NBA Rookies Progress Report - Picks 11-20

This is part two of my series analyzing the production of NBA rookies through the first couple months of the season.  My first post looked at picks 1-10 of the 2010 NBA Draft.  Now it's time to check in on picks 11-20.

11.  Cole Aldrich - Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder had hoped that Aldrich would fill their need for defensive toughness on the block but he has been slow to raise his play to an NBA level.  He's played in only seven games and has gotten more than ten minutes of PT in only three of those games.  He was sent down to the D-League this week for the second time this season.

Photo source: rrescot

12.  Xavier Henry - Memphis Grizzlies
Games - 28
PER - 7.5
Simple - -5.7
Offensive Rating - 97
Defensive Rating - 111

Henry has started 16 of the 28 games he's played for Memphis, but with a 7.5 PER he hasn't been very productive.  One of his strengths coming into the NBA was supposed to be three-point shooting but he's knocking down less than 12% of the shots he's taking behind the arc.  He's also shooting a rough 41.3% overall.

13.  Ed Davis - Toronto Raptors
Games - 14
PER - 14.4
Simple - -10.0
Offensive Rating - 116
Defensive Rating - 108

After missing the first month of the season Davis hit the court and has been productive for the Raptors, posting a 14.4 PER, fifth best among rookies.  He's also got a positive Offensive/Defensive Rating differential.  He and Derrick Favors are the only two qualifying rookies in the top 20 picks who can say that.  Additionally, he's shooting a very respectable 52.2% and averaging 10.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes.

14.  Patrick Patterson - Houston Rockets

Expected to be an early contributor, Patterson has found it hard to get any burn in Houston.  He's logged only 15 minutes over three games.

15.  Larry Sanders - Milwaukee Bucks
Games - 23
PER - 11.1
Simple - -3.8
Offensive Rating - 89
Defensive Rating - 96

His playing time has been sporadic, but Sanders has been good on the defensive end while on the the court.  His 96 Defensive Rating is the best among top 20 draft picks.  In fact, he's the only one with a Defensive Rating below 100.  He's also averaging a spectacular 3.4 blocks per 36 minutes.  His big improvement area - shooting, he's putting only 38.2% of his shots through the net.

16.  Luke Babbitt - Portland Trail Blazers
Games - 12
PER - -0.8
Simple - -5.0
Offensive Rating - 63
Defensive Rating - 109

Babbitt has played a total of 67 minutes in parts of 12 games and he's been awful.  He's posting an amazingly low -0.8 PER and shooting a dreadful 28%.

17.  Kevin Seraphin - Washington Wizards
Games - 12
PER - 7.0
Simple - -10.7
Offensive Rating - 86
Defensive Rating - 109

Here's another player who is having trouble getting things right on the offensive end.  Seraphin is shooting just 34.3% from the field.  But he's pulling down offensive rebounds at an astounding rate.  He's grabbing more than 21% of the rebounds available to him while on offense.  He's also tied for the Wizards lead in rebounds per 36 minutes with 10.9.

18.  Eric Bledsoe - Los Angeles Clippers
Games - 33
PER - 10.2
Simple - -5.8
Offensive Rating - 93
Defensive Rating - 110

Bledsoe has played in all 33 Clippers games and has started 22 of them because of the injury to Baron Davis.  He's averaging a solid 6.0 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals per 36 minutes.  As you'd expect from a rookie point guard, turnovers are a bit of a problem - he's averaging 3.7 per 36 minutes.

19.  Avery Bradley - Boston Celtics
Games - 11
PER - -3.2
Simple - -14.0
Offensive Rating - 55
Defensive Rating - 100

After not touching the floor for much of the first month, Bradley is just starting to get about six minutes per game in the second half of December.  It hasn't been pretty.  He's shooting a horrid 23.5% and averaging 4.1 turnovers per 36 minutes.

20.  James Anderson - San Antonio Spurs

Anderson got off to a quick start, playing in six of the Spurs first seven games.  A stress fracture in his foot took him off the court but word is that he may be able to start practicing this week.  He played quite well before the injury, knocking down 50% of his three-pointers, averaging 14.3 points per 36 minutes and posting a positive Offensive/Defensive Rating differential.

Just like the first 10 players taken in the 2010 NBA Draft, this next group of 10 is struggling as a whole to make meaningful contributions.  Davis and Bledsoe have risen above the rest while Henry and Sanders have earned PT and been some what productive.  The Spurs also have to be delighted in what they saw in Anderson before the foot injury.  In the next post I'll highlight picks 21-30.

NBA Rookies Progress Report - Picks 1-10

As 2010 comes to a close and NBA teams cross over their 30th game of the season, we've got at least a hint of what the rookie year is going to look like for those players picked in the 2010 NBA Draft.  This will be the first post of a series in which we'll analyze the statistics of NBA rookies.

Photo source: bikeride

If you've read the blog before you know that I like to focus on advanced statistics when evaluating players.  Here are the ones I'll specifically reference:

• John Hollinger of ESPN's PER, or Player Efficiency Rating.  In short, a player's PER is a rating of their per minute productivity.  The average PER in the NBA is always 15.0.
• The Simple Rating of 82games.com.  This rating factors in a player's PER, the PER of the player they are guarding, the player's plus-minus rating when they are in the game and the plus-minus rating of their team when they are not in the game.
• The Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating on Basketball-Reference.com.  The Offensive Rating is how many points the player scores per 100 possessions and the Defensive Rating is how many points the player allows per 100 possessions.

1.  John Wall - Washington Wizards
Games - 16
PER - 16.6
Simple - -0.4
Offensive Rating - 101
Defensive Rating - 108

A knee injury has limited Wall to playing in just 16 of the Wizards' first 28 games.  He has a respectable PER at 16.6, best among all rookies not named Blake Griffin.  He's struggling to find his shot (39.9% field goal percentage), especially from three-point range (32.6%).  To the positive, he's averaging 15.5 points, 8.3 assists and 2.1 steals per 36 minutes.  But as you might expect from a lightning fast guard who's finding his way in the NBA, he's also averaging 3.5 turnovers per 36 minutes. 

2.  Evan Turner - Philadelphia 76ers
Games - 28
PER - 8.0
Simple - -6.3
Offensive Rating - 89
Defensive Rating - 105

Turner has not been the instant contributor that he was expected to be when the Sixers took him with the second pick in the draft.  You can see by his stats above that he's finding it hard to be productive on the next level.  At 39.0%, he's shooting even worse than Wall.  He is averaging 6.5 rebounds per 36 minutes, which is good for a wing.

3.  Derrick Favors - New Jersey Nets
Games - 29
PER - 14.1
Simple - +0.5
Offensive Rating - 112
Defensive Rating - 106

He's continually named as the key piece to a potential Nets' acquisition of Carmelo Anthony, and for good reason.  Despite putting up a slightly below average 14.1 PER, Favors is in positive territory on the Simple Rating and on his Offensive to Defensive differential.  He's the only rookie on this list with those credentials.  He's shooting 55.6% and has the best offensive rebounding rate of all qualifying rookies, including Blake Griffin.  The only challenge - he's averaging 6.2 personal fouls per 36 minutes.

4.  Wesley Johnson - Minnesota Timberwolves
Games - 31
PER - 9.9
Simple - -0.3
Offensive Rating - 105
Defensive Rating - 114

The rookie from Syracuse has logged a lot of minutes for the Timberwolves but has not yet found the magic he had in college.  He has respectable shooting numbers - 45.3% from the field and 37.3% from behind the arc.  But as you can see from his statistics above, he is not making a big impact on the game.

5.  DeMarcus Cousins - Sacramento Kings
Games - 27
PER - 12.2
Simple - -9.8
Offensive Rating - 91
Defensive Rating - 106

Already proving to be a challenge off the court, Cousins has also shown that he's got a lot of work to do on the court.  To the positive, he does lead the Kings with a scoring average of 16.6 per 36 minutes.  He's also pulling in 10.7 rebounds per 36 minutes.  On the negative side, he's shooting just 41.3% and averaging 3.7 turnovers per 36 minutes.

6.  Ekpe Udoh - Golden State Warriors

Udoh has just started to play after breaking his wrist over the summer.

7.  Greg Monroe - Detroit Pistons
Games - 28
PER - 12.0
Simple - -3.8
Offensive Rating - 101
Defensive Rating - 108

Monroe has been more effective since starting to play consistent minutes in December.  At 44.4%, he's struggling with his shot but is averaging a decent 9.3 rebounds per 36 minutes.  I expected the passing skills he showed in college to translate to the NBA but they have not yet.

8.  Al-Farouq Aminu - Los Angeles Clippers
Games - 30
PER - 11.4
Simple - -3.0
Offensive Rating - 95
Defensive Rating - 107

Having shown flashes of excellence, especially when he was playing big minutes in November, Aminu's NBA career is off to a good start.  He's had some of the same offensive efficiency and defensive issues as the other rookies - he's averaging 3.4 turnovers per 36 minutes and shooting just 43.4% from the floor.  But he's also shooting 46.7% from three-point range and leading the Clippers with 1.6 steals per 36 minutes.

9.  Gordon Hayward - Utah Jazz
Games - 24
PER - 5.0
Simple - -23.7
Offensive Rating - 89
Defensive Rating - 110

Hayward's numbers are ridiculously bad, especially his -23.7 Simple Rating.  His shooting was supposed to be his strong suit but he's knocking down only 40.4% of his shots.

10.  Paul George - Indiana Pacers
Games - 8
PER - 8.6
Simple - -11.4
Offensive Rating - 92
Defensive Rating - 104

Clearly the Pacers expected George to contribute early - he played 20 minutes or more in each of their first three games.  His minutes decreased in each of the first six games.  Since then he's only played in two additional games.  He has shot a dreadful 34.1% and struggled to provide any sort of boost when he was playing.

Transitioning to the NBA is not a simple task.  As this look at the top 10 picks of the 2010 NBA draft shows, even the most highly-regarded talent can struggle in the most competitive of courts.  So far, Wall and Favors stand out above the others with Aminu and Cousins behind them.  In the next post I'll highlight picks 11-20.

LeBron Alley Oop from Carlos Arroyo at Mid-Court

This alley oop from Carlos Arroyo at mid-court to LeBron is pretty nasty!

Blake Griffin Alley Oop from Baron Davis

Another nasty Blake Griffin dunk...

Analyzing the Magic Trades with the Suns and Wizards

The Magic pulled the trigger on two huge trades that will alter the foundation of one of the top contenders for the Eastern Conference title.  Orlando had lost five of their last six games and there was a lot of talk about major chemistry issues.  So Magic president Otis Smith decided it was time to really do something about it.

Photo source: Ttodaizzm

Orlando shipped Rashard Lewis to Washington for Gilbert Arenas.  They then traded Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, a 2011 first round pick and cash to Phoenix for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark.

There's a lot of speculation about what the trade will mean for each team involved.  As you might expect, I want to take a look at some advanced stats to see what they may tell us.  I'll refer to a few different advanced statistics:

• John Hollinger of ESPN's PER, or Player Efficiency Rating.  In short, a player's PER is a rating of their per minute productivity.  The average PER in the NBA is always 15.0.
• The Simple Rating of 82games.com.  This rating factors in a player's PER, the PER of the player they are guarding, the player's plus-minus rating when they are in the game and the plus-minus rating of their team when they are not in the game.
• The Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating on Basketball-Reference.com.  The Offensive Rating is how many points the player scores per 100 possessions and the Defensive Rating is how many points the player allows per 100 possessions.

I first want to compare the individual statistics of the players involved and then the impact on each of the teams.  Here are the statistics for the two players involved in the Wizards and Magic deal:

Rashard Lewis
Games: 25
PER: 11.4
Simple: -4.4
Offensive Rating: 103
Defensive Rating: 103

Gilbert Arenas
Games: 21
PER: 14.1
Simple: -3.4
Offensive Rating: 98
Defensive Rating: 112

While it's not necessarily an apples to apples comparison, Arenas has a better PER and a better Simple Rating than Lewis.  The advantage goes the other way when it comes to Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating.  The important point about the Offensive and Defensive Ratings is that they are more heavily influenced by the team around the player.  So in a very simple evaluation of who has been the more productive player so far in 2010, the needle leans from even to slight advantage Arenas.

Now, for the six players involved in the Magic-Suns trade:

Vince Carter
Games: 22
PER: 16.7
Simple: +8.5
Offensive Rating: 111
Defensive Rating: 102

Marcin Gortat
Games: 25
PER: 14.1
Simple: -1.6
Offensive Rating: 114
Defensive Rating: 98

Mickael Pietrus
Games: 19
PER: 8.6
Simple: -4.9
Offensive Rating: 103
Defensive Rating: 103

Jason Richardson
Games: 25
PER: 19.6
Simple: +1.7
Offensive Rating: 115
Defensive Rating: 114

Hedo Turkoglu
Games: 25
PER: 13.4
Simple: -4.2
Offensive Rating: 112
Defensive Rating: 113

Earl Clark
Games: 9
PER: 11.6
Simple: -1.5
Offensive Rating: 92
Defensive Rating: 112

Carter and Richardson are as close to a direct match as we'll get.  Richardson has a nearly three point advantage on Carter in PER but Carter makes that up with a nearly seven point advantage in the Simple Rating.  Richardson has a slight advantage in Offensive Rating while Carter has a larger advantage in Defensive Rating.  By numbers only this is pretty close to a push.

It's harder to compare the other four players because they are not really close to matches.  But if you take their raw stats, Gortat has the advantage over Turkoglu, while the Pietrus-Clark comparison is basically a push.

Now let's take a look at how each team will be specifically affected on the floor.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are just glad to have been able to dump the contract of Arenas.  Beyond that Lewis should fit in nicely at the small forward position alongside John Wall, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee.  He'll be challenged to guard the quicker threes in the NBA but his ability to stroke it from behind the arc (36.7% this season and 39.1% for his career) will be a nice addition to a team that is currently 28th in three-point shooting.

Phoenix Suns

This is a very interesting trade for the Suns from an on-the-court perspective.  When I recently analyzed the Suns first quarter of the season, it was their challenges with defense that really stuck out.  They have now shed two of their three worst defenders by opponent's PER (Richardson and Turkoglu) and replaced them with two perimeter players with respectable defensive skills (Carter and Pietrus), while adding a low post player that they desperately needed to help Robin Lopez and Channing Frye on the block.  Carter also gives them another player who can create his own shot while Pietrus could be deadly from three-point range playing off Steve Nash, if he's in the rotation.

Gortat's rebounding skill should also greatly help Phoenix.  The Suns are currently 28th in the NBA in defensive rebounding rate, pulling down only 69.8% of all defensive rebounds available to them.  Gortat is grabbing 23.5% of all defensive rebounds available to him, a number that places him 17th in the NBA among centers and first among the Suns.

Orlando Magic

The Magic are placing all of their chips in the middle of the table and playing for keeps.  To really analyze the effect of these trades you have to look at how the Magic rotation will change.  In essence they are swapping:

• Richardson for Carter at the starting two guard
• Turkoglu for Quentin Richardson as their starting small forward
• Brandon Bass for Lewis as the starter at power forward
• Arenas for Chris Duhon as the backup point guard
• Q. Richardson for Pietrus as a backup swing man
• Ryan Anderson for Bass as the backup four
• Bass for Gortat as the backup center

From a strict numbers analysis the J. Richardson for Carter swap is a push, but from the standpoint of how the Magic like to play I think Richardson will fit in very nicely, in large part because of his 41.9% three-point shooting compared to Carter's 34.6%.

Quentin Richardson's numbers are 10.8 PER, -1.2 Simple, 105 Offensive Rating and 102 Defensive Rating.  So again, when compared to Turkoglu in numbers only it is close to even.  But, Turkoglu's ability to create off the dribble can be a huge asset for Orlando and Richardson is probably better playing the backup wing spot that Pietrus manned.  Q is definitely an upgrade in that position for the Magic.

The numbers for Bass are outstanding - 18.2 PER, +8.9 Simple, 112 Offensive Rating and 103 Defensive Rating.  He's a much more productive player at the four than Lewis.  His minutes as the backup to Dwight Howard should be at least equal in productivity to those turned in by Gortat, if not better.

Duhon has struggled in Orlando.  His numbers look like this - 6.3 PER, -5.8 Simple, 90 Offensive Rating and 106 Defensive Rating.  Arenas is a huge improvement and obviously, if he can recapture some of the deadliness of his past, he'll be a great asset.  The question will be whether he will be willing to embrace a smaller role in Orlando.

Anderson has played limited minutes so far this season.  He should be able to provide the three point threat at the power forward position that Lewis has been in good times.

Conclusion
I think these two trades will end up benefitting all three teams.  The Suns have added some defense and rebounding, which they critically needed.  The Magic have added some pieces that raise the ceiling of their team potential to a higher level.  Will it be enough to make them better than the Celtics and Heat?

What are your thoughts on these deals?

Utah Jazz Off to Strong 18-8 Start

Utah started the 2010-11 NBA season by stumbling out of the gates.  They lost three of their first five games.  Then the Jazz beat the Clippers in overtime and tore through the Southeast Division, beating the Heat, Magic, Hawks and Bobcats on the road.  Since then they've been mostly steady, although they've lost at home four times in that stretch of 16 games.

What do the stats tell us about the Jazz in the first 26 games?  Let's take a look.

But before we do, I projected that the Jazz would finish the season with a 49-33 record.

Photo source: Argyleist

Team Stats

Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 110.1 (7th in the NBA) [110.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 105.7 (12th) [105.0 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 4.4 [5.7 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.3 (10th) [104.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 97.3 (13th) [98.9 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 90.9 (22nd) [93.8 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Deron Williams
Offensive Rating: 120 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 108 (107)
PER: 24.9 (20.6)

Al Jefferson
Offensive Rating: 108 (106)
Defensive Rating: 104 (108)
PER: 17.3 (19.0)

Paul Millsap
Offensive Rating: 120 (113)
Defensive Rating: 103 (103)
PER: 21.4 (16.7)

Andrei Kirilenko
Offensive Rating: 110 (117)
Defensive Rating: 106 (103)
PER: 15.1 (18.2)

Raja Bell
Offensive Rating: 107 (116)
Defensive Rating: 109 (107)
PER: 9.1 (13.8)

C.J. Miles
Offensive Rating: 103 (100)
Defensive Rating: 106 (107)
PER: 15.5 (10.8)

Earl Watson
Offensive Rating: 100 (100)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 10.6 (10.9)

Ronnie Price
Offensive Rating: 90 (98)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 7.6 (10.3)

Francisco Elson
Offensive Rating: 109 (90)
Defensive Rating: 105 (107)
PER: 11.1 (5.5)

Gordon Hayward
Offensive Rating: 80 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 110
PER: 2.5

Kyrylo Fesenko
Offensive Rating: 94 (100)
Defensive Rating: 106 (105)
PER: 6.4 (9.7)

The most interesting thing about the team statistics for the Jazz is the difference in their pace.  They are averaging nearly three fewer possessions per game so far this season when compared to 2009-10.  As a team they shot spectacularly last year - 49.0%, tied for first in the NBA.  They've dropped some in 2010 to 46.9% but that's still good for sixth in the NBA.  Much of that drop off can be attributed to three-point shooting where they are at 34.4%, down from 36.5% last season.  Another area where Utah is lagging from last season is defensive rebounds.  In 2009-10 the Jazz pulled down 75.1% of all the rebounds available to them when they were on defense.  Through the first 26 games of this season they are only grabbing 69.9% of those boards, 26th in the NBA.  On the positive side - they are second in both assists per game and turnovers per game.

There's no doubt that Williams is Utah's leader.  He's having the most effective season of his career and currently ranks fifth in the NBA in PER.  He's scoring more per 36 minutes (21.7) than he ever has while also posting the highest True Shooting Percentage of his career.

Jefferson is still adjusting to Utah after coming over in a trade from Minnesota.  His PER is down 1.7 points and he's shooting a career worst 46.9%.  He's also averaging a career worst 8.8 rebounds per 36 minutes.  Positively, he's averaging a career best 1.2 turnovers per 36 minutes.

He's always been a productive player, but Millsap has been even more effective this season, posting a career high 21.4 PER.  He's shooting better than he ever has from the field (55.0%) and free throw line (72.5%).  Like Jefferson though, he is averaging a career low in rebounds per 36 minutes (8.2).

After an outstanding 2009-10 (he finished third in my NBA Small Forward Rankings), Kirilenko has fallen off through the first 26 games.  His PER is down 3.1 points to 15.1.  He's shooting a career high 40.0% from behind the arc but a career low 43.7% overall.  He's averaging career lows in steals (1.2) and blocks (1.3) per 36 minutes and a near career low in rebounds (5.6).

Utah liked Bell for his defense and three-point shooting.  But after a career high PER in 2009-10 he's putting up his lowest PER in eight years.  Impressively, coming into this season Bell had shot better than 40% from behind the arc in seven of the last eight seasons.  He's shooting just 36.2% through 26 games. 

The story with Miles is nearly the opposite of Bell's.  He's bounced back from a bad 2009-10 and improved his PER by 4.7 points to 15.5.  He still has a negative rating differential but has contributed in all areas of statistically.

Beyond Miles the Jazz have been playing a lot of guys off the bench.  The reason so many guys are getting time is probably because none of them has been very effective.  With a PER of 11.1, Elson has been the most productive.  He's shooting a career best 53.2% from the field.  Watson is giving Utah nearly exactly what they should have expected as most of his numbers are right around his career averages.  Price has a career low 7.6 PER.  His assist rate is way down but his steal rate is up.  Fesenko has been their best rebounder.  Hayward is struggling to find his NBA game. 

The Jazz currently have a 69.2 winning percentage, which if maintainted will be their best in more than 10 seasons.  They have been very successful in the first quarter of the season without Mehmet Okur touching the floor.  His return should help improve Utah's ability to hit the three but it won't give a big boost to their rebounding.  Those are the two areas the Jazz need to reinforce in order to make a strong playoff run.  They would also be helped a great deal by Kirilenko returning to his highly productive form of last season.

What are your thoughts on the Jazz through 26 games?  Post a comment below and let's discuss.

San Antonio Spurs at the Quarter Pole

The Spurs have started the 2010-11 NBA season with a franchise record 20 wins in 23 games.  With their spectacular win-loss record, San Antonio has been an early season NBA surprise.  They currently have the best record in the NBA, with impressive road victories at Oklahoma City, Utah and New Orleans, and solid home wins over Chicago, Orlando and Atlanta.

What's been the key to the Spurs hot start?  Let's take a look at the statistics and see what they tell us.

But before we do, I predicted San Antonio would finish the season at 52-30.

Photo source: WDPG share

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 113.0 (2nd in the NBA) [110.0 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 102.4 (8th) [104.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.6 [5.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.4 (4th) [101.4 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 96.5 (9th) [96.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 93.3 (12th) [91.7 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Tony Parker
Offensive Rating: 113 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 104 (108)
PER: 20.4 (16.4)

Manu Ginobili
Offensive Rating: 120 (118)
Defensive Rating: 102 (104)
PER: 24.0 (22.5)

Richard Jefferson
Offensive Rating: 126 (110)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 16.7 (13.1)

Tim Duncan
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 98 (101)
PER: 21.6 (24.7)

George Hill
Offensive Rating: 120 (115)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 16.6 (14.7)

DeJuan Blair
Offensive Rating: 103 (108)
Defensive Rating: 97 (101)
PER: 16.0 (17.7)

Antonio McDyess
Offensive Rating: 100 (103)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 11.3 (12.2)

Gary Neal
Offensive Rating: 106 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 105
PER: 12.3

Matt Bonner
Offensive Rating: 126 (117)
Defensive Rating: 105 (104)
PER: 13.1 (14.9)

Tiago Splitter
Offensive Rating: 113 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103
PER: 14.9

The Spurs have improved impressively on both offense and defense.  Their Offensive Rating is up three points from last season to 113.0, which is the second best mark in the NBA.  Their Defensive Rating is 2.1 points better and stands at 102.4, which is good enough for eighth in the NBA.  One of the biggest differences offensively is their three point shooting.  They are knocking down a league-leading 41.4% of their shots behind the arc, a significant improvement over the 35.6% they hit in 2009-10.  On defense they are second in the NBA in steals per game at 9.1.  That's a nice jump from their 6.3 average last season.

After a subpar (for him) 2009-2010, Parker's numbers are back up to the level of his career norms.  He's shooting a solid 51.3% and he's averaging more assists (7.6) and steals (1.8) per 36 minutes than he has in any other season in his career.  Maybe it was Eva.

Ginobili was my top-rated shooting guard in 2009-10.  He's following that up with an even better season.  Right now his PER, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating are better than those of 2009-10.  He's putting up excellent numbers across the board and his True Shooting Percentage is at a career high.

Duncan currently has the lowest PER of his career (21.6), but it's a number that 95% of the NBA would love to say was theirs.  At 48.4% his shooting is near a career low but he's also averaging more assists (4.1) and steals (1.0) per 36 minutes than he has in his career.  A stat that may turn out to really pay off come playoff time - he's averaging a career low 28.8 minutes per game.

What a difference a year makes for Jefferson.  After never truly fitting in last season, he's been much more like the player San Antonio was hoping for when they made the trade for him.  He's shooting a spectacular 46.3% on threes.  He's not exactly filling the stat sheet otherwise, but he is averaging a career best one turnover per game.

The career arc of George Hill continues to rise.  He really broke out last season and he's playing even better in 2010.  He's shooting 40.4% from behind the arc and 86.9% from the free throw line.

Blair has started all 23 games in his second season but his numbers have fallen off a bit.  His shooting has dropped from 55.6% in 2009-10 to 46.3% this season.  On the positive side, he's doubled his average steals per 36 minutes to 2.4.

The Spurs have gotten mixed results off the bench.  The productivity of McDyess continues to decline rapidly.  He's at a career worst 11.3 PER and 44.0% shooting.  Neal is contributing much more than expected as a rookie.  He's shooting an excellent 41.3% from three-point range.  Bonner is knocking down a ridiculous 50.8% of his threes.  Splitter has not had the impact that some had expected but his 14.9 PER is certainly respectable.

It's not likely that San Antonio will be able to sustain their hot three-point shooting at the level they are now.  But the good news for the Spurs - they can absolutely find other ways to get the ball in the basket.  Parker, Ginobili and Duncan can all find ways to score.  The most important thing the Spurs need to continue doing is clamping down and playing tight team defense.  That will be the key to how far they can go in the playoffs.

What are your observations on the Spurs' hot start?  Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Phoenix Suns at the Quarter Pole

After losing Amare Stoudemire and adding a number of interesting parts, we didn't know what to expect from the Suns. So far they've been up and down. They have really good wins on the road at Utah, Atlanta and Los Angeles (over the Lakers). Their two worst losses are at Charlotte and home against Memphis. To their defense, Phoenix has played the seventh most difficult schedule in the NBA.

But ultimately if they hope to make the playoffs the Suns have to start winning more games. They are currently 11-12 and one game out of the eighth spot in the Western Conference Playoffs. As competitive as the West is, it's hard to see a .500 team getting in. Before the season I predicted the Suns would be left out of the playoffs with a 48-34 record.

So what's worked for Phoenix and where do they need help?  Let's take a look at the statistics to see what they tell us.

Photo source: Ms. Phoenix

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.9 (3rd in the NBA) [115.3 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 113.4 (30th) [110.2 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -1.5 [5.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 108.1 (1st) [110.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 109.5 (30th) [105.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.5 (8th) [95.3 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Jason Richardson
Offensive Rating: 116 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 114 (111)
PER: 19.7 (16.6)

Channing Frye
Offensive Rating: 115 (120)
Defensive Rating: 111 (108)
PER: 12.7 (15.0)

Steve Nash
Offensive Rating: 120 (121)
Defensive Rating: 116 (114)
PER: 23.7 (21.6)

Grant Hill
Offensive Rating: 119 (114)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110)
PER: 18.0 (14.0)

Hedo Turkoglu
Offensive Rating: 112 (109)
Defensive Rating: 113 (113)
PER: 13.4 (13.3)

Hakim Warrick
Offensive Rating: 124 (110)
Defensive Rating: 115 (106)
PER: 19.1 (15.6)

Jared Dudley
Offensive Rating: 108 (124)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 12.2 (13.6)

Goran Dragic
Offensive Rating: 93 (110)
Defensive Rating: 113 (112)
PER: 12.7 (14.8)

Josh Childress
Offensive Rating: 117 (127 in 2007-08)
Defensive Rating: 114 (110 in 2007-08)
PER: 14.1 (17.8)

Robin Lopez
Offensive Rating: 100 (123)
Defensive Rating: 113 (110)
PER: 11.2 (17.6)

When looking at the team statistics you quickly notice that the Suns are not as good offensively as they were last year and have struggled mightily on defense.  Their 111.9 points per 100 possessions is excellent, but is 3.4 points lower than 2009-10.  That would be okay if their defense was solid, but it's not.  Phoenix is dead last in Defensive Rating, allowing 113.4 points per 100 possessions.  A big problem is that they are last in the league in opponent field goal percentage defense.  They are allowing opponents to make 42.2% of their shots.  That is three percentage points worse than last season.  The problem is most apparent in the paint where the Suns are allowing opponents to score 48.6 points per game, most in the NBA.

The Phoenix Suns and Steve Nash are basically synonomous at this point.  And Nash is bringing it again in his 15th year.  His PER is currently above what it was in his two MVP seasons.  Most of his numbers are within reach of career highs.  For the most part he hasn't dropped off a bit.  The only exception is three-point shooting.  Right now he's at a career-worst 32.7%.  Also, in a common trend among the Suns, his Defensive Rating has fallen to a career worst.

Richardson has definitely embraced the Suns fast-paced offense.  He's having the best season of his career by PER.  At 44.0% he's shooting better behind the arc than he ever has.  His turnover rate is at a career low.  The only negative is that, like Nash, his Defensive Rating is the worst it's been in his career.  That includes his go-go years in Golden State.

With Lopez hurt, Frye is logging more minutes per game than he has before in his career.  His level of productivity seems to alternate every year and so far in 2010 he's on the down side.  His rebounds and assists per 36 minutes are both at career lows.  His three-point shooting has dropped from 43.9% last season to 38.6% so far in 2010.  On the good side, he's averaging a career high in blocks per 36 minutes.

Hill has been tremendous and is having his most productive season in five years.  Much of that stems from a career high field goal percentage of 53.6.  His turnover rate is currently the lowest it's been in any one season in his career.  But, like the others, he's posting the worst Defensive Rating of his career.

Phoenix picked up Turkoglu, Warrick and Childress with the hopes that they would make up for the loss of Stoudemire.  Turkoglu has played the most and been the least productive.  His performance has only been slightly better than his bad year last season in Toronto.  On a positive note he is shooting a career best 42.4% on threes.  Warrick is having the most productive year of his career.  That's mostly due to his 55.5% shooting, which is up 7.3% from 2009-10.  Childress has yet to find the form he had three years ago before leaving for Europe.  One thing that hasn't changed is his solid shooting.  He's at 57.0% from the field.

After a season in which they were solid contributors off the bench, both Dudley and Dragic are struggling in 2010.  For Dudley it's three-point shooting that's dragging him down.  He's at 31.1% this season after knocking down 45.8% in 2009-10.  Dragic has been cold from behind the arc as well (30.2%) and has also had a bit of a turnover problem.  He's averaging nearly two more per 36 minutes than he did last season.

Lopez showed a lot of promise last year while starting 31 games and posting a 17.6 PER.  A knee injury has limited him to only nine games and when he's been on the floor he's had trouble putting the ball in the hoop.  His field goal shooting has plummeted to 44.0% from 58.8% last season.

Nobody on the Suns is immune from defensive issues.  Every rotation player is posting the worst Defensive Rating of their career.  Clearly the team defense needs to be improved if Phoenix hopes to make the playoffs.  It would also help if they can get the rotation settled and have the dynamic bench impact that they've had in recent years.

Why do you think the Suns have been so bad defensively this year?  What can they do to make a run for the playoffs?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Andre Miller Body Blasts Blake Griffin

This is a great video. I love the fact that there was no foul called but Miller was later suspended for a game.

Orlando Magic at the Quarter Pole

Despite being plagued by a stomach virus that has played some part in them losing their last two games, the Orlando Magic have gotten off to an excellent 15-6 start.  Excluding those last two games, their only bad loss was to Toronto in mid-November.  They avenged a blowout loss to Miami in their second game by beating the Heat in Orlando on Thanksgiving Eve.

What have the Magic been doing well and where are their opportunities for improvement?  Let's take a look at some of the numbers and find out.

But first, I predicted Orlando would finish the 2010-11 season at 59-23.

Photo source: Jeff Kern

Team Stats

Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 107.0 (13th in the NBA) [111.4 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 99.7 (1st) [103.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 7.3 [8.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 97.4 (20th) [102.8 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 90.8 (1st) [95.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.1 (19th) [92.0 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Rashard Lewis
Offensive Rating: 103 (111 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 101 (104)
PER: 11.6 (14.0)

Dwight Howard
Offensive Rating: 107 (113)
Defensive Rating: 92 (95)
PER: 24.2 (24.0)

Vince Carter
Offensive Rating: 110 (112)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 17.2 (17.1)

Quentin Richardson
Offensive Rating: 110 (114)
Defensive Rating: 101 (104)
PER: 12.3 (12.9)

Jameer Nelson
Offensive Rating: 117 (110)
Defensive Rating: 102 (106)
PER: 20.1 (15.5)

Brandon Bass
Offensive Rating: 119 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 20.3 (16.5)

Chris Duhon
Offensive Rating: 88 (107)
Defensive Rating: 104 (114)
PER: 5.6 (10.7)

Mickael Pietrus
Offensive Rating: 106 (106)
Defensive Rating: 101 (104)
PER: 9.6 (11.9)

J.J. Redick
Offensive Rating: 109 (123)
Defensive Rating: 103 (108)
PER: 10.3 (15.0)

Marcin Gortat
Offensive Rating: 118 (113)
Defensive Rating: 97 (99)
PER: 15.0 (13.9)

The Magic have really turned up the defense in 2010.  After finishing fourth in the NBA last season in Defensive Rating and allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions, Orlando is now first in the NBA, allowing only 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Every player in their rotation has improved their Defensive Rating.  The stingier defense has made up for a drop in efficiency on the other side of the floor.  The Magic are currently averaging 4.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last season.

Any discussion about the Magic players has to start with Howard.  He's taken his Defensive Rating down to a ridiculous, and league-leading, 92.  That's from a tremendous 95 in 2009/10.  His 24.2 PER is good for eighth in the NBA.  All of his stats are in line with his recent numbers.  The bottom line - he's playing as well as he ever has.

Surprisingly, Lewis has played more minutes than anyone else on the Magic.  In reality, he'd be behind Howard if not for the stomach bug.  And don't assume Lewis is putting in productive minutes because he really is not.  His PER continues to plummet and is at 11.6 through 21 games, the worst mark since his rookie season and a good bit below the NBA average of 15.0.  While his three-point shooting is a respectable 37.6%, that is still his worst performance behind the arc in seven years.  His overall shooting percentage is down, as are his assist rate, steal rate and rebounds per 36 minutes.

When he's been on the floor Nelson has been excellent.  He's bounced back nicely from a subpar 2009-10, improving his PER from 15.5 to 20.1.  His assists per 36 minutes are up to 8.5 from 6.8 last season.  His shooting touch has also come back.  He's currently knocking down 49.2% of all of his shots and 40.7% of his threes.  The only negative is that he's averaging almost half a turnover more per 36 minutes.

Carter doesn't seem to like to bring his game to the playoffs but his regular season production level has been respectable.  He's keeping it up this year by matching his PER from last season.  He's improved his field-goal shooting but he's turning the ball over at a higher rate than he ever has.

Brought in for his three-point shooting, Richardson hasn't quite delivered at the level Orlando was hoping for.  He's currently shooting 34.5% from downtown compared to 39.7% last season.  Otherwise his PER is right about at the expected level.

Bass has been extremely productive off the bench and has the second highest PER on the team.  This is the fourth year in a row he has improved his PER.  He's shooting a career best 52.3% and is averaging 8.5 rebounds per 36 minutes.

Orlando's backcourt reserves have been disappointing.  Duhon has cut a poor 2009-10 PER in half for a terrible, career low PER so far this season.  Per 36 minutes he's averaging the fewest assists and most turnovers in his career.  Fellow Dukie Redick has failed to carry the momentum from a solid 2009-10 into this season.  He's shooting a putrid 28.6% from three point range.  Pietrus is an interesting case.  He's putting up a career worst 9.5 PER but is shooting a career best 42.9% behind the arc.

Overall, it's been excellent defense that has propelled the Magic to a very good 15-6 record.  To continue to win games they are going to need Nelson to stay healthy and for somebody to step up their offensive game.  That may mean Howard delivering massively in the post or more consistent three point shooting from the wings and Lewis. Or perhaps it will be a new piece if Orlando makes a big trade.  That may be the only way the final results of the season will change.  Because otherwise they are basically a lesser version of last year's team that lost in the Eastern Conference Finals and I'm not confident that any one of their players is playing at a level that so far exceeds where they were then that they will drive the team to victory.

What are your thoughts on Orlando's first 21 games?  Are they good enough to make it to the NBA Finals?  Post a comment below and share your views.

Dallas Mavericks at the Quarter Pole

At 16-4 the Mavericks are second to only the division rival Spurs in the Western Conference and NBA standings.  They've been as impressive as anybody and have currently won nine in a row.  Interestingly, three of their four losses have been at home.  They are 8-1 on the road with the only loss coming in New Orleans.  They've won at Atlanta, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Utah.

Clearly Dallas has been one of the better teams in the NBA through the first quarter of the season.  Let's take a deeper look at the statistics and see what else we can learn about the Mavs.

But first, I predicted Dallas would finish the season at 53-29.

Photo source: dherrera_96

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 108.2 (12th in the NBA) [109.2 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 101.8 (5th) [106.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 6.4 [2.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 98.0 (19th) [102.0 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 92.2 (3rd) [99.3 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 90.6 (25th) [92.5 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Dirk Nowitzki
Offensive Rating: 117 (116 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 24.6 (22.9)

Jason Kidd
Offensive Rating: 109 (115)
Defensive Rating: 102 (105)
PER: 15.4 (17.2)

Jason Terry
Offensive Rating: 109 (112)
Defensive Rating: 103 (109)
PER: 18.0 (16.5)

Tyson Chandler
Offensive Rating: 138 (107)
Defensive Rating: 97 (102)
PER: 18.7 (12.5)

Shawn Marion
Offensive Rating: 104 (107)
Defensive Rating: 101 (106)
PER: 15.5 (14.7)

Caron Butler
Offensive Rating: 97 (101)
Defensive Rating: 102 (108)
PER: 13.0 (13.7)

Jose Barea
Offensive Rating: 96 (104)
Defensive Rating: 105 (110)
PER: 11.2 (12.8)

Brendan Haywood
Offensive Rating: 102 (117)
Defensive Rating: 100 (106)
PER: 10.0 (16.1)

DeShawn Stevenson
Offensive Rating: 126 (83)
Defensive Rating: 105 (112)
PER: 14.2 (3.3)

Would you believe that the Mavericks are doing it with defense?  A team that has lived in the freewheeling, faster-paced "offense can always beat the defense" mindset has found a great deal of success in focusing on defense.  They've improved their Defensive Rating a tremendous 4.5 points and are now ranked fifth in the NBA.  They've slowed their pace by nearly two possessions per game but are still almost as efficient on offense as last season.  And they've improved their rating differential from 2.9 in 2009-10 to 6.4.

As they have been for quite some time now, the Mavs are led by Nowitzki.  His 24.6 PER ranks him eighth in the NBA.  He's shooting 55.3% overall, his best percentage by a wide margin, and continues to contribute in every area of the game.

Kidd currently has the lowest PER since his rookie season 16 years ago.  His field goal shooting is lower than it's ever been in his career but his 35.7% mark behind the arc is still above his career number.  Also on the positive side, he's averaging more assists per 36 minutes of play than he has in all but one of his 17 seasons.

The stronger focus on defense certainly shows in Terry's numbers.  He's putting up the best Defensive Rating of his career and is averaging more steals per 36 minutes than he ever has.  He's also providing the Mavericks a dependable spark off the bench.

Chandler has been a fantastic addition.  His 138 Offensive Rating is tops in the NBA and his 97 Defensive Rating is also excellent.  His PER is higher than it's ever been.  His shooting percentage from the field and the free throw line are at career highs.  Most importantly, he's been able to stay healthy, playing in all 20 games. 

Formerly known as the Matrix, Marion is not the player he used to be.  He's still serviceable though and has improved his PER slightly from a career low last season.  He's an awful three-point shooter but his overall field-goal percentage hovers around 50.  It is concerning that his turnover rate is at a career worst.

For the third year in a row Butler's production is dropping.  His PER is now at a dangerously low 13.0, well below the league average of 15.0.  He's still living off the reputation he earned three and four years ago in Washington but he is nowhere near as effective.

Barea gets too many minutes for a guy who's never had a positive differential and whose PER is a poor 11.2.  His three-point shooting has fallen off a cliff this year and currently stands at 15.9%.

After a solidly productive 2009-10, Haywood is having the worst year of his career.  He's shooting very well from the field but everything else is way down.

Stevenson's shooting has kept him in the rotation, in fact he's started 15 of the 17 games he's played despite a PER that ranks him as below average.  Knocking down 51.1% of your three point shots will always keep you in the game.

Looking at the individual stats further makes the case that defense is the key to the Mavericks' hot start.  All nine players in the rotation have improved their Defensive Rating from last year.  Chandler has given Dallas a big boost on the defensive end and his excellent production levels are making up for Haywood's drop off. 

If the Mavericks can continue to excel on defense they will be tough to beat.  Their problem may be that when they get in a playoff series with a team with a lot of offensive weapons they may not have the firepower to keep up.

What are your thoughts on the Mavericks through the first 20 games of the year?  Post a comment below and let me know.

Los Angeles Lakers at the Quarter Pole

The Lakers started the season looking unbeatable and winning their first eight.  Then Denver and Phoenix beat them consecutively.  But L.A. responded to those two losses with five victories in a row.  Shockingly though, they would follow the winning streak with a four game losing streak including losses to the likes of Indiana, Houston and Memphis.

So the Lakers stand at 14-6.  Considering their start, the record is disappointing.  Even more so when you consider they are 14-6 against the second weakest schedule in the NBA by opponents' winning percentage.

Let's take a look at what the statistics tell us.  But first, I projected the Lakers to finish the season at 54-28.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 115.2 (1st in the NBA) [108.8 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 105.8 (12th) [103.7 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 9.4 [5.1 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 108.5 (2nd) [101.7 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 99.6 (16th) [97.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.1 (9th) [92.8 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Pau Gasol
Offensive Rating: 127 (120 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 103 (102)
PER: 24.7 (22.9)

Photo source: bridgetds

Lamar Odom
Offensive Rating: 122 (109)
Defensive Rating: 104 (100)
PER: 19.9 (15.9)

Kobe Bryant
Offensive Rating: 112 (109)
Defensive Rating: 107 (104)
PER: 24.7 (21.9)

Ron Artest
Offensive Rating: 107 (106)
Defensive Rating: 107 (105)
PER: 11.5 (12.1)

Derek Fisher
Offensive Rating: 112 (105)
Defensive Rating: 108 (106)
PER: 10.5 (9.3)

Matt Barnes
Offensive Rating: 121 (111)
Defensive Rating: 105 (103)
PER: 17.7 (13.6)

Shannon Brown
Offensive Rating: 122 (105)
Defensive Rating: 105 (105)
PER: 20.4 (12.4)

Steve Blake
Offensive Rating: 111 (108)
Defensive Rating: 110 (111)
PER: 10.3 (11.6)

As a team the Lakers have a spectacular Offensive Rating.  They are averaging 115.2 points per 100 possessions, good for first in the NBA and 6.4 points more than they averaged per 100 possessions in 2009-10.  And as you would expect, without Andrew Bynum their Defensive Rating has fallen, from 103.7 last season to 105.8 through the first 20 games.  But overall their differential has improved from 5.1 to 9.4.  That's tremendous.

He may be third in minutes played but the Lakers fortunes clearly rest on Kobe's shoulders.  And in reality the fact that he's averaging only 33.1 minutes per game, the lowest since his second year in the NBA, is a very good sign.  When it comes to effectiveness, Kobe's PER is the highest it's been in four years.  His shooting has fallen slightly from last year but when you look at his stats per 36 minutes his rebounds and assists are both up and he's getting to the charity stripe at a rate that matches his career high.

Gasol has been nothing short of spectacular so far in 2010.  He's posting a career high 24.7 PER and career bests in rebounds per game (11.6), free-throw shooting (82.6%) and turnover rate.  The only concern for Gasol is that he's averaging the second highest minutes per game of his career (38.7).  After all the games he's played through three straight NBA Finals runs that's not a good idea.

After a subpar season, Odom is currently on pace to put up the most productive year of his career.  His 19.9 PER is a nice four point jump from 2009-10.  His Offensive Rating is the highest it's ever been.  At 57.9% overall and 45.5% from behind the arc he's shooting better than ever before.

It appears that Artest is continuing to slide.  His PER has dropped for the third consecutive year and is quite a bit below the NBA average of 15.0.  Maybe more concerning, he also has the second worst Defensive Rating of his career.  His shooting percentage, rebound rate and assist percentage are all the lowest they've ever been.

To make up for Artest's poor productivity, the Lakers are getting stellar contributions from their wings off the bench.  Both Barnes and Brown are putting up the best PER and Offensive Rating of their careers.  Barnes is shooting better than he ever has from behind the arc (39.6%) and from the free throw line (80.5%) while also grabbing a higher percentage of the rebounds available to him than he ever has (13.3%).  Brown has also been outstanding from three point range (43.1%) while raising the level of every other piece of his game.

When looking at pure production, point guard has been another story.  Fisher has a PER of 10.5 and Blake 10.3.  But both are doing what the L.A. offense asks of them - hitting threes.  Fisher is shooting nearly two a game and making 47.4% while Blake is shooting nearly three and a half a game and putting 47.7% through the hoop.

From a numbers standpoint the Lakers have been superb, both as a team and individually.  And when you take a closer look at the margins in the games they've lost you see they are quite small.  Should they be worried?  I say no.  Bynum's return should help them quite a bit defensively.  They will also be a better team overall with him in the mix.  Considering what the numbers say about them now, it should be the rest of the NBA that's worried.

What are your thoughts on what you've seen so far from the Lakers?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Oklahoma City Thunder at the Quarter Pole

Photo source: Yzukerman

Much was expected of the Thunder coming into this season.  Many NBA experts were throwing around Oklahoma City's name as a team that could challenge the Lakers in the Western Conference. 

After some early season struggles (they started 3-3) the Thunder have gotten back to their winnning ways.  However, unlike 2009-2010 when they were incredibly healthy, they have been bitten by the injury bug this season.  Kevin Durant has already missed four of their 20 games while Jeff Green has missed seven.

What's working and what's not for OKC?  Let's take a look at the statistics.  But first, I predicted the Thunder would finish the season at 54-28.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 108.3 (12th in the NBA) [108.3 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 108.6 (20th) [104.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -0.3 [3.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 103.1 (7th) [101.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 103.3 (22nd) [98.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 92.8 (15th) [93.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Russell Westbrook
Offensive Rating: 112 (105)
Defensive Rating: 107 (106)
PER: 26.1 (17.8)

Kevin Durant
Offensive Rating: 105 (118)
Defensive Rating: 108 (104)
PER: 20.7 (26.2)

Thabo Sefolosha
Offensive Rating: 112 (103)
Defensive Rating: 107 (104)
PER: 10.6 (9.8)

Serge Ibaka
Offensive Rating: 125 (109)
Defensive Rating: 106 (101)
PER: 18.5 (15.2)

Jeff Green
Offensive Rating: 115 (106)
Defensive Rating: 111 (105)
PER: 16.0 (13.8)

James Harden
Offensive Rating: 106 (109)
Defensive Rating: 109 (104)
PER: 11.5 (14.0)

Nenad Krstic
Offensive Rating: 101 (111)
Defensive Rating: 111 (106)
PER: 10.0 (13.7)

Eric Maynor
Offensive Rating: 110 (103)
Defensive Rating: 110 (107)
PER: 14.6 (11.8)

Nick Collison
Offensive Rating: 107 (120)
Defensive Rating: 111 (105)
PER: 9.1 (13.1)

The thing that immediately jumps out when you look at OKC's team stats is their Defensive Rating.  It's going in the wrong direction, up four points to 108.6.  They are allowing their opponents to make 39.1% of their shots.  That number is fifth worst in the NBA.  Last season they were tied with the 10th best mark at 36.6%.  They are specifically bad at defending the three, allowing their opponents to shoot 39.0% behind the arc, which is fourth worst in the NBA.  Their 34.0% mark last year was tied for third best.

Looking at the players, Westbrook has exploded this year.  He's currently ranked 2nd in the NBA in PER, just behind Chris Paul.  He's also got a positive rating differential for the first time in his three year career.  When Durant has been out, much of the responsibility for carrying the Thunder has fallen on Westbrook and he has responded.  All of his stats have shown gains over last season.  Most importantly, his shooting has improved from 41.8% to 44.7%. 

After being as healthy as possible last season, Durant has been hampered by injuries in 2010.  It's only caused him to miss four games but has clearly affected him in others.  While still tremendous, his 20.7 PER is down 5.5 points.  For the first time since his rookie season, he's working with a negative rating differential (-3).  His field-goal shooting is down from 47.6% in 2009/10 to 41.9% and his three-point shooting has fallen a ghastly 9.8% to 26.7%.

The quick ascension of Ibaka has been impressive.  In only his second year, the hidden gem is putting up an impressive 18.5 PER.  He's making more than 56% of his shots and leads the team with 2.2 blocks per game.  He also has the best Defensive Rating of the rotation players.

After a shockingly ineffective 2009/10, Green has been much more productive while playing in 13 of the first 20 games of this season.  He's at the highest PER of his career, 16.0.  For the third year in a row he has raised his Offensive Rating, it's currently the second best on the team.  He's shooting a career best 82.6% from the free throw line and has decreased his turnovers despite playing more minute per game.  Now if he can only stay healthy.

Known as a defensive player, Sefolosha has the highest Offensive Rating of his career.  It is also the first time his differential has been in positive territory.  However, he's still not producing a lot, as his 10.6 PER is way below the league average of 15.0.

Harden has taken a step back after a solid rookie season.  His PER is down 2.5 points.  He's not shooting as well, only 36.5% on field goals compared to 40.3% in 2009/10, and it is affecting his confidence.

After contributing steadily last season, both Krstic and Collison have seen substantial dropoffs.  In Collison's case it may be due to his continued recovery from serious knee issues.

Unlike Harden, Maynor has shown steady improvement in his second year.  He's shooting much better and has cut his turnover rate.

While they have not taken the next big step, Oklahoma City has carried their level of solid play over from the end of last season.  They do need to shore up the defense and to hope that injuries do not continue to be part of their 2010/11 story.  If Durant can come close to his massive production numbers last season, Harden can find his shooting stroke and Westbrook, Ibaka and Green can match their early effectiveness, this team may very well challenge the Lakers. 

What are your thoughts on the Thunder 20 games into the season?  Are they playing the way you thought they would?  Post a comment below and let's discuss.

Denver Nuggets - Early Season Returns

While facing daily speculation about trading Carmelo Anthony the Nuggets have started the 2010/11 season with a very respectable 10-6 record.  They only have one bad loss, at Indiana.  "Bad" in this case is more a result of the ridiculous margin, 144-113, than the fact they lost the game.  They have also showed that they can beat the top teams.  They have wins over the Jazz, Lakers and Bulls at home, as well as a victory in Dallas. 

How does their performance measure up?  Let's take a look at the numbers.  But first, I predicted the Nuggets would finish the season with a 50-32 record.

Photo source: dherrera_96

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 110.4 (4th in the NBA) [111.8 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 107.8 (17th) [107.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 2.6 [4.3 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.0 (5th) [106.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 103.6 (23rd) [102.4 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 96.0 (4th) [94.8 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Arron Afflalo
Offensive Rating: 119 (114 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 110 (111)
PER: 13.4 (10.8)

Carmelo Anthony
Offensive Rating: 111 (110)
Defensive Rating: 105 (109)
PER: 23.1 (22.2)

Chauncey Billups
Offensive Rating: 108 (120)
Defensive Rating: 110 (110)
PER: 14.5 (20.2)

Al Harrington
Offensive Rating: 103 (106)
Defensive Rating: 108 (111)
PER: 13.2 (16.8)

Nene
Offensive Rating: 125 (124)
Defensive Rating: 108 (105)
PER: 17.9 (18.9)

Ty Lawson
Offensive Rating: 110 (118)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 14.1 (16.5)

Shelden Williams
Offensive Rating: 108 (118)
Defensive Rating: 106 (103)
PER: 12.2 (14.1)

J.R. Smith
Offensive Rating: 111 (101)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 16.1 (15.1)

Gary Forbes
Offensive Rating: 109 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 109
PER: 16.2

Melvin Ely
Offensive Rating: 125 (not in NBA last season)
Defensive Rating: 106
PER: 11.6

While the Nuggets offensive efficiency has slipped when compared to last season they still have the fourth best mark in the NBA.  The fact that their defensive efficiency is only slightly worse bodes well for Denver, who has been without the two players who had the best Defensive Ratings on the team last year, Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin.

Despite the daily rumors, Anthony has had a spectacular season so far.  His 23.1 PER puts him 11th in the NBA and is up from an excellent 22.2 in 2009/10.  Most impressively, he's pulling down two additional rebounds per game in 2010 despite the fact that he's averaging three less minutes per game.  That's because he's grabbing a career best 20.6% of the boards available to him on the defensive end.  That percentage is second among NBA small forwards who average more than 15 minutes per game.

Unfortunately for Denver, Billups has suffered a big drop in effectiveness.  His PER has fallen 5.7 points and his Offensive Rating has dropped 12 points per 100 possessions.  Both marks are 10 year lows.  His shooting percentage is way down to less than 37%.  His scoring, rebounds and assists averages are also down and his turnovers are up.

In his fourth year Afflalo continues to improve.  While his PER is not exactly spectacular, he is following up an excellent 2009/10 of 43.4% three-point shooting with 43.6% shooting from behind the arc this season.

Nene's PER is down a notch from 18.9 to 17.9 so far but there is nothing alarming in his statistics.  His steal rate has dropped a bit and he's down slightly on rebounds, which can be explained by Carmelo's hunger for the boards.

More disappointing for the Nuggets is the decrease in production year over year from Harrington and Lawson.  Granted, Harrington was not on the Denver roster last year, but when they signed him to a free agent deal I'm sure they didn't expect him to reach an eight year low in efficiency.  In Lawson's case the culprit is his shooting.  Otherwise, his assist rate is up and his turnover rate is down.  Obviously those are important statistics for a point guard.

After struggling last season, Smith seems to have found his game again.  Not only is he shooting a career best 40.9% from three-point range his rebound percentage is up and his turnover rate is down by almost 40%.

Beyond those key players, Denver has utilized Williams, Forbes and Ely in the frontcourt as they've waited for the return of Andersen and Martin.  Led by Anthony this team has performed as well as can be expected.  If he stays, and Billups and Harrington can raise their games up to their historical averages then the Nuggets may be able to make a surprise run toward the Western Conference Finals.

What have you seen that you've liked and disliked out of the Nuggets so far this season?  Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Early Season Returns

Little is expected from the Timberwolves this NBA season, but the nice thing is they've shown some reasons for hope.  It's not necessarily reflected in their 4-12 record, but in the mostly consistent impact of Kevin Love and Michael Beasley and in the recent flashes of competency by Darko Milicic.  Who else is exceeding or missing expectations?  Let's take a look at some advanced statistics.

But first, I predicted the Timberwolves would put up a 16-66 record.

Photo source: k1k0.com

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 101.7 (29th in the NBA) [101.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 110.8 (28th) [111.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -9.1 [-9.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.5 (9th) [98.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 110.6 (30th) [107.8 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 99.1 (1st) [96.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Kevin Love
Offensive Rating: 113 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 109 (109)
PER: 22.4 (20.7)

Michael Beasley
Offensive Rating: 100 (101)
Defensive Rating: 111 (103)
PER: 16.9 (16.1)

Wesley Johnson
Offensive Rating: 105 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 114
PER: 9.8

Darko Milicic
Offensive Rating: 90 (101)
Defensive Rating: 106 (109)
PER: 12.5 (12.8)

Sebastian Telfair
Offensive Rating: 101 (98)
Defensive Rating: 115 (111)
PER: 10.4 (10.3)

Corey Brewer
Offensive Rating: 98 (98)
Defensive Rating: 106 (111)
PER: 12.8 (12.1)

Anthony Tolliver
Offensive Rating: 122 (111)
Defensive Rating: 111 (112)
PER: 14.3 (13.6)

Luke Ridnour
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 113 (106)
PER: 13.7 (17.7)

Wayne Ellington
Offensive Rating: 85 (101)
Defensive Rating: 114 (115)
PER: 5.3 (9.6)

Nikola Pekovic
Offensive Rating: 96 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 114
PER: 8.7

After playing at the third fastest pace in the NBA in the 2009/10 season (96.1 possessions per game), Minnesota has sped up the game even more to play at the fastest pace (99.1) in the league through their first 16 games.  At this point it doesn't seem to be helping them very much.  While they've improved their defensive efficiency ever so slighly, their offensive efficiency is identical to last season.  The quicker pace does make them a little more fun for fans to watch.

Love has already posted some ridiculous stat lines.  His 31-point 31-rebound effort against the Knicks was phenomenal.  On Wednesday night he put up 32 and 22 against the Spurs.  He was a very productive player last year, although mostly under the radar, so his PER has not jumped dramatically.  But, it's very important to note that he is the 17th best player in the NBA right now by PER.

While Beasley's PER has improved slightly, it is somewhat alarming what he's done with his Defensive Rating.  It's fallen from a respectable 103 last season to 110 in 2010.  That can be attributed in part to pace.  Consider the Miami Heat team he was a member of in 2009/10 played at a pace of 89.6 possessions per game, nearly 10 fewer than the Timberwolves.  To his credit, he has raised his shooting percentages nicely, from 45.0 to 47.6 on twos and from 27.5 to 45.5 behind the arc.

No player in the rest of the rotation is producing at the NBA average PER of 15.0.  Free agent signee Tolliver is the closest at 14.3 in less than 20 minutes a game. 

Ridnour recently returned from a hamstring injury.  He's been decent but his PER has fallen from 17.7 last season to 13.7 so far in 2010.  However, he is shooting an impressive 40% from three-point range.  Telfair played the majority of the minutes at the point with Ridnour out.  Based on past performance, his production level is right about what should be expected. 

Besides Beasley, the Timberwolves are struggling to get production from their wings.  Brewer continues to improve at a snail's pace.  To the positive, his Defensive Rating is better by five points per 100 possessions.  Shooting has never been his strength but he's been particularly awful this season.  He's shooting a career worst 35.8%.  The rookie from Syracuse, Johnson, is also struggling with his shooting.

Clearly Minnesota will not be contending for the Western Conference playoffs, nobody expected that to happen.  But, to be happy about their progress they'll want to see some considerable growth in the players that they want to build their future around.  Right now there are just not enough of those types of players.  Love and Beasley are looking good.  Beyond that the Timberwolves need more consistent production from the other youngsters like Johnson and Brewer, and Johnny Flynn when he returns from injury.

What are your observations about the Timberwolves so far in this young season?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Milwaukee Bucks - Early Season Returns

To put it bluntly, the Bucks have been one of my biggest disappointments in 2010.  Before the season I predicted Milwaukee would put up a 49-33 record.  They are currently muddling around at 5-8.  The good news is that they only have two losses that would be lumped in the "Bad" category for a team that should be challenging for the Central Division title, at Minnesota and at Philadelphia.  But, if they don't start winning quickly they may find themselves in a hole from which they will not be able to dig out.

What have been the Bucks' biggest challenges?  Let's take a look at the advanced stats.

Photo source: compujeramey

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 99.4 (30th in the NBA) [104.9 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 99.1 (2nd) [103.1 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 0.3 [1.8 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 91.4 (30th) [97.7 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 91.1 (1st) [96.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.2 (22nd) [91.7 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Brandon Jennings
Offensive Rating: 104 (100 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 17.0 (14.5)

John Salmons
Offensive Rating: 96 (110)
Defensive Rating: 102 (106)
PER: 10.3 (14.7)

Andrew Bogut
Offensive Rating: 103 (107)
Defensive Rating: 96 (98)
PER: 16.5 (20.7)

Drew Gooden
Offensive Rating: 103 (109)
Defensive Rating: 97 (106)
PER: 16.6 (16.9)

Luc Mbah a Moute
Offensive Rating: 97 (111)
Defensive Rating: 99 (103)
PER: 9.2 (11.8)

Corey Maggette
Offensive Rating: 103 (116)
Defensive Rating: 102 (113)
PER: 15.1 (20.3)

Carlos Delfino
Offensive Rating: 104 (103)
Defensive Rating: 99 (103)
PER: 12.8 (12.9)

Ersan Ilyasova
Offensive Rating: 95 (110)
Defensive Rating: 98 (102)
PER: 11.3 (15.7)

Keyon Dooling
Offensive Rating: 82 (102)
Defensive Rating: 103 (113)
PER: 4.0 (11.6)

Earl Boykins
Offensive Rating: 104 (103)
Defensive Rating: 99 (114)
PER: 16.3 (12.9)

Jon Brockman
Offensive Rating: 107 (124)
Defensive Rating: 100 (110)
PER: 6.3 (12.4)

Looking at the team numbers the problem for the Bucks is clear - it's the offense.  They are currently last in the NBA at 99.4 points per 100 possessions.  They are also the worst shooting team in the NBA at 41.1%.  Keeping them afloat is their solid defense.  They are holding opponents to just 99.1 points per 100 possessions, the second best mark in the NBA.

Second year player Jennings cannot be blamed for the dropoff.  He's improved in all three areas noted above.  He's gone from a -4 differential to a +4 differential, a solid jump.  While still not a deadeye, he's raised his shooting to 39.4% from 37.1% last season.

After a very productive 2009/10 Bogut has dropped off a bit this year.  His shooting has fallen from 52% to 48% and his free throw shooting is an absolutely atrocious 46.3%.  He has maintained his defensive prowess however, letting up only 96 points per 100 possessions.

Gooden has given the Bucks right about what they should have been expecting.  His PER is just down a notch but his defense has benefitted from the emphasis on it in Milwaukee.  He's currently posting the best Defensive Rating of his career.

I'm surprised at how poorly Salmons is playing.  Right now he has the worst Offensive Rating of his nine year career.  After joining the Bucks toward the end of last season he posted a solid 17.6 PER.  That number is way down, to 10.3 through the first 13 games.  The main culprit - his shooting, which has dropped nearly 100 points.  He has been playing through an injury.  Hopefully he can put that behind him and start delivering on a more consistent basis.

Free agent acquisition Maggette is also struggling to provide the boost Milwaukee was hoping for when they signed him.  His PER has fallen 5.2 points from last season.  Like the others, he cannot put the ball through the twine.  At 41% he's shooting worse than in any other year of his career.  His assist percentage is also less than half of what it was in 2009/10.

Delfino started the first seven games before getting hurt.  He has improved his shooting but is down in most every other category despite playing bigger minutes.

Making our way down the rotation, the Bucks have to be disappointed in the production of Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova, Dooling and Brockman. 

How would you rate the Bucks through the first 13 games?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.