Denver Nuggets - Better or Worse

The Nuggets are coming off a difficult season.  They had a very respectable 53 wins but greatly missed their head coach George Karl after he took a leave of absence for cancer treatment.  Denver hung on to win the Northwest Division but then lost to the rival Jazz in six games in the first round of the playoffs.  Since then there have been nothing but rumors about the coming and going of Carmelo Anthony.  A few weeks ago a deal seemed to be all but done to send Carmelo to the Nets but somebody backed out as the final hour approached.  Now the Nuggets seem to be bathed in uncertainty as the new season approaches.  Even though there is a very high likelihood that the team we evaluate here will not be together throughout the season, let's take a shot at predicting the record anyway.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: dherrera_96

Point Guard
2009 - Chauncey Billups (#5 PG, Level 2), Ty Lawson (#15 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Chauncey Billups (#5 PG, Level 2), Ty Lawson (#15 PG, Level 4)

The rotation at point guard will not change and that is definitely a good thing for the Nuggets.  Billups continued to defy age and play at a very high level.  Lawson had an excellent rookie year.  I expect the same high level of production from this position but with Lawson picking up a few more of Billups' minutes.  Net wins - 0.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Arron Afflalo (#48 SG, Level 8), J.R. Smith (#22 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Arron Afflalo (#48 SG, Level 8), J.R. Smith (#22 SG, Level 5)

Afflalo gave the Nuggets what they wanted in a starter at off guard - a solid three point shooter who can play some defense.  Smith's efficiency suffered as his three point shooting percentage dropped last year.  He just took more shots to keep his scoring average up.  I think Denver got as much production as they could out of this position last season.  I'm calling for a small drop.  Net losses - 1.

Small Forward
2009 - Carmelo Anthony (#8 SF, Level 3)
2010 - Carmelo Anthony (#8 SF, Level 3)

What happens with Carmelo will be the biggest determining factor in the Nuggets season.  I can see him going out to prove a point early in the season and surpassing his past performance.  But, I can also see him getting frustrated with the whole situation and playing poorly.  I'm going to go with the former.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Kenyon Martin (#49 PF, Level 8)
2010 - Al Harrington (#47 PF, Level 7), Kenyon Martin (#49 PF, Level 8)

Harrington is not the upgrade at power forward that the Nuggets would like you to believe he is.  Karl recently said that he was hopeful that Martin would be back from his knee injury around January 1.  Denver will miss him dearly on the defensive end.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Center
2009 - Nene (#7 C, Level 2), Chris Andersen (#9 C, Level 3)
2010 - Nene (#7 C, Level 2), Chris Andersen (#9 C, Level 3)

Another stellar season was turned in by Nene.  His stats were solid and maybe most importantly he was able to start all 82 games.  It looks like Andersen will miss at least the first month of the season with a knee injury.  I think both players hit their ceiling production-wise in 2009-10, meaning there will be some drop off.  Net losses - 1 1/2.

Overall
Until things are settled with Carmelo the Nuggets will be hard to read.  It will be to their advantage to make a move sooner than later, otherwise they will risk receiving nothing in return for a huge asset.  The addition of Harrington was the only significant move they made over the summer.  Sure he can space the floor with his three point shooting ability but ultimately I think his lack of defensive prowess will hurt this squad.  They will also suffer from the injuries to Martin and Andersen.

The Nuggets posted a 53-29 record in 2009-10.  As I've noted above, I've got them picking up one win at small forward, breaking even at point guard and losing one and a half at power forward and center and one at shooting guard.

In the final verdict the Nuggets are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I predict that they will have a 50-32 record in 2010-11.

How do you think the uncertainty will affect the Nuggets?  Does my record projection seem about right to you?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Golden State Warriors - Better or Worse

What a mess.  Those three words summarize Golden State's previous season.  Team chemistry was nonexistent.  Most of the players seemed to be completely in it for themselves.  Don Nelson continued to make bizarre decisions about the playing rotation.  The number of wins decreased again, even after a huge drop off in the 2008-09 season.  On the bright side, Stephen Curry had a solid rookie year.  After the season ended the Warriors made a very curious draft pick, were bought and sold, traded their second leading scorer for a bag of donuts, made a deal to pick up a high profile but maybe low impact free agent and fired their coach.  How will all of these changes affect their record in 2010-11?  Let's take a look.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: permanently scatterbrained

Point Guard
2009 - Stephen Curry (#22 PG, Level 5), C.J. Watson (#29 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Stephen Curry (#22 PG, Level 5), Charlie Bell (#67 SG, Below Level)

Curry was all the Warriors hoped he could be as his game grew quickly during his rookie tilt.  He should develop more in 2010-11.  The problem for Golden State comes at the backup position.  C.J. Watson put in a respectable season off the bench last year.  It looks like there will be a noticeable drop off this season as Bell is likely to be a part of a three guard rotation with Curry and Monta Ellis.  Net losses - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Monta Ellis (#37 SG, Level 7), Anthony Morrow (#27 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Monta Ellis (#37 SG, Level 7)

Efficiency, on offense and defense, was the factor that most hurt the ranking of Ellis amongst other shooting guards.  I don't believe that will change this season.  Again, the Warriors will be hurt by a weakened bench.  Morrow was an effective contributor in 2009-10.  Net Losses - 2.

Small Forward
2009 - Corey Maggette (#14 SF, Level 4), Reggie Williams (#24 SF, Level 6)
2010 - Dorell Wright (#10 SF, Level 4), Reggie Williams (#24 SF, Level 6)

I think Wright was one of the best under the radar signings of the free agency period.  He is very efficient offensively and also solid on defense.  Williams was quite a find out of the D-League last year.  His PER ranked 13th among small forwards.  I like further development for Wright and Williams but I think it will be hard for them to match Maggette's production from 2009-10.  Net Losses - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Ronny Turiaf (#45 C, Level 8), Anthony Randolph (#32 PF, Level 6)
2010 - David Lee (#12 C, Level 3), Brandan Wright (Missed last year with injury)

Don Nelson used an eclectic mix of players at the four last year, some were small and some were big.  There could be more of the same this season with Lee playing minutes at the five.  Lee was spectacular on offense last year, ranking fourth among centers in PER.  There's no way to know what to expect from Wright who shows a lot of promise but missed the 2009-10 season with an injury.  I like Lee to bring more production at this position.  Net wins - 3.

Center
2009 - Anthony Tolliver (#39 C, Level 8), Andris Biedrins (#42 C, Level 8)
2010 - Andris Biedrins (#42 C, Level 8), Louis Amundson (#28 C, Level 6)

Injuries derailed Biedrins' development in 2009-10 after three straight seasons of improving numbers.  Amundson is a good energy guy off the bench but it looks like he'll now miss the first one to three months of the season after breaking his finger.  Net wins - 1.

Overall
The addition of Lee and Dorell Wright may revitalize this team, but it's more likely that they would have been better off in the long run by bottoming out and starting over with just Curry and a couple of other players.  In the best case scenario for Golden State Curry takes a leadership role, Ellis decides to play team ball, D Wright and Williams produce strongly, Lee brings everything he had in New York and B Wright and Biedrins come back as healthy contributors.  But I don't quite see that happening.

The Warriors finished last season at 26-56.  As I've documented above, I've got them adding three wins at power forward and one win at center while dropping two at shooting guard and one apiece at point guard and small forward.

In the final verdict the Warriors are the SAME.  As they are currently constructed I project that they will have a 26-56 record this season.

What are your thoughts on my projection?  Too low?  Too high?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Sacramento Kings - Better or Worse

After hitting the bottom in the 2008-09 season and only earning 17 wins, the Kings started to rebound last year with the emergence of Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans.  They had another solid draft and made a nice trade to bring in Samuel Dalembert, who unfortunately got hurt and is expected to miss the first four to six weeks.  It seems clear that Sacramento is now aimed in the right direction, but how much better will they be in 2010-11?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Beno Udrih (#25 PG, Level 5)
2010 - Beno Udrih (#25 PG, Level 5)

Because Evans gets so many minutes at the point there really is no use in slotting another player into the backup role.  Udrih had a solid 2009-10 and really hit his stride when he began starting alongside Evans after the Kevin Martin trade.  The key for him will be avoiding turnovers.  He was much improved in that category last season, as he was with shooting percentage.  Net wins - 1/2.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Tyreke Evans (#14 PG, Level 4), Francisco Garcia (#41 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Tyreke Evans (#14 PG, Level 4), Francisco Garcia (#41 SG, Level 7)

Evans surpassed even the most optimistic of expectations last season and really took over the team after the Martin trade.  There are certainly opportunities for improvement in his game though and I expect more development in those areas next season.  Garcia is a serviceable backup with a nice touch from three-point range.  Net wins - 1 1/2.



Photo source: J.smith



Small Forward

 2009 - Donte Greene (#52 SF, Level 10), Omri Casspi (#30 SF, Level 7)
2010 - Donte Greene (#52 SF, Level 10), Omri Casspi (#30 SF, Level 7)

Small forward is a position where the Kings need more consistently solid play in 2010-11.  The good news is that both Greene (22) and Casspi (22) are young and athletic with promise and a lot of room for growth.  It would help Sacramento if one of them really took hold of this position.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Carl Landry (#17 PF, Level 5), Jon Brockman (#51, Level 8)
2010 - Carl Landry (#17 PF, Level 5), Jason Thompson (#33 C, Level 7)

A full season of Landry will be a boon to Sacramento.  He really broke out last year in Houston before stepping his game up even further after being traded to the Kings.  Thompson saw most of his minutes at the five spot last year.  That will probably be true for the early part of this season as well as they await the return of Dalembert.  Net wins - 1 1/2.

Center
2009 - Jason Thompson (#33 C, Level 7), Spencer Hawes (#48 C, Level 8)
2010 - Samuel Dalembert (17 C, Level 4), DeMarcus Cousins (Rookie)

Unfortunately the immediate improvement at center for the Kings will be delayed by Dalembert's injury.  He should help them greatly on the defensive end, an area where they really need it.  Cousins could be a perennial all star or a complete flame out.  I lean much more toward the former, however, I don't expect him to be a heavy contributor in his rookie year.  Net wins - 1 1/2.

Overall
Much like I mentioned about the Clippers, the Kings are building a nice foundation of young talent and the key to their success, both short-term and long-term, will be how they groom those players to excel.  It should be fun to watch this team come together this season.  The Kings had a 25-57 record in 2009-10.  As highlighted above, I've got them picking up one and a half wins at shooting guard, power forward and center, one win at small forward and half a win at point guard.

In the final verdict the Kings are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I project that they will have a 31-51 record in 2010-11.

What are your thoughts on this season's Kings?  Do you think my record projection is on target?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Los Angeles Clippers - Better or Worse

After two absolutely miserable seasons that included a combined 42 wins, the Clippers looked to be much improved going into the 2009-2010 campaign, with whispers of playoff contention floating around.  And why not, they appeared to have a solid nucleus and new number one pick Blake Griffin to step up the intensity.  But sadly, it was business as usual for the other team in Los Angeles.  Griffin was hurt seriously right before the season started and did not play a game.  The poor play on the court was only outpaced by the shenanigans behind the scenes with Mike Dunleavy and Donald Sterling.  Now, Griffin is back and healthy for the upcoming season.  Will that be enough to force people to start using "Clippers" and "playoff contention" in the same sentence again?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: prayitno

Point Guard
2009 - Baron Davis (#13 PG, Level 3), Steve Blake (#54 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Baron Davis (#13 PG, Level 3), Eric Bledsoe (Rookie)

Baron Davis is not the Baron Davis of a few years ago, but he was still good enough to rank just outside the top 10 NBA point guards.  I expect his skills to decline further in 2010-11.  Over the course of last season three different guys served as his primary backup.  Bledsoe could bring a lot of speed and excitement but is very raw.  Net losses - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Eric Gordon (#33 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Eric Gordon (#33 SG, Level 7), Randy Foye (#44 SG, Level 8)

Injuries slowed Gordon's development last year.  He played quite well for Team USA over the summer and I expect a nice leap from him this season.  Rasual Butler played most of the other minutes available at the two last season.  The Clippers have brought Foye in to add more punch off the bench.  Net wins - 5.

Small Forward
2009 - Rasual Butler (#62 SG, Level 10), Travis Outlaw (#33 SF, Level 7)
2010 - Ryan Gomes (#46 SF, Level 10), Al-Farouq Aminu (Rookie)

It's hard to tell what to make of the small forward position for the Clippers.  Gomes is not really an improvement over what they had there and Aminu is too young to contribute meaningfully, especially at a new position.  Still I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and a tick in the positive column.  Net wins - 1.

Power Forward
2009 - Drew Gooden (#36 PF, Level 6), Craig Smith (#28 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Blake Griffin (Rookie), Craig Smith (#28 PF, Level 6)

Technically, Griffin will be a rookie this season.  Gooden and Smith ably held down the four last year as they were waiting for Griffin.  Smith is a very capable back up and a productive player that L.A. wisely brought back.  Net wins - 3.

Center
2009 - Chris Kaman (#32 C, Level 7), DeAndre Jordan (#53 C, Level 10)
2010 - Chris Kaman (#32 C, Level 7), DeAndre Jordan (#53 C, Level 10)

The Clippers return the same two-deep from last season, and that's a good thing.  Kaman had a solid 2009-10 and should still be improving in the next year or two before hitting his ceiling.  He should be helped by having a beast like Griffin on the block alongside him.  Jordan can serve as a pesky last line of defense when inserted into the lineup as he continues to develop in his third year.  Net wins - 2.

Overall
The Clippers had a good draft and now have an excellent group of young players in Griffin, Gordon, Bledsoe, Aminu and Jordan to develop alongside their veterans.  The key word there is develop because the success of the season will lie in how quickly they can get the youngest youngsters up to NBA speed and the ones expected to have a big impact to the next level.  Scoring and turnovers were the biggest thorns in the Clippers' side in 2009-10.  If Gordon and Griffin can stay healthy, they will certainly give a boost to the scoring.  I'm not sure anything was done to help in the turnover department.

L.A. finished last season with a 29-53 record.  I've got them picking up five wins at shooting guard, three at power forward, two at center and one at small forward while losing one at point guard.

In the final verdict the Clippers are BETTER.  As they are currently constructed I project that they will finish the season at 39-43.

How does that record sound to you?  Too high?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Phoenix Suns - Better or Worse

Following a very good regular season in which they earned the number three seed in the Western Conference, the Suns had an excellent postseason, beating the Blazers in six games then sweeping the Spurs before falling to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals in six.  But the offseason brought a lot of change to Phoenix with Amare Stoudamire signing with the Knicks and the Suns then orchestrating some free agent signings and trades.  Will all the summer moves result in winter success?  Let's take a look.

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Photo source: kevindooley

Point Guard
2009 - Steve Nash (#7 PG, Level 2), Goran Dragic (#36 PG, Level 7)
2010 - Steve Nash (#7 PG, Level 2), Goran Dragic (#36 PG, Level 7)

Nash was spectacular as usual last season.  The only reason he didn't rank among the top three point guards in my rankings is because his Defensive Rating was 62nd.  Dragic was a solid backup in his second year in the NBA.  I think Nash will start to slide this season resulting in the loss of two wins while the development of Dragic will get one of those wins back.  Net losses - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Jason Richardson (#11 SG, Level 3), Leandro Barbosa (#34 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Jason Richardson (#11 SG, Level 3), Josh Childress (Played in Europe)

Richardson was good in the '09-'10 campaign but suffered a little bit of a drop off.  Childress is coming back to the NBA after a two year run in Europe.  He was a very productive role player for the Hawks before going overseas.  I project that Richardson will slide back slightly more leading to one loss while Childress will not be as productive as Barbosa was last season resulting in another loss.  Net losses - 2.

Small Forward
2009 - Grant Hill (#19 SF, Level 5), Jared Dudley (#15 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Grant Hill (#19 SF, Level 5), Jared Dudley (#15 SF, Level 5)

The Suns got consistently excellent production from the small forward position last season.  One of the keys was three-point shooting, which is always important in a Steve Nash-run offense.  Hill shot 44% from behind the arc while Dudley shot 46%.  I've got Phoenix losing two games due to a drop off in Hill's play while staying even with Dudley.  I just think he reached his ceiling last year.  Net losses - 2.

Power Forward
2009 - Amare Stoudamire (#10 PF, Level 3)
2010 - Hedo Turkoglu (#32 SF, Level 7), Hakim Warrick (#42 PF, Level 7)

Stoudamire was very good for most of last season and even better in the playoffs.  Replacing him will be a very tough task.  The Suns are likely to use a mix of players at the four.  Turkoglu, who completely flamed out in Toronto, could get the bulk of the minutes if he shows he can guard other power forwards.  Regardless, Phoenix will not be able to match the production they got from Stoudamire last season.  Net losses - 4.

Center
2009 - Channing Frye (#24 C, Level 5), Robin Lopez (#20 C, Level 5)
2010 - Robin Lopez (#20 C, Level 5), Channing Frye (#24 C, Level 5)

Both Frye and Lopez put in good minutes for the Suns in the '09-'10 campaign.  Technically Frye started more games than Lopez.  They are both back in 2010 with Lopez the clear starter and Frye offering versatility off the pine.  Development from both players will lead to an improvement in production at the five.  Net wins - 3.

Overall
From the beginning of the season the Suns will be trying to make up for the loss of Stoudamire and fighting the effects of age.  They led the NBA in field-goal percentage and three-point field-goal percentage last season.  They will have to shoot just as efficiently this season if they hope to come close to matching last year's record, which was 54-28.  Looking at the season ahead, as highlighted above I've got them adding three wins at the center position, but losing four at power forward, two at small forward, two at shooting guard and one at point guard.

In the final verdict the Suns are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I project that they will finish the season with a 48-34 record.

Let me know why you think I'm wrong or right by posting a comment below.

Los Angeles Lakers - Better or Worse

Photo source: Denise Cross

The Lakers were pushed to just about the last minute of the NBA Finals by the Boston Celtics before claiming victory and becoming back-to-back NBA champs.  From beginning to end they had to work harder last season to win than they did the year before.  They suffered through injuries to their best players and won five fewer games than they did in the '08-'09 season but still got the number one seed in the Western Conference.  They made a few changes in the offseason to fortify their depth but are already being affected by injuries with Andrew Bynum likely to miss time at the beginning of the season and Kobe Bryant already dinged up.  Will the Lakers win enough games in the regular season to again claim the top seed in the Western Conference?

(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)

Point Guard
2009 - Derek Fisher (#50 PG, Level 9), Jordan Farmar (#42 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Derek Fisher (#50 PG, Level 9), Steve Blake (#54 PG, Level 10)

Fisher's shooting percentages dropped quite a bit last season, as did his scoring average.  However, he was the only one of the Lakers starters to play in all 82 games.  Farmar was up and down but when averaged out his numbers make him look like a decent backup.  Blake should be ideal at the point in the triangle offense because of his ability to knock down the three.  I think Fisher's continued drop off will result in one less win at this position next season while the addition of Blake will neutralize the loss of Farmar.  Net losses - 1.

Shooting Guard
2009 - Kobe Bryant (#3 SG, Level 2), Shannon Brown (#43 PG, Level 9)
2010 - Kobe Bryant (#3 SG, Level 2), Shannon Brown (#43 PG, Level 9)

While not putting up his most productive year, Kobe was still among the top players in the league last season.  Brown put in quality minutes at both the one and the two.  After rumors flew that he would end up elsewhere he did re-sign with the Lakers.  I thought Kobe looked like a lesser player in the NBA Finals and I think a further drop will lead to two less wins, while Brown will be pretty close to even.  Net losses - 2.

Small Forward
2009 - Ron Artest (#23 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Ron Artest (#23 SF, Level 5), Matt Barnes (#9 SF, Level 3)

Barnes was an excellent signing for the Lakers and he could help spell Kobe productively at the two at times as well.  Artest was solid during the regular season and spectacular in the last two games of the NBA Finals.  I think another year in the triangle offense will help Artest add a win while the addition of Barnes will be good for two wins.  Net wins - 3.

Power Forward
2009 - Pau Gasol (#1 PF, Level 1), Lamar Odom (#12 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Pau Gasol (#1 PF, Level 1), Lamar Odom (#12 PF, Level 4)

There's no other way to put it, Gasol was in elite company last year, dominating the power forward rankings and finishing fourth in the overall rankings.  Odom was also excellent over the course of the season but suffered the usual bouts of inconsistency.  I've got Gasol maintaining his high level of play with Odom dropping a win.  Net losses - 1.

Center
2009 - Andrew Bynum (#4 C, Level 2)
2010 - Andrew Bynum (#4 C, Level 2), Theo Ratliff (#49 C, Level 8)

Injuries may prevent Bynum from ever reaching his full potential.  He had his most healthy season in three years in '09-'10, still playing only 65 games, and was very productive.  Ratliff is a nice add on as a low post defender.  With injuries already affecting Bynum, I've got the Lakers losing two wins at the center position.  Net losses - 2.

Overall
If they are healthy for the playoffs the Lakers are absolutely a threat to three-peat.  But that may be a big if.  I think this may be the year that all those extra playoff games really catch up to them.  I think the Lakers would be well-served to utilize a similar rotation scheme to that used by the Celtics in the second half of last season - sitting their best players for long stretches even if it means taking a loss.  I'm sure Phil Jackson is cooking up something right now.

The NBA champs put up a 57-25 regular season record in '09-'10.  With the win differentials I mentioned above I've got them picking up three wins at small forward while losing two at center and shooting guard and one at point guard and power forward.

In the final verdict the Lakers are WORSE.  As they are currently constructed I'll predict their record will be 54-28.

Do you expect more from the Lakers?  Am I way off?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Eastern Conference Projections Review

Now that I've finished my Eastern Conference previews here are my full projected standings:

Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics   51-31
New York Knicks   40-42
Toronto Raptors   38-44
New Jersey Nets   28-54
Philadelphia 76ers   25-57

Southeast Division
Miami Heat   62-20
Orlando Magic   59-23
Atlanta Hawks   51-31
Charlotte Bobcats   40-42
Washington Wizards   31-51

Central Division
Chicago Bulls   50-32
Milwaukee Bucks   49-33
Indiana Pacers   35-47
Cleveland Cavaliers   31-51
Detroit Pistons   27-55