Orlando Magic at the Quarter Pole

Despite being plagued by a stomach virus that has played some part in them losing their last two games, the Orlando Magic have gotten off to an excellent 15-6 start.  Excluding those last two games, their only bad loss was to Toronto in mid-November.  They avenged a blowout loss to Miami in their second game by beating the Heat in Orlando on Thanksgiving Eve.

What have the Magic been doing well and where are their opportunities for improvement?  Let's take a look at some of the numbers and find out.

But first, I predicted Orlando would finish the 2010-11 season at 59-23.

Photo source: Jeff Kern

Team Stats

Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 107.0 (13th in the NBA) [111.4 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 99.7 (1st) [103.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 7.3 [8.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 97.4 (20th) [102.8 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 90.8 (1st) [95.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.1 (19th) [92.0 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Rashard Lewis
Offensive Rating: 103 (111 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 101 (104)
PER: 11.6 (14.0)

Dwight Howard
Offensive Rating: 107 (113)
Defensive Rating: 92 (95)
PER: 24.2 (24.0)

Vince Carter
Offensive Rating: 110 (112)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 17.2 (17.1)

Quentin Richardson
Offensive Rating: 110 (114)
Defensive Rating: 101 (104)
PER: 12.3 (12.9)

Jameer Nelson
Offensive Rating: 117 (110)
Defensive Rating: 102 (106)
PER: 20.1 (15.5)

Brandon Bass
Offensive Rating: 119 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 20.3 (16.5)

Chris Duhon
Offensive Rating: 88 (107)
Defensive Rating: 104 (114)
PER: 5.6 (10.7)

Mickael Pietrus
Offensive Rating: 106 (106)
Defensive Rating: 101 (104)
PER: 9.6 (11.9)

J.J. Redick
Offensive Rating: 109 (123)
Defensive Rating: 103 (108)
PER: 10.3 (15.0)

Marcin Gortat
Offensive Rating: 118 (113)
Defensive Rating: 97 (99)
PER: 15.0 (13.9)

The Magic have really turned up the defense in 2010.  After finishing fourth in the NBA last season in Defensive Rating and allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions, Orlando is now first in the NBA, allowing only 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Every player in their rotation has improved their Defensive Rating.  The stingier defense has made up for a drop in efficiency on the other side of the floor.  The Magic are currently averaging 4.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last season.

Any discussion about the Magic players has to start with Howard.  He's taken his Defensive Rating down to a ridiculous, and league-leading, 92.  That's from a tremendous 95 in 2009/10.  His 24.2 PER is good for eighth in the NBA.  All of his stats are in line with his recent numbers.  The bottom line - he's playing as well as he ever has.

Surprisingly, Lewis has played more minutes than anyone else on the Magic.  In reality, he'd be behind Howard if not for the stomach bug.  And don't assume Lewis is putting in productive minutes because he really is not.  His PER continues to plummet and is at 11.6 through 21 games, the worst mark since his rookie season and a good bit below the NBA average of 15.0.  While his three-point shooting is a respectable 37.6%, that is still his worst performance behind the arc in seven years.  His overall shooting percentage is down, as are his assist rate, steal rate and rebounds per 36 minutes.

When he's been on the floor Nelson has been excellent.  He's bounced back nicely from a subpar 2009-10, improving his PER from 15.5 to 20.1.  His assists per 36 minutes are up to 8.5 from 6.8 last season.  His shooting touch has also come back.  He's currently knocking down 49.2% of all of his shots and 40.7% of his threes.  The only negative is that he's averaging almost half a turnover more per 36 minutes.

Carter doesn't seem to like to bring his game to the playoffs but his regular season production level has been respectable.  He's keeping it up this year by matching his PER from last season.  He's improved his field-goal shooting but he's turning the ball over at a higher rate than he ever has.

Brought in for his three-point shooting, Richardson hasn't quite delivered at the level Orlando was hoping for.  He's currently shooting 34.5% from downtown compared to 39.7% last season.  Otherwise his PER is right about at the expected level.

Bass has been extremely productive off the bench and has the second highest PER on the team.  This is the fourth year in a row he has improved his PER.  He's shooting a career best 52.3% and is averaging 8.5 rebounds per 36 minutes.

Orlando's backcourt reserves have been disappointing.  Duhon has cut a poor 2009-10 PER in half for a terrible, career low PER so far this season.  Per 36 minutes he's averaging the fewest assists and most turnovers in his career.  Fellow Dukie Redick has failed to carry the momentum from a solid 2009-10 into this season.  He's shooting a putrid 28.6% from three point range.  Pietrus is an interesting case.  He's putting up a career worst 9.5 PER but is shooting a career best 42.9% behind the arc.

Overall, it's been excellent defense that has propelled the Magic to a very good 15-6 record.  To continue to win games they are going to need Nelson to stay healthy and for somebody to step up their offensive game.  That may mean Howard delivering massively in the post or more consistent three point shooting from the wings and Lewis. Or perhaps it will be a new piece if Orlando makes a big trade.  That may be the only way the final results of the season will change.  Because otherwise they are basically a lesser version of last year's team that lost in the Eastern Conference Finals and I'm not confident that any one of their players is playing at a level that so far exceeds where they were then that they will drive the team to victory.

What are your thoughts on Orlando's first 21 games?  Are they good enough to make it to the NBA Finals?  Post a comment below and share your views.

Dallas Mavericks at the Quarter Pole

At 16-4 the Mavericks are second to only the division rival Spurs in the Western Conference and NBA standings.  They've been as impressive as anybody and have currently won nine in a row.  Interestingly, three of their four losses have been at home.  They are 8-1 on the road with the only loss coming in New Orleans.  They've won at Atlanta, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Utah.

Clearly Dallas has been one of the better teams in the NBA through the first quarter of the season.  Let's take a deeper look at the statistics and see what else we can learn about the Mavs.

But first, I predicted Dallas would finish the season at 53-29.

Photo source: dherrera_96

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 108.2 (12th in the NBA) [109.2 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 101.8 (5th) [106.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 6.4 [2.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 98.0 (19th) [102.0 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 92.2 (3rd) [99.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 90.6 (25th) [92.5 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Dirk Nowitzki
Offensive Rating: 117 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 24.6 (22.9)

Jason Kidd
Offensive Rating: 109 (115)
Defensive Rating: 102 (105)
PER: 15.4 (17.2)

Jason Terry
Offensive Rating: 109 (112)
Defensive Rating: 103 (109)
PER: 18.0 (16.5)

Tyson Chandler
Offensive Rating: 138 (107)
Defensive Rating: 97 (102)
PER: 18.7 (12.5)

Shawn Marion
Offensive Rating: 104 (107)
Defensive Rating: 101 (106)
PER: 15.5 (14.7)

Caron Butler
Offensive Rating: 97 (101)
Defensive Rating: 102 (108)
PER: 13.0 (13.7)

Jose Barea
Offensive Rating: 96 (104)
Defensive Rating: 105 (110)
PER: 11.2 (12.8)

Brendan Haywood
Offensive Rating: 102 (117)
Defensive Rating: 100 (106)
PER: 10.0 (16.1)

DeShawn Stevenson
Offensive Rating: 126 (83)
Defensive Rating: 105 (112)
PER: 14.2 (3.3)

Would you believe that the Mavericks are doing it with defense?  A team that has lived in the freewheeling, faster-paced "offense can always beat the defense" mindset has found a great deal of success in focusing on defense.  They've improved their Defensive Rating a tremendous 4.5 points and are now ranked fifth in the NBA.  They've slowed their pace by nearly two possessions per game but are still almost as efficient on offense as last season.  And they've improved their rating differential from 2.9 in 2009-10 to 6.4.

As they have been for quite some time now, the Mavs are led by Nowitzki.  His 24.6 PER ranks him eighth in the NBA.  He's shooting 55.3% overall, his best percentage by a wide margin, and continues to contribute in every area of the game.

Kidd currently has the lowest PER since his rookie season 16 years ago.  His field goal shooting is lower than it's ever been in his career but his 35.7% mark behind the arc is still above his career number.  Also on the positive side, he's averaging more assists per 36 minutes of play than he has in all but one of his 17 seasons.

The stronger focus on defense certainly shows in Terry's numbers.  He's putting up the best Defensive Rating of his career and is averaging more steals per 36 minutes than he ever has.  He's also providing the Mavericks a dependable spark off the bench.

Chandler has been a fantastic addition.  His 138 Offensive Rating is tops in the NBA and his 97 Defensive Rating is also excellent.  His PER is higher than it's ever been.  His shooting percentage from the field and the free throw line are at career highs.  Most importantly, he's been able to stay healthy, playing in all 20 games. 

Formerly known as the Matrix, Marion is not the player he used to be.  He's still serviceable though and has improved his PER slightly from a career low last season.  He's an awful three-point shooter but his overall field-goal percentage hovers around 50.  It is concerning that his turnover rate is at a career worst.

For the third year in a row Butler's production is dropping.  His PER is now at a dangerously low 13.0, well below the league average of 15.0.  He's still living off the reputation he earned three and four years ago in Washington but he is nowhere near as effective.

Barea gets too many minutes for a guy who's never had a positive differential and whose PER is a poor 11.2.  His three-point shooting has fallen off a cliff this year and currently stands at 15.9%.

After a solidly productive 2009-10, Haywood is having the worst year of his career.  He's shooting very well from the field but everything else is way down.

Stevenson's shooting has kept him in the rotation, in fact he's started 15 of the 17 games he's played despite a PER that ranks him as below average.  Knocking down 51.1% of your three point shots will always keep you in the game.

Looking at the individual stats further makes the case that defense is the key to the Mavericks' hot start.  All nine players in the rotation have improved their Defensive Rating from last year.  Chandler has given Dallas a big boost on the defensive end and his excellent production levels are making up for Haywood's drop off. 

If the Mavericks can continue to excel on defense they will be tough to beat.  Their problem may be that when they get in a playoff series with a team with a lot of offensive weapons they may not have the firepower to keep up.

What are your thoughts on the Mavericks through the first 20 games of the year?  Post a comment below and let me know.

Los Angeles Lakers at the Quarter Pole

The Lakers started the season looking unbeatable and winning their first eight.  Then Denver and Phoenix beat them consecutively.  But L.A. responded to those two losses with five victories in a row.  Shockingly though, they would follow the winning streak with a four game losing streak including losses to the likes of Indiana, Houston and Memphis.

So the Lakers stand at 14-6.  Considering their start, the record is disappointing.  Even more so when you consider they are 14-6 against the second weakest schedule in the NBA by opponents' winning percentage.

Let's take a look at what the statistics tell us.  But first, I projected the Lakers to finish the season at 54-28.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 115.2 (1st in the NBA) [108.8 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 105.8 (12th) [103.7 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 9.4 [5.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 108.5 (2nd) [101.7 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 99.6 (16th) [97.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.1 (9th) [92.8 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Pau Gasol
Offensive Rating: 127 (120 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 103 (102)
PER: 24.7 (22.9)

Photo source: bridgetds

Lamar Odom
Offensive Rating: 122 (109)
Defensive Rating: 104 (100)
PER: 19.9 (15.9)

Kobe Bryant
Offensive Rating: 112 (109)
Defensive Rating: 107 (104)
PER: 24.7 (21.9)

Ron Artest
Offensive Rating: 107 (106)
Defensive Rating: 107 (105)
PER: 11.5 (12.1)

Derek Fisher
Offensive Rating: 112 (105)
Defensive Rating: 108 (106)
PER: 10.5 (9.3)

Matt Barnes
Offensive Rating: 121 (111)
Defensive Rating: 105 (103)
PER: 17.7 (13.6)

Shannon Brown
Offensive Rating: 122 (105)
Defensive Rating: 105 (105)
PER: 20.4 (12.4)

Steve Blake
Offensive Rating: 111 (108)
Defensive Rating: 110 (111)
PER: 10.3 (11.6)

As a team the Lakers have a spectacular Offensive Rating.  They are averaging 115.2 points per 100 possessions, good for first in the NBA and 6.4 points more than they averaged per 100 possessions in 2009-10.  And as you would expect, without Andrew Bynum their Defensive Rating has fallen, from 103.7 last season to 105.8 through the first 20 games.  But overall their differential has improved from 5.1 to 9.4.  That's tremendous.

He may be third in minutes played but the Lakers fortunes clearly rest on Kobe's shoulders.  And in reality the fact that he's averaging only 33.1 minutes per game, the lowest since his second year in the NBA, is a very good sign.  When it comes to effectiveness, Kobe's PER is the highest it's been in four years.  His shooting has fallen slightly from last year but when you look at his stats per 36 minutes his rebounds and assists are both up and he's getting to the charity stripe at a rate that matches his career high.

Gasol has been nothing short of spectacular so far in 2010.  He's posting a career high 24.7 PER and career bests in rebounds per game (11.6), free-throw shooting (82.6%) and turnover rate.  The only concern for Gasol is that he's averaging the second highest minutes per game of his career (38.7).  After all the games he's played through three straight NBA Finals runs that's not a good idea.

After a subpar season, Odom is currently on pace to put up the most productive year of his career.  His 19.9 PER is a nice four point jump from 2009-10.  His Offensive Rating is the highest it's ever been.  At 57.9% overall and 45.5% from behind the arc he's shooting better than ever before.

It appears that Artest is continuing to slide.  His PER has dropped for the third consecutive year and is quite a bit below the NBA average of 15.0.  Maybe more concerning, he also has the second worst Defensive Rating of his career.  His shooting percentage, rebound rate and assist percentage are all the lowest they've ever been.

To make up for Artest's poor productivity, the Lakers are getting stellar contributions from their wings off the bench.  Both Barnes and Brown are putting up the best PER and Offensive Rating of their careers.  Barnes is shooting better than he ever has from behind the arc (39.6%) and from the free throw line (80.5%) while also grabbing a higher percentage of the rebounds available to him than he ever has (13.3%).  Brown has also been outstanding from three point range (43.1%) while raising the level of every other piece of his game.

When looking at pure production, point guard has been another story.  Fisher has a PER of 10.5 and Blake 10.3.  But both are doing what the L.A. offense asks of them - hitting threes.  Fisher is shooting nearly two a game and making 47.4% while Blake is shooting nearly three and a half a game and putting 47.7% through the hoop.

From a numbers standpoint the Lakers have been superb, both as a team and individually.  And when you take a closer look at the margins in the games they've lost you see they are quite small.  Should they be worried?  I say no.  Bynum's return should help them quite a bit defensively.  They will also be a better team overall with him in the mix.  Considering what the numbers say about them now, it should be the rest of the NBA that's worried.

What are your thoughts on what you've seen so far from the Lakers?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Oklahoma City Thunder at the Quarter Pole

Photo source: Yzukerman

Much was expected of the Thunder coming into this season.  Many NBA experts were throwing around Oklahoma City's name as a team that could challenge the Lakers in the Western Conference. 

After some early season struggles (they started 3-3) the Thunder have gotten back to their winnning ways.  However, unlike 2009-2010 when they were incredibly healthy, they have been bitten by the injury bug this season.  Kevin Durant has already missed four of their 20 games while Jeff Green has missed seven.

What's working and what's not for OKC?  Let's take a look at the statistics.  But first, I predicted the Thunder would finish the season at 54-28.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 108.3 (12th in the NBA) [108.3 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 108.6 (20th) [104.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -0.3 [3.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 103.1 (7th) [101.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 103.3 (22nd) [98.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 92.8 (15th) [93.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Russell Westbrook
Offensive Rating: 112 (105)
Defensive Rating: 107 (106)
PER: 26.1 (17.8)

Kevin Durant
Offensive Rating: 105 (118)
Defensive Rating: 108 (104)
PER: 20.7 (26.2)

Thabo Sefolosha
Offensive Rating: 112 (103)
Defensive Rating: 107 (104)
PER: 10.6 (9.8)

Serge Ibaka
Offensive Rating: 125 (109)
Defensive Rating: 106 (101)
PER: 18.5 (15.2)

Jeff Green
Offensive Rating: 115 (106)
Defensive Rating: 111 (105)
PER: 16.0 (13.8)

James Harden
Offensive Rating: 106 (109)
Defensive Rating: 109 (104)
PER: 11.5 (14.0)

Nenad Krstic
Offensive Rating: 101 (111)
Defensive Rating: 111 (106)
PER: 10.0 (13.7)

Eric Maynor
Offensive Rating: 110 (103)
Defensive Rating: 110 (107)
PER: 14.6 (11.8)

Nick Collison
Offensive Rating: 107 (120)
Defensive Rating: 111 (105)
PER: 9.1 (13.1)

The thing that immediately jumps out when you look at OKC's team stats is their Defensive Rating.  It's going in the wrong direction, up four points to 108.6.  They are allowing their opponents to make 39.1% of their shots.  That number is fifth worst in the NBA.  Last season they were tied with the 10th best mark at 36.6%.  They are specifically bad at defending the three, allowing their opponents to shoot 39.0% behind the arc, which is fourth worst in the NBA.  Their 34.0% mark last year was tied for third best.

Looking at the players, Westbrook has exploded this year.  He's currently ranked 2nd in the NBA in PER, just behind Chris Paul.  He's also got a positive rating differential for the first time in his three year career.  When Durant has been out, much of the responsibility for carrying the Thunder has fallen on Westbrook and he has responded.  All of his stats have shown gains over last season.  Most importantly, his shooting has improved from 41.8% to 44.7%. 

After being as healthy as possible last season, Durant has been hampered by injuries in 2010.  It's only caused him to miss four games but has clearly affected him in others.  While still tremendous, his 20.7 PER is down 5.5 points.  For the first time since his rookie season, he's working with a negative rating differential (-3).  His field-goal shooting is down from 47.6% in 2009/10 to 41.9% and his three-point shooting has fallen a ghastly 9.8% to 26.7%.

The quick ascension of Ibaka has been impressive.  In only his second year, the hidden gem is putting up an impressive 18.5 PER.  He's making more than 56% of his shots and leads the team with 2.2 blocks per game.  He also has the best Defensive Rating of the rotation players.

After a shockingly ineffective 2009/10, Green has been much more productive while playing in 13 of the first 20 games of this season.  He's at the highest PER of his career, 16.0.  For the third year in a row he has raised his Offensive Rating, it's currently the second best on the team.  He's shooting a career best 82.6% from the free throw line and has decreased his turnovers despite playing more minute per game.  Now if he can only stay healthy.

Known as a defensive player, Sefolosha has the highest Offensive Rating of his career.  It is also the first time his differential has been in positive territory.  However, he's still not producing a lot, as his 10.6 PER is way below the league average of 15.0.

Harden has taken a step back after a solid rookie season.  His PER is down 2.5 points.  He's not shooting as well, only 36.5% on field goals compared to 40.3% in 2009/10, and it is affecting his confidence.

After contributing steadily last season, both Krstic and Collison have seen substantial dropoffs.  In Collison's case it may be due to his continued recovery from serious knee issues.

Unlike Harden, Maynor has shown steady improvement in his second year.  He's shooting much better and has cut his turnover rate.

While they have not taken the next big step, Oklahoma City has carried their level of solid play over from the end of last season.  They do need to shore up the defense and to hope that injuries do not continue to be part of their 2010/11 story.  If Durant can come close to his massive production numbers last season, Harden can find his shooting stroke and Westbrook, Ibaka and Green can match their early effectiveness, this team may very well challenge the Lakers. 

What are your thoughts on the Thunder 20 games into the season?  Are they playing the way you thought they would?  Post a comment below and let's discuss.

Denver Nuggets - Early Season Returns

While facing daily speculation about trading Carmelo Anthony the Nuggets have started the 2010/11 season with a very respectable 10-6 record.  They only have one bad loss, at Indiana.  "Bad" in this case is more a result of the ridiculous margin, 144-113, than the fact they lost the game.  They have also showed that they can beat the top teams.  They have wins over the Jazz, Lakers and Bulls at home, as well as a victory in Dallas. 

How does their performance measure up?  Let's take a look at the numbers.  But first, I predicted the Nuggets would finish the season with a 50-32 record.

Photo source: dherrera_96

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 110.4 (4th in the NBA) [111.8 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 107.8 (17th) [107.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 2.6 [4.3 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.0 (5th) [106.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 103.6 (23rd) [102.4 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 96.0 (4th) [94.8 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Arron Afflalo
Offensive Rating: 119 (114 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 110 (111)
PER: 13.4 (10.8)

Carmelo Anthony
Offensive Rating: 111 (110)
Defensive Rating: 105 (109)
PER: 23.1 (22.2)

Chauncey Billups
Offensive Rating: 108 (120)
Defensive Rating: 110 (110)
PER: 14.5 (20.2)

Al Harrington
Offensive Rating: 103 (106)
Defensive Rating: 108 (111)
PER: 13.2 (16.8)

Nene
Offensive Rating: 125 (124)
Defensive Rating: 108 (105)
PER: 17.9 (18.9)

Ty Lawson
Offensive Rating: 110 (118)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 14.1 (16.5)

Shelden Williams
Offensive Rating: 108 (118)
Defensive Rating: 106 (103)
PER: 12.2 (14.1)

J.R. Smith
Offensive Rating: 111 (101)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 16.1 (15.1)

Gary Forbes
Offensive Rating: 109 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 109
PER: 16.2

Melvin Ely
Offensive Rating: 125 (not in NBA last season)
Defensive Rating: 106
PER: 11.6

While the Nuggets offensive efficiency has slipped when compared to last season they still have the fourth best mark in the NBA.  The fact that their defensive efficiency is only slightly worse bodes well for Denver, who has been without the two players who had the best Defensive Ratings on the team last year, Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin.

Despite the daily rumors, Anthony has had a spectacular season so far.  His 23.1 PER puts him 11th in the NBA and is up from an excellent 22.2 in 2009/10.  Most impressively, he's pulling down two additional rebounds per game in 2010 despite the fact that he's averaging three less minutes per game.  That's because he's grabbing a career best 20.6% of the boards available to him on the defensive end.  That percentage is second among NBA small forwards who average more than 15 minutes per game.

Unfortunately for Denver, Billups has suffered a big drop in effectiveness.  His PER has fallen 5.7 points and his Offensive Rating has dropped 12 points per 100 possessions.  Both marks are 10 year lows.  His shooting percentage is way down to less than 37%.  His scoring, rebounds and assists averages are also down and his turnovers are up.

In his fourth year Afflalo continues to improve.  While his PER is not exactly spectacular, he is following up an excellent 2009/10 of 43.4% three-point shooting with 43.6% shooting from behind the arc this season.

Nene's PER is down a notch from 18.9 to 17.9 so far but there is nothing alarming in his statistics.  His steal rate has dropped a bit and he's down slightly on rebounds, which can be explained by Carmelo's hunger for the boards.

More disappointing for the Nuggets is the decrease in production year over year from Harrington and Lawson.  Granted, Harrington was not on the Denver roster last year, but when they signed him to a free agent deal I'm sure they didn't expect him to reach an eight year low in efficiency.  In Lawson's case the culprit is his shooting.  Otherwise, his assist rate is up and his turnover rate is down.  Obviously those are important statistics for a point guard.

After struggling last season, Smith seems to have found his game again.  Not only is he shooting a career best 40.9% from three-point range his rebound percentage is up and his turnover rate is down by almost 40%.

Beyond those key players, Denver has utilized Williams, Forbes and Ely in the frontcourt as they've waited for the return of Andersen and Martin.  Led by Anthony this team has performed as well as can be expected.  If he stays, and Billups and Harrington can raise their games up to their historical averages then the Nuggets may be able to make a surprise run toward the Western Conference Finals.

What have you seen that you've liked and disliked out of the Nuggets so far this season?  Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Early Season Returns

Little is expected from the Timberwolves this NBA season, but the nice thing is they've shown some reasons for hope.  It's not necessarily reflected in their 4-12 record, but in the mostly consistent impact of Kevin Love and Michael Beasley and in the recent flashes of competency by Darko Milicic.  Who else is exceeding or missing expectations?  Let's take a look at some advanced statistics.

But first, I predicted the Timberwolves would put up a 16-66 record.

Photo source: k1k0.com

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 101.7 (29th in the NBA) [101.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 110.8 (28th) [111.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -9.1 [-9.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.5 (9th) [98.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 110.6 (30th) [107.8 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 99.1 (1st) [96.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Kevin Love
Offensive Rating: 113 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 109 (109)
PER: 22.4 (20.7)

Michael Beasley
Offensive Rating: 100 (101)
Defensive Rating: 111 (103)
PER: 16.9 (16.1)

Wesley Johnson
Offensive Rating: 105 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 114
PER: 9.8

Darko Milicic
Offensive Rating: 90 (101)
Defensive Rating: 106 (109)
PER: 12.5 (12.8)

Sebastian Telfair
Offensive Rating: 101 (98)
Defensive Rating: 115 (111)
PER: 10.4 (10.3)

Corey Brewer
Offensive Rating: 98 (98)
Defensive Rating: 106 (111)
PER: 12.8 (12.1)

Anthony Tolliver
Offensive Rating: 122 (111)
Defensive Rating: 111 (112)
PER: 14.3 (13.6)

Luke Ridnour
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 113 (106)
PER: 13.7 (17.7)

Wayne Ellington
Offensive Rating: 85 (101)
Defensive Rating: 114 (115)
PER: 5.3 (9.6)

Nikola Pekovic
Offensive Rating: 96 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 114
PER: 8.7

After playing at the third fastest pace in the NBA in the 2009/10 season (96.1 possessions per game), Minnesota has sped up the game even more to play at the fastest pace (99.1) in the league through their first 16 games.  At this point it doesn't seem to be helping them very much.  While they've improved their defensive efficiency ever so slighly, their offensive efficiency is identical to last season.  The quicker pace does make them a little more fun for fans to watch.

Love has already posted some ridiculous stat lines.  His 31-point 31-rebound effort against the Knicks was phenomenal.  On Wednesday night he put up 32 and 22 against the Spurs.  He was a very productive player last year, although mostly under the radar, so his PER has not jumped dramatically.  But, it's very important to note that he is the 17th best player in the NBA right now by PER.

While Beasley's PER has improved slightly, it is somewhat alarming what he's done with his Defensive Rating.  It's fallen from a respectable 103 last season to 110 in 2010.  That can be attributed in part to pace.  Consider the Miami Heat team he was a member of in 2009/10 played at a pace of 89.6 possessions per game, nearly 10 fewer than the Timberwolves.  To his credit, he has raised his shooting percentages nicely, from 45.0 to 47.6 on twos and from 27.5 to 45.5 behind the arc.

No player in the rest of the rotation is producing at the NBA average PER of 15.0.  Free agent signee Tolliver is the closest at 14.3 in less than 20 minutes a game. 

Ridnour recently returned from a hamstring injury.  He's been decent but his PER has fallen from 17.7 last season to 13.7 so far in 2010.  However, he is shooting an impressive 40% from three-point range.  Telfair played the majority of the minutes at the point with Ridnour out.  Based on past performance, his production level is right about what should be expected. 

Besides Beasley, the Timberwolves are struggling to get production from their wings.  Brewer continues to improve at a snail's pace.  To the positive, his Defensive Rating is better by five points per 100 possessions.  Shooting has never been his strength but he's been particularly awful this season.  He's shooting a career worst 35.8%.  The rookie from Syracuse, Johnson, is also struggling with his shooting.

Clearly Minnesota will not be contending for the Western Conference playoffs, nobody expected that to happen.  But, to be happy about their progress they'll want to see some considerable growth in the players that they want to build their future around.  Right now there are just not enough of those types of players.  Love and Beasley are looking good.  Beyond that the Timberwolves need more consistent production from the other youngsters like Johnson and Brewer, and Johnny Flynn when he returns from injury.

What are your observations about the Timberwolves so far in this young season?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Milwaukee Bucks - Early Season Returns

To put it bluntly, the Bucks have been one of my biggest disappointments in 2010.  Before the season I predicted Milwaukee would put up a 49-33 record.  They are currently muddling around at 5-8.  The good news is that they only have two losses that would be lumped in the "Bad" category for a team that should be challenging for the Central Division title, at Minnesota and at Philadelphia.  But, if they don't start winning quickly they may find themselves in a hole from which they will not be able to dig out.

What have been the Bucks' biggest challenges?  Let's take a look at the advanced stats.

Photo source: compujeramey

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 99.4 (30th in the NBA) [104.9 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 99.1 (2nd) [103.1 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 0.3 [1.8 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 91.4 (30th) [97.7 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 91.1 (1st) [96.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.2 (22nd) [91.7 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Brandon Jennings
Offensive Rating: 104 (100 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 17.0 (14.5)

John Salmons
Offensive Rating: 96 (110)
Defensive Rating: 102 (106)
PER: 10.3 (14.7)

Andrew Bogut
Offensive Rating: 103 (107)
Defensive Rating: 96 (98)
PER: 16.5 (20.7)

Drew Gooden
Offensive Rating: 103 (109)
Defensive Rating: 97 (106)
PER: 16.6 (16.9)

Luc Mbah a Moute
Offensive Rating: 97 (111)
Defensive Rating: 99 (103)
PER: 9.2 (11.8)

Corey Maggette
Offensive Rating: 103 (116)
Defensive Rating: 102 (113)
PER: 15.1 (20.3)

Carlos Delfino
Offensive Rating: 104 (103)
Defensive Rating: 99 (103)
PER: 12.8 (12.9)

Ersan Ilyasova
Offensive Rating: 95 (110)
Defensive Rating: 98 (102)
PER: 11.3 (15.7)

Keyon Dooling
Offensive Rating: 82 (102)
Defensive Rating: 103 (113)
PER: 4.0 (11.6)

Earl Boykins
Offensive Rating: 104 (103)
Defensive Rating: 99 (114)
PER: 16.3 (12.9)

Jon Brockman
Offensive Rating: 107 (124)
Defensive Rating: 100 (110)
PER: 6.3 (12.4)

Looking at the team numbers the problem for the Bucks is clear - it's the offense.  They are currently last in the NBA at 99.4 points per 100 possessions.  They are also the worst shooting team in the NBA at 41.1%.  Keeping them afloat is their solid defense.  They are holding opponents to just 99.1 points per 100 possessions, the second best mark in the NBA.

Second year player Jennings cannot be blamed for the dropoff.  He's improved in all three areas noted above.  He's gone from a -4 differential to a +4 differential, a solid jump.  While still not a deadeye, he's raised his shooting to 39.4% from 37.1% last season.

After a very productive 2009/10 Bogut has dropped off a bit this year.  His shooting has fallen from 52% to 48% and his free throw shooting is an absolutely atrocious 46.3%.  He has maintained his defensive prowess however, letting up only 96 points per 100 possessions.

Gooden has given the Bucks right about what they should have been expecting.  His PER is just down a notch but his defense has benefitted from the emphasis on it in Milwaukee.  He's currently posting the best Defensive Rating of his career.

I'm surprised at how poorly Salmons is playing.  Right now he has the worst Offensive Rating of his nine year career.  After joining the Bucks toward the end of last season he posted a solid 17.6 PER.  That number is way down, to 10.3 through the first 13 games.  The main culprit - his shooting, which has dropped nearly 100 points.  He has been playing through an injury.  Hopefully he can put that behind him and start delivering on a more consistent basis.

Free agent acquisition Maggette is also struggling to provide the boost Milwaukee was hoping for when they signed him.  His PER has fallen 5.2 points from last season.  Like the others, he cannot put the ball through the twine.  At 41% he's shooting worse than in any other year of his career.  His assist percentage is also less than half of what it was in 2009/10.

Delfino started the first seven games before getting hurt.  He has improved his shooting but is down in most every other category despite playing bigger minutes.

Making our way down the rotation, the Bucks have to be disappointed in the production of Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova, Dooling and Brockman. 

How would you rate the Bucks through the first 13 games?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.