This alley oop from Carlos Arroyo at mid-court to LeBron is pretty nasty!
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Monday, December 20, 2010
Analyzing the Magic Trades with the Suns and Wizards
The Magic pulled the trigger on two huge trades that will alter the foundation of one of the top contenders for the Eastern Conference title. Orlando had lost five of their last six games and there was a lot of talk about major chemistry issues. So Magic president Otis Smith decided it was time to really do something about it.
Orlando shipped Rashard Lewis to Washington for Gilbert Arenas. They then traded Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, a 2011 first round pick and cash to Phoenix for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark.
There's a lot of speculation about what the trade will mean for each team involved. As you might expect, I want to take a look at some advanced stats to see what they may tell us. I'll refer to a few different advanced statistics:
Rashard Lewis
Games: 25
PER: 11.4
Simple: -4.4
Offensive Rating: 103
Defensive Rating: 103
Gilbert Arenas
Games: 21
PER: 14.1
Simple: -3.4
Offensive Rating: 98
Defensive Rating: 112
While it's not necessarily an apples to apples comparison, Arenas has a better PER and a better Simple Rating than Lewis. The advantage goes the other way when it comes to Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. The important point about the Offensive and Defensive Ratings is that they are more heavily influenced by the team around the player. So in a very simple evaluation of who has been the more productive player so far in 2010, the needle leans from even to slight advantage Arenas.
Now, for the six players involved in the Magic-Suns trade:
Vince Carter
Games: 22
PER: 16.7
Simple: +8.5
Offensive Rating: 111
Defensive Rating: 102
Marcin Gortat
Games: 25
PER: 14.1
Simple: -1.6
Offensive Rating: 114
Defensive Rating: 98
Mickael Pietrus
Games: 19
PER: 8.6
Simple: -4.9
Offensive Rating: 103
Defensive Rating: 103
Jason Richardson
Games: 25
PER: 19.6
Simple: +1.7
Offensive Rating: 115
Defensive Rating: 114
Hedo Turkoglu
Games: 25
PER: 13.4
Simple: -4.2
Offensive Rating: 112
Defensive Rating: 113
Earl Clark
Games: 9
PER: 11.6
Simple: -1.5
Offensive Rating: 92
Defensive Rating: 112
Carter and Richardson are as close to a direct match as we'll get. Richardson has a nearly three point advantage on Carter in PER but Carter makes that up with a nearly seven point advantage in the Simple Rating. Richardson has a slight advantage in Offensive Rating while Carter has a larger advantage in Defensive Rating. By numbers only this is pretty close to a push.
It's harder to compare the other four players because they are not really close to matches. But if you take their raw stats, Gortat has the advantage over Turkoglu, while the Pietrus-Clark comparison is basically a push.
Now let's take a look at how each team will be specifically affected on the floor.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are just glad to have been able to dump the contract of Arenas. Beyond that Lewis should fit in nicely at the small forward position alongside John Wall, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee. He'll be challenged to guard the quicker threes in the NBA but his ability to stroke it from behind the arc (36.7% this season and 39.1% for his career) will be a nice addition to a team that is currently 28th in three-point shooting.
Phoenix Suns
This is a very interesting trade for the Suns from an on-the-court perspective. When I recently analyzed the Suns first quarter of the season, it was their challenges with defense that really stuck out. They have now shed two of their three worst defenders by opponent's PER (Richardson and Turkoglu) and replaced them with two perimeter players with respectable defensive skills (Carter and Pietrus), while adding a low post player that they desperately needed to help Robin Lopez and Channing Frye on the block. Carter also gives them another player who can create his own shot while Pietrus could be deadly from three-point range playing off Steve Nash, if he's in the rotation.
Gortat's rebounding skill should also greatly help Phoenix. The Suns are currently 28th in the NBA in defensive rebounding rate, pulling down only 69.8% of all defensive rebounds available to them. Gortat is grabbing 23.5% of all defensive rebounds available to him, a number that places him 17th in the NBA among centers and first among the Suns.
Orlando Magic
The Magic are placing all of their chips in the middle of the table and playing for keeps. To really analyze the effect of these trades you have to look at how the Magic rotation will change. In essence they are swapping:
Quentin Richardson's numbers are 10.8 PER, -1.2 Simple, 105 Offensive Rating and 102 Defensive Rating. So again, when compared to Turkoglu in numbers only it is close to even. But, Turkoglu's ability to create off the dribble can be a huge asset for Orlando and Richardson is probably better playing the backup wing spot that Pietrus manned. Q is definitely an upgrade in that position for the Magic.
The numbers for Bass are outstanding - 18.2 PER, +8.9 Simple, 112 Offensive Rating and 103 Defensive Rating. He's a much more productive player at the four than Lewis. His minutes as the backup to Dwight Howard should be at least equal in productivity to those turned in by Gortat, if not better.
Duhon has struggled in Orlando. His numbers look like this - 6.3 PER, -5.8 Simple, 90 Offensive Rating and 106 Defensive Rating. Arenas is a huge improvement and obviously, if he can recapture some of the deadliness of his past, he'll be a great asset. The question will be whether he will be willing to embrace a smaller role in Orlando.
Anderson has played limited minutes so far this season. He should be able to provide the three point threat at the power forward position that Lewis has been in good times.
Conclusion
I think these two trades will end up benefitting all three teams. The Suns have added some defense and rebounding, which they critically needed. The Magic have added some pieces that raise the ceiling of their team potential to a higher level. Will it be enough to make them better than the Celtics and Heat?
What are your thoughts on these deals?
 |
| Photo source: Ttodaizzm |
Orlando shipped Rashard Lewis to Washington for Gilbert Arenas. They then traded Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, a 2011 first round pick and cash to Phoenix for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark.
There's a lot of speculation about what the trade will mean for each team involved. As you might expect, I want to take a look at some advanced stats to see what they may tell us. I'll refer to a few different advanced statistics:
- John Hollinger of ESPN's PER, or Player Efficiency Rating. In short, a player's PER is a rating of their per minute productivity. The average PER in the NBA is always 15.0.
- The Simple Rating of 82games.com. This rating factors in a player's PER, the PER of the player they are guarding, the player's plus-minus rating when they are in the game and the plus-minus rating of their team when they are not in the game.
- The Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating on Basketball-Reference.com. The Offensive Rating is how many points the player scores per 100 possessions and the Defensive Rating is how many points the player allows per 100 possessions.
Rashard Lewis
Games: 25
PER: 11.4
Simple: -4.4
Offensive Rating: 103
Defensive Rating: 103
Gilbert Arenas
Games: 21
PER: 14.1
Simple: -3.4
Offensive Rating: 98
Defensive Rating: 112
While it's not necessarily an apples to apples comparison, Arenas has a better PER and a better Simple Rating than Lewis. The advantage goes the other way when it comes to Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. The important point about the Offensive and Defensive Ratings is that they are more heavily influenced by the team around the player. So in a very simple evaluation of who has been the more productive player so far in 2010, the needle leans from even to slight advantage Arenas.
Now, for the six players involved in the Magic-Suns trade:
Vince Carter
Games: 22
PER: 16.7
Simple: +8.5
Offensive Rating: 111
Defensive Rating: 102
Marcin Gortat
Games: 25
PER: 14.1
Simple: -1.6
Offensive Rating: 114
Defensive Rating: 98
Mickael Pietrus
Games: 19
PER: 8.6
Simple: -4.9
Offensive Rating: 103
Defensive Rating: 103
Jason Richardson
Games: 25
PER: 19.6
Simple: +1.7
Offensive Rating: 115
Defensive Rating: 114
Hedo Turkoglu
Games: 25
PER: 13.4
Simple: -4.2
Offensive Rating: 112
Defensive Rating: 113
Earl Clark
Games: 9
PER: 11.6
Simple: -1.5
Offensive Rating: 92
Defensive Rating: 112
Carter and Richardson are as close to a direct match as we'll get. Richardson has a nearly three point advantage on Carter in PER but Carter makes that up with a nearly seven point advantage in the Simple Rating. Richardson has a slight advantage in Offensive Rating while Carter has a larger advantage in Defensive Rating. By numbers only this is pretty close to a push.
It's harder to compare the other four players because they are not really close to matches. But if you take their raw stats, Gortat has the advantage over Turkoglu, while the Pietrus-Clark comparison is basically a push.
Now let's take a look at how each team will be specifically affected on the floor.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are just glad to have been able to dump the contract of Arenas. Beyond that Lewis should fit in nicely at the small forward position alongside John Wall, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee. He'll be challenged to guard the quicker threes in the NBA but his ability to stroke it from behind the arc (36.7% this season and 39.1% for his career) will be a nice addition to a team that is currently 28th in three-point shooting.
Phoenix Suns
This is a very interesting trade for the Suns from an on-the-court perspective. When I recently analyzed the Suns first quarter of the season, it was their challenges with defense that really stuck out. They have now shed two of their three worst defenders by opponent's PER (Richardson and Turkoglu) and replaced them with two perimeter players with respectable defensive skills (Carter and Pietrus), while adding a low post player that they desperately needed to help Robin Lopez and Channing Frye on the block. Carter also gives them another player who can create his own shot while Pietrus could be deadly from three-point range playing off Steve Nash, if he's in the rotation.
Gortat's rebounding skill should also greatly help Phoenix. The Suns are currently 28th in the NBA in defensive rebounding rate, pulling down only 69.8% of all defensive rebounds available to them. Gortat is grabbing 23.5% of all defensive rebounds available to him, a number that places him 17th in the NBA among centers and first among the Suns.
Orlando Magic
The Magic are placing all of their chips in the middle of the table and playing for keeps. To really analyze the effect of these trades you have to look at how the Magic rotation will change. In essence they are swapping:
- Richardson for Carter at the starting two guard
- Turkoglu for Quentin Richardson as their starting small forward
- Brandon Bass for Lewis as the starter at power forward
- Arenas for Chris Duhon as the backup point guard
- Q. Richardson for Pietrus as a backup swing man
- Ryan Anderson for Bass as the backup four
- Bass for Gortat as the backup center
Quentin Richardson's numbers are 10.8 PER, -1.2 Simple, 105 Offensive Rating and 102 Defensive Rating. So again, when compared to Turkoglu in numbers only it is close to even. But, Turkoglu's ability to create off the dribble can be a huge asset for Orlando and Richardson is probably better playing the backup wing spot that Pietrus manned. Q is definitely an upgrade in that position for the Magic.
The numbers for Bass are outstanding - 18.2 PER, +8.9 Simple, 112 Offensive Rating and 103 Defensive Rating. He's a much more productive player at the four than Lewis. His minutes as the backup to Dwight Howard should be at least equal in productivity to those turned in by Gortat, if not better.
Duhon has struggled in Orlando. His numbers look like this - 6.3 PER, -5.8 Simple, 90 Offensive Rating and 106 Defensive Rating. Arenas is a huge improvement and obviously, if he can recapture some of the deadliness of his past, he'll be a great asset. The question will be whether he will be willing to embrace a smaller role in Orlando.
Anderson has played limited minutes so far this season. He should be able to provide the three point threat at the power forward position that Lewis has been in good times.
Conclusion
I think these two trades will end up benefitting all three teams. The Suns have added some defense and rebounding, which they critically needed. The Magic have added some pieces that raise the ceiling of their team potential to a higher level. Will it be enough to make them better than the Celtics and Heat?
What are your thoughts on these deals?
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Utah Jazz Off to Strong 18-8 Start
Utah started the 2010-11 NBA season by stumbling out of the gates. They lost three of their first five games. Then the Jazz beat the Clippers in overtime and tore through the Southeast Division, beating the Heat, Magic, Hawks and Bobcats on the road. Since then they've been mostly steady, although they've lost at home four times in that stretch of 16 games.
What do the stats tell us about the Jazz in the first 26 games? Let's take a look.
But before we do, I projected that the Jazz would finish the season with a 49-33 record.
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 110.1 (7th in the NBA) [110.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 105.7 (12th) [105.0 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 4.4 [5.7 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.3 (10th) [104.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 97.3 (13th) [98.9 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 90.9 (22nd) [93.8 in 2009]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
Deron Williams
Offensive Rating: 120 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 108 (107)
PER: 24.9 (20.6)
Al Jefferson
Offensive Rating: 108 (106)
Defensive Rating: 104 (108)
PER: 17.3 (19.0)
Paul Millsap
Offensive Rating: 120 (113)
Defensive Rating: 103 (103)
PER: 21.4 (16.7)
Andrei Kirilenko
Offensive Rating: 110 (117)
Defensive Rating: 106 (103)
PER: 15.1 (18.2)
Raja Bell
Offensive Rating: 107 (116)
Defensive Rating: 109 (107)
PER: 9.1 (13.8)
C.J. Miles
Offensive Rating: 103 (100)
Defensive Rating: 106 (107)
PER: 15.5 (10.8)
Earl Watson
Offensive Rating: 100 (100)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 10.6 (10.9)
Ronnie Price
Offensive Rating: 90 (98)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 7.6 (10.3)
Francisco Elson
Offensive Rating: 109 (90)
Defensive Rating: 105 (107)
PER: 11.1 (5.5)
Gordon Hayward
Offensive Rating: 80 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 110
PER: 2.5
Kyrylo Fesenko
Offensive Rating: 94 (100)
Defensive Rating: 106 (105)
PER: 6.4 (9.7)
The most interesting thing about the team statistics for the Jazz is the difference in their pace. They are averaging nearly three fewer possessions per game so far this season when compared to 2009-10. As a team they shot spectacularly last year - 49.0%, tied for first in the NBA. They've dropped some in 2010 to 46.9% but that's still good for sixth in the NBA. Much of that drop off can be attributed to three-point shooting where they are at 34.4%, down from 36.5% last season. Another area where Utah is lagging from last season is defensive rebounds. In 2009-10 the Jazz pulled down 75.1% of all the rebounds available to them when they were on defense. Through the first 26 games of this season they are only grabbing 69.9% of those boards, 26th in the NBA. On the positive side - they are second in both assists per game and turnovers per game.
There's no doubt that Williams is Utah's leader. He's having the most effective season of his career and currently ranks fifth in the NBA in PER. He's scoring more per 36 minutes (21.7) than he ever has while also posting the highest True Shooting Percentage of his career.
Jefferson is still adjusting to Utah after coming over in a trade from Minnesota. His PER is down 1.7 points and he's shooting a career worst 46.9%. He's also averaging a career worst 8.8 rebounds per 36 minutes. Positively, he's averaging a career best 1.2 turnovers per 36 minutes.
He's always been a productive player, but Millsap has been even more effective this season, posting a career high 21.4 PER. He's shooting better than he ever has from the field (55.0%) and free throw line (72.5%). Like Jefferson though, he is averaging a career low in rebounds per 36 minutes (8.2).
After an outstanding 2009-10 (he finished third in my NBA Small Forward Rankings), Kirilenko has fallen off through the first 26 games. His PER is down 3.1 points to 15.1. He's shooting a career high 40.0% from behind the arc but a career low 43.7% overall. He's averaging career lows in steals (1.2) and blocks (1.3) per 36 minutes and a near career low in rebounds (5.6).
Utah liked Bell for his defense and three-point shooting. But after a career high PER in 2009-10 he's putting up his lowest PER in eight years. Impressively, coming into this season Bell had shot better than 40% from behind the arc in seven of the last eight seasons. He's shooting just 36.2% through 26 games.
The story with Miles is nearly the opposite of Bell's. He's bounced back from a bad 2009-10 and improved his PER by 4.7 points to 15.5. He still has a negative rating differential but has contributed in all areas of statistically.
Beyond Miles the Jazz have been playing a lot of guys off the bench. The reason so many guys are getting time is probably because none of them has been very effective. With a PER of 11.1, Elson has been the most productive. He's shooting a career best 53.2% from the field. Watson is giving Utah nearly exactly what they should have expected as most of his numbers are right around his career averages. Price has a career low 7.6 PER. His assist rate is way down but his steal rate is up. Fesenko has been their best rebounder. Hayward is struggling to find his NBA game.
The Jazz currently have a 69.2 winning percentage, which if maintainted will be their best in more than 10 seasons. They have been very successful in the first quarter of the season without Mehmet Okur touching the floor. His return should help improve Utah's ability to hit the three but it won't give a big boost to their rebounding. Those are the two areas the Jazz need to reinforce in order to make a strong playoff run. They would also be helped a great deal by Kirilenko returning to his highly productive form of last season.
What are your thoughts on the Jazz through 26 games? Post a comment below and let's discuss.
What do the stats tell us about the Jazz in the first 26 games? Let's take a look.
But before we do, I projected that the Jazz would finish the season with a 49-33 record.
 |
| Photo source: Argyleist |
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 110.1 (7th in the NBA) [110.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 105.7 (12th) [105.0 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 4.4 [5.7 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.3 (10th) [104.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 97.3 (13th) [98.9 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 90.9 (22nd) [93.8 in 2009]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
Deron Williams
Offensive Rating: 120 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 108 (107)
PER: 24.9 (20.6)
Al Jefferson
Offensive Rating: 108 (106)
Defensive Rating: 104 (108)
PER: 17.3 (19.0)
Paul Millsap
Offensive Rating: 120 (113)
Defensive Rating: 103 (103)
PER: 21.4 (16.7)
Andrei Kirilenko
Offensive Rating: 110 (117)
Defensive Rating: 106 (103)
PER: 15.1 (18.2)
Raja Bell
Offensive Rating: 107 (116)
Defensive Rating: 109 (107)
PER: 9.1 (13.8)
C.J. Miles
Offensive Rating: 103 (100)
Defensive Rating: 106 (107)
PER: 15.5 (10.8)
Earl Watson
Offensive Rating: 100 (100)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 10.6 (10.9)
Ronnie Price
Offensive Rating: 90 (98)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 7.6 (10.3)
Francisco Elson
Offensive Rating: 109 (90)
Defensive Rating: 105 (107)
PER: 11.1 (5.5)
Gordon Hayward
Offensive Rating: 80 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 110
PER: 2.5
Kyrylo Fesenko
Offensive Rating: 94 (100)
Defensive Rating: 106 (105)
PER: 6.4 (9.7)
The most interesting thing about the team statistics for the Jazz is the difference in their pace. They are averaging nearly three fewer possessions per game so far this season when compared to 2009-10. As a team they shot spectacularly last year - 49.0%, tied for first in the NBA. They've dropped some in 2010 to 46.9% but that's still good for sixth in the NBA. Much of that drop off can be attributed to three-point shooting where they are at 34.4%, down from 36.5% last season. Another area where Utah is lagging from last season is defensive rebounds. In 2009-10 the Jazz pulled down 75.1% of all the rebounds available to them when they were on defense. Through the first 26 games of this season they are only grabbing 69.9% of those boards, 26th in the NBA. On the positive side - they are second in both assists per game and turnovers per game.
There's no doubt that Williams is Utah's leader. He's having the most effective season of his career and currently ranks fifth in the NBA in PER. He's scoring more per 36 minutes (21.7) than he ever has while also posting the highest True Shooting Percentage of his career.
Jefferson is still adjusting to Utah after coming over in a trade from Minnesota. His PER is down 1.7 points and he's shooting a career worst 46.9%. He's also averaging a career worst 8.8 rebounds per 36 minutes. Positively, he's averaging a career best 1.2 turnovers per 36 minutes.
He's always been a productive player, but Millsap has been even more effective this season, posting a career high 21.4 PER. He's shooting better than he ever has from the field (55.0%) and free throw line (72.5%). Like Jefferson though, he is averaging a career low in rebounds per 36 minutes (8.2).
After an outstanding 2009-10 (he finished third in my NBA Small Forward Rankings), Kirilenko has fallen off through the first 26 games. His PER is down 3.1 points to 15.1. He's shooting a career high 40.0% from behind the arc but a career low 43.7% overall. He's averaging career lows in steals (1.2) and blocks (1.3) per 36 minutes and a near career low in rebounds (5.6).
Utah liked Bell for his defense and three-point shooting. But after a career high PER in 2009-10 he's putting up his lowest PER in eight years. Impressively, coming into this season Bell had shot better than 40% from behind the arc in seven of the last eight seasons. He's shooting just 36.2% through 26 games.
The story with Miles is nearly the opposite of Bell's. He's bounced back from a bad 2009-10 and improved his PER by 4.7 points to 15.5. He still has a negative rating differential but has contributed in all areas of statistically.
Beyond Miles the Jazz have been playing a lot of guys off the bench. The reason so many guys are getting time is probably because none of them has been very effective. With a PER of 11.1, Elson has been the most productive. He's shooting a career best 53.2% from the field. Watson is giving Utah nearly exactly what they should have expected as most of his numbers are right around his career averages. Price has a career low 7.6 PER. His assist rate is way down but his steal rate is up. Fesenko has been their best rebounder. Hayward is struggling to find his NBA game.
The Jazz currently have a 69.2 winning percentage, which if maintainted will be their best in more than 10 seasons. They have been very successful in the first quarter of the season without Mehmet Okur touching the floor. His return should help improve Utah's ability to hit the three but it won't give a big boost to their rebounding. Those are the two areas the Jazz need to reinforce in order to make a strong playoff run. They would also be helped a great deal by Kirilenko returning to his highly productive form of last season.
What are your thoughts on the Jazz through 26 games? Post a comment below and let's discuss.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
San Antonio Spurs at the Quarter Pole
The Spurs have started the 2010-11 NBA season with a franchise record 20 wins in 23 games. With their spectacular win-loss record, San Antonio has been an early season NBA surprise. They currently have the best record in the NBA, with impressive road victories at Oklahoma City, Utah and New Orleans, and solid home wins over Chicago, Orlando and Atlanta.
What's been the key to the Spurs hot start? Let's take a look at the statistics and see what they tell us.
But before we do, I predicted San Antonio would finish the season at 52-30.
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 113.0 (2nd in the NBA) [110.0 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 102.4 (8th) [104.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.6 [5.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.4 (4th) [101.4 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 96.5 (9th) [96.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 93.3 (12th) [91.7 in 2009]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
Tony Parker
Offensive Rating: 113 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 104 (108)
PER: 20.4 (16.4)
Manu Ginobili
Offensive Rating: 120 (118)
Defensive Rating: 102 (104)
PER: 24.0 (22.5)
Richard Jefferson
Offensive Rating: 126 (110)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 16.7 (13.1)
Tim Duncan
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 98 (101)
PER: 21.6 (24.7)
George Hill
Offensive Rating: 120 (115)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 16.6 (14.7)
DeJuan Blair
Offensive Rating: 103 (108)
Defensive Rating: 97 (101)
PER: 16.0 (17.7)
Antonio McDyess
Offensive Rating: 100 (103)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 11.3 (12.2)
Gary Neal
Offensive Rating: 106 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 105
PER: 12.3
Matt Bonner
Offensive Rating: 126 (117)
Defensive Rating: 105 (104)
PER: 13.1 (14.9)
Tiago Splitter
Offensive Rating: 113 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103
PER: 14.9
The Spurs have improved impressively on both offense and defense. Their Offensive Rating is up three points from last season to 113.0, which is the second best mark in the NBA. Their Defensive Rating is 2.1 points better and stands at 102.4, which is good enough for eighth in the NBA. One of the biggest differences offensively is their three point shooting. They are knocking down a league-leading 41.4% of their shots behind the arc, a significant improvement over the 35.6% they hit in 2009-10. On defense they are second in the NBA in steals per game at 9.1. That's a nice jump from their 6.3 average last season.
After a subpar (for him) 2009-2010, Parker's numbers are back up to the level of his career norms. He's shooting a solid 51.3% and he's averaging more assists (7.6) and steals (1.8) per 36 minutes than he has in any other season in his career. Maybe it was Eva.
Ginobili was my top-rated shooting guard in 2009-10. He's following that up with an even better season. Right now his PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating are better than those of 2009-10. He's putting up excellent numbers across the board and his True Shooting Percentage is at a career high.
Duncan currently has the lowest PER of his career (21.6), but it's a number that 95% of the NBA would love to say was theirs. At 48.4% his shooting is near a career low but he's also averaging more assists (4.1) and steals (1.0) per 36 minutes than he has in his career. A stat that may turn out to really pay off come playoff time - he's averaging a career low 28.8 minutes per game.
What a difference a year makes for Jefferson. After never truly fitting in last season, he's been much more like the player San Antonio was hoping for when they made the trade for him. He's shooting a spectacular 46.3% on threes. He's not exactly filling the stat sheet otherwise, but he is averaging a career best one turnover per game.
The career arc of George Hill continues to rise. He really broke out last season and he's playing even better in 2010. He's shooting 40.4% from behind the arc and 86.9% from the free throw line.
Blair has started all 23 games in his second season but his numbers have fallen off a bit. His shooting has dropped from 55.6% in 2009-10 to 46.3% this season. On the positive side, he's doubled his average steals per 36 minutes to 2.4.
The Spurs have gotten mixed results off the bench. The productivity of McDyess continues to decline rapidly. He's at a career worst 11.3 PER and 44.0% shooting. Neal is contributing much more than expected as a rookie. He's shooting an excellent 41.3% from three-point range. Bonner is knocking down a ridiculous 50.8% of his threes. Splitter has not had the impact that some had expected but his 14.9 PER is certainly respectable.
It's not likely that San Antonio will be able to sustain their hot three-point shooting at the level they are now. But the good news for the Spurs - they can absolutely find other ways to get the ball in the basket. Parker, Ginobili and Duncan can all find ways to score. The most important thing the Spurs need to continue doing is clamping down and playing tight team defense. That will be the key to how far they can go in the playoffs.
What are your observations on the Spurs' hot start? Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.
What's been the key to the Spurs hot start? Let's take a look at the statistics and see what they tell us.
But before we do, I predicted San Antonio would finish the season at 52-30.
 |
| Photo source: WDPG share |
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 113.0 (2nd in the NBA) [110.0 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 102.4 (8th) [104.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.6 [5.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.4 (4th) [101.4 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 96.5 (9th) [96.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 93.3 (12th) [91.7 in 2009]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
Tony Parker
Offensive Rating: 113 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 104 (108)
PER: 20.4 (16.4)
Manu Ginobili
Offensive Rating: 120 (118)
Defensive Rating: 102 (104)
PER: 24.0 (22.5)
Richard Jefferson
Offensive Rating: 126 (110)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 16.7 (13.1)
Tim Duncan
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 98 (101)
PER: 21.6 (24.7)
George Hill
Offensive Rating: 120 (115)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 16.6 (14.7)
DeJuan Blair
Offensive Rating: 103 (108)
Defensive Rating: 97 (101)
PER: 16.0 (17.7)
Antonio McDyess
Offensive Rating: 100 (103)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 11.3 (12.2)
Gary Neal
Offensive Rating: 106 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 105
PER: 12.3
Matt Bonner
Offensive Rating: 126 (117)
Defensive Rating: 105 (104)
PER: 13.1 (14.9)
Tiago Splitter
Offensive Rating: 113 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103
PER: 14.9
The Spurs have improved impressively on both offense and defense. Their Offensive Rating is up three points from last season to 113.0, which is the second best mark in the NBA. Their Defensive Rating is 2.1 points better and stands at 102.4, which is good enough for eighth in the NBA. One of the biggest differences offensively is their three point shooting. They are knocking down a league-leading 41.4% of their shots behind the arc, a significant improvement over the 35.6% they hit in 2009-10. On defense they are second in the NBA in steals per game at 9.1. That's a nice jump from their 6.3 average last season.
After a subpar (for him) 2009-2010, Parker's numbers are back up to the level of his career norms. He's shooting a solid 51.3% and he's averaging more assists (7.6) and steals (1.8) per 36 minutes than he has in any other season in his career. Maybe it was Eva.
Ginobili was my top-rated shooting guard in 2009-10. He's following that up with an even better season. Right now his PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating are better than those of 2009-10. He's putting up excellent numbers across the board and his True Shooting Percentage is at a career high.
Duncan currently has the lowest PER of his career (21.6), but it's a number that 95% of the NBA would love to say was theirs. At 48.4% his shooting is near a career low but he's also averaging more assists (4.1) and steals (1.0) per 36 minutes than he has in his career. A stat that may turn out to really pay off come playoff time - he's averaging a career low 28.8 minutes per game.
What a difference a year makes for Jefferson. After never truly fitting in last season, he's been much more like the player San Antonio was hoping for when they made the trade for him. He's shooting a spectacular 46.3% on threes. He's not exactly filling the stat sheet otherwise, but he is averaging a career best one turnover per game.
The career arc of George Hill continues to rise. He really broke out last season and he's playing even better in 2010. He's shooting 40.4% from behind the arc and 86.9% from the free throw line.
Blair has started all 23 games in his second season but his numbers have fallen off a bit. His shooting has dropped from 55.6% in 2009-10 to 46.3% this season. On the positive side, he's doubled his average steals per 36 minutes to 2.4.
The Spurs have gotten mixed results off the bench. The productivity of McDyess continues to decline rapidly. He's at a career worst 11.3 PER and 44.0% shooting. Neal is contributing much more than expected as a rookie. He's shooting an excellent 41.3% from three-point range. Bonner is knocking down a ridiculous 50.8% of his threes. Splitter has not had the impact that some had expected but his 14.9 PER is certainly respectable.
It's not likely that San Antonio will be able to sustain their hot three-point shooting at the level they are now. But the good news for the Spurs - they can absolutely find other ways to get the ball in the basket. Parker, Ginobili and Duncan can all find ways to score. The most important thing the Spurs need to continue doing is clamping down and playing tight team defense. That will be the key to how far they can go in the playoffs.
What are your observations on the Spurs' hot start? Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Phoenix Suns at the Quarter Pole
After losing Amare Stoudemire and adding a number of interesting parts, we didn't know what to expect from the Suns. So far they've been up and down. They have really good wins on the road at Utah, Atlanta and Los Angeles (over the Lakers). Their two worst losses are at Charlotte and home against Memphis. To their defense, Phoenix has played the seventh most difficult schedule in the NBA.
But ultimately if they hope to make the playoffs the Suns have to start winning more games. They are currently 11-12 and one game out of the eighth spot in the Western Conference Playoffs. As competitive as the West is, it's hard to see a .500 team getting in. Before the season I predicted the Suns would be left out of the playoffs with a 48-34 record.
So what's worked for Phoenix and where do they need help? Let's take a look at the statistics to see what they tell us.
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.9 (3rd in the NBA) [115.3 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 113.4 (30th) [110.2 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -1.5 [5.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 108.1 (1st) [110.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 109.5 (30th) [105.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.5 (8th) [95.3 in 2009]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
Jason Richardson
Offensive Rating: 116 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 114 (111)
PER: 19.7 (16.6)
Channing Frye
Offensive Rating: 115 (120)
Defensive Rating: 111 (108)
PER: 12.7 (15.0)
Steve Nash
Offensive Rating: 120 (121)
Defensive Rating: 116 (114)
PER: 23.7 (21.6)
Grant Hill
Offensive Rating: 119 (114)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110)
PER: 18.0 (14.0)
Hedo Turkoglu
Offensive Rating: 112 (109)
Defensive Rating: 113 (113)
PER: 13.4 (13.3)
Hakim Warrick
Offensive Rating: 124 (110)
Defensive Rating: 115 (106)
PER: 19.1 (15.6)
Jared Dudley
Offensive Rating: 108 (124)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 12.2 (13.6)
Goran Dragic
Offensive Rating: 93 (110)
Defensive Rating: 113 (112)
PER: 12.7 (14.8)
Josh Childress
Offensive Rating: 117 (127 in 2007-08)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110 in 2007-08)
PER: 14.1 (17.8)
Robin Lopez
Offensive Rating: 100 (123)
Defensive Rating: 113 (110)
PER: 11.2 (17.6)
When looking at the team statistics you quickly notice that the Suns are not as good offensively as they were last year and have struggled mightily on defense. Their 111.9 points per 100 possessions is excellent, but is 3.4 points lower than 2009-10. That would be okay if their defense was solid, but it's not. Phoenix is dead last in Defensive Rating, allowing 113.4 points per 100 possessions. A big problem is that they are last in the league in opponent field goal percentage defense. They are allowing opponents to make 42.2% of their shots. That is three percentage points worse than last season. The problem is most apparent in the paint where the Suns are allowing opponents to score 48.6 points per game, most in the NBA.
The Phoenix Suns and Steve Nash are basically synonomous at this point. And Nash is bringing it again in his 15th year. His PER is currently above what it was in his two MVP seasons. Most of his numbers are within reach of career highs. For the most part he hasn't dropped off a bit. The only exception is three-point shooting. Right now he's at a career-worst 32.7%. Also, in a common trend among the Suns, his Defensive Rating has fallen to a career worst.
Richardson has definitely embraced the Suns fast-paced offense. He's having the best season of his career by PER. At 44.0% he's shooting better behind the arc than he ever has. His turnover rate is at a career low. The only negative is that, like Nash, his Defensive Rating is the worst it's been in his career. That includes his go-go years in Golden State.
With Lopez hurt, Frye is logging more minutes per game than he has before in his career. His level of productivity seems to alternate every year and so far in 2010 he's on the down side. His rebounds and assists per 36 minutes are both at career lows. His three-point shooting has dropped from 43.9% last season to 38.6% so far in 2010. On the good side, he's averaging a career high in blocks per 36 minutes.
Hill has been tremendous and is having his most productive season in five years. Much of that stems from a career high field goal percentage of 53.6. His turnover rate is currently the lowest it's been in any one season in his career. But, like the others, he's posting the worst Defensive Rating of his career.
Phoenix picked up Turkoglu, Warrick and Childress with the hopes that they would make up for the loss of Stoudemire. Turkoglu has played the most and been the least productive. His performance has only been slightly better than his bad year last season in Toronto. On a positive note he is shooting a career best 42.4% on threes. Warrick is having the most productive year of his career. That's mostly due to his 55.5% shooting, which is up 7.3% from 2009-10. Childress has yet to find the form he had three years ago before leaving for Europe. One thing that hasn't changed is his solid shooting. He's at 57.0% from the field.
After a season in which they were solid contributors off the bench, both Dudley and Dragic are struggling in 2010. For Dudley it's three-point shooting that's dragging him down. He's at 31.1% this season after knocking down 45.8% in 2009-10. Dragic has been cold from behind the arc as well (30.2%) and has also had a bit of a turnover problem. He's averaging nearly two more per 36 minutes than he did last season.
Lopez showed a lot of promise last year while starting 31 games and posting a 17.6 PER. A knee injury has limited him to only nine games and when he's been on the floor he's had trouble putting the ball in the hoop. His field goal shooting has plummeted to 44.0% from 58.8% last season.
Nobody on the Suns is immune from defensive issues. Every rotation player is posting the worst Defensive Rating of their career. Clearly the team defense needs to be improved if Phoenix hopes to make the playoffs. It would also help if they can get the rotation settled and have the dynamic bench impact that they've had in recent years.
Why do you think the Suns have been so bad defensively this year? What can they do to make a run for the playoffs? Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.
But ultimately if they hope to make the playoffs the Suns have to start winning more games. They are currently 11-12 and one game out of the eighth spot in the Western Conference Playoffs. As competitive as the West is, it's hard to see a .500 team getting in. Before the season I predicted the Suns would be left out of the playoffs with a 48-34 record.
So what's worked for Phoenix and where do they need help? Let's take a look at the statistics to see what they tell us.
 |
| Photo source: Ms. Phoenix |
Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.9 (3rd in the NBA) [115.3 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 113.4 (30th) [110.2 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -1.5 [5.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 108.1 (1st) [110.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 109.5 (30th) [105.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.5 (8th) [95.3 in 2009]
Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)
Jason Richardson
Offensive Rating: 116 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 114 (111)
PER: 19.7 (16.6)
Channing Frye
Offensive Rating: 115 (120)
Defensive Rating: 111 (108)
PER: 12.7 (15.0)
Steve Nash
Offensive Rating: 120 (121)
Defensive Rating: 116 (114)
PER: 23.7 (21.6)
Grant Hill
Offensive Rating: 119 (114)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110)
PER: 18.0 (14.0)
Hedo Turkoglu
Offensive Rating: 112 (109)
Defensive Rating: 113 (113)
PER: 13.4 (13.3)
Hakim Warrick
Offensive Rating: 124 (110)
Defensive Rating: 115 (106)
PER: 19.1 (15.6)
Jared Dudley
Offensive Rating: 108 (124)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 12.2 (13.6)
Goran Dragic
Offensive Rating: 93 (110)
Defensive Rating: 113 (112)
PER: 12.7 (14.8)
Josh Childress
Offensive Rating: 117 (127 in 2007-08)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110 in 2007-08)
PER: 14.1 (17.8)
Robin Lopez
Offensive Rating: 100 (123)
Defensive Rating: 113 (110)
PER: 11.2 (17.6)
When looking at the team statistics you quickly notice that the Suns are not as good offensively as they were last year and have struggled mightily on defense. Their 111.9 points per 100 possessions is excellent, but is 3.4 points lower than 2009-10. That would be okay if their defense was solid, but it's not. Phoenix is dead last in Defensive Rating, allowing 113.4 points per 100 possessions. A big problem is that they are last in the league in opponent field goal percentage defense. They are allowing opponents to make 42.2% of their shots. That is three percentage points worse than last season. The problem is most apparent in the paint where the Suns are allowing opponents to score 48.6 points per game, most in the NBA.
The Phoenix Suns and Steve Nash are basically synonomous at this point. And Nash is bringing it again in his 15th year. His PER is currently above what it was in his two MVP seasons. Most of his numbers are within reach of career highs. For the most part he hasn't dropped off a bit. The only exception is three-point shooting. Right now he's at a career-worst 32.7%. Also, in a common trend among the Suns, his Defensive Rating has fallen to a career worst.
Richardson has definitely embraced the Suns fast-paced offense. He's having the best season of his career by PER. At 44.0% he's shooting better behind the arc than he ever has. His turnover rate is at a career low. The only negative is that, like Nash, his Defensive Rating is the worst it's been in his career. That includes his go-go years in Golden State.
With Lopez hurt, Frye is logging more minutes per game than he has before in his career. His level of productivity seems to alternate every year and so far in 2010 he's on the down side. His rebounds and assists per 36 minutes are both at career lows. His three-point shooting has dropped from 43.9% last season to 38.6% so far in 2010. On the good side, he's averaging a career high in blocks per 36 minutes.
Hill has been tremendous and is having his most productive season in five years. Much of that stems from a career high field goal percentage of 53.6. His turnover rate is currently the lowest it's been in any one season in his career. But, like the others, he's posting the worst Defensive Rating of his career.
Phoenix picked up Turkoglu, Warrick and Childress with the hopes that they would make up for the loss of Stoudemire. Turkoglu has played the most and been the least productive. His performance has only been slightly better than his bad year last season in Toronto. On a positive note he is shooting a career best 42.4% on threes. Warrick is having the most productive year of his career. That's mostly due to his 55.5% shooting, which is up 7.3% from 2009-10. Childress has yet to find the form he had three years ago before leaving for Europe. One thing that hasn't changed is his solid shooting. He's at 57.0% from the field.
After a season in which they were solid contributors off the bench, both Dudley and Dragic are struggling in 2010. For Dudley it's three-point shooting that's dragging him down. He's at 31.1% this season after knocking down 45.8% in 2009-10. Dragic has been cold from behind the arc as well (30.2%) and has also had a bit of a turnover problem. He's averaging nearly two more per 36 minutes than he did last season.
Lopez showed a lot of promise last year while starting 31 games and posting a 17.6 PER. A knee injury has limited him to only nine games and when he's been on the floor he's had trouble putting the ball in the hoop. His field goal shooting has plummeted to 44.0% from 58.8% last season.
Nobody on the Suns is immune from defensive issues. Every rotation player is posting the worst Defensive Rating of their career. Clearly the team defense needs to be improved if Phoenix hopes to make the playoffs. It would also help if they can get the rotation settled and have the dynamic bench impact that they've had in recent years.
Why do you think the Suns have been so bad defensively this year? What can they do to make a run for the playoffs? Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Andre Miller Body Blasts Blake Griffin
This is a great video. I love the fact that there was no foul called but Miller was later suspended for a game.
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