Deron Williams and Devin Harris - Performance Comparison

After putting together the 2010-11 performance comparison between Chauncey Billups and Raymond Felton I thought it would be interesting to compare some of the other point guards who were involved in trades.

Next up are Deron Williams and Devin Harris.  I was shocked by the abruptness of Utah's trade of Williams.  I certainly consider Williams to be one of the best point guards in the NBA.  While he was only sixth in my midseason point guard rankings for 2010-11, he was first in my 2009-10 full season point guard rankings.  However, I do think that the Jazz got a lot of value out of the trade.

I didn't expect the stats of Williams and Harris to be competitive, but I was curious to see how far apart they were.  Here's what the key statistics look like:

. Statistic Deron Williams Devin Harris . MPG 37.9 31.9 . PER 21.98 17.92 . EWA 11.4 6.1 . True S% 58.2 54.3 . 3FG% 33.6 30.2 . Ast/36 9.4 8.6 . Tur/36 3.3 3.3 . ORtg 115 108 . DRtg 112 111 . Opp PER 14.9 18.3 . On Ct/48 0.8 -5.9 . Off Ct/48 7.7 -8

Not surprisingly there is a rather large gap between the performances of Williams and Harris so far this season.  Williams is more than four points better in PER and has contributed five more wins than Harris has in 2010-11.

The only stat lines where Harris can compete with Williams are turnovers per 36 minutes and Defensive Rating.  However, when it comes to defense Williams is much better in Opponent's PER than Harris.

For the Nets the final grade on the trade for Deron Williams will come down to whether they are able to sign him to a contract extension.  I give them a lot of credit for having the courage to make this type of trade.  For the most part the writing is on the wall - a franchise will not win an NBA title in the near future without top flight superstars.  New Jersey decided the opportunity to add one of the best point guards in the game was worth the risk.

Chauncey Billups and Raymond Felton - Performance Comparison

The huge trade between the Knicks, Nuggets and Timberwolves that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York is now official.  While clearly the big headline is Carmelo getting the outcome he always wanted and the question of whether he can help make the Knicks a championship contender, one of the more interesting angles to me is the swap of Chauncey Billups and Raymond Felton.

Let's compare the performance of Billups and Felton so far this season and look at what Billups will bring to the Knicks that Felton did not.

. Statistic Chauncey Billups Raymond Felton . MPG 32.3 38.4 . PER 18.8 17.34 . EWA 6.4 6.5 . True S% 63.4 52.4 . 3FG% 44.1 32.8 . Ast/36 5.9 8.5 . Tur/36 2.8 3.1 . ORtg 120 108 . DRtg 112 111 . Opp PER 17.6 17.6 . On Ct/48 3.6 -0.2 . Off Ct/48 2.3 5

When you look at the statistics above you see that there has not been a large gap between the production levels of Billups and Felton.  Billups has a nice lead in PER at 18.8 to Felton's 17.34, but because of the advantage Felton has in minutes played his Estimated Wins Added of 6.5 beats out Billups by a whisker.

Billups has a huge edge in offensive efficiency with an Offensive Rating of 120 points per 100 possessions compared to Felton's 108.  The on court and off court differential numbers are also to Billups' advantage.

But the biggest thing Billups brings to the Knicks that Felton had trouble delivering is outside shooting.  Billups' True Shooting Percentage is 63.4 and he's knocking down 44.1% of his shots from behind the arc.  Felton has struggled from distance, making only 32.8% of his three-pointers.  He started out good, hitting right around 36% on threes in the first month of the season, but perhaps the high number of minutes he's been playing wore him down.

From a statistical standpoint Billups brings an outside shooting element to the point guard position that wasn't there when Felton was manning the helm  for the Knicks.  But, New York may very well have lost some ability in the playmaking department.  Ultimately I think Billups is a nice upgrade at the point because of his shooting, leadership and experience.  Let's not forget, "Mr. Big Shot" is an NBA Finals MVP.

NBA Western Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

Yesterday I posted the roster I think should be representing the Eastern Conference in Sunday's NBA All Star Game.  Today I'm moving on to the Western Conference.  While there were only two roster spots that I would switch out in the East, I'd make twice as many changes in the West.

Photo source: johanohrling

Based on production and efficiency, here's my Western Conference starting five:
G: Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
G: Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
F: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F: Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
C: Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks

My Western Conference starting lineup only includes one of the same players as the starters that the fans voted into the game - Paul.  I'm picking Ginobili over Kobe Bryant at the other guard.  Check out my mid-season shooting guard rankings to see why. 

I've also got Nowitzki and Gasol over Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant at the forward positions.  At center I've got Chandler over Yao Ming, who is injured anyway.  Why Chandler?  Check out my mid-season center rankings where he is the top-rated center in the West.

As for the reserves, here are my seven:
G: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
G: Eric Gordon, Los Angeles Clippers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
C: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
F: David West, New Orleans Hornets
G: Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets

So not only would Anthony not start, he'd be left off my roster completely.  In fact, he's not even the next small forward in line - that would be Rudy Gay. 

Also controversial - I have Gordon and Martin making the team over Russell Westbrook and Deron Williams.  Sure it's hard to believe,but when you compare their production and efficiency Gordon and Martin come out on top.

The final difference is West making the team over Blake Griffin.  I love what Griffin is doing but West beats him out in my mid-season power forward rankings.  However, this one's hard to argue - Griffin is leading West in four of the five advanced statistical categories I include in my rankings.  It's West's huge advantage in Defensive Rating that puts him ahead of Griffin in the cumulative rankings.

NBA Eastern Conference All Stars - The Roster That Should Be

With NBA All Star weekend coming up I want to take a look at the players that I think should be on the Eastern Conference roster.  I'm basing this roster on my mid-season player rankings.  You can find the formula for the ranking system on the 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Small Forward Rankings post.

Photo source: David Jones

Here are the five players that I think earned a starting spot:
G: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
F: Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
C: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

My starting lineup only has one different player from the starters the fans chose.  I have Paul Pierce starting at the forward spot over Amare Stoudamire.

Here are the seven additional Eastern Conference players that I think are worthy of being All Stars:
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
G: Ray Allen, Boston Celtics
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
F: Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
C: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
F: Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls

As you can see, I don't even have Stoudamire on the Eastern Conference All Star roster.  A peek at my 2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings shows you why - Stoudamire is the 14th most productive power forward in the NBA through the first half of the season.  Boozer has been the 10th most productive power forward.

The other roster difference is that I have Noah in place of Joe Johnson.  Johnson finished a very respectable seventh in my mid-season shooting guard rankings but Andre Iguodala, who finished fifth on those same rankings, would have been the next guard in line.  When matched up head-to-head in the five statistical analysis categories I like to use, Noah wins three (PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating) to Johnson's two (Estimated Wins Added and Simple Rating).

Overall, Sunday night's Eastern Conference roster is pretty close to the group I think should be playing.  Ultimately, I don't have an issue with Stoudamire making the team based on his full season contribution to the Knicks versus Boozer and Noah, who both missed significant time.  I do think that one of those Bulls frontliners should have made the team over Johnson.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Center Rankings

I recently posted my mid-season NBA center rankings - here are my observations on the rankings:

• I mentioned it briefly in my initial post - I'm surprised at how close Dwight Howard and Al Horford are at the top of the rankings.  Horford trails Howard by only two total points.
• Howard is first in four of the five categories.  The only exception is the Offensive Rating category in which he's 22nd. 
• Tyson Chandler leads that Offensive Rating category and is a very impressive third.  He and Tim Duncan, who was second in 2009-10, are the second level of centers.
• Andrew Bynum, Nene and Joakim Noah represent the third level.
• The biggest positive surprises to me are Chandler, Jeff Foster and JaVale McGee.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Marc Gasol, Al Jefferson and David Lee.
• Making the biggest jumps from the final 2009-10 rankings are DeAndre Jordan (up 36), Kwame Brown (up 32) and Chandler (up 31).
• Jordan's biggest leap is in the Simple Rating where he was a -7.3 last season but is a 1.4 midway through this season.  He's also already doubled his Estimated Wins Added.
• Chandler has played a big role in Dallas's defensive improvement.  His PER has skyrocketed from 12.58 in 2009-10 to 19.06 so far in 2010-11.  He's already added an estimated 5.3 wins compared to his 1.1 Estimated Wins Added last season.
• Falling the most from the 2009-10 rankings are Jermaine O'Neal (down 35), Brendan Haywood (down 33) and Louis Amundson (down 31).
• Due in large part to his third best Defensive Rating, Omer Asik is the highest ranked rookie.
• The two teams getting the least production from the center position are Phoenix and Cleveland.  The Suns have Channing Frye at 42 and Robin Lopez at 43.  The Cavs have Ryan Hollins at 49.

2010-11 Mid-Season NBA Center Rankings

The top of the mid-season NBA center rankings are surprisingly close - at least to me. Dwight Howard finished solidly in first in the 2009-10 NBA center rankings. But Al Horford is very close to Howard at mid-season.

For additional details on my ranking process for the 2010-11 season take a look at my mid-season small forward rankings.  Through February 7 here are my center rankings:

. PLAYER PER Rank EWA Rank Simple Rank O. Rat Rank D. Rat Rank Totals Final . Dwight Howard, ORL 25.68 1 12.8 1 11.1 1 111 22 95 1 26 1 . Al Horford, ATL 22.45 2 9.7 2 8.2 3 122 5 103 16 28 2 . Tyson Chandler, DAL 19.06 7 5.3 7 4.6 10 134 1 101 13 38 3 . Tim Duncan, SA 21.5 3 7.6 3 8.7 2 109 27 99 7 42 4 . Andrew Bynum, LAL 20.61 5 2.9 16 6.5 4 122 5 104 20 50 5 . Nene, DEN 21.45 4 7.3 4 6 6 128 2 107 35 51 6 . Joakim Noah, CHI 19.54 6 3.9 14 0 22 115 12 96 2 56 7 . Emeka Okafor, NO 16.65 18 4.8 10 3.5 13 113 16 100 9 66 8 . Shaquille O'Neal, BOS 17.31 13 2.5 19 5.2 8 111 22 98 5 67 9 . Andrew Bogut, MIL 17.86 10 5.1 8 6.1 5 101 43 98 5 71 10 . Jeff Foster, IND 16.25 20 1.3 26 5.6 7 118 9 100 9 71 11 . Marc Gasol, MEM 16.7 17 4.9 9 5 9 112 19 104 20 74 12 . JaVale McGee, WSH 17.58 12 4.2 13 4.6 10 112 19 105 30 84 13 . Marcin Gortat, PHX 16.72 16 2.7 18 -3.5 37 117 10 103 16 97 14 . Brook Lopez, NJ 18.74 8 6.9 5 4.6 10 106 33 109 46 102 15 . Brad Miller, HOU 17.59 11 2.3 21 0.5 19 120 7 109 46 104 16 . DeAndre Jordan, LAC 14.68 24 2.5 19 1.4 17 114 15 106 32 107 17 . Ronny Turiaf, NY 14.33 25 1.4 23 1.7 15 127 3 108 42 108 18 . Al Jefferson, UTAH 18.32 9 6.7 6 -3.2 35 109 27 107 35 112 19 . Chuck Hayes, HOU 16.14 21 2.9 16 -2.5 30 124 4 108 42 113 20 . Zydrunas Ilgauskas, MIA 13.09 32 1 30 0.5 19 108 29 100 9 119 21 . Roy Hibbert, IND 15.52 22 3 15 0 22 97 47 102 15 121 22 . Kurt Thomas, CHI 11.26 41 0.2 40 0 22 112 19 97 3 125 23 . David Lee, GS 17 14 4.4 12 1.6 16 108 29 111 56 127 24 . Nazr Mohammed, CHA 16.99 15 2.2 22 -3.3 36 102 39 104 20 132 25 . Kwame Brown, CHA 13.98 27 1.3 26 -2.7 33 115 12 107 35 133 26 . Anthony Tolliver, MIN 13.27 30 0.8 33 2.7 14 116 11 111 56 144 27 . Marreese Speights, PHI 14.88 23 1.1 28 -1 26 104 38 105 30 145 28 . Chris Andersen, DEN 14.03 26 0.5 38 -3.6 38 115 12 106 32 146 29 . Jason Thompson, SAC 13.96 28 1.4 23 -0.4 25 106 33 108 42 151 30 . Samuel Dalembert, SAC 12.69 35 0.9 31 0.4 21 96 50 104 20 157 31 . Andris Biedrins, GS 12.9 34 1.1 28 -5.2 44 113 16 107 35 157 32 . Andrea Bargnani, TOR 16.34 19 4.5 11 -2.6 31 102 39 113 60 160 33 . Omer Asik, CHI 10.69 43 0 42 -2.8 34 101 43 97 3 165 34 . Ben Wallace, DET 12.48 36 0.9 31 -5.2 44 102 39 104 20 170 35 . Nenad Krstic, OKC 12.37 37 0.8 33 -2.4 28 110 25 110 53 176 36 . Darko Milicic, MIN 13.14 31 1.4 23 -2.6 31 92 57 107 35 177 37 . Semih Erden, BOS 10.74 42 0 42 -12.5 58 108 29 99 7 178 38 . Trevor Booker, WSH 13 33 0.6 37 -4.6 41 110 25 109 46 182 39 . Zaza Pachulia, ATL 10.46 44 0 42 -5 43 105 36 104 20 185 40 . Joel Anthony, MIA 7.55 56 -1.4 61 -6 47 119 8 103 16 188 41 . Channing Frye, PHX 11.66 38 0.8 33 -4.7 42 106 33 109 46 192 42 . Robin Lopez, PHX 13.34 29 0.8 33 -4.1 39 107 32 112 59 192 43 . Erick Dampier, MIA 7.49 57 -0.5 55 -2.4 28 100 45 101 13 198 44 . Spencer Hawes, PHI 11.58 39 0.5 38 -6.3 48 93 55 104 20 200 45 . Brendan Haywood, DAL 10.14 47 -0.2 48 -9 55 102 39 103 16 205 46 . Solomon Jones, IND 9.59 50 -0.2 48 -7.5 50 98 46 104 20 214 47 . Francisco Elson, UTAH 10.07 48 -0.1 46 -4.1 39 105 36 109 46 215 48 . Ryan Hollins, CLE 11.46 40 0.2 40 -8.3 53 111 22 113 60 215 49 . Jermaine O'Neal, BOS 9.09 53 -0.2 48 -9.5 56 95 51 100 9 217 50 . Melvin Ely, DEN 8.07 54 -0.4 54 -5.2 44 113 16 110 53 221 51 . Johan Petro, NJ 9.61 49 -0.2 48 -8.9 54 95 51 104 20 222 52 . Jason Collins, ATL 5.39 60 -1.1 60 -2 27 97 47 107 35 229 53 . Kyrylo Fesenko, UTAH 5.72 59 -0.8 58 0.9 18 89 61 109 46 242 54 . Dan Gadzuric, GS 10.33 45 0 42 -10.6 57 94 53 109 46 243 55 . Hilton Armstrong, WSH 7.96 55 -0.5 55 -7.5 50 93 55 106 32 247 56 . Nikola Pekovic, MIN 10.15 46 -0.1 46 -8.2 52 97 47 111 56 247 57 . Josh Powell, ATL 9.51 51 -0.3 53 -13.9 60 94 53 108 42 259 58 . Louis Amundson, GS 9.46 52 -0.2 48 -6.5 49 92 57 110 53 259 59 . Hasheem Thabeet, MEM 4.84 61 -1 59 -18.5 61 91 59 104 20 260 60 . Timofey Mozgov, NY 7.42 58 -0.5 55 -13.5 59 91 59 107 35 266 61

In the next couple of days I'll follow up with my observations.  Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Observations on the Mid-Season NBA Power Forward Rankings

I posted my mid-season NBA power forward rankings earlier in the week - here are my observations on those rankings:

Photo source: bridgetds

• Pau Gasol continues to stay on top of the power forward rankings.  He was first in my final power forward rankings for the 2009-10 season as well.  However, Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett have closed the gap.  Gasol finished 25 points ahead of Garnett and 26 points ahead of Nowitzki in 09-10.  Through mid-season 10-11 he's only 14 ahead of Nowitzki and 16 ahead of Garnett.
• Gasol is in first despite not leading any single category.  Kevin Love has the best PER and Estimated Wins Added.  Nowitzki has the best Simple Rating.  Garnett has the best Defensive Rating.  Oddly, Matt Bonner leads in Offensive Rating.
• There's a large third level with Love, David West, Chris Bosh, Lamar Odom, Zach Randolph and Carlos Boozer all within seven points of each other.
• Ryan Anderson presents an interesting case.  I don't think anyone really believes he's the fourth best power forward in the NBA.  However, he's in the top 10 in all categories except for Estimated Wins Added.  That raises the key point with Anderson - with an average of less than 20 minutes per game his playing time is well below that of everybody in the top 15.
• The biggest positive surprises to me, beyond Anderson, are David West, Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young and Kris Humphries.
• The biggest negative surprises to me are Josh Smith, Jeff Green and Al Harrington.
• The biggest jumpers from the final 09-10 rankings are Thaddeus Young (up 41), Kris Humphries (up 31) and Elton Brand (up 26).
• Young has boosted his PER from 14.08 to 17.96, his Simple Rating from -1.8 to 3.7, his Offensive Rating from 102 to 113 and his Defensive Rating from 111 to 105.
• Those who've fallen the most are Nick Collison (down 33), Dante Cunningham (down 30) and Shelden Williams (down 30).
• Blake Griffin is the highest rated rookie at 11th.  Greg Monroe and Ed Davis, who are tied for 41st, are the next rookies in the rankings.
• The two teams getting the least production from the power forward position are the Wizards and Nuggets.  Washington has Rashard Lewis at 46, Andray Blatche at 55 and Yi Jianlian at 72.  Denver has Kenyon Martin at 51, Al Harrington at 63 and Shelden Williams at 64.