Houston Rockets - Better or Worse

Photo source: the_junes

The Rockets may have gotten more out of their talent than any other team in the NBA last season.  They found out in the summer of 2009 that they would likely be without Yao Ming for all 82 games.  They had issues with Tracy McGrady who they then somehow managed to package in a deal to get solid shooter Kevin Martin.  Through it all the players on the court battled every night and finished two games above .500 and ninth in the Western Conference.  Head coach Rick Adelman deserves a lot of credit for the performance.  Will he be able to get the same effort from this year's group with Yao back on the floor but playing limited minutes?  And will that be enough for Houston to get into the playoffs?  Let's examine the roster.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Aaron Brooks (#27 PG, Level 6), Kyle Lowry (#17 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Aaron Brooks (#27 PG, Level 6), Kyle Lowry (#17 PG, Level 4)

No change in the two deep at the point guard for Houston.  Brooks was outstanding in his third season.  Cutting down his turnovers will help him become even more effective.  Lowry was quite good as well, although his shooting percentage was subpar, especially from behind the arc.  I like a little improvement from Brooks in 2010-11.  Net wins - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Kevin Martin (#12 SG, Level 4), Trevor Ariza (#25 SF, Level 6)
2010 - Kevin Martin (#12 SG, Level 4), Courtney Lee (#42 SG, Level 7)

I'm counting Ariza as a shooting guard because he essentially started most of the season at that position before the trade for Martin.  Ariza shot poorly but was still productive because of his defense and ability to rebound and pass.  Martin can certainly light it up but his recent injury history is a concern.  Lee struggled last year in New Jersey but his performance should be improved in Houston.  I'm also going to factor in something close to a full season from Martin.  Net wins - 2 1/2.

Small Forward
2009 - Shane Battier (#29 SF, Level 7), Chase Budinger (#21 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Shane Battier (#29 SF, Level 7), Chase Budinger (#21 SF, Level 5)

A troubling trend has taken hold with Battier - his field-goal percentage has decreased in each of the last four seasons.  He's still a productive player, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Budinger get the majority of the playing time at the three in 2010-11.  Budinger was effective in limited minutes as a rookie, finishing eight spots above Battier in my small forward rankings.  Net wins - 1/2.

Power Forward
2009 - Luis Scola (#29 PF, Level 6), Jordan Hill (#45 PF, Level 7)
2010 - Luis Scola (#29 PF, Level 6), Patrick Patterson (Rookie)

Scola was solid in his third year in the NBA.  He's also been very dependable, having played in all 246 possible regular season games.  Patterson may be as ready as any NBA rookie not named John Wall to come right in and produce.  Still, I think Scola's production level reached the ceiling last season and that this position will be even.  Net wins - 0.

Center
2009 - Chuck Hayes (#44 C, Level 8), David Andersen (#52 C, Level 10)
2010 - Yao Ming (missed 2009-10 with injury), Brad Miller (#43 C, Level 8)

Even though his playing time will be limited to 24 minutes per game and he will likely sit out one game during each of Houston's back-to-backs, Yao's return from injury is critical to the Rockets' potential for success.  Miller has lost a lot since his heyday but is still a good passer and as a savvy veteran can find ways to put points on the board.  Yao's impact will be muted by his limited playing time, but should still provide a boost.  Net wins - 3.

Overall
Playing small at so many positions last season, the Rockets struggled with rebounding, blocks and getting blocked.  That will change with Yao back in the lineup.  Ultimately the key to Houston's season will be health.  To reach their higher levels of possible production in 2010-11 they need Martin and Yao to stay healthy.  As long as they can do so, the Rockets should be able to take advantage of their depth and have a solid season.

The Rockets finished last season with a 42-40 record.  As I documented above, I have them picking up three wins at center, two and a half at shooting guard, one at point guard and half at small forward while staying even at power forward.

In the final verdict the Rockets are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I project them to have a 49-33 record this season.

What are your thoughts on the Rockets?  Can Yao stay healthy?  What record do you expect them to have in 2010-11.  Let me know by posting a comment below.