.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Stephen Jackson (#15 SG, Level 4), Larry Hughes (#50 SG, Level 8)
2010 - Stephen Jackson (#15 SG, Level 4), Gerald Henderson (did not qualify in '09)

There will not be many minutes to be found behind Jackson, but those that are available are likely to go to second year man Henderson who struggled to find playing time as a rookie.  Concerns should exist about Jackson's age catching up with him.

Small Forward
2009 - Gerald Wallace (#4 SF, Level 2), Stephen Graham (#43 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Gerald Wallace (#4 SF, Level 2), Derrick Brown (#52 PF, Level 8)

Even fewer minutes will be available at small forward.  Wallace averaged 41.0 minutes a game last year while performing as well as any small forward in the league not named LeBron or Durant.

Power Forward
2009 - Boris Diaw (#43 PF, Level 7), Tyrus Thomas (#22 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Tyrus Thomas (#22 PF, Level 5), Boris Diaw (#43 PF, Level 7)

Thomas came in just before the trade deadline and played well for the Bobcats.  They rewarded him with a five-year contract.  Now it's time for him to step his game up.  Diaw played poorly last season and Charlotte has been trying to unload him.

Center
2009 - Nazr Mohammed (#8 C, Level 3), Tyson Chandler (#34 C, Level 7), Theo Ratliff (#49 C, Level 8)
2010 - Nazr Mohammed (#8 C, Level 3), DeSagana Diop (did not qualify in '09)

A weird mix of big men played for the Bobcats at center last season.  The Tyson Chandler experiment is over as they traded him to Dallas in what was basically a salary dump.  Mohammed was very productive in limited time in '09-'10.

Overall
The Bobcats had a 44-38 record in the '09-'10 season.  They lost a big piece in Felton and have really done nothing to improve their team.  Meanwhile, one of their divisional foes, the Miami Heat, have improved dramatically.  They were 3-1 against the Heat last year but that is likely to reverse in the '10-'11 season.  To maintain their standing the Bobcats will need to see major production from Augustin or Livingston at the point, while Thomas takes a big step forward at the four.  Of course, they may also, finally, secure a point guard through a trade.  But, as they are now, I've got them picking up two wins at the power forward position, staying even at shooting guard and small forward, and losing five at point guard and one at center.

In the final verdict the Bobcats are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict their record to be 40-42.

What do you think?  Am I too cynical about the Bobcats?  Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.