NBA Western Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

Yesterday I posted the roster I think should be representing the Eastern Conference in Sunday's NBA All Star Game.  Today I'm moving on to the Western Conference.  While there were only two roster spots that I would switch out in the East, I'd make twice as many changes in the West.

Photo source: johanohrling

Based on production and efficiency, here's my Western Conference starting five:
G: Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
G: Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
F: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F: Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
C: Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks

My Western Conference starting lineup only includes one of the same players as the starters that the fans voted into the game - Paul.  I'm picking Ginobili over Kobe Bryant at the other guard.  Check out my mid-season shooting guard rankings to see why. 

I've also got Nowitzki and Gasol over Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant at the forward positions.  At center I've got Chandler over Yao Ming, who is injured anyway.  Why Chandler?  Check out my mid-season center rankings where he is the top-rated center in the West.

As for the reserves, here are my seven:
G: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
G: Eric Gordon, Los Angeles Clippers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
C: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
F: David West, New Orleans Hornets
G: Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets

So not only would Anthony not start, he'd be left off my roster completely.  In fact, he's not even the next small forward in line - that would be Rudy Gay. 

Also controversial - I have Gordon and Martin making the team over Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams.  Sure it's hard to believe,but when you compare their production and efficiency Gordon and Martin come out on top.

The final difference is West making the team over Blake Griffin.  I love what Griffin is doing but West beats him out in my mid-season power forward rankings.  However, this one's hard to argue - Griffin is leading West in four of the five advanced statistical categories I include in my rankings.  It's West's huge advantage in Defensive Rating that puts him ahead of Griffin in the cumulative rankings.

Los Angeles Clippers - Better or Worse

After two absolutely miserable seasons that included a combined 42 wins, the Clippers looked to be much improved going into the 2009-2010 campaign, with whispers of playoff contention floating around.  And why not, they appeared to have a solid nucleus and new number one pick Blake Griffin to step up the intensity.  But sadly, it was business as usual for the other team in Los Angeles.  Griffin was hurt seriously right before the season started and did not play a game.  The poor play on the court was only outpaced by the shenanigans behind the scenes with Mike Dunleavy and Donald Sterling.  Now, Griffin is back and healthy for the upcoming season.  Will that be enough to force people to start using "Clippers" and "playoff contention" in the same sentence again?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: prayitno

Point Guard
2009 - Baron Davis (#13 PG, Level 3), Steve Blake (#54 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Baron Davis (#13 PG, Level 3), Eric Bledsoe (Rookie)

Baron Davis is not the Baron Davis of a few years ago, but he was still good enough to rank just outside the top 10 NBA point guards.  I expect his skills to decline further in 2010-11.  Over the course of last season three different guys served as his primary backup.  Bledsoe could bring a lot of speed and excitement but is very raw.  Net losses - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Eric Gordon (#33 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Eric Gordon (#33 SG, Level 7), Randy Foye (#44 SG, Level 8)

Injuries slowed Gordon's development last year.  He played quite well for Team USA over the summer and I expect a nice leap from him this season.  Rasual Butler played most of the other minutes available at the two last season.  The Clippers have brought Foye in to add more punch off the bench.  Net wins - 5.

Small Forward
2009 - Rasual Butler (#62 SG, Level 10), Travis Outlaw (#33 SF, Level 7)
2010 - Ryan Gomes (#46 SF, Level 10), Al-Farouq Aminu (Rookie)

It's hard to tell what to make of the small forward position for the Clippers.  Gomes is not really an improvement over what they had there and Aminu is too young to contribute meaningfully, especially at a new position.  Still I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and a tick in the positive column.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Drew Gooden (#36 PF, Level 6), Craig Smith (#28 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Blake Griffin (Rookie), Craig Smith (#28 PF, Level 6)

Technically, Griffin will be a rookie this season.  Gooden and Smith ably held down the four last year as they were waiting for Griffin.  Smith is a very capable back up and a productive player that L.A. wisely brought back.  Net wins - 3.

Center
2009 - Chris Kaman (#32 C, Level 7), DeAndre Jordan (#53 C, Level 10)
2010 - Chris Kaman (#32 C, Level 7), DeAndre Jordan (#53 C, Level 10)

The Clippers return the same two-deep from last season, and that's a good thing.  Kaman had a solid 2009-10 and should still be improving in the next year or two before hitting his ceiling.  He should be helped by having a beast like Griffin on the block alongside him.  Jordan can serve as a pesky last line of defense when inserted into the lineup as he continues to develop in his third year.  Net wins - 2.

Overall
The Clippers had a good draft and now have an excellent group of young players in Griffin, Gordon, Bledsoe, Aminu and Jordan to develop alongside their veterans.  The key word there is develop because the success of the season will lie in how quickly they can get the youngest youngsters up to NBA speed and the ones expected to have a big impact to the next level.  Scoring and turnovers were the biggest thorns in the Clippers' side in 2009-10.  If Gordon and Griffin can stay healthy, they will certainly give a boost to the scoring.  I'm not sure anything was done to help in the turnover department.

L.A. finished last season with a 29-53 record.  I've got them picking up five wins at shooting guard, three at power forward, two at center and one at small forward while losing one at point guard.

In the final verdict the Clippers are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I project that they will finish the season at 39-43.

How does that record sound to you?  Too high?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.