Memphis Grizzlies - Better or Worse

In most seasons Memphis would have gotten all the pub as a hugely improved team.  But with the Thunder's win total jumping by 27 in 2009-10 the Grizzlies' season over season gain of 16 wins didn't cause the waves it would have otherwise.  Still, it was a marked improvement for a team that had only accumulated 68 wins over the previous three seasons.  That's especially true when you consider that Memphis was 35-32 after the "Allen Iverson Experiment" crashed and burned.  The Grizzlies made minimal moves in the offseason so they'll rely predominantly on player development for a better season in 2010-11.  Will that be enough?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: Rennett Stowe

Point Guard
2009 - Mike Conley (#35 PG, Level 7), Marcus Williams (#65 PG, Below level)
2010 - Mike Conley (#35 PG, Level 7), Acie Law (Not enough minutes to qualify)

This may be the season that Conley has to prove that he can be a better than average point guard.  The biggest problem with Conley is that he has not really improved statistically over the course of his three years in the NBA.  I think that means he is who he is.  I don't expect Law to deliver any meaningful contributions off the bench.  Net wins - 0.

Shooting Guard
2009 - O.J. Mayo (#28 SG, Level 6), Ronnie Brewer (#32 SG, Level 7)
2010 - O.J. Mayo (#28 SG, Level 6), Tony Allen (#25 SG, Level 6)

He's been tagged as having some type of breakout season last year, but in reality Mayo was not that productive.  He did improve his field-goal shooting percentage.  Most of his other statistics were relatively flat.  Allen is an excellent defender and can dunk.  He's very awkward on offense though.  I'll give a slight uptick here for the addition of Allen but I'm not sold that Mayo is interested in getting better.  Net wins - 1/2.

Small Forward
2009 - Rudy Gay (#13 SF, Level 4), Sam Young (#58 SG, Level 9)
2010 - Rudy Gay (#13 SF, Level 4), Sam Young (#58 SG, Level 9)

I don't mean to sound like a broke record, it's just the truth.  Here's another story of a player who's career arc has been essentially flat over the past few years.  In fact, last season Gay put up the lowest three-point shooting percentage of his four years in the NBA.  He leveraged a pretty good season when compared to other NBA small forwards into a max contract.  Young was a decent reserve in his rookie year.  Now that Gay has his big contract I think he's going to slide back a touch.  Net losses - 1/2.

Power Forward
2009 - Zach Randolph (#9 PF, Level 3), DeMarre Carroll (#68 PF, Below level)
2010 - Zach Randolph (#9 PF, Level 3), Darrell Arthur (Not enough minutes to qualify)

In a huge surprise, Randolph had one of the most productive seasons of his 9-year career.  He put up nearly 21 points and 12 rebounds while playing 38 minutes per game over 81 games.  It was a great year and one from which I think he can only go down from in 2010-11.  Arthur is really an unknown at this point.  Net losses - 1.

Center
2009 - Marc Gasol (#10 C, Level 3), Hasheem Thabeet (#30 C, Level 6)
2010 - Marc Gasol (#10 C, Level 3), Hasheem Thabeet (#30 C, Level 6)

Gasol was excellent last season, shooting 58 percent from the field and earning his way to a top 10 ranking among NBA centers.  Thabeet took a lot of heat early in his rookie season for being sent down to the D-League.  When all was said and done he was not horrible.  I like the potential for Gasol's continued development this season.  Net wins - 1.

Overall
Three areas where the Grizzlies really struggled in 2009-10 were three-point shooting, assists and turnovers.  They did nothing to improve any of those three areas with the possible exception of the drafting of Xavier Henry helping them behind the arc.  With the mix of players they have I see dissension written all over this team in 2010-11.  They also will not be able to sneak up on their opponents.

The Grizzlies finished last season at 40-42.  As noted above, I have them adding one win at center and half a win at shooting guard while staying even at point guard and losing one win at power forward and half a win at small forward.

In the final verdict Memphis is the SAME.  As they are currently constructed I project that they will again finish 40-42.

Am I being too harsh on the Grizzlies?  Will their young players break out this season?  Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.