Denver Nuggets - Early Season Returns

While facing daily speculation about trading Carmelo Anthony the Nuggets have started the 2010/11 season with a very respectable 10-6 record.  They only have one bad loss, at Indiana.  "Bad" in this case is more a result of the ridiculous margin, 144-113, than the fact they lost the game.  They have also showed that they can beat the top teams.  They have wins over the Jazz, Lakers and Bulls at home, as well as a victory in Dallas. 

How does their performance measure up?  Let's take a look at the numbers.  But first, I predicted the Nuggets would finish the season with a 50-32 record.

Photo source: dherrera_96

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 110.4 (4th in the NBA) [111.8 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 107.8 (17th) [107.5 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 2.6 [4.3 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 106.0 (5th) [106.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 103.6 (23rd) [102.4 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 96.0 (4th) [94.8 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Arron Afflalo
Offensive Rating: 119 (114 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 110 (111)
PER: 13.4 (10.8)

Carmelo Anthony
Offensive Rating: 111 (110)
Defensive Rating: 105 (109)
PER: 23.1 (22.2)

Chauncey Billups
Offensive Rating: 108 (120)
Defensive Rating: 110 (110)
PER: 14.5 (20.2)

Al Harrington
Offensive Rating: 103 (106)
Defensive Rating: 108 (111)
PER: 13.2 (16.8)

Nene
Offensive Rating: 125 (124)
Defensive Rating: 108 (105)
PER: 17.9 (18.9)

Ty Lawson
Offensive Rating: 110 (118)
Defensive Rating: 112 (111)
PER: 14.1 (16.5)

Shelden Williams
Offensive Rating: 108 (118)
Defensive Rating: 106 (103)
PER: 12.2 (14.1)

J.R. Smith
Offensive Rating: 111 (101)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 16.1 (15.1)

Gary Forbes
Offensive Rating: 109 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 109
PER: 16.2

Melvin Ely
Offensive Rating: 125 (not in NBA last season)
Defensive Rating: 106
PER: 11.6

While the Nuggets offensive efficiency has slipped when compared to last season they still have the fourth best mark in the NBA.  The fact that their defensive efficiency is only slightly worse bodes well for Denver, who has been without the two players who had the best Defensive Ratings on the team last year, Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin.

Despite the daily rumors, Anthony has had a spectacular season so far.  His 23.1 PER puts him 11th in the NBA and is up from an excellent 22.2 in 2009/10.  Most impressively, he's pulling down two additional rebounds per game in 2010 despite the fact that he's averaging three less minutes per game.  That's because he's grabbing a career best 20.6% of the boards available to him on the defensive end.  That percentage is second among NBA small forwards who average more than 15 minutes per game.

Unfortunately for Denver, Billups has suffered a big drop in effectiveness.  His PER has fallen 5.7 points and his Offensive Rating has dropped 12 points per 100 possessions.  Both marks are 10 year lows.  His shooting percentage is way down to less than 37%.  His scoring, rebounds and assists averages are also down and his turnovers are up.

In his fourth year Afflalo continues to improve.  While his PER is not exactly spectacular, he is following up an excellent 2009/10 of 43.4% three-point shooting with 43.6% shooting from behind the arc this season.

Nene's PER is down a notch from 18.9 to 17.9 so far but there is nothing alarming in his statistics.  His steal rate has dropped a bit and he's down slightly on rebounds, which can be explained by Carmelo's hunger for the boards.

More disappointing for the Nuggets is the decrease in production year over year from Harrington and Lawson.  Granted, Harrington was not on the Denver roster last year, but when they signed him to a free agent deal I'm sure they didn't expect him to reach an eight year low in efficiency.  In Lawson's case the culprit is his shooting.  Otherwise, his assist rate is up and his turnover rate is down.  Obviously those are important statistics for a point guard.

After struggling last season, Smith seems to have found his game again.  Not only is he shooting a career best 40.9% from three-point range his rebound percentage is up and his turnover rate is down by almost 40%.

Beyond those key players, Denver has utilized Williams, Forbes and Ely in the frontcourt as they've waited for the return of Andersen and Martin.  Led by Anthony this team has performed as well as can be expected.  If he stays, and Billups and Harrington can raise their games up to their historical averages then the Nuggets may be able to make a surprise run toward the Western Conference Finals.

What have you seen that you've liked and disliked out of the Nuggets so far this season?  Share your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Early Season Returns

Little is expected from the Timberwolves this NBA season, but the nice thing is they've shown some reasons for hope.  It's not necessarily reflected in their 4-12 record, but in the mostly consistent impact of Kevin Love and Michael Beasley and in the recent flashes of competency by Darko Milicic.  Who else is exceeding or missing expectations?  Let's take a look at some advanced statistics.

But first, I predicted the Timberwolves would put up a 16-66 record.

Photo source: k1k0.com

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 101.7 (29th in the NBA) [101.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 110.8 (28th) [111.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -9.1 [-9.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.5 (9th) [98.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 110.6 (30th) [107.8 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 99.1 (1st) [96.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Kevin Love
Offensive Rating: 113 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 109 (109)
PER: 22.4 (20.7)

Michael Beasley
Offensive Rating: 100 (101)
Defensive Rating: 111 (103)
PER: 16.9 (16.1)

Wesley Johnson
Offensive Rating: 105 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 114
PER: 9.8

Darko Milicic
Offensive Rating: 90 (101)
Defensive Rating: 106 (109)
PER: 12.5 (12.8)

Sebastian Telfair
Offensive Rating: 101 (98)
Defensive Rating: 115 (111)
PER: 10.4 (10.3)

Corey Brewer
Offensive Rating: 98 (98)
Defensive Rating: 106 (111)
PER: 12.8 (12.1)

Anthony Tolliver
Offensive Rating: 122 (111)
Defensive Rating: 111 (112)
PER: 14.3 (13.6)

Luke Ridnour
Offensive Rating: 110 (116)
Defensive Rating: 113 (106)
PER: 13.7 (17.7)

Wayne Ellington
Offensive Rating: 85 (101)
Defensive Rating: 114 (115)
PER: 5.3 (9.6)

Nikola Pekovic
Offensive Rating: 96 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 114
PER: 8.7

After playing at the third fastest pace in the NBA in the 2009/10 season (96.1 possessions per game), Minnesota has sped up the game even more to play at the fastest pace (99.1) in the league through their first 16 games.  At this point it doesn't seem to be helping them very much.  While they've improved their defensive efficiency ever so slighly, their offensive efficiency is identical to last season.  The quicker pace does make them a little more fun for fans to watch.

Love has already posted some ridiculous stat lines.  His 31-point 31-rebound effort against the Knicks was phenomenal.  On Wednesday night he put up 32 and 22 against the Spurs.  He was a very productive player last year, although mostly under the radar, so his PER has not jumped dramatically.  But, it's very important to note that he is the 17th best player in the NBA right now by PER.

While Beasley's PER has improved slightly, it is somewhat alarming what he's done with his Defensive Rating.  It's fallen from a respectable 103 last season to 110 in 2010.  That can be attributed in part to pace.  Consider the Miami Heat team he was a member of in 2009/10 played at a pace of 89.6 possessions per game, nearly 10 fewer than the Timberwolves.  To his credit, he has raised his shooting percentages nicely, from 45.0 to 47.6 on twos and from 27.5 to 45.5 behind the arc.

No player in the rest of the rotation is producing at the NBA average PER of 15.0.  Free agent signee Tolliver is the closest at 14.3 in less than 20 minutes a game. 

Ridnour recently returned from a hamstring injury.  He's been decent but his PER has fallen from 17.7 last season to 13.7 so far in 2010.  However, he is shooting an impressive 40% from three-point range.  Telfair played the majority of the minutes at the point with Ridnour out.  Based on past performance, his production level is right about what should be expected. 

Besides Beasley, the Timberwolves are struggling to get production from their wings.  Brewer continues to improve at a snail's pace.  To the positive, his Defensive Rating is better by five points per 100 possessions.  Shooting has never been his strength but he's been particularly awful this season.  He's shooting a career worst 35.8%.  The rookie from Syracuse, Johnson, is also struggling with his shooting.

Clearly Minnesota will not be contending for the Western Conference playoffs, nobody expected that to happen.  But, to be happy about their progress they'll want to see some considerable growth in the players that they want to build their future around.  Right now there are just not enough of those types of players.  Love and Beasley are looking good.  Beyond that the Timberwolves need more consistent production from the other youngsters like Johnson and Brewer, and Johnny Flynn when he returns from injury.

What are your observations about the Timberwolves so far in this young season?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

Milwaukee Bucks - Early Season Returns

To put it bluntly, the Bucks have been one of my biggest disappointments in 2010.  Before the season I predicted Milwaukee would put up a 49-33 record.  They are currently muddling around at 5-8.  The good news is that they only have two losses that would be lumped in the "Bad" category for a team that should be challenging for the Central Division title, at Minnesota and at Philadelphia.  But, if they don't start winning quickly they may find themselves in a hole from which they will not be able to dig out.

What have been the Bucks' biggest challenges?  Let's take a look at the advanced stats.

Photo source: compujeramey

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 99.4 (30th in the NBA) [104.9 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 99.1 (2nd) [103.1 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 0.3 [1.8 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 91.4 (30th) [97.7 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 91.1 (1st) [96.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.2 (22nd) [91.7 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Brandon Jennings
Offensive Rating: 104 (100 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 17.0 (14.5)

John Salmons
Offensive Rating: 96 (110)
Defensive Rating: 102 (106)
PER: 10.3 (14.7)

Andrew Bogut
Offensive Rating: 103 (107)
Defensive Rating: 96 (98)
PER: 16.5 (20.7)

Drew Gooden
Offensive Rating: 103 (109)
Defensive Rating: 97 (106)
PER: 16.6 (16.9)

Luc Mbah a Moute
Offensive Rating: 97 (111)
Defensive Rating: 99 (103)
PER: 9.2 (11.8)

Corey Maggette
Offensive Rating: 103 (116)
Defensive Rating: 102 (113)
PER: 15.1 (20.3)

Carlos Delfino
Offensive Rating: 104 (103)
Defensive Rating: 99 (103)
PER: 12.8 (12.9)

Ersan Ilyasova
Offensive Rating: 95 (110)
Defensive Rating: 98 (102)
PER: 11.3 (15.7)

Keyon Dooling
Offensive Rating: 82 (102)
Defensive Rating: 103 (113)
PER: 4.0 (11.6)

Earl Boykins
Offensive Rating: 104 (103)
Defensive Rating: 99 (114)
PER: 16.3 (12.9)

Jon Brockman
Offensive Rating: 107 (124)
Defensive Rating: 100 (110)
PER: 6.3 (12.4)

Looking at the team numbers the problem for the Bucks is clear - it's the offense.  They are currently last in the NBA at 99.4 points per 100 possessions.  They are also the worst shooting team in the NBA at 41.1%.  Keeping them afloat is their solid defense.  They are holding opponents to just 99.1 points per 100 possessions, the second best mark in the NBA.

Second year player Jennings cannot be blamed for the dropoff.  He's improved in all three areas noted above.  He's gone from a -4 differential to a +4 differential, a solid jump.  While still not a deadeye, he's raised his shooting to 39.4% from 37.1% last season.

After a very productive 2009/10 Bogut has dropped off a bit this year.  His shooting has fallen from 52% to 48% and his free throw shooting is an absolutely atrocious 46.3%.  He has maintained his defensive prowess however, letting up only 96 points per 100 possessions.

Gooden has given the Bucks right about what they should have been expecting.  His PER is just down a notch but his defense has benefitted from the emphasis on it in Milwaukee.  He's currently posting the best Defensive Rating of his career.

I'm surprised at how poorly Salmons is playing.  Right now he has the worst Offensive Rating of his nine year career.  After joining the Bucks toward the end of last season he posted a solid 17.6 PER.  That number is way down, to 10.3 through the first 13 games.  The main culprit - his shooting, which has dropped nearly 100 points.  He has been playing through an injury.  Hopefully he can put that behind him and start delivering on a more consistent basis.

Free agent acquisition Maggette is also struggling to provide the boost Milwaukee was hoping for when they signed him.  His PER has fallen 5.2 points from last season.  Like the others, he cannot put the ball through the twine.  At 41% he's shooting worse than in any other year of his career.  His assist percentage is also less than half of what it was in 2009/10.

Delfino started the first seven games before getting hurt.  He has improved his shooting but is down in most every other category despite playing bigger minutes.

Making our way down the rotation, the Bucks have to be disappointed in the production of Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova, Dooling and Brockman. 

How would you rate the Bucks through the first 13 games?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Chicago Bulls - Early Season Returns

Without key acquisition Carlos Boozer, the Bulls have started the 2010/11 season with a very respectable 7-4 record.  The only loss that you may call a bad one would be to the New York Knicks in the fourth game at home.  On the positive side, Chicago has some quality wins at home over Portland, Denver and Golden State, and on the road in Dallas.

Photo source: keith011764

Let's jump into some of the advanced statistics through the first 11 games to see what's been keying their wins and who may need to pick up their game as the season continues.

For the record, I predicted the Bulls would finish the season at 50-32.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 106.7 (16th in the NBA) [103.5 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 103.2 (8th) [105.3 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 3.5 [-1.8 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.5 (9th) [97.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 98.3 (12th) [99.1 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 94.3 (13th) [93.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Luol Deng
Offensive Rating: 104 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 106 (106)
PER: 14.2 (16.1)

Joakim Noah
Offensive Rating: 118 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (101)
PER: 19.9 (17.9)

Derrick Rose
Offensive Rating: 110 (106)
Defensive Rating: 106 (109)
PER: 22.6 (18.6)

Taj Gibson
Offensive Rating: 110 (104)
Defensive Rating: 101 (103)
PER: 17.9 (13.8)

Keith Bogans
Offensive Rating: 105 (106)
Defensive Rating: 104 (106)
PER: 9.1 (7.7)

Kyle Korver
Offensive Rating: 124 (116)
Defensive Rating: 105 (107)
PER: 15.5 (13.9)

Ronnie Brewer
Offensive Rating: 105 (110)
Defensive Rating: 101 (106)
PER: 13.6 (12.5)

Omer Asik
Offensive Rating: 96 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 102
PER: 9.0

C.J. Watson
Offensive Rating: 100 (112)
Defensive Rating: 103 (112)
PER: 13.8 (13.8)

When you delve into the early season statistics for the Bulls there is a lot to like.  They've improved their offensive efficiency from 103.5 in 2009/10 to 106.7 and their defensive efficiency from 105.3 to 103.2.  This has resulted in a very impressive jump in their differential from -1.8 to 3.5.  I haven't researched it yet, but I doubt there is another team in the NBA that has forced such a dramatic improvement.

The continued development of Chicago's key young players shows you exactly why many NBA followers were pointing to this franchise as one of the best positioned.  While he's only played the third most minutes on the team, Rose is where much of this talk starts.  His 22.6 PER has him ranked 16th overall in the NBA at the moment and is an excellent four point improvement over last season. Two stats jump out at me in regards to Rose - his three-point shooting (he's taking three more per game this season and shooting 34%, up from 27%) and his assists (up to 8.5 per game from 6.0 per game last season).

Noah is the other player that was lauded for his potential over the summer.  Well he's bringing it again in 2010.  He's bumped his PER up, by two points to 19.9, and improved both his Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating.  After a bit of a drop in shooting percentage last season he's boomeranged back up to 53%.

Second-year man Gibson has also stepped his game up nicely while filling in for Boozer.  His PER has jumped 4.1 points and his efficiency differential is up from +1 to +9.

On the down side, Deng is averaging the most minutes per game at 38.6 but he has not been efficient.  His PER is as low as it's ever been, tied with his rookie year number at this point and below that of the average player (15.0).  His field-goal shooting is an awful 41%, his free-throw shooting percentage, steals and rebounds are all down and his turnovers are up.

The fact that Bogans is getting so many minutes is scary for the Bulls.  His PER is a very poor 9.1.  Of course, they were hoping Brewer would take hold of the off guard position. He has not done that quite yet, mostly because he does not have a three-point shot that can spread the defense.  Korver does and he's showing some nice improvement over last year's numbers.  At 15.5 he's putting up the highest PER of his career.

Watson has struggled with his shot in small minutes, but is making up for it by creating more shots for teammates.

The key to the long term success of the Bulls is certaintly to get Boozer back and work him into rotation.  His game will be a great complement to Rose and Noah and should position the Bulls as a real threat to the Eastern Conference crown.  If Gibson can continue his strong play while Deng raises his shooting percentage then there is no doubt Chicago can contend.

What are your observations on the Bulls so far in 2010?  Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Atlanta Hawks - Early Season Returns

The Hawks have increased their regular season win total in five straight seasons.  After winning 53 in 2009/10, it's going to be very difficult to extend that streak to six.  But at 8-4 they are doing well.  It's how they got there that's been somewhat strange.  They opened the season with six straight wins including four on the road.  They proceeded to lose their next four against good competition.  Since then they've won two against weaker opponents.

What do the statistics tell us?  Let's take a look.  But first, I picked the Hawks to finish the season at 51-31.

Photo source: hectorir

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.4 (4th in the NBA) [111.9 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 107.7 (20th) [106.7 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 3.7 [5.2 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.8 (12th) [101.7 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 98.5 (10th) [97.0 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.4 (23rd) [90.1 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Joe Johnson
Offensive Rating: 108 (112 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 111 (109)
PER: 16.9 (19.3)

Josh Smith
Offensive Rating: 107 (109)
Defensive Rating: 100 (101)
PER: 21.4 (21.0)

Al Horford
Offensive Rating: 134 (121)
Defensive Rating: 106 (105)
PER: 26.3 (19.4)

Mike Bibby
Offensive Rating: 121 (113)
Defensive Rating: 111 (110)
PER: 14.0 (12.7)

Jamal Crawford
Offensive Rating: 111 (114)
Defensive Rating: 111 (110)
PER: 15.0 (18.4)

Marvin Williams
Offensive Rating: 112 (113)
Defensive Rating: 109 (107)
PER: 12.6 (13.0)

Zaza Pachulia
Offensive Rating: 123 (110)
Defensive Rating: 106 (104)
PER: 15.9 (13.1)

Jeff Teague
Offensive Rating: 106 (96)
Defensive Rating: 107 (106)
PER: 13.1 (11.0)

Josh Powell
Offensive Rating: 91 (89)
Defensive Rating: 109 (106)
PER: 8.4 (6.7)

Although down slightly from last season, the efficiency of the Hawks offense has been extremely impressive.  At 111.4 points per 100 possessions they rank fourth in the NBA.  The trouble is that defensively they are allowing an additional one point per 100 possessions over their 2009/10 season number.  As a result of those two marks, Atlanta's differential is down to 3.7 from 5.2.

Looking at individuals, the first thing that stands out is the leap that Horford has taken this season.  He's improved his PER by almost seven and his Offensive Rating is an off-the-charts 134.  The keys to his improved effectiveness are his stellar 63.7% shooting from the field (up from 55.1%) and his 82.9% free-throw shooting (up from 78.9).

Headed in the other direction is the $120 million man, Joe Johnson.  His PER is down 2.4 points and he actually has a negative three rating differential.  His three-point shooting percentage has dropped by more than 100 points.

Smith is maintaining the momentum of his big breakout last season.  His PER is up .4 from his spectacular 21.0 last season.

Bibby has also improved his PER, from 12.7 in 2009/10 to 14.0.  Maybe more important, he has boosted his differential to +10.  His field-goal percentage is up almost 70 points in part due to his excellence behind the arc, where he is shooting 43.1%.

While Crawford continues to demand action on his contract his effectiveness is falling.  He's following up a strong 2009/10 with an average season.  Crawford's three-point shooting is down almost 50 points and he's pulling fewer boards down as well.

Off the bench, Pachulia and Teague have improved.  But, if the Hawks are going to make a real run, they'll need Johnson, Crawford and another underperformer, Marvin Williams, to raise their level of play.

How would you rate Atlanta's season so far?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Golden State Warriors - Early Season Returns

As I look at the NBA standings right now I've got to say that Golden State is one of the biggest surprises to me.  After all, I picked the Warriors to finish the season 26-56.  At 7-4 they are more than a quarter of the way toward that victory total just 11 games into the season.  My reasoning for that prediction was that I thought that the addition of David Lee would only add to their freewheeling, no defense culture.  But surprisingly, at least in regards to defense, that has not been the case.  Let's take a look at the numbers.

Photo source: Christian

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 104.9 (18th in the NBA) [108.1 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 106.3 (9th) [111.7 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -1.4 [-3.6 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 101.4 (13th) [108.8 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 102.7 (17th) [112.4 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 96.6 (5th) [100.4 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Monta Ellis
Offensive Rating: 114 (99 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 106 (112)
PER: 22.5 (16.7)

Dorell Wright
Offensive Rating: 109 (114)
Defensive Rating: 108 (104)
PER: 13.3 (14.5)

Stephen Curry
Offensive Rating: 108 (107)
Defensive Rating: 105 (111)
PER: 19.7 (16.3)

Andris Biedrins
Offensive Rating: 105 (113)
Defensive Rating: 103 (107)
PER: 12.7 (13.0)

David Lee
Offensive Rating: 104 (116)
Defensive Rating: 105 (108)
PER: 16.4 (22.2)

Reggie Williams
Offensive Rating: 102 (116)
Defensive Rating: 111 (114)
PER: 10.1 (16.0)

Rodney Carney
Offensive Rating: 104 (109)
Defensive Rating: 109 (111)
PER: 11.2 (12.7)

Vladimir Radmanovic
Offensive Rating: 96 (92)
Defensive Rating: 107 (111)
PER: 8.0 (7.9)

Brandan Wright
Offensive Rating: 106 (118)
Defensive Rating: 108 (112)
PER: 13.8 (18.7)

Dan Gadzuric
Offensive Rating: 100 (96)
Defensive Rating: 107 (100)
PER: 12.9 (10.5)

The Warriors have improved dramatically on defense in the first 11 games of 2010.  They've improved their Defensive Efficiency rating from 29th in the NBA last season to 9th in the NBA this season.  In raw numbers they are allowing 5.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last year.  However, their Offensive Efficiency has also dropped, by 3.2 points.  Most importantly though, their differential has improved from -3.6 in 2009/10 to -1.4 this season.

The key reason for Golden State's excellent performance is the improved play of Ellis.  He's made a significant jump in PER from 16.7 to 22.5.  He's improved his Offensive Rating dramatically from 99 to 114 and his Defensive Rating impressively from 112 to 106.  His field-goal percentage is up nicely and he's gunning it less, taking two and a half fewer shots per game than he did last season.

Curry's play has moved in the right direction as well.  He's improved his efficiency differential from -4 to +3.  His PER has also jumped 3.4 points.  That's particularly impressive considering that he's been battling ankle injuries.

Expected to be a big contributor, Lee's productivity has dropped since he joined the Warriors.  His PER is down almost six points, his field-goal percentage is down 80 points, his free-throw percentage is down 85 points and he's averaging half a turnover more per game.  Adapting to new teammates and a new playing style could be blamed for Lee's decreased effectiveness.  Golden State needs him to return from his infected elbow quickly if they are going to continue to perform at a high level.

The other big offseason addition, Dorell Wright, seems to be struggling to be as productive as he's been in the past now that he's playing nearly twice as many minutes.

Beyond that, the rest of the players in Golden State's rotation have put up decreased PERs this season (with the exception of Gadzuric) but on the good side, they've all also improved their Defensive Efficiency (again with the exception of Gadzuric).  To me, that speaks to the fact that their improvement on defense is the major factor in their stellar record to begin the season.

What would you say the keys are to the Warriors quick start?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Miami Heat - Early Season Returns

After signing LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, the Miami Heat were expected by many to run roughshod over the rest of the NBA...to become barnstormers in the tradition of the Harlem Globetrotters.  But the road to a season with 72+ wins has unexpectedly included huge potholes, and the Heat have not quite performed up to those lofty expections.

Miami is 6-4 and has already lost twice to Eastern Conference rival Boston.  They've also lost to the still undefeated New Orleans Hornets in the Big Easy and at home to a hot Utah Jazz team.  I don't think any of the four losses should be filed in the "Bad Loss" category.  What do the early season statistics tell us about the Heat?  Let's take a look.

I predicted the Heat would finish the season at 62-20.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 111.2 (4th in the NBA) [106.6 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 101.0 (5th) [104.1 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 10.2 [2.5 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 102.7 (8th) [96.5 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 93.3 (5th) [94.2 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.4 (22nd) [89.6]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

LeBron James
Offensive Rating: 107 (121 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 99 (102)
PER: 23.6 (31.1)

Photo source: rubendn

Dwyane Wade
Offensive Rating: 110 (113)
Defensive Rating: 100 (103)
PER: 24.4 (28.0)

Chris Bosh
Offensive Rating: 118 (117)
Defensive Rating: 101 (111)
PER: 18.7 (25.0)

Udonis Haslem
Offensive Rating: 112 (111)
Defensive Rating: 99 (104)
PER: 13.6 (14.6)

James Jones
Offensive Rating: 144 (113)
Defensive Rating: 105 (108)
PER: 14.7 (8.8)

Carlos Arroyo
Offensive Rating: 109 (115)
Defensive Rating: 106 (108)
PER: 10.0 (12.3)

Eddie House
Offensive Rating: 106 (99)
Defensive Rating: 101 (109)
PER: 12.1 (10.5)

Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Offensive Rating: 116 (102)
Defensive Rating: 100 (104)
PER: 15.1 (12.0)

Joel Anthony
Offensive Rating: 135 (112)
Defensive Rating: 100 (103)
PER: 8.3 (10.2)

From a statistical ranking standpoint the Heat look good with both their Offensive and Defensive Efficiency within the NBA's top five.  A 10.2 rating differential is also excellent, and much improved, as you'd expect.  Interestingly, they do play at a rather slow pace of 91.4 possessions per game, which ranks them 22nd in the NBA.  You'd think that with LeBron and Wade they would play at a quicker pace.

The two most fascinating storylines around the Heat will be one, how the combination of the The Big Three affects the productivity of each individual superstar, and two, how much the supporting cast will contribute.

Starting with the first storyline, immediately you notice that LeBron, Wade and Bosh are all producing less in 2010 than they did last season.  LeBron's PER has dropped by 7.5 points.  His shooting percentage is down, his scoring is down, his rebounding is down and his turnovers are up.  Bosh's PER is down 6.3 points.  His scoring and rebounding have dropped nearly 50%.  Wade's PER has fallen by the smallest amount among The Big Three, 3.6 points.  His shooting percentage and rebounding are actually up but his assists and scoring are down.
 
Looking at the second storyline, you can see some of the challenges Miami has experienced so far.  Only one of the six Heat players in the supporting cast who have played significant minutes has a PER above the average player.  That one is Ilgauskas who is 0.1 above the average.
 
Jones has put in some good minutes and has raised his PER by nearly six points over last season.  His Offensive Rating is an extremely impressive 144.
 
Haslem is being counted on to be one of the closers on the front line but his production has not been good and is down from 2009/10.  The same can be said of starting "point guard" Arroyo.
 
The Heat are said to be reconsidering Erick Dampier.  Look no further than the play of Anthony for the reason.  His 8.3 PER is miserable.
 
Miami will be happy to get Mike Miller back from injury, but even taking that into consideration, it looks like they may need to make another move, to secure a strong defensive low post player, if they want to claim the NBA Finals.
 
What are your thoughts on the first 10 games of the Heat season?  What do you think they need to do to become the Superteam they are supposed to be?  Let me know by posting a comment below.

New York Knicks - Early Season Returns

Photo source: Lordcolus

The Knicks made as many changes to their roster as any team in the NBA.  How have all the moves helped New York?  If you look at the record the answer is - incrementally.  The Knicks were 1-8 in the first nine games of 2009 and have started the 2010/11 season 3-6.

They have a really good win at Chicago but have now lost four in a row.  Let's take a look at the team stats and some advanced individual stats to see what they tell us.

Before that though, I predicted the Knicks would have a 40-42 record.

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 103.8 (23rd in the NBA) [107.6 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 106.8 (17th) [111.6 in 2009]
Rating Differential: -3.0 [-4.0 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 102.4 (11th) [102.1 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 105.3 (24th) [105.9 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 98.7 (2nd) [94.0 in 2009]

Player Stats
(in order of minutes played)

Raymond Felton
Offensive Rating:  114 (107 in 2009)
Defensive Rating:  109 (103)
PER:  18.7 (15.2)

Amare Stoudamire
Offensive Rating: 97 (117 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (109)
PER: 16.8 (22.6)

Wilson Chandler
Offensive Rating: 104 (106 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (113)
PER: 18.5 (13.7)

Danilo Gallinari
Offensive Rating: 117 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 109 (112)
PER: 14.7 (14.8)

Toney Douglas
Offensive Rating: 107 (113 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 106 (113)
PER: 16.2 (14.9)

Landry Fields
Offensive Rating: 121 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 108
PER: 14.9

Ronny Turiaf
Offensive Rating: 136 (110 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 105 (110)
PER: 16.6 (12.6)

Timofey Mozgov
Offensive Rating: 76 (Rookie)
Defensive Rating: 103 (103)
PER: 5.9 (15.2)

Bill Walker
Offensive Rating: 91 (122 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 113 (113)
PER: 4.8 (14.6)

The Knicks are playing at a faster pace than last season but their offensive efficiency has gone down.  That is not a recipe for success.  However, they've improved their defensive efficiency by nearly five points per 100 possessions and have increased their efficiency margin to -3 from -4 in 2009/10.

Because of all the roster turnover we cannot quite compare apples to apples as far as individual contributions.  So let's start by taking a look at the new additions.  It is clear that Stoudamire is underperforming his massive contract.  His year over year drop in PER from 22.6 to 16.8 is frightening.  The most obvious culprit - his field-goal shooting percentage has fallen more than 100 points.

The other big offseason acquisition, Felton, has been an excellent contributor.  I ranked him as one of the top 10 point guards in the NBA after last season.  On a less defensively-focused team his Defensive Rating has risen but his Offensive Rating has matched it.  There was uncertainty about his ability to run the up tempo Knicks offense, but he is clearly excelling in the system.

Chandler has been a solid contributor off the bench.  He's raised his PER almost five points from last season and has the second highest PER on the team.  Douglas has authored a nice little jump in his PER as well and has been outstanding in a few games.

The Knicks have to hope that Gallinari has recovered from his early season wrist injury.  Cumulatively over the first nine games, he's been just a guy.  The average PER ranking is 15.0 and he's at 14.7.  The good news is that he's picked up his play over the last two games.  His 35% field-goal shooting percentage is really hurting him.

Fields is starting and his 14.9 PER portrays him as just a guy. But he does have an excellent margin in efficiency, with a +13.  Fellow rookie Mozgov has been pretty awful.

Turiaf is the only piece from the David Lee trade that has contributed in a meaningful way so far.  The hope is that Anthony Randolph, who is now playing, will get into playing shape quickly and start to reach his massive potential even more quickly. 

How would you assess the first nine games of the Knicks season?  What do you hope to see as the season progresses?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

Boston Celtics - Early Season Returns

The Celtics have gotten off to a solid 6-2 start and lead the rather weak Atlantic Division.  They suffered a bad loss at Cleveland in their second game but the other loss was at Dallas, certainly respectable.  They also have a couple of really good wins - Miami on opening night and at Oklahoma City.

Before the season I predicted the Celtics would finish 51-31.

Photo source: St. Groove

Team Stats
Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions): 104.4 (20th in the NBA) [107.7 in 2009]
Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 98.8 (3rd) [103.8 in 2009]
Rating Differential: 5.6 [3.9 in 2009]
Points Scored per Game: 97.9 (20th) [99.2 in 2009]
Points Allowed per Game: 92.6 (5th) [95.6 in 2009]
Pace (possessions per game): 91.3 [91.6 in 2009]

Player Stats

Rajon Rondo
Offensive Rating: 107 (111 in 2009)
Defensive Rating: 96 (103)
PER: 20.7 (19.1)

Ray Allen
Offensive Rating: 107 (115)
Defensive Rating: 96 (108)
PER: 14.0 (15.2)

Paul Pierce
Offensive Rating: 113 (114)
Defensive Rating: 101 (105)
PER: 17.8 (18.2)

Kevin Garnett
Offensive Rating: 94 (112)
Defensive Rating: 93 (101)
PER: 15.8 (19.4)

Glen Davis
Offensive Rating: 120 (103)
Defensive Rating: 100 (106)
PER: 15.4 (11.5)

Shaquille O'Neal
Offensive Rating: 104 (104)
Defensive Rating: 101 (102)
PER: 13.7 (17.9)

Marquis Daniels
Offensive Rating: 116 (102)
Defensive Rating: 98 (107)
PER: 16.0 (9.6)

Jermaine O'Neal
Offensive Rating: 91 (108)
Defensive Rating: 97 (103)
PER: 9.1 (17.9)

Nate Robinson
Offensive Rating: 80 (104)
Defensive Rating: 105 (104)
PER: 2.4 (13.9)

Boston has excelled on the defensive end of the floor so far in 2010.  They've improved their Defensive Rating by five points over 2009-10.  The improvement is especially noticeable when Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen are on the floor.  Both have a Defensive Rating of 96.  Rondo improved from 103 and Allen from 108 last season.

Concerning for the Celtics is the drop in PER from the Big Three.  Paul Pierce's drop is a minimal 0.4 but Allen's is a more substantial 1.2 and Kevin Garnett's is a worrisome 3.6.  Garnett's field goal and free throw shooting percentages have dropped significantly over last season.  So has his assists rate even though he's playing more minutes.

The two O'Neal acquisitions have been somewhat of a letdown.  This is especially true for Jermaine whose PER has nearly been cut in half.  His shooting percentages have fallen even worse than Garnett's.

On the other hand, Glen Davis and Marquis Daniels have put in some excellent minutes off the bench.  Davis has a 20-point differential in his Offensive and Defensive Ratings while Daniels has an 18-point differential. 

Nate Robinson has struggled to provide productive minutes.  His 2.4 PER and -25 differential are atrocious.  Of course, he can't seem to throw the ball in the ocean.

What have you seen from the Celtics that you've liked or not liked so far this season?  What do you think they need to focus on to keep improving and earn a high seed in the playoffs?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.

What's Gone Wrong with the NBA's 0-3 Teams?

It's almost a full week into the NBA season.  There are five teams in the NBA that have gotten off to an 0-3 start - Charlotte Bobcats, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers and Philadelphia 76ers.  While that is certainly not a death sentence, it's never a good idea to dig yourself a hole at the beginning of the season.  Each team has its own reasons for its slow start and different levels of hope for the future.

Phot source: lanchongzi

Charlotte Bobcats
How'd they get to 0-3?
101-86 at Dallas, 104-101 to Indiana at home and 98-88 at Milwaukee

What's gone wrong?
The Bobcats are 29th in the NBA in turnovers, averaging 18.3 per game.  That is especially bad because they play at the 29th slowest pace in the NBA.  Gerald Wallace is the biggest offender.  He's averaging five turnovers a game.  Charlotte is also allowing more than seven points more per game than they did last season.

Sound the Alarm - One Time
The only concerning loss of the three was the one to Indiana at home.  A big part of their success last year can be attributed to their ability to defend their home court.  They were 31-10 in Charlotte.  Still, D.J. Augustin has gotten off to a good start, as has Tyrus Thomas.  Those two will be the keys to the Bobcats' success this season.  Also, the last couple of playoff spots in the Eastern Conference will likely go to teams with sub-.500 records.

Detroit Pistons
How'd they get to 0-3?
101-98 at New Jersey, 105-104 to Oklahoma City at home and 101-91 at Chicago

What's gone wrong?
The Pistons cannot finish the game.  They are dead last in the NBA in 4th quarter scoring differential at -7.3.  They've also struggled to start the offense by taking the ball from the other team.  At 4.8%, their steal percentage is ranked 27th in the NBA.  Individually they are not getting good minutes from Richard Hamilton, Austin Daye or Tracy McGrady.

Sound the Alarm - Two Times
Detroit played well at home against OKC but the trend of blowing leads in the 4th quarter is a dangerous one.  Hamilton seems to have dropped even another level down and they are getting nothing from McGrady.  Like the Bobcats, the Pistons have the advantage of playing in the Eastern Conference.  They need to get right quickly and win some of the key games that lie in their November schedule.

Houston Rockets
How'd they get to 0-3?
112-110 at Lakers, 132-128 at Golden State and 107-94 to Denver at home

What's gone wrong?
The Rockets have been trying to work Yao back to health but he hasn't helped when he's been on the floor.  He was a team worst -19 against the Nuggets and worst among the starters at -6 against the Lakers.  They have also posted the NBA's worst defensive efficiency allowing 1.116 points per possession.

Sound the Alarm - Three Times
There is very little margin for error in the Western Conference.  Last season the eighth seed had 50 wins and it's very likely that you may need 50 wins to make the Western Conference playoffs again in 2010-11.  Houston has had some good individual play from Luis Scola and Kevin Martin so far.  But they will need a total team commitment to improving the defense if they are going to earn a playoff spot.

Los Angeles Clippers
How'd they get to 0-3?
98-88 to Portland at home, 109-91 at Golden State and 99-83 to Dallas at home

What's gone wrong?
It's the offense.  The Clippers are last in the NBA in offensive efficiency at .91 points per possession, last in points per game at 87.3 and 29th in scoring margin at -14.7.  This is largely a result of their last in the NBA field goal percentage of 37.7.  The Clippers are equal opportunity offenders.  The highest shooting percentage for a player taking more than four shots per game is 42. 

Sound the Alarm - Four Times
Playoffs was a word thrown around for the Clippers before the season started.  Three games in that is a pipe dream.  They have struggled severely to put the ball in the hoop.  Their next six games are home against San Antonio and Oklahoma City and then on the road at Denver, Utah, New Orleans and San Antonio.  They are staring 0-9 in the face.

Philadelphia 76ers
How'd they get to 0-3?
97-87 to Miami at home, 104-101 to Atlanta at home and 99-86 at Indiana

What's gone wrong?
For the Sixers it is the third quarter.  On average they are giving up 10 more points than they score in the third quarter.  This was especially damaging in what should be considered their most winnable game, at Indiana.  They came out of the locker room at half time tied at 51.  When the third quarter ended they were down by 12.  Individually they need Jrue Holiday to play better.  The second-year point guard is shooting less than 33% and barely exceeding his turnovers with assists.

Sound the Alarm - One Time
The next three games for Philadelphia are winnable so they could be at .500 in a week.  Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams, Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young are all playing good basketball.  If Holiday can pick his game up and the 76ers can find a way to improve their performance in the third quarter they can contend for an Eastern Conference playoff spot.

What are your observations on these five teams?  What would you prescribe to help them get more wins?  Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.