Portland Trail Blazers - Better or Worse

The Trail Blazers have been at the top of the future dynasty list since they drafted Greg Oden in 2007.  Unfortunately, Oden has suffered one injury after another and Portland has yet to reach their potential.  In fact, they've yet to win a playoff series.  Oden was playing very well in 2009 before getting hurt in the 21st game of the season and not returning to the court.  His was just one of many injuries the Blazers suffered last season.  Still they managed to win 50 games and grab the sixth playoff seed in the Western Conference.  What could they accomplish if they are able to stay relatively healthy?  Let's take a look at their 2010-11 squad.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: The Intrepid Traveler

Point Guard
2009 - Andre Miller (#6 PG, Level 2), Jerryd Bayless (#39 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Andre Miller (#6 PG, Level 2), Jerryd Bayless (#39 PG, Level 8)

Miller was Portland's rock last year, putting up excellent numbers and averaging more than 30 minutes a game while playing in all 82.  I don't believe he'll be able to sustain that level of production in 2010-11, but I do think that improved play from Bayless, who was respectable in his second year in the NBA, will make up for some of the drop off in Miller's play.  Net losses - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Brandon Roy (#4 SG, Level 2), Rudy Fernandez (#24 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Brandon Roy (#4 SG, Level 2), Rudy Fernandez (#24 SG, Level 6)

Roy was stellar in his fourth year and may still be developing.  Fernandez took a step back in his second year as his shooting percentages dropped by a fairly significant margin.  He was threatening to go to Europe during the offseason but seems to have settled back in.  He would be a huge asset for the Blazers if his level of play returns to that of his rookie year.  Net wins - 1 1/2.

Small Forward
2009 - Martell Webster (#31 SF, Level 7), Nicolas Batum (#6 SF, Level 3)
2010 - Nicolas Batum (#6 SF, Level 3), Wesley Matthews (#31 SG, Level 7)

After just two years, Batum has proven himself to be an excellent three point shooter with a solid all around game.  He was very effective while on the court last season, placing sixth in my small forward rankings and leading the position in the Offensive Rating category.  The Blazers probably overpaid for Matthews, but he was a steady shooter and solid defender in his rookie campaign.  If Batum can stay healthy, this spot should add a couple wins to the bottom line.  Net wins - 2.

Power Forward
2009 - LaMarcus Aldridge (#14 PF, Level 4), Juwan Howard (#63 PF, Below level)
2010 - LaMarcus Aldridge (#14 PF, Level 4), Dante Cunningham (#40 PF, Level 7)

Defense is not his specialty but Aldridge is very good on the offensive end of the court.  Howard was barely more than a body in the backup role.  The Blazers were hoping to have Jeff Pendergraph as the backup at the four, but he's likely out for the season.  Now they turn to Cunningham who had a decent rookie year.  I think Aldridge's production level was about as high as it will get last season while Cunningham should bring a slight improvement to the backup role.  Net wins - 1/2.

Center
2009 - Marcus Camby (#5 PF, Level 2), Greg Oden (#3 C, Level 2), Joel Przybilla (#47 C, Level 8)
2010 - Greg Oden (#3 C, Level 2), Marcus Camby (#5 PF, Level 2)

This is the position that holds the key to the Trail Blazers success in 2010-11.  Oden's rank as the third most productive center in the NBA shows you what he was bringing when he was on the floor.  Camby was excellent as well, but I've got to believe age will start catching up with him.  It's probably foolish of me but I'm going to go ahead and project this position as if Oden will be playing for most of the season.  Net wins - 3.

Overall
If Portland can put all of the pieces together and keep them healthy they very well may be the biggest threat to the Lakers in the Western Conference.  But based on their recent injury history that is a big if.  Besides the center position the next biggest key to me is point guard.  If Miller can perform close to the level he did in 2009-10 the Blazers will be in great shape.  If not, Roy will be the only real playmaker on the team.

The Blazers put up a 50-32 regular season record in 2009-10.  As noted above, I've got them picking up three wins at center, two at small forward, one and a half at shooting guard and half a win at power forward while losing a win at point guard.

In the final verdict the Portland Trail Blazers are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I project a regular season record of 56-26.

What are your thoughts on the Blazers?  Is my prediction of their record to optimistic?  Let me know by posting a comment below.