Saturday, January 22, 2011

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Point Guard Rankings

It's been a great year so far for point guards in the NBA. Just try to pick one to start on the Western Conference All Star team. You've got Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker who are all having spectacular seasons.

Who's leading the NBA point guard pack in production? The answer is below. You can find my ranking process on my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.  And, if you are interested, Deron Williams was the top-rated point guard for the 2009-10 season.

.
PLAYERPERRankEWARankSimpleRankO Rat.RankD. RatRankTotals Final Rank
.
Chris Paul, NO25.55111112.52125199161
.
Derrick Rose, CHI23.1359.447.14111171024342
.
Tony Parker, SA20.9766.9647114121059403
.
Rajon Rondo, BOS19.684.8993110211002434
.
Andre Miller, POR19.0795.576.851121410722575
.
Deron Williams, UTAH23.4449.924.16120311146616
.
Russell Westbrook, OKC24.1529.922.9121102110828657
.
Steve Nash, PHX24.0238.1515.81123211664758
.
Stephen Curry, GS19.7474.7103.581121411146859
.
George Hill, SA14.53341.8323.311116710599310
.
Shannon Brown, LAL16.66232.3293.5811117106169310
.
Jose Calderon, TOR17.95123.7162.4131167112519912
.
D.J. Augustin, CHA16.69223.9130.82411951103910313
.
Jameer Nelson, ORL16.09252.922-13411214105910414
.
Lou Williams, PHI17.58142.9223.410108271093210515
.
Beno Udrih, SAC16.95173.913-0.83312031103910515
.
Chauncey Billups, DEN17.46163.8150.82411671114610817
.
Rodney Stuckey, DET18.31104.3121.619111171125110918
.
Devin Harris, NJ18.15114.411122107301103911319
.
Jason Kidd, DAL14.75332.6261.91610435103611620
.
Jrue Holiday, PHI15.92273.5171.121104351061611620
.
Mike Conley, MEM15.5303.3181.916107301072211620
.
Earl Boykins, MIL16.8191.43512210534105911923
.
Darren Collison, IND16.77203.119-134107301061611923
.
Ty Lawson, DEN16.74212.824215115111125112225
.
Raymond Felton, NY17.75135.38-134109241114612526
.
Brandon Jennings, MIL16.89182.626-1.53910337104712727
.
Kyle Lowry, HOU15.24312.7251.220110211093212928
.
Luke Ridnour, MIN16.26243200.12811861135413229
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Eddie House, MIA13.33380.542-3.2481167104714230
.
Ramon Sessions, CLE17.56153200.726108271145814631
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Daniel Gibson, CLE15.08322312.413109241135415432
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Mike Bibby, ATL12.45430.939-0.532113131082815533
.
Gary Neal, SA13.05410.840-2.544109241061616534
.
Tyreke Evans, SAC14.28352.130-0.13096541072217135
.
Baron Davis, LAC15.61291.733-346102401093218036
.
John Wall, WSH15.72282.428-2.94599501093218337
.
Gilbert Arenas, ORL12.91421380.12995541072218538
.
Aaron Brooks, HOU16.02261.236-243108271135418639
.
Earl Watson, UTAH11.35510.1501.718102401082818740
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Patrick Mills, POR13.32390.5420.427102401103918740
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Shaun Livingston, CHA11.5500.246-0.23199501061619342
.
Mario Chalmers, MIA10.5753-0.254-3.14710240102419843
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Jordan Farmar, NJ13.32391.137-1.237100471103919944
.
Carlos Arroyo, MIA10.3957-0.356-451111171072220345
.
Eric Maynor, OKC11.8460.246-1.640103371103920846
.
C.J. Watson, CHI10.4656-0.254-1.4389260101321147
.
Jarrett Jack, NO11.95450.444-4.35496541061621348
.
Jerryd Bayless, TOR13.5370.840-3.549107301145821449
.
Derek Fisher, LAL9.3160-163-4.55610337105922550
.
Nate Robinson, BOS10.952052-7.6629950105922550
.
T.J. Ford, IND10.1558-0.356-3.6509260105923352
.
Jose Juan Barea, DAL11.54480.246-4.35497531093223352
.
Eugene Jeter, SAC11.52490.150-1.942100471114623454
.
Mo Williams, CLE13.99361.534-4.25296541145823454
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Will Bynum, DET11.97440.246-4.252102401135423656
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Ronnie Price, UTAH7.861-0.860-1.84191631082825357
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Eric Bledsoe, LAC10.555-0.356-5.15794591093225958
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Steve Blake, LAL7.662-1.465-8.864102401093226359
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Goran Dragic, PHX11.74470.345-7.46195541145826560
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Ishmael Smith, HOU9.3259-0.356-6.55992601103927361
.
Chris Duhon, ORL6.1664-1.164-6.66090641072227462
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Sebastian Telfair, MIN10.5254-0.153-5.558101471156227462
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Acie Law, GS6.7263-0.860-8.263102401166429064
.
Jonny Flynn, MIN4.7765-0.962-10.26580651156231965

I'll be posting my observations on this list in the next couple of days. Let me know your thoughts on the list by posting a comment below.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings

Yesterday I posted my mid-season rankings of NBA small forwards.  I know that NBA fans who don't believe in such detailed statistical analysis will scoff at such rankings, especially when they see Carmelo Anthony ranked just one spot above Matt Barnes.  But to me these rankings tell a majority of the story about how a player is producing and where he ranks among other NBA players.  Notice I said a majority of the story.  Do I think Tayshaun Prince is better than Carmelo?  No.  But I do think the stats provide a very strong base for starting those types of discussions.  I also think they are a good vehicle for tracking player trends.

Photo source: CT Snow, via Wikimedia Commons
So, with that said, here are my observations:
  • As I mentioned yesterday, I find it very interesting that Carmelo is ranked one notch below Wilson Chandler.  For obvious reasons there has been a lot of discussion about Carmelo's value.  Henry Abbott does a great job of analyzing Carmelo's value on ESPN's TrueHoop blog.  The key category that pushes Chandler ahead of Carmelo is the Offensive Rating, or points per 100 possessions.  Carmelo beats out Chandler in each of the four other categories.
  • No surprise that LeBron tops the list.  He leads in three of the five categories.  He finished the 2009-10 season in first as well. 
  • Paul Pierce has had a great season so far.  I'm surprised how close he is to LeBron.  Those two are clearly a level above the rest.
  • The biggest positive surprises to me are Rudy Gay, Mike Dunleavy and Shawne Williams.
  • I questioned the Grizzlies' signing of Gay to a max deal but he really has produced so far this season.
  • The biggest negative surprises to me are Gerald Wallace, Nicolas Batum and Corey Maggette.
  • The biggest jumpers from the final 2009-10 rankings are C.J. Miles (up 36), Chris Douglas-Roberts (up 32) and Wilson Chandler (up 28).
  • The biggest droppers from the final 2009-10 rankings are Jamario Moon (down 36), Corey Maggette (down 21) and Travis Outlaw (down 20).
  • Paul George is the highest rated rookie at 28.
  • New Jersey and Cleveland are getting the worst production from the small forward position.  New Jersey has Travis Outlaw ranked 53rd and Stephen Graham ranked 57th.  Cleveland has Jamario Moon ranked at 54.
What jumps out at you from the small forward rankings?  Share your observations by posting a comment below.

Monday, January 17, 2011

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings

With many NBA teams at or soon to cross the midway point of their season it's time to take a good look at who's producing and who's not. After the 2009-10 season I created a cumulative ranking system that included five different types of advanced statistical analysis. If you'd like to take a look at those ratings I suggest you start with the 2009-10 NBA Point Guard Rankings. That post explains the ranking system I used.

For 2010-11 I've changed the rating system up a bit by substituting the Estimated Wins Added analysis for Wins Above Replacement Player. So the five evaluations utilized in the ranking system are:
Another thing I've done that will shed much more light on my process and refute some of the questions of its validity is to include all of the stats and ranks in the five categories.  To get the final rank I add the totals of the five separate ranks.  A lower total score is better so I list them in ascending order.

Because of all the fanfare around the potential trade of Carmelo Anthony I decided to start my midseason rankings with the small forwards.  As a Syracuse alum I am a big Carmelo fan, but it is interesting to note that at number six the Knicks' Wilson Chandler currently ranks one notch above Carmelo.

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PLAYERPERRankEWARankSimpleRankO Rat.RankD RatRankTotalsFinal Rank
.
LeBron James, MIA25.91111.6114.5111471012121
.
Paul Pierce, BOS20.7136.9311.3211931012132
.
Kevin Durant, OKC23.9829.529.24114710829443
.
Rudy Gay, MEM18.9956.5410.531092110515484
.
Tayshaun Prince, DET16.5193.981.419111151035565
.
Wilson Chandler, NY17.1274.566.47114710933606
.
Carmelo Anthony, DEN20.4345.557.551053010725697
.
Matt Barnes, LAL14.8141.6221.717113131035718
.
Luol Deng, CHI14.58173.2102.715107251035729
.
Mike Dunleavy, IND14.19232185.1811115104117510
.
Danny Granger, IND16.588473.31110238104117510
.
Andrei Kirilenko, UTAH15.51123.1112.71511115107257812
.
Richard Jefferson, SA14.29212.4151.1201165106238413
.
C.J. Miles, UTAH16.47102.5147610530107258514
.
Grant Hill, PHX17.1663.692.8131156114558915
.
Gerald Wallace, CHA14.27222.1174.69102381051510116
.
Shawn Marion, DAL15.87112.813-3.238105301041110317
.
Marvin Williams, ATL13.76281.5230.12311471062310418
.
Caron Butler, DAL14.61161.8214.41099481051511019
.
James Jones, MIA11.63410.5351.51813011051511019
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Jared Dudley, PHX14.8213218-0.42411741135111019
.
Chris Douglas-Roberts, MIL13.36300.829-0.92710921103511222
.
Nicolas Batum, POR14.39192.316-3.34011471093311523
.
Dorell Wright, GS14.65153.111-0.526108231124912424
.
Hedo Turkoglu, ORL14.1724218-4.143113131082912725
.
Carlos Delfino, MIL12.68340.3403.21210337103512826
.
Shane Battier, HOU12.5371.3240.721111151093313027
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Paul George, IND14.55180.535-7.2511062899113328
.
Shawne Williams, NY14.39190.733-54712021093313429
.
Chase Budinger, HOU14.14251.324-0.424107251103913730
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Ron Artest, LAL11.84400.829-231108231051513831
.
Cartier Martin, WSH13.07310.3402.813110201103914332
.
Vladimir Radmanovic, GS14.08261.127-3.137111151103914433
.
Reggie Williams, GS13.56291.324-2.83511471165715234
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Corey Maggette, MIL13.8227128-4.445102381051515335
.
Omri Casspi, SAC12.56350.829-2.734106281082915536
.
Julian Wright, TOR12.7330.4380.422105301103916237
.
Al Thornton, WSH12.46380.829-0.927107251114616538
.
Trevor Ariza, NO10.84420.242-3369454101217639
.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, MIL9.1748-0.651-2.33310046103518340
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Al-Farouq Aminu, LAC12.02390.535-4.14396501072519241
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Austin Daye, DET12.95320.634-6.450102381103919342
.
Martell Webster, MIN12.55360.438-3.842105301135119743
.
James Posey, IND8.752-0.651-5.749102381041120144
.
Quincy Pondexter, NO7.5455-0.549-3.238100461051520345
.
Dominic McGuire, CHA9.4146-0.245-7.75396501051520946
.
Mickael Pietrus, ORL8.7251-0.651-3.441102381082921047
.
Donte Greene, SAC8.8649-0.446-1.52991561093321348
.
Wesley Johnson, MIN9.6245-0.549-231104361145521649
.
Linas Kleiza, TOR10.5144043-1.93096501135121850
.
Ryan Gomes, LAC8.7550-154-4.846105301103921951
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Rodney Carney, GS10.7643043-8.555102381135123052
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Travis Outlaw, NJ8.6253-1.255-54796501103924453
.
Jamario Moon, CLE9.2247-0.446-85494541114624754
.
Maurice Evans, ATL6.3956-1.255-8.95699481093324855
.
Gordon Hayward, UTAH8.2854-0.446-9.557101451124925156
.
Stephen Graham, NJ4.657-1.557-7.25188571114626857

I'll soon post some additional observations, including the biggest gainers and droppers from last season.

In the mean time let me know your thoughts - what are the biggest surprises to you on the list?

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

NBA Rookies Progress Report - Beyond the 2010 Draft First Round Picks

This is the final entry of my four part series evaluating NBA rookies through the first couple months of the 2010-11 season.  My first post looked at picks 1-10 of the 2010 NBA Draft.  My second post examined the productivity of picks 11-20.  The third post highlighted the early performance of picks 21-30

In this post I'll spotlight those NBA rookies from the second round or previous drafts who have seen solid playing time so far this season.

Photo source: Zereshk
Tiago Splitter - San Antonio Spurs
Games - 27
PER - 15.0
Simple - -6.0
Offensive Rating - 110
Defensive Rating - 103

Splitter did not have the instant impact some expected but has been productive.  He's one of only a handful of rookies with a positive Offensive/Defensive differential.  He's shooting 50% and averaging 13.8 points, 8.1 rebounds and one block per 36 minutes.  Like many of the other frontline rookies, he is struggling with personal fouls.

Landry Fields - New York Knicks
Games - 36
PER - 14.8
Simple - +6.3
Offensive Rating - 119
Defensive Rating - 108

Nobody could have predicted the heavy contributions this second round pick has provided the Knicks.  Fields is by far the leader in Simple Rating among rookies and like Splitter, he's one of a small number with a positive Offensive/Defensive differential.  His True Shooting Percentage is second only to Semih Erden among rookies.  He's shooting 37.6% from behind the arc.  His defensive rebounding percentage is second to Anthony Randolph among Knicks.  That's really impressive considering he is an off guard. 

Gary Neal - San Antonio Spurs
Games - 37
PER - 14.0
Simple - -3.1
Offensive Rating - 111
Defensive Rating - 106

Neal has essentially come out of nowhere to be a solid contributor to San Antonio's excellent start.  Maybe the most impressive of Neal's stats is his 7.8% turnover ratio.  That's the best turnover ratio of every Spurs rotation player besides Matt Bonner.  Neal is also averaging 16.9 points per 36 minutes while knocking down 38.9% of his three pointers.

Gary Forbes - Denver Nuggets
Games - 33
PER - 13.7
Simple - -8.0
Offensive Rating - 106
Defensive Rating - 111

Here's another rookie shooting a solid three-point percentage (38.7) who's made some nice contributions to his team.  Forbes ranks ninth among rookies in PER and his 16.6 points per 36 minutes is fourth on the Nuggets.

Omer Asik - Chicago Bulls
Games - 37
PER - 11.4
Simple - -1.8
Offensive Rating - 105
Defensive Rating - 97

In his first year in the NBA after being picked in the second round by Portland in the 2008 draft, Asik has contributed good minutes for Chicago.  His Defensive Rating is stellar, he's shooting 56.5% and he's averaging 9.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes.  On the negative side, he's also averaging 2.3 turnovers and six fouls per 36 minutes.

Eugene Jeter - Sacramento Kings
Games - 22
PER - 11.1
Simple - -0.6
Offensive Rating - 97
Defensive Rating - 111

Jeter honed his game in Europe before coming back to the United States.  He's put in some decent minutes as a backup point guard.  At 38.4% he's struggling to shoot the ball well, but he's also averaging a Kings high 7.5 assists per 36 minutes and his assist rate is better than that of John Wall. 

Semih Erden - Boston Celtics
Games - 26
PER - 10.2
Simple - -11.0
Offensive Rating - 107
Defensive Rating - 101

Injuries in the post have forced the Celtics to use Erden much more than they planned to in the early going of the 2010-11 NBA season.  He hasn't set the world on fire but he has been decent.  On the positive side, he's shooting 59.7% and averaging 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes.  On the negative, he's only pulling down 6.3 rebounds per 36 minutes while also turning the ball over 2.1 times and committing 6.2 fouls over that time period.

Nikola Pekovic - Minnesota Timberwolves
Games - 24
PER - 10.0
Simple - -8.2
Offensive Rating - 97
Defensive Rating - 112

The tag on Pekovic as he came into the NBA was that he was good on offense and unproven on defense.  So far he's struggled on both sides of the floor.  He's shooting just 43.8% while averaging 13.1 points, 8.1 boards, 1.8 blocks and 7.3 fouls per 36 minutes.  He has been an impressive offensive rebounder.  His offensive rebound percentage of 12.3 is third on the Timberwolves and only two percentage points below Kevin Love.

Ish Smith - Houston Rockets
Games - 14
PER - 9.3
Simple -  -8.3
Offensive Rating - 92
Defensive Rating - 110

This is another case of a rookie getting more playing time than expected because of injuries.  Smith does have the best rookie assist ratio.  He's shooting a poor 40% and averaging 2.8 turnovers per 36 minutes.  But, he's also averaging a respectable 6.6 assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes.

Timofey Mozgov - New York Knicks
Games - 26
PER - 5.4
Simple - -13.4
Offensive Rating - 79
Defensive Rating - 106

It was odd to see Mozgov starting early in the season for the Knicks because he clearly wasn't ready for that role.  His advanced statistics above are horrid.  More specific breakdowns of his statistics are no better - he's shooting a dreadful 37.3% and averaging 3.6 turnovers and seven fouls per 36 minutes.

When you look at the draftees along with the others in the NBA rookie class of 2010-11 what surprises you most?  Who are the biggest disappointments?  Post a comment and let me know your thoughts.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

NBA Rookies Progress Report - Picks 21-30

This is part three of my series analyzing the production of NBA rookies through the first couple months of the season.  My first post looked at picks 1-10 of the 2010 NBA Draft.  My second post examined the productivity of picks 11-20.  In this post we'll feature picks 21-30.

Photo source: SD Dirk
21.  Craig Brackins - Philadelphia 76ers
Brackins has played in only two games for the Sixers.  However, he has demonstrated some skill in the D-League, averaging 17.2 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocked shots per game for the Springfield Armor.

22.  Elliot Williams - Portland Trail Blazers
Due to injuries in both knees Williams will not play a minute for the Blazers in 2010-11.  He had surgery on his right knee in mid-November and will have surgery on his left knee this month.

23.  Trevor Booker - Washington Wizards
Games - 27
PER - 12.8
Simple - -3.7
Offensive Rating - 106
Defensive Rating - 108

With an average of 12.7 minutes per game, Booker has not played a lot but he has put in productive minutes.  He's 10th among rookies with a 12.8 PER.  He's shooting 51.2% while averaging 11.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.6 steals per 36 minutes.

24.  Damion James - New Jersey Nets
Games - 17
PER - 7.0
Simple - -1.1
Offensive Rating - 78
Defensive Rating - 105

James has been good on defense, holding his opponent to a PER of just 7.9.  But, at 35.0%, he is struggling to put the ball in the hoop.  He's currently out until approximately mid-February with a broken foot.

25.  Dominique Jones - Dallas Mavericks
Having played sparingly in 10 games, Jones has not yet gotten consistent burn.  He's shooting an atrocious 22.2%, but that is only on 18 shots.  He's also averaging a rough 3.3 turnovers per 36 minutes.

26.  Quincy Pondexter - New Orleans Hornets
Games - 26
PER - 8.8
Simple - -4.2
Offensive Rating - 105
Defensive Rating - 105

Impressively, Pondexter does have a neutral Offensive/Defensive differential.  He's also shooting a respectable 47.5% from the field and 46.2% from behind the arc. 

27.  Jordan Crawford - Atlanta Hawks
Crawford has only played a total of 109 minutes in 10 games but he has shot well from three-point range (36.8%).  He's averaging a team worst 3.0 turnovers per 36 minutes

28.  Greivis Vasquez - Memphis Grizzlies
Games - 29
PER - 7.4
Simple - -9.3
Offensive Rating - 92
Defensive Rating - 109

Joining rookie teammate Xavier Henry with a current PER under 8.0, Vasquez is shooting poorly from the field at 37.0% and averaging nearly three turnovers per 36 minutes.  On the positive side, he's second behind Mike Conley on the Grizzlies in assists per 36 minutes at 5.9.

29.  Daniel Orton - Orlando Magic
Orton is yet to make his NBA debut because of knee injuries.  He may begin practicing again in February.

30.  Lazar Hayward - Minnesota Timberwolves
Games - 17
PER - 7.6
Simple - -12.8
Offensive Rating - 92
Defensive Rating - 112

Hayward was a surprise pick by the T-Wolves to end the first round.  He's been dreadful shooting the ball and is currently at 22.5%.  At 6.7 boards per 36 minutes he is rebounding well for a wing.

Taken as a whole this group has had little impact thus far in their first year in the NBA.  Booker and Pondexter have been the most productive.

Any surprises to you among this group of 10 rookies?  Which one do you think will end up having the best NBA career?