New Orleans Hornets - Better or Worse

After two really good years the Hornets took a step back last season.  Of course, a large reason for that slide into reverse was the injury that held Chris Paul to only 45 games played.  While he was out New Orleans was carried by the always steady David West and the play of two rookies, Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton.  The Hornets obviously thought enough of both of the guards to carry them on the roster but they could not have expected them to produce to the level that they did. 

The offseason was filled with much controversy as Chris Paul apparently demanded a trade but then did not.  This put brand new GM Dell Demps in the awkward position of trying to win now without the assets to do so.  He was able to pull off a trade, giving up new stallion Collison for the opportunity to unload James Posey's bad contract and get a good answer for a bad gap at small forward in Trevor Ariza.  What will 2010-11 hold for the Hornets?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: Mr. Littlehand

Point Guard
2009 - Chris Paul (#3 PG, Level 1), Darren Collison (#31 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Chris Paul (#3 PG, Level 1), Jerryd Bayless (#39 PG, Level 8)

I consider Paul a top 10 player when healthy and probably even top five.  His injury crushed New Orleans' chances in 2009-10.  Even while playing with the after effects Paul was able to put up the third most productive season among NBA point guards.  The loss of Collison will hurt a little but Bayless should be a good pickup who can add some additional scoring.  Net wins - 3.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Morris Peterson (#72 SG, Below level), Marcus Thornton (#20 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Marco Belinelli (#36 SG, Level 7), Marcus Thornton (#20 SG, Level 5)

Peterson was horrible last year while Thornton was a breath of fresh air.  He'll need to keep developing in 2010-11 if the Hornets are going to be in playoff contention.  Belinelli is a mystery.  He's shot 39% from behind the arc in three years of limited minutes.  Still, he's all but guaranteed to be more productive than Peterson.  Net wins - 2.

Small Forward
2009 - Peja Stojakovic (#41 SF, Level 9), Julian Wright (#42 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Trevor Ariza (#25 SF, Level 6), Peja Stojakovic (#41 SF, Level 9)

Houston soured on Ariza whose field-goal percentage dropped precipitously last season.  As they say, one man's trash is another man's treasure.  This is the case for Ariza, who fills a big hole in the New Orleans lineup.  Stojakovic should be more effective in smaller minutes as a long range shooter off the pine.  Net wins - 2.

Power Forward
2009 - David West (#23 PF, Level 5), Darius Songaila (#65 PF, Below level)
2010 - David West (#23 PF, Level 5), Jason Smith (Not enough minutes to rank)

West's numbers dropped slightly last season but it's due more to a decrease in minutes played than anything else.  Still, his curve is at the top and flat at best and heading downward at worst.  Smith is just a body.  Net losses - 1/2.

Center
2009 - Emeka Okafor (#25 C, Level 5)
2010 - Emeka Okafor (#25 C, Level 5), Aaron Gray (Not enough minutes to rank)

Okafor has played all 82 games in each of the last three seasons.  That's a positive.  The negative is that his production levels have decreased.  Gray was a productive back up in very limited minutes last season.  The trend continues with Okafor.  Net losses - 1/2.

Overall
I cannot emphasize enough how important Paul's health is for this team.  They have a handful of nice developmental pieces in Ariza, Thornton, Bayless and Belinelli.  If those four can continue to develop while West and Okafor maintain their levels of production then the Hornets should be in the running for the final Western Conference playoff spot.  Of course, the other thing to watch for is what happens with Paul.  If New Orleans struggles badly out of the gate then his eye will surely wander and Demps may want to seek out a trade to get the maximum value for such a huge asset.

The 2009-10 season ended with New Orleans at 37-45.  As I noted above, I have them adding three wins at point guard, two at shooting guard and two at small forward while dropping a half at power forward and a half at center.

In the final verdict the Hornets are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I predict they will post a 43-39 record this season.

What do you think?  Will the Hornets be better or worse this season?  How will that reflect on their record?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.