(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: prayitno |
Point Guard
2009 - Baron Davis (#13 PG, Level 3), Steve Blake (#54 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Baron Davis (#13 PG, Level 3), Eric Bledsoe (Rookie)
Baron Davis is not the Baron Davis of a few years ago, but he was still good enough to rank just outside the top 10 NBA point guards. I expect his skills to decline further in 2010-11. Over the course of last season three different guys served as his primary backup. Bledsoe could bring a lot of speed and excitement but is very raw. Net losses - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Eric Gordon (#33 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Eric Gordon (#33 SG, Level 7), Randy Foye (#44 SG, Level 8)
Injuries slowed Gordon's development last year. He played quite well for Team USA over the summer and I expect a nice leap from him this season. Rasual Butler played most of the other minutes available at the two last season. The Clippers have brought Foye in to add more punch off the bench. Net wins - 5.
Small Forward
2009 - Rasual Butler (#62 SG, Level 10), Travis Outlaw (#33 SF, Level 7)
2010 - Ryan Gomes (#46 SF, Level 10), Al-Farouq Aminu (Rookie)
It's hard to tell what to make of the small forward position for the Clippers. Gomes is not really an improvement over what they had there and Aminu is too young to contribute meaningfully, especially at a new position. Still I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and a tick in the positive column. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Drew Gooden (#36 PF, Level 6), Craig Smith (#28 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Blake Griffin (Rookie), Craig Smith (#28 PF, Level 6)
Technically, Griffin will be a rookie this season. Gooden and Smith ably held down the four last year as they were waiting for Griffin. Smith is a very capable back up and a productive player that L.A. wisely brought back. Net wins - 3.
Center
2009 - Chris Kaman (#32 C, Level 7), DeAndre Jordan (#53 C, Level 10)
2010 - Chris Kaman (#32 C, Level 7), DeAndre Jordan (#53 C, Level 10)
The Clippers return the same two-deep from last season, and that's a good thing. Kaman had a solid 2009-10 and should still be improving in the next year or two before hitting his ceiling. He should be helped by having a beast like Griffin on the block alongside him. Jordan can serve as a pesky last line of defense when inserted into the lineup as he continues to develop in his third year. Net wins - 2.
Overall
The Clippers had a good draft and now have an excellent group of young players in Griffin, Gordon, Bledsoe, Aminu and Jordan to develop alongside their veterans. The key word there is develop because the success of the season will lie in how quickly they can get the youngest youngsters up to NBA speed and the ones expected to have a big impact to the next level. Scoring and turnovers were the biggest thorns in the Clippers' side in 2009-10. If Gordon and Griffin can stay healthy, they will certainly give a boost to the scoring. I'm not sure anything was done to help in the turnover department.
L.A. finished last season with a 29-53 record. I've got them picking up five wins at shooting guard, three at power forward, two at center and one at small forward while losing one at point guard.
In the final verdict the Clippers are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I project that they will finish the season at 39-43.
How does that record sound to you? Too high? Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.
Interesting writeup. Most people seem to be expecting a leap from Gordon, but I don't see any hard evidence for that. He still can't handle the ball, still doesn't rebound, and is still 6'2", a fact that Afflalo made painfully obvious the other night. On the other hand, we are told that he has more 'swagger', got valuable experience with TeamUSA, having made a good percentage of wide-open long NBA 2-point shots.
ReplyDeleteI hope you are the one who is right. But for him to add five wins, he's going to have a new interest in rebounds, steals, and chasing down loose balls. He's not a ballhandler/playmaker so probably won't add assists. From what I've seen in player development, you either have a nose for the ball, or you don't. Dwyane Wade does, for example. He wants every ball. Gordon is content stand at the 3-pt line and let others skin their knees.
Gordon +1.5 Wins. On the basis of reasonable incremental development and slightly improved shooting.
Agree on -1 at PG. Baron has no real backup.
ReplyDeleteSF is a push, unless AFA shows he can play the position. I believe AFA can already add wins as a PF.
I'd go +5 at PF because I'm putting AFA here and I think he's got post moves that Griffin does not, and he'll add more athletic high-percentage dunks.
I'm going -4 at center because we've swapped Camby for Collins. +1 for Kaman who looks fit and ready. I supposed we'll have to count of Griffin for interior D now.
I'll round that out to 32 wins.
Thanks for the comments J. Glanton. You could very well be right - I may be too optimistic on Gordon. I may have just seen all of his best moments from Team USA.
ReplyDeleteGood point about Camby. I just went back and looked - I didn't realize he had played 51 games for the Clips - that is significant. Although, I think Griffin can make up for some of that.
the record from last year really isnt their true record... as to say wat they had the potential to have. u got to remember they were barely under 500. mid way thru the season notching consecutive wins over the blazers, celtics and lakers. then they fell south, blake was out indefinitly, kaman hurt back that ver next day, the trade camby the day after that and dunleavy quits the day after. (maybe not all day after day, but definitly with in a weeks span) and from there they thru in the towel. and notched only 10 wins over the next 40 games by half hearted players and a horrible coaching staff.
ReplyDeletewith that said, with the new spirit they have they will definintly be in the 40-49 wins category. blake's attitude is contagious and will def rub off on the other players esp baron who is still a top 8 point gaurd WHEN HE WANTS TO BE AND IT MOTIVATED ENOUGH. i just hope he is.
besides that great article..
Thanks for the comment Tony Park - those are good points you bring up. I think it will be hard for Griffin to influence the team to that level as a rookie. If he can he'll be a runaway ROY. You mention coaching staffs, it will be interesting to see how Vinny does in L.A. after the trials and tribulations he had in Chicago.
ReplyDeleteA lot of Clippers fans use the fact that they were 17-18 as a sign that they were a better team than their 29 wins record. Usually accompanied by talk about problems with their emotional state, quitting on the coach, Baron quitting, or whatever.
ReplyDeleteHowever.
At that time, they only had 5 road wins. Mostly agains weak teams. That made them one of the bottom tier teams at that point in the season. I'm not going to do it now, but last year I ran the numbers that show that a team with 5 road wins, 4 against sub .500 teams, in their first 35 games would be projected win about 33 games. They also had a favorable schedule up to that point with 11 of the next 14 games on the road, finishing with a 21-28 record that was more commensurate with this team's makeup. Then you trade away Camby after 51 games, the rock that kept things together on the road as much as possible, and you fall short of that projected 33 win mark.
Bottom line: at the 35 game mark the Clippers were not a .500 team.
Last season's preseason Wins Produced number fot that team, without Blake Griffin, was 24 games. So you could say that they overachieved, that they didn't quit early. With Griffin, it would have been 35 games.
If there's anybody out there who still thinks that Blake Griffin is an unpolished rookie, watch him run the pick and roll in this clip. Then think about what other NBA veteran PFs, besides Tim Duncan, are this effective on the pick and roll.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waGsKNURFps&feature=player_embedded
Great inside the numbers look at the true status of the Clippers at the 35 game mark J. Glanton.
ReplyDelete