Here are my full projected standings for the Western Conference:
Pacific
Los Angeles Lakers 54-28
Phoenix Suns 48-34
Los Angeles Clippers 39-43
Sacramento Kings 31-51
Golden State Warriors 26-56
Northwest
Portland Trail Blazers 56-26
Oklahoma City Thunder 54-28
Denver Nuggets 50-32
Utah Jazz 49-33
Minnesota Timberwolves 16-66
Southwest
Dallas Mavericks 53-29
San Antonio Spurs 52-30
Houston Rockets 49-33
New Orleans Hornets 43-39
Memphis Grizzlies 40-42
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Memphis Grizzlies - Better or Worse
In most seasons Memphis would have gotten all the pub as a hugely improved team. But with the Thunder's win total jumping by 27 in 2009-10 the Grizzlies' season over season gain of 16 wins didn't cause the waves it would have otherwise. Still, it was a marked improvement for a team that had only accumulated 68 wins over the previous three seasons. That's especially true when you consider that Memphis was 35-32 after the "Allen Iverson Experiment" crashed and burned. The Grizzlies made minimal moves in the offseason so they'll rely predominantly on player development for a better season in 2010-11. Will that be enough?
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Mike Conley (#35 PG, Level 7), Marcus Williams (#65 PG, Below level)
2010 - Mike Conley (#35 PG, Level 7), Acie Law (Not enough minutes to qualify)
This may be the season that Conley has to prove that he can be a better than average point guard. The biggest problem with Conley is that he has not really improved statistically over the course of his three years in the NBA. I think that means he is who he is. I don't expect Law to deliver any meaningful contributions off the bench. Net wins - 0.
Shooting Guard
2009 - O.J. Mayo (#28 SG, Level 6), Ronnie Brewer (#32 SG, Level 7)
2010 - O.J. Mayo (#28 SG, Level 6), Tony Allen (#25 SG, Level 6)
He's been tagged as having some type of breakout season last year, but in reality Mayo was not that productive. He did improve his field-goal shooting percentage. Most of his other statistics were relatively flat. Allen is an excellent defender and can dunk. He's very awkward on offense though. I'll give a slight uptick here for the addition of Allen but I'm not sold that Mayo is interested in getting better. Net wins - 1/2.
Small Forward
2009 - Rudy Gay (#13 SF, Level 4), Sam Young (#58 SG, Level 9)
2010 - Rudy Gay (#13 SF, Level 4), Sam Young (#58 SG, Level 9)
I don't mean to sound like a broke record, it's just the truth. Here's another story of a player who's career arc has been essentially flat over the past few years. In fact, last season Gay put up the lowest three-point shooting percentage of his four years in the NBA. He leveraged a pretty good season when compared to other NBA small forwards into a max contract. Young was a decent reserve in his rookie year. Now that Gay has his big contract I think he's going to slide back a touch. Net losses - 1/2.
Power Forward
2009 - Zach Randolph (#9 PF, Level 3), DeMarre Carroll (#68 PF, Below level)
2010 - Zach Randolph (#9 PF, Level 3), Darrell Arthur (Not enough minutes to qualify)
In a huge surprise, Randolph had one of the most productive seasons of his 9-year career. He put up nearly 21 points and 12 rebounds while playing 38 minutes per game over 81 games. It was a great year and one from which I think he can only go down from in 2010-11. Arthur is really an unknown at this point. Net losses - 1.
Center
2009 - Marc Gasol (#10 C, Level 3), Hasheem Thabeet (#30 C, Level 6)
2010 - Marc Gasol (#10 C, Level 3), Hasheem Thabeet (#30 C, Level 6)
Gasol was excellent last season, shooting 58 percent from the field and earning his way to a top 10 ranking among NBA centers. Thabeet took a lot of heat early in his rookie season for being sent down to the D-League. When all was said and done he was not horrible. I like the potential for Gasol's continued development this season. Net wins - 1.
Overall
Three areas where the Grizzlies really struggled in 2009-10 were three-point shooting, assists and turnovers. They did nothing to improve any of those three areas with the possible exception of the drafting of Xavier Henry helping them behind the arc. With the mix of players they have I see dissension written all over this team in 2010-11. They also will not be able to sneak up on their opponents.
The Grizzlies finished last season at 40-42. As noted above, I have them adding one win at center and half a win at shooting guard while staying even at point guard and losing one win at power forward and half a win at small forward.
In the final verdict Memphis is the SAME. As they are currently constructed I project that they will again finish 40-42.
Am I being too harsh on the Grizzlies? Will their young players break out this season? Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: Rennett Stowe |
2009 - Mike Conley (#35 PG, Level 7), Marcus Williams (#65 PG, Below level)
2010 - Mike Conley (#35 PG, Level 7), Acie Law (Not enough minutes to qualify)
This may be the season that Conley has to prove that he can be a better than average point guard. The biggest problem with Conley is that he has not really improved statistically over the course of his three years in the NBA. I think that means he is who he is. I don't expect Law to deliver any meaningful contributions off the bench. Net wins - 0.
Shooting Guard
2009 - O.J. Mayo (#28 SG, Level 6), Ronnie Brewer (#32 SG, Level 7)
2010 - O.J. Mayo (#28 SG, Level 6), Tony Allen (#25 SG, Level 6)
He's been tagged as having some type of breakout season last year, but in reality Mayo was not that productive. He did improve his field-goal shooting percentage. Most of his other statistics were relatively flat. Allen is an excellent defender and can dunk. He's very awkward on offense though. I'll give a slight uptick here for the addition of Allen but I'm not sold that Mayo is interested in getting better. Net wins - 1/2.
Small Forward
2009 - Rudy Gay (#13 SF, Level 4), Sam Young (#58 SG, Level 9)
2010 - Rudy Gay (#13 SF, Level 4), Sam Young (#58 SG, Level 9)
I don't mean to sound like a broke record, it's just the truth. Here's another story of a player who's career arc has been essentially flat over the past few years. In fact, last season Gay put up the lowest three-point shooting percentage of his four years in the NBA. He leveraged a pretty good season when compared to other NBA small forwards into a max contract. Young was a decent reserve in his rookie year. Now that Gay has his big contract I think he's going to slide back a touch. Net losses - 1/2.
Power Forward
2009 - Zach Randolph (#9 PF, Level 3), DeMarre Carroll (#68 PF, Below level)
2010 - Zach Randolph (#9 PF, Level 3), Darrell Arthur (Not enough minutes to qualify)
In a huge surprise, Randolph had one of the most productive seasons of his 9-year career. He put up nearly 21 points and 12 rebounds while playing 38 minutes per game over 81 games. It was a great year and one from which I think he can only go down from in 2010-11. Arthur is really an unknown at this point. Net losses - 1.
Center
2009 - Marc Gasol (#10 C, Level 3), Hasheem Thabeet (#30 C, Level 6)
2010 - Marc Gasol (#10 C, Level 3), Hasheem Thabeet (#30 C, Level 6)
Gasol was excellent last season, shooting 58 percent from the field and earning his way to a top 10 ranking among NBA centers. Thabeet took a lot of heat early in his rookie season for being sent down to the D-League. When all was said and done he was not horrible. I like the potential for Gasol's continued development this season. Net wins - 1.
Overall
Three areas where the Grizzlies really struggled in 2009-10 were three-point shooting, assists and turnovers. They did nothing to improve any of those three areas with the possible exception of the drafting of Xavier Henry helping them behind the arc. With the mix of players they have I see dissension written all over this team in 2010-11. They also will not be able to sneak up on their opponents.
The Grizzlies finished last season at 40-42. As noted above, I have them adding one win at center and half a win at shooting guard while staying even at point guard and losing one win at power forward and half a win at small forward.
In the final verdict Memphis is the SAME. As they are currently constructed I project that they will again finish 40-42.
Am I being too harsh on the Grizzlies? Will their young players break out this season? Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
New Orleans Hornets - Better or Worse
After two really good years the Hornets took a step back last season. Of course, a large reason for that slide into reverse was the injury that held Chris Paul to only 45 games played. While he was out New Orleans was carried by the always steady David West and the play of two rookies, Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton. The Hornets obviously thought enough of both of the guards to carry them on the roster but they could not have expected them to produce to the level that they did.
The offseason was filled with much controversy as Chris Paul apparently demanded a trade but then did not. This put brand new GM Dell Demps in the awkward position of trying to win now without the assets to do so. He was able to pull off a trade, giving up new stallion Collison for the opportunity to unload James Posey's bad contract and get a good answer for a bad gap at small forward in Trevor Ariza. What will 2010-11 hold for the Hornets?
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Chris Paul (#3 PG, Level 1), Darren Collison (#31 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Chris Paul (#3 PG, Level 1), Jerryd Bayless (#39 PG, Level 8)
I consider Paul a top 10 player when healthy and probably even top five. His injury crushed New Orleans' chances in 2009-10. Even while playing with the after effects Paul was able to put up the third most productive season among NBA point guards. The loss of Collison will hurt a little but Bayless should be a good pickup who can add some additional scoring. Net wins - 3.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Morris Peterson (#72 SG, Below level), Marcus Thornton (#20 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Marco Belinelli (#36 SG, Level 7), Marcus Thornton (#20 SG, Level 5)
Peterson was horrible last year while Thornton was a breath of fresh air. He'll need to keep developing in 2010-11 if the Hornets are going to be in playoff contention. Belinelli is a mystery. He's shot 39% from behind the arc in three years of limited minutes. Still, he's all but guaranteed to be more productive than Peterson. Net wins - 2.
Small Forward
2009 - Peja Stojakovic (#41 SF, Level 9), Julian Wright (#42 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Trevor Ariza (#25 SF, Level 6), Peja Stojakovic (#41 SF, Level 9)
Houston soured on Ariza whose field-goal percentage dropped precipitously last season. As they say, one man's trash is another man's treasure. This is the case for Ariza, who fills a big hole in the New Orleans lineup. Stojakovic should be more effective in smaller minutes as a long range shooter off the pine. Net wins - 2.
Power Forward
2009 - David West (#23 PF, Level 5), Darius Songaila (#65 PF, Below level)
2010 - David West (#23 PF, Level 5), Jason Smith (Not enough minutes to rank)
West's numbers dropped slightly last season but it's due more to a decrease in minutes played than anything else. Still, his curve is at the top and flat at best and heading downward at worst. Smith is just a body. Net losses - 1/2.
Center
2009 - Emeka Okafor (#25 C, Level 5)
2010 - Emeka Okafor (#25 C, Level 5), Aaron Gray (Not enough minutes to rank)
Okafor has played all 82 games in each of the last three seasons. That's a positive. The negative is that his production levels have decreased. Gray was a productive back up in very limited minutes last season. The trend continues with Okafor. Net losses - 1/2.
Overall
I cannot emphasize enough how important Paul's health is for this team. They have a handful of nice developmental pieces in Ariza, Thornton, Bayless and Belinelli. If those four can continue to develop while West and Okafor maintain their levels of production then the Hornets should be in the running for the final Western Conference playoff spot. Of course, the other thing to watch for is what happens with Paul. If New Orleans struggles badly out of the gate then his eye will surely wander and Demps may want to seek out a trade to get the maximum value for such a huge asset.
The 2009-10 season ended with New Orleans at 37-45. As I noted above, I have them adding three wins at point guard, two at shooting guard and two at small forward while dropping a half at power forward and a half at center.
In the final verdict the Hornets are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I predict they will post a 43-39 record this season.
What do you think? Will the Hornets be better or worse this season? How will that reflect on their record? Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.
The offseason was filled with much controversy as Chris Paul apparently demanded a trade but then did not. This put brand new GM Dell Demps in the awkward position of trying to win now without the assets to do so. He was able to pull off a trade, giving up new stallion Collison for the opportunity to unload James Posey's bad contract and get a good answer for a bad gap at small forward in Trevor Ariza. What will 2010-11 hold for the Hornets?
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: Mr. Littlehand |
2009 - Chris Paul (#3 PG, Level 1), Darren Collison (#31 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Chris Paul (#3 PG, Level 1), Jerryd Bayless (#39 PG, Level 8)
I consider Paul a top 10 player when healthy and probably even top five. His injury crushed New Orleans' chances in 2009-10. Even while playing with the after effects Paul was able to put up the third most productive season among NBA point guards. The loss of Collison will hurt a little but Bayless should be a good pickup who can add some additional scoring. Net wins - 3.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Morris Peterson (#72 SG, Below level), Marcus Thornton (#20 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Marco Belinelli (#36 SG, Level 7), Marcus Thornton (#20 SG, Level 5)
Peterson was horrible last year while Thornton was a breath of fresh air. He'll need to keep developing in 2010-11 if the Hornets are going to be in playoff contention. Belinelli is a mystery. He's shot 39% from behind the arc in three years of limited minutes. Still, he's all but guaranteed to be more productive than Peterson. Net wins - 2.
Small Forward
2009 - Peja Stojakovic (#41 SF, Level 9), Julian Wright (#42 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Trevor Ariza (#25 SF, Level 6), Peja Stojakovic (#41 SF, Level 9)
Houston soured on Ariza whose field-goal percentage dropped precipitously last season. As they say, one man's trash is another man's treasure. This is the case for Ariza, who fills a big hole in the New Orleans lineup. Stojakovic should be more effective in smaller minutes as a long range shooter off the pine. Net wins - 2.
Power Forward
2009 - David West (#23 PF, Level 5), Darius Songaila (#65 PF, Below level)
2010 - David West (#23 PF, Level 5), Jason Smith (Not enough minutes to rank)
West's numbers dropped slightly last season but it's due more to a decrease in minutes played than anything else. Still, his curve is at the top and flat at best and heading downward at worst. Smith is just a body. Net losses - 1/2.
Center
2009 - Emeka Okafor (#25 C, Level 5)
2010 - Emeka Okafor (#25 C, Level 5), Aaron Gray (Not enough minutes to rank)
Okafor has played all 82 games in each of the last three seasons. That's a positive. The negative is that his production levels have decreased. Gray was a productive back up in very limited minutes last season. The trend continues with Okafor. Net losses - 1/2.
Overall
I cannot emphasize enough how important Paul's health is for this team. They have a handful of nice developmental pieces in Ariza, Thornton, Bayless and Belinelli. If those four can continue to develop while West and Okafor maintain their levels of production then the Hornets should be in the running for the final Western Conference playoff spot. Of course, the other thing to watch for is what happens with Paul. If New Orleans struggles badly out of the gate then his eye will surely wander and Demps may want to seek out a trade to get the maximum value for such a huge asset.
The 2009-10 season ended with New Orleans at 37-45. As I noted above, I have them adding three wins at point guard, two at shooting guard and two at small forward while dropping a half at power forward and a half at center.
In the final verdict the Hornets are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I predict they will post a 43-39 record this season.
What do you think? Will the Hornets be better or worse this season? How will that reflect on their record? Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.
Dallas Mavericks - Better or Worse
With 10 50-win seasons in a row the Mavericks have one of the most impressive streaks in professional sports. A large part of the credit for that belongs to their owner Mark Cuban who clearly is heavily invested in winning. Another chunk should certainly go to Dirk Nowitzki. He's been about as good as anybody over the last decade and has played in a minimum of 76 games in each of those 10 seasons. Dallas was excellent again in 2009-10, piling up 55 wins, which was good enough for the two seed in the Western Conference. Then they went down hard in the playoffs, losing to the Spurs in the first round. The offseason did not bring much change so the Mavs will be putting most of the same pieces back out on the floor in 2010-11. Will that be enough to continue their run of 50-win seasons? Let's take a look at their lineup.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Jason Kidd (#4 PG, Level 1), J.J. Barea (#51 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Jason Kidd (#4 PG, Level 1), J.J. Barea (#51 PG, Level 10)
At 37, Kidd is winning the fight over Father Time. His performance last season was good enough to rank him in the very top level of NBA point guards and he has built himself into an excellent three-point shooter in his time in Dallas. Barea is only okay as a backup. I can't see Kidd keeping up with his pace from last season. Net losses 1 1/2.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Caron Butler (#28 SF, Level 6), Jason Terry (#14 SG, Level 4), Rodrigue Beaubois (#9, Level 3)
2010 - Caron Butler (#28 SF, Level 6), Jason Terry (#14 SG, Level 4), Rodrigue Beaubois (#9, Level 3)
Even though they really have four shooting guards on the roster, they start a true small forward, Butler, at the two. Butler was good but not great after he joined the Mavericks last season. Terry was again excellent off the bench while Beaubois was surprisingly productive in limited minutes his rookie season. I like a little bump in production at this position as Butler gets more comfortable in Dallas. Net wins - 1.
Small Forward
2009 - Shawn Marion (#12 SF, Level 4)
2010 - Shawn Marion (#12 SF, Level 4)
Marion is no longer the matrix of old but is still among the top half of small forwards in the NBA. What's really concerning is that his scoring average and rebounding were the lowest they've been since his rookie season of 1999-2000. Butler backs up Marion at the three. I'm projecting more deterioration in Marion's game. Net losses - 1 1/2.
Power Forward
2009 - Dirk Nowitzki (#3 PF, Level 2)
2010 - Dirk Nowitzki (#3 PF, Level 2)
Nowitzki was stellar again in 2009-10. I do think his 12 years in the NBA will start to wear on him this season, just slightly. Net losses - 1/2.
Center
2009 - Erick Dampier (#18 C, Level 5), Brendan Haywood (#13 C, Level 4)
2010 - Brendan Haywood (#13 C, Level 4), Tyson Chandler (#34 C, Level 7)
While not a major stat producer, Dampier put in productive minutes by knowing his role and fulfilling it well. Haywood was a solid pickup for the Mavericks who can contribute on both ends of the floor. Chandler has been plagued by injuries over the last two years. If he can stay healthy he should contribute good minutes as an athletic defensive stopper and alley-oop target for Kidd. Technically the Mavericks should lose a game or two here based on the 2009-10 rankings, but I think they'll be a little better over the course of this season. Net wins - 1/2.
Overall
One of the big concerns for the Mavericks is their depth. They have a lot of shooting guards on the roster but could be considered thin at every other position when you factor in Chandler's recent injury history. Age is another issue that could bring them down. Ultimately I think they'll have one more year of strong success with the current group. Of course, as one of the more active front offices in the league it is completely feasible that the roster they have at the end of the season will be quite different from the current one.
Last season the Mavericks had a 55-27 record. As I documented above, I have them picking up one win at shooting guard and one half a win at center while losing one and a half at point guard and small forward and one half at power forward.
In the final verdict the Mavericks are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I predict they will be 53-29 in 2010-11. So their worse is still pretty good.
How many games do you think the Mavericks will win this season? Post a comment below and let me know how many and why.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: dherrera_96 |
Point Guard
2009 - Jason Kidd (#4 PG, Level 1), J.J. Barea (#51 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Jason Kidd (#4 PG, Level 1), J.J. Barea (#51 PG, Level 10)
At 37, Kidd is winning the fight over Father Time. His performance last season was good enough to rank him in the very top level of NBA point guards and he has built himself into an excellent three-point shooter in his time in Dallas. Barea is only okay as a backup. I can't see Kidd keeping up with his pace from last season. Net losses 1 1/2.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Caron Butler (#28 SF, Level 6), Jason Terry (#14 SG, Level 4), Rodrigue Beaubois (#9, Level 3)
2010 - Caron Butler (#28 SF, Level 6), Jason Terry (#14 SG, Level 4), Rodrigue Beaubois (#9, Level 3)
Even though they really have four shooting guards on the roster, they start a true small forward, Butler, at the two. Butler was good but not great after he joined the Mavericks last season. Terry was again excellent off the bench while Beaubois was surprisingly productive in limited minutes his rookie season. I like a little bump in production at this position as Butler gets more comfortable in Dallas. Net wins - 1.
Small Forward
2009 - Shawn Marion (#12 SF, Level 4)
2010 - Shawn Marion (#12 SF, Level 4)
Marion is no longer the matrix of old but is still among the top half of small forwards in the NBA. What's really concerning is that his scoring average and rebounding were the lowest they've been since his rookie season of 1999-2000. Butler backs up Marion at the three. I'm projecting more deterioration in Marion's game. Net losses - 1 1/2.
Power Forward
2009 - Dirk Nowitzki (#3 PF, Level 2)
2010 - Dirk Nowitzki (#3 PF, Level 2)
Nowitzki was stellar again in 2009-10. I do think his 12 years in the NBA will start to wear on him this season, just slightly. Net losses - 1/2.
Center
2009 - Erick Dampier (#18 C, Level 5), Brendan Haywood (#13 C, Level 4)
2010 - Brendan Haywood (#13 C, Level 4), Tyson Chandler (#34 C, Level 7)
While not a major stat producer, Dampier put in productive minutes by knowing his role and fulfilling it well. Haywood was a solid pickup for the Mavericks who can contribute on both ends of the floor. Chandler has been plagued by injuries over the last two years. If he can stay healthy he should contribute good minutes as an athletic defensive stopper and alley-oop target for Kidd. Technically the Mavericks should lose a game or two here based on the 2009-10 rankings, but I think they'll be a little better over the course of this season. Net wins - 1/2.
Overall
One of the big concerns for the Mavericks is their depth. They have a lot of shooting guards on the roster but could be considered thin at every other position when you factor in Chandler's recent injury history. Age is another issue that could bring them down. Ultimately I think they'll have one more year of strong success with the current group. Of course, as one of the more active front offices in the league it is completely feasible that the roster they have at the end of the season will be quite different from the current one.
Last season the Mavericks had a 55-27 record. As I documented above, I have them picking up one win at shooting guard and one half a win at center while losing one and a half at point guard and small forward and one half at power forward.
In the final verdict the Mavericks are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I predict they will be 53-29 in 2010-11. So their worse is still pretty good.
How many games do you think the Mavericks will win this season? Post a comment below and let me know how many and why.
San Antonio Spurs - Better or Worse
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| Photo source: neth_ra |
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Tony Parker (#20 PG, Level 5), George Hill (#19 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Tony Parker (#20 PG, Level 5), George Hill (#19 PG, Level 4)
Could it be that Parker is on the downside of his career at only 28? Have injuries and so many playoff games taken a heavy toll on his body? Last season, his scoring average was the lowest it has been in six years and his field-goal shooting percentage dropped to a level it hasn't been at in five years. Luckily for the Spurs, second-year man Hill was there to pick up some of the slack. I expect Parker to lose another step this season with Hill's development making up for it. Net wins - 0.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Keith Bogans (#61 SG, Level 10), Manu Ginobili (#1 SG, Level 1)
2010 - Manu Ginobili (#1 SG, Level 1), James Anderson (Rookie)
Ginobili was spectacular last season, ranking as the most productive shooting guard in the NBA. At 33 the only direction for him to go is down. Anderson is the best bet to provide shooting off the bench. Net losses - 1 1/2.
Small Forward
2009 - Richard Jefferson (#17 SF, Level 5), Matt Bonner (#20 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Richard Jefferson (#17 SF, Level 5), Matt Bonner (#20 PF, Level 5)
He took a lot of heat and the move was called a failure, but in reality Jefferson still had a decent season. Bonner is a long distance threat who can work in at both forward positions. I think San Antonio will get a little bump up from Jefferson this season. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Antonio McDyess (#53 PF, Level 8), DeJuan Blair (#18 PF, Level 5)
2010 - Antonio McDyess (#53 PF, Level 8), DeJuan Blair (#18 PF, Level 5)
McDyess was not very productive as the most frequent starter at the four. Blair shocked NBA observers with his effectiveness in his rookie tilt. He shot a robust 55.6% from the field and averaged 6.4 rebounds per game in just over 18 minutes. I think he'll continue to improve in 2010-11. Net wins - 1/2.
Center
2009 - Tim Duncan (#2 C, Level 1)
2010 - Tim Duncan (#2 C, Level 1), Tiago Splitter (Rookie)
Another top level season was turned in by Duncan although it probably went under the radar even more than usual. His PER was actually better than Dwight Howard's. Splitter is the big unknown. The Spanish League MVP is expected to be a big contributor to the Spurs in 2010-11. The hope is that he will free Duncan up to play the four and keep McDyess off the floor for the majority of the game. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and San Antonio a nice little bump up at the five. Net wins - 2.
Overall
I wouldn't suggest betting against the Spurs but I have a hard time seeing them making a big jump back up in the standings. Their age started to show last season and they were not able to integrate Jefferson into the team in a meaningful way. To climb back up into the upper echelon of the Western Conference they'll need Parker to be healthy and better, Jefferson to be closer to the player they thought they were getting last offseason and Splitter to be an impact post player.
San Antonio played to a 50-32 record last season. As noted above, I have them picking up two wins at center, one at small forward and a half at power forward while staying even at point guard and losing one and a half at shooting guard.
In the final verdict the Spurs are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I predict they'll finish the 2010-11 season at 52-30.
Does that record sound about right to you? If you think I'm off let me know why in the comment section below.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Houston Rockets - Better or Worse
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| Photo source: the_junes |
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Aaron Brooks (#27 PG, Level 6), Kyle Lowry (#17 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Aaron Brooks (#27 PG, Level 6), Kyle Lowry (#17 PG, Level 4)
No change in the two deep at the point guard for Houston. Brooks was outstanding in his third season. Cutting down his turnovers will help him become even more effective. Lowry was quite good as well, although his shooting percentage was subpar, especially from behind the arc. I like a little improvement from Brooks in 2010-11. Net wins - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Kevin Martin (#12 SG, Level 4), Trevor Ariza (#25 SF, Level 6)
2010 - Kevin Martin (#12 SG, Level 4), Courtney Lee (#42 SG, Level 7)
I'm counting Ariza as a shooting guard because he essentially started most of the season at that position before the trade for Martin. Ariza shot poorly but was still productive because of his defense and ability to rebound and pass. Martin can certainly light it up but his recent injury history is a concern. Lee struggled last year in New Jersey but his performance should be improved in Houston. I'm also going to factor in something close to a full season from Martin. Net wins - 2 1/2.
Small Forward
2009 - Shane Battier (#29 SF, Level 7), Chase Budinger (#21 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Shane Battier (#29 SF, Level 7), Chase Budinger (#21 SF, Level 5)
A troubling trend has taken hold with Battier - his field-goal percentage has decreased in each of the last four seasons. He's still a productive player, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Budinger get the majority of the playing time at the three in 2010-11. Budinger was effective in limited minutes as a rookie, finishing eight spots above Battier in my small forward rankings. Net wins - 1/2.
Power Forward
2009 - Luis Scola (#29 PF, Level 6), Jordan Hill (#45 PF, Level 7)
2010 - Luis Scola (#29 PF, Level 6), Patrick Patterson (Rookie)
Scola was solid in his third year in the NBA. He's also been very dependable, having played in all 246 possible regular season games. Patterson may be as ready as any NBA rookie not named John Wall to come right in and produce. Still, I think Scola's production level reached the ceiling last season and that this position will be even. Net wins - 0.
Center
2009 - Chuck Hayes (#44 C, Level 8), David Andersen (#52 C, Level 10)
2010 - Yao Ming (missed 2009-10 with injury), Brad Miller (#43 C, Level 8)
Even though his playing time will be limited to 24 minutes per game and he will likely sit out one game during each of Houston's back-to-backs, Yao's return from injury is critical to the Rockets' potential for success. Miller has lost a lot since his heyday but is still a good passer and as a savvy veteran can find ways to put points on the board. Yao's impact will be muted by his limited playing time, but should still provide a boost. Net wins - 3.
Overall
Playing small at so many positions last season, the Rockets struggled with rebounding, blocks and getting blocked. That will change with Yao back in the lineup. Ultimately the key to Houston's season will be health. To reach their higher levels of possible production in 2010-11 they need Martin and Yao to stay healthy. As long as they can do so, the Rockets should be able to take advantage of their depth and have a solid season.
The Rockets finished last season with a 42-40 record. As I documented above, I have them picking up three wins at center, two and a half at shooting guard, one at point guard and half at small forward while staying even at power forward.
In the final verdict the Rockets are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I project them to have a 49-33 record this season.
What are your thoughts on the Rockets? Can Yao stay healthy? What record do you expect them to have in 2010-11. Let me know by posting a comment below.
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Minnesota Timberwolves - Better or Worse
For all the attention the Miami Heat got for making huge moves toward becoming a dynasty, the Timberwolves got nearly the same amount for making moves that seem to be aiming them in the exact opposite direction. Minnesota has been miserable the last three years, putting up a cumulative record of 61-185. Their obsession with point guards at the 2009 NBA draft transitioned into an obsession with small forwards at the 2010 NBA draft. Then they traded away their most talented offensive player (Al Jefferson) for a whole lot of nothing. Will the Timberwolves be as bad as most everybody expects this upcoming season? Let's take a look at the key players in the rotation.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Jonny Flynn (#60 PG, Below level), Ramon Sessions (#49 PG, Level 9)
2010 - Jonny Flynn (#60 PG, Below level), Luke Ridnour (#8 PG, Level 2)
Unfortunately, Flynn did not have a good rookie season and probably worse, he is mismatched for the triangle offense of coach Kurt Rambis. Ridnour had a shockingly productive year in Milwaukee. Ridnour will start while Flynn is injured at the beginning of the season. I would not be surprised to see Ridnour put the clamps on the starting job. There is an improvement here, but I don't think there's any chance Ridnour plays to the same level he did last season. Net wins - 2.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Corey Brewer (#66 SG, Below level), Wayne Ellington (#71 SG, Below level)
2010 - Corey Brewer (#66 SG, Below level), Martell Webster (#31 SF, Level 7)
Minnesota got really poor production from the shooting guard position in 2009-10. Brewer is a good defender and a decent three-point shooter, but little more. The addition of Webster should help here, especially with his three-point shooting prowess. Net wins - 1 1/2.
Small Forward
2009 - Ryan Gomes (#46 SF, Level 10), Damien Wilkins (#45 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Michael Beasley (#38 PF, Level 6), Wesley Johnson (Rookie)
By now you are probably seeing a trend in the Timberwolves 2009-10 lineup - sub-par performance. If Beasley comes anywhere close to reaching the potential that had NBA GMs considering him a top two pick then Minnesota GM David Kahn should be arrested for first degree larceny for getting him for a second round draft pick. I'd love to say that I think that Wesley Johnson will be a top level pro, but I just don't think he'll be more than an athletic role player. Net wins - 1 1/2.
Power Forward
2009 - Al Jefferson (#23 C, Level 5), Kevin Love (#11 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Kevin Love (#11 PF, Level 4), Anthony Tolliver (#39 PF, Level 8)
Love was highly effective in limited minutes. Very impressively, he averaged 11 rebounds in less than 29 minutes per game. Tolliver was pretty good with Golden State last season. Still, the loss of Jefferson will hurt at the four. Net losses - 2.
Center
2009 - Ryan Hollins (#55 C, Below level), Darko Milicic (#51 C, Level 9)
2010 - Darko Milicic (#51 C, Level 9), Nikola Pekovic (Rookie)
Not sure what it was, but something the Timberwolves saw in Milicic encouraged them enough to sign him to a long-term contract. Pekovic is a 24-year old rookie from Serbia. I'm going to drop the T-Wolves down a couple wins here too because of the loss of Jefferson. Net losses - 2.
Overall
The addition of Ridnour, Webster and Beasley should help the Timberwolves perform better on the court even if it doesn't mean a lot more wins. They were horrible defensively last season and I don't think that any of those three will make a big difference on that end of the floor. It also doesn't help Minnesota that they play in a division with four likely playoff teams.
The Timberwolves were 15-67 in 2009-10. As I've noted above I have them picking up two wins at point guard and one and a half at shooting guard and small forward while losing two at power forward and center.
In the final verdict the Timberwolves are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I project them to put up a 16-66 record in 2010-11.
How do you think Minnesota will be this season? Do you think they'll do better or worse than I predict? Let me know by posting a comment below.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: jmagnusphoto |
Point Guard
2009 - Jonny Flynn (#60 PG, Below level), Ramon Sessions (#49 PG, Level 9)
2010 - Jonny Flynn (#60 PG, Below level), Luke Ridnour (#8 PG, Level 2)
Unfortunately, Flynn did not have a good rookie season and probably worse, he is mismatched for the triangle offense of coach Kurt Rambis. Ridnour had a shockingly productive year in Milwaukee. Ridnour will start while Flynn is injured at the beginning of the season. I would not be surprised to see Ridnour put the clamps on the starting job. There is an improvement here, but I don't think there's any chance Ridnour plays to the same level he did last season. Net wins - 2.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Corey Brewer (#66 SG, Below level), Wayne Ellington (#71 SG, Below level)
2010 - Corey Brewer (#66 SG, Below level), Martell Webster (#31 SF, Level 7)
Minnesota got really poor production from the shooting guard position in 2009-10. Brewer is a good defender and a decent three-point shooter, but little more. The addition of Webster should help here, especially with his three-point shooting prowess. Net wins - 1 1/2.
Small Forward
2009 - Ryan Gomes (#46 SF, Level 10), Damien Wilkins (#45 SF, Level 9)
2010 - Michael Beasley (#38 PF, Level 6), Wesley Johnson (Rookie)
By now you are probably seeing a trend in the Timberwolves 2009-10 lineup - sub-par performance. If Beasley comes anywhere close to reaching the potential that had NBA GMs considering him a top two pick then Minnesota GM David Kahn should be arrested for first degree larceny for getting him for a second round draft pick. I'd love to say that I think that Wesley Johnson will be a top level pro, but I just don't think he'll be more than an athletic role player. Net wins - 1 1/2.
Power Forward
2009 - Al Jefferson (#23 C, Level 5), Kevin Love (#11 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Kevin Love (#11 PF, Level 4), Anthony Tolliver (#39 PF, Level 8)
Love was highly effective in limited minutes. Very impressively, he averaged 11 rebounds in less than 29 minutes per game. Tolliver was pretty good with Golden State last season. Still, the loss of Jefferson will hurt at the four. Net losses - 2.
Center
2009 - Ryan Hollins (#55 C, Below level), Darko Milicic (#51 C, Level 9)
2010 - Darko Milicic (#51 C, Level 9), Nikola Pekovic (Rookie)
Not sure what it was, but something the Timberwolves saw in Milicic encouraged them enough to sign him to a long-term contract. Pekovic is a 24-year old rookie from Serbia. I'm going to drop the T-Wolves down a couple wins here too because of the loss of Jefferson. Net losses - 2.
Overall
The addition of Ridnour, Webster and Beasley should help the Timberwolves perform better on the court even if it doesn't mean a lot more wins. They were horrible defensively last season and I don't think that any of those three will make a big difference on that end of the floor. It also doesn't help Minnesota that they play in a division with four likely playoff teams.
The Timberwolves were 15-67 in 2009-10. As I've noted above I have them picking up two wins at point guard and one and a half at shooting guard and small forward while losing two at power forward and center.
In the final verdict the Timberwolves are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I project them to put up a 16-66 record in 2010-11.
How do you think Minnesota will be this season? Do you think they'll do better or worse than I predict? Let me know by posting a comment below.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Utah Jazz - Better or Worse
Like clockwork, the Jazz had another solid season, finishing second to the Nuggets in the most competitive division in the NBA and fifth overall in the Western Conference. They made up for losing the Northwest Division tiebreaker to Denver by beating them in six games in the first round of the playoffs. They were then swept out by the Lakers. And in the offseason it finally happened - Carlos Boozer moved on to another team. After years of rumors about Boozer being traded he left this summer to join the Bulls in what eventually became a sign and trade. However, Utah did not let his spot get cold. They moved quickly to bring Al Jefferson into the mix. Will the addition of Jefferson be enough to keep the Jazz in the upper echelon of the West? Let's take a look.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Deron Williams (#1 PG, Level 1), Ronnie Price (#55 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Deron Williams (#1 PG, Level 1), Earl Watson (#47 PG, Level 9)
Although Williams didn't rank first in any of the five categories of statistical analysis that I used to compare players, when you added his rankings up he was at the top of the point guard list. He's clearly established himself as one of the elite set up men in the league. You may argue that Chris Paul is better, but if so, you have to concede that Williams is not far behind. Watson is simply okay as the primary backup. I don't think you can expect anymore from Williams, but I also don't think he'll provide any less. Net wins - 0.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Wesley Matthews (#31 SG, Level 7), Kyle Korver (#16 SG, Level 4)
2010 - Raja Bell (Injured), C.J. Miles (#50 SF, Level 10)
On paper the Jazz will take a big hit at the shooting guard position. In good conscience they couldn't give Matthews a contract near what he received from Portland after just one year. They also lost Korver to the Bulls. They successfully lured defensive standout Bell from the grips of the Lakers, but he's coming off a bad injury and you have to wonder how much he has left. Meanwhile, Miles was barely more than just a guy last season. Net losses - 4.
Small Forward
2009 - Andrei Kirilenko (#3 SF, Level 2), C.J. Miles (#50 SF, Level 10)
2010 - Andrei Kirilenko (#3 SF, Level 2), Gordon Hayward (Rookie)
Kirilenko had a resurgence of sorts last season and was very productive in his minutes on the floor. It's injuries that could continue to bring him down. Hayward parlayed a strong showing at the NCAA Tournament into being picked in the NBA Lottery. To contribute in his first year he'll have to develop a consistent jump shot. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Carlos Boozer (#6 PF, Level 2), Paul Millsap (#13 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Paul Millsap (#13 PF, Level 4)
Boozer's wandering eye frustrated Jazz management, fans and probably even teammates. But, he still led the team in scoring and rebounding in the regular season. His absence will be felt, especially on a team that lacks depth on the front line. Millsap saw decreased minutes last season because of Boozer's relative health but he was still very effective. Jefferson will be the primary "backup." I think the loss of Boozer hurts them at the four. Net losses - 3.
Center
2009 - Mehmet Okur (#22 C, Level 5)
2010 - Al Jefferson (#23 C, Level 5), Mehmet Okur (#22 C, Level 5)
Likely to feel reborn after experiencing a great deal of losing in Minnesota, Jefferson should return to his production numbers of a couple of years ago. I've got him primarily at the five due to Okur's achilles injury. Okur suffered through injuries most of last season and his numbers showed it. It looks like he will return some time in November. Until then Utah will have serious depth issues at the four and five. Still, I like Jefferson to be a beast in the middle. Net wins - 2.
Overall
The Jazz have been one of the most consistently good teams in the NBA. They'll need their new pieces, Jefferson, Bell and Hayward, to step right in and produce if that is going to be the case in 2010-11. In addition, they are frightfully thin at almost every position so any type of mid- to long-term injury could really derail the season.
Utah finished 2009-10 at 53-29. As I've documented above, I've got them adding two wins at center and one at small forward while dropping four at shooting guard and three at power forward and breaking even at point guard.
In the final verdict, the Jazz are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I predict they will finish the season at 49-33.
How many wins do you think the Jazz will get in 2010-11? Let me know be making a comment below.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: _rockinfree |
Point Guard
2009 - Deron Williams (#1 PG, Level 1), Ronnie Price (#55 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Deron Williams (#1 PG, Level 1), Earl Watson (#47 PG, Level 9)
Although Williams didn't rank first in any of the five categories of statistical analysis that I used to compare players, when you added his rankings up he was at the top of the point guard list. He's clearly established himself as one of the elite set up men in the league. You may argue that Chris Paul is better, but if so, you have to concede that Williams is not far behind. Watson is simply okay as the primary backup. I don't think you can expect anymore from Williams, but I also don't think he'll provide any less. Net wins - 0.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Wesley Matthews (#31 SG, Level 7), Kyle Korver (#16 SG, Level 4)
2010 - Raja Bell (Injured), C.J. Miles (#50 SF, Level 10)
On paper the Jazz will take a big hit at the shooting guard position. In good conscience they couldn't give Matthews a contract near what he received from Portland after just one year. They also lost Korver to the Bulls. They successfully lured defensive standout Bell from the grips of the Lakers, but he's coming off a bad injury and you have to wonder how much he has left. Meanwhile, Miles was barely more than just a guy last season. Net losses - 4.
Small Forward
2009 - Andrei Kirilenko (#3 SF, Level 2), C.J. Miles (#50 SF, Level 10)
2010 - Andrei Kirilenko (#3 SF, Level 2), Gordon Hayward (Rookie)
Kirilenko had a resurgence of sorts last season and was very productive in his minutes on the floor. It's injuries that could continue to bring him down. Hayward parlayed a strong showing at the NCAA Tournament into being picked in the NBA Lottery. To contribute in his first year he'll have to develop a consistent jump shot. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Carlos Boozer (#6 PF, Level 2), Paul Millsap (#13 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Paul Millsap (#13 PF, Level 4)
Boozer's wandering eye frustrated Jazz management, fans and probably even teammates. But, he still led the team in scoring and rebounding in the regular season. His absence will be felt, especially on a team that lacks depth on the front line. Millsap saw decreased minutes last season because of Boozer's relative health but he was still very effective. Jefferson will be the primary "backup." I think the loss of Boozer hurts them at the four. Net losses - 3.
Center
2009 - Mehmet Okur (#22 C, Level 5)
2010 - Al Jefferson (#23 C, Level 5), Mehmet Okur (#22 C, Level 5)
Likely to feel reborn after experiencing a great deal of losing in Minnesota, Jefferson should return to his production numbers of a couple of years ago. I've got him primarily at the five due to Okur's achilles injury. Okur suffered through injuries most of last season and his numbers showed it. It looks like he will return some time in November. Until then Utah will have serious depth issues at the four and five. Still, I like Jefferson to be a beast in the middle. Net wins - 2.
Overall
The Jazz have been one of the most consistently good teams in the NBA. They'll need their new pieces, Jefferson, Bell and Hayward, to step right in and produce if that is going to be the case in 2010-11. In addition, they are frightfully thin at almost every position so any type of mid- to long-term injury could really derail the season.
Utah finished 2009-10 at 53-29. As I've documented above, I've got them adding two wins at center and one at small forward while dropping four at shooting guard and three at power forward and breaking even at point guard.
In the final verdict, the Jazz are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I predict they will finish the season at 49-33.
How many wins do you think the Jazz will get in 2010-11? Let me know be making a comment below.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Portland Trail Blazers - Better or Worse
The Trail Blazers have been at the top of the future dynasty list since they drafted Greg Oden in 2007. Unfortunately, Oden has suffered one injury after another and Portland has yet to reach their potential. In fact, they've yet to win a playoff series. Oden was playing very well in 2009 before getting hurt in the 21st game of the season and not returning to the court. His was just one of many injuries the Blazers suffered last season. Still they managed to win 50 games and grab the sixth playoff seed in the Western Conference. What could they accomplish if they are able to stay relatively healthy? Let's take a look at their 2010-11 squad.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Andre Miller (#6 PG, Level 2), Jerryd Bayless (#39 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Andre Miller (#6 PG, Level 2), Jerryd Bayless (#39 PG, Level 8)
Miller was Portland's rock last year, putting up excellent numbers and averaging more than 30 minutes a game while playing in all 82. I don't believe he'll be able to sustain that level of production in 2010-11, but I do think that improved play from Bayless, who was respectable in his second year in the NBA, will make up for some of the drop off in Miller's play. Net losses - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Brandon Roy (#4 SG, Level 2), Rudy Fernandez (#24 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Brandon Roy (#4 SG, Level 2), Rudy Fernandez (#24 SG, Level 6)
Roy was stellar in his fourth year and may still be developing. Fernandez took a step back in his second year as his shooting percentages dropped by a fairly significant margin. He was threatening to go to Europe during the offseason but seems to have settled back in. He would be a huge asset for the Blazers if his level of play returns to that of his rookie year. Net wins - 1 1/2.
Small Forward
2009 - Martell Webster (#31 SF, Level 7), Nicolas Batum (#6 SF, Level 3)
2010 - Nicolas Batum (#6 SF, Level 3), Wesley Matthews (#31 SG, Level 7)
After just two years, Batum has proven himself to be an excellent three point shooter with a solid all around game. He was very effective while on the court last season, placing sixth in my small forward rankings and leading the position in the Offensive Rating category. The Blazers probably overpaid for Matthews, but he was a steady shooter and solid defender in his rookie campaign. If Batum can stay healthy, this spot should add a couple wins to the bottom line. Net wins - 2.
Power Forward
2009 - LaMarcus Aldridge (#14 PF, Level 4), Juwan Howard (#63 PF, Below level)
2010 - LaMarcus Aldridge (#14 PF, Level 4), Dante Cunningham (#40 PF, Level 7)
Defense is not his specialty but Aldridge is very good on the offensive end of the court. Howard was barely more than a body in the backup role. The Blazers were hoping to have Jeff Pendergraph as the backup at the four, but he's likely out for the season. Now they turn to Cunningham who had a decent rookie year. I think Aldridge's production level was about as high as it will get last season while Cunningham should bring a slight improvement to the backup role. Net wins - 1/2.
Center
2009 - Marcus Camby (#5 PF, Level 2), Greg Oden (#3 C, Level 2), Joel Przybilla (#47 C, Level 8)
2010 - Greg Oden (#3 C, Level 2), Marcus Camby (#5 PF, Level 2)
This is the position that holds the key to the Trail Blazers success in 2010-11. Oden's rank as the third most productive center in the NBA shows you what he was bringing when he was on the floor. Camby was excellent as well, but I've got to believe age will start catching up with him. It's probably foolish of me but I'm going to go ahead and project this position as if Oden will be playing for most of the season. Net wins - 3.
Overall
If Portland can put all of the pieces together and keep them healthy they very well may be the biggest threat to the Lakers in the Western Conference. But based on their recent injury history that is a big if. Besides the center position the next biggest key to me is point guard. If Miller can perform close to the level he did in 2009-10 the Blazers will be in great shape. If not, Roy will be the only real playmaker on the team.
The Blazers put up a 50-32 regular season record in 2009-10. As noted above, I've got them picking up three wins at center, two at small forward, one and a half at shooting guard and half a win at power forward while losing a win at point guard.
In the final verdict the Portland Trail Blazers are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I project a regular season record of 56-26.
What are your thoughts on the Blazers? Is my prediction of their record to optimistic? Let me know by posting a comment below.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: The Intrepid Traveler |
2009 - Andre Miller (#6 PG, Level 2), Jerryd Bayless (#39 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Andre Miller (#6 PG, Level 2), Jerryd Bayless (#39 PG, Level 8)
Miller was Portland's rock last year, putting up excellent numbers and averaging more than 30 minutes a game while playing in all 82. I don't believe he'll be able to sustain that level of production in 2010-11, but I do think that improved play from Bayless, who was respectable in his second year in the NBA, will make up for some of the drop off in Miller's play. Net losses - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Brandon Roy (#4 SG, Level 2), Rudy Fernandez (#24 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Brandon Roy (#4 SG, Level 2), Rudy Fernandez (#24 SG, Level 6)
Roy was stellar in his fourth year and may still be developing. Fernandez took a step back in his second year as his shooting percentages dropped by a fairly significant margin. He was threatening to go to Europe during the offseason but seems to have settled back in. He would be a huge asset for the Blazers if his level of play returns to that of his rookie year. Net wins - 1 1/2.
Small Forward
2009 - Martell Webster (#31 SF, Level 7), Nicolas Batum (#6 SF, Level 3)
2010 - Nicolas Batum (#6 SF, Level 3), Wesley Matthews (#31 SG, Level 7)
After just two years, Batum has proven himself to be an excellent three point shooter with a solid all around game. He was very effective while on the court last season, placing sixth in my small forward rankings and leading the position in the Offensive Rating category. The Blazers probably overpaid for Matthews, but he was a steady shooter and solid defender in his rookie campaign. If Batum can stay healthy, this spot should add a couple wins to the bottom line. Net wins - 2.
Power Forward
2009 - LaMarcus Aldridge (#14 PF, Level 4), Juwan Howard (#63 PF, Below level)
2010 - LaMarcus Aldridge (#14 PF, Level 4), Dante Cunningham (#40 PF, Level 7)
Defense is not his specialty but Aldridge is very good on the offensive end of the court. Howard was barely more than a body in the backup role. The Blazers were hoping to have Jeff Pendergraph as the backup at the four, but he's likely out for the season. Now they turn to Cunningham who had a decent rookie year. I think Aldridge's production level was about as high as it will get last season while Cunningham should bring a slight improvement to the backup role. Net wins - 1/2.
Center
2009 - Marcus Camby (#5 PF, Level 2), Greg Oden (#3 C, Level 2), Joel Przybilla (#47 C, Level 8)
2010 - Greg Oden (#3 C, Level 2), Marcus Camby (#5 PF, Level 2)
This is the position that holds the key to the Trail Blazers success in 2010-11. Oden's rank as the third most productive center in the NBA shows you what he was bringing when he was on the floor. Camby was excellent as well, but I've got to believe age will start catching up with him. It's probably foolish of me but I'm going to go ahead and project this position as if Oden will be playing for most of the season. Net wins - 3.
Overall
If Portland can put all of the pieces together and keep them healthy they very well may be the biggest threat to the Lakers in the Western Conference. But based on their recent injury history that is a big if. Besides the center position the next biggest key to me is point guard. If Miller can perform close to the level he did in 2009-10 the Blazers will be in great shape. If not, Roy will be the only real playmaker on the team.
The Blazers put up a 50-32 regular season record in 2009-10. As noted above, I've got them picking up three wins at center, two at small forward, one and a half at shooting guard and half a win at power forward while losing a win at point guard.
In the final verdict the Portland Trail Blazers are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I project a regular season record of 56-26.
What are your thoughts on the Blazers? Is my prediction of their record to optimistic? Let me know by posting a comment below.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Oklahoma City Thunder - Better or Worse
It's not often that a team doubles its wins total from the season before. The Thunder did that and more in 2009-10 as they quickly grew from cute puppies to vicious dogs. Then they impressed even more by taking the defending, and eventual, champion Lakers to six games in a highly competitive first round playoff series. The good feelings about Oklahoma City grew even more over the summer as Kevin Durant worked his way into more and more of the fans good graces as he led Team USA to a gold medal in the World Championships. And for good measure, Russell Westbrook earned accolades by many as the second best player on that team. Are the Thunder ready to take an even bigger step in 2010-11?
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Russell Westbrook (#8 PG, Level 2), Eric Maynor (#41 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Russell Westbrook (#8 PG, Level 2), Eric Maynor (#41 PG, Level 8)
Westbrook took a nice step forward in his second season. If he can improve his shooting he can be even more deadly. Maynor proved to be a solid backup as a rookie. I expect both players to improve further in 2010-11. Net wins - 2.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Thabo Sefolosha (#43 SG, Level 8), James Harden (#17 SG, Level 4)
2010 - Thabo Sefolosha (#43 SG, Level 8), James Harden (#17 SG, Level 4)
Defense is Sefolosha's specialty on the wing. Harden had a better rookie year than he was given credit for. He'll continue to develop. Net wins - 1.
Small Forward
2009 - Kevin Durant (#2 SF, Level 2)
2010 - Kevin Durant (#2 SF, Level 2)
An incredible talent, Durant will be starting his fourth season as a favorite for the MVP award. He was spectacular in 2009-10 and led the NBA in scoring. Expect more of the same this season. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Jeff Green (#50 PF, Level 8), Serge Ibaka (#31 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Jeff Green (#50 PF, Level 8), Serge Ibaka (#31 PF, Level 6)
I was shocked when I initially ran the numbers and saw Green's poor ranking among power forwards. Ibaka was a revelation in his rookie year, providing more than the Thunder could have expected. I like a subtle tick up at the four for Oklahoma City. Net wins - 1.
Center
2009 - Nenad Krstic (#31 C, Level 7), Nick Collison (#26, Level 6)
2010 - Nenad Krstic (#31 C, Level 7), Cole Aldrich (Rookie)
Krstic put in a good season for the Thunder, as did Collison. Aldrich should be a good defensive addition to the team but you can expect some growing pains. Still, he needs to get minutes for the long term benefit of the Thunder. Net Losses - 1.
Overall
When the question of who is the biggest challenger to the Lakers in the Western Conference is asked, a number of experts are choosing Oklahoma City. I really like this team but I think it is too soon to say that. Let's remember, this group has not even won a playoff series yet. It's often a big jump for a young team to go from pesky first round opponent to the conference finals.
Two areas where the Thunder underperformed as a team in 2009-10 were turnovers (22nd in NBA) and three-point shooting percentage (25th in NBA). They did nothing to substantially improve in those areas, although deep bench additions Daequan Cook and Morris Peterson could help behind the arc. To most effectively solidify those areas they'll need improvement from the core group.
Oklahoma City finished last season with a 50-32 record. As I documented above, I have them picking up two more wins at point guard and one apiece at shooting guard, small forward and power forward, while dropping one at center.
In the final verdict the Thunder are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I predict a regular season record of 54-28.
What are your thoughts on my projection for the Thunder? Let me know by posting a comment below.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Russell Westbrook (#8 PG, Level 2), Eric Maynor (#41 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Russell Westbrook (#8 PG, Level 2), Eric Maynor (#41 PG, Level 8)
Westbrook took a nice step forward in his second season. If he can improve his shooting he can be even more deadly. Maynor proved to be a solid backup as a rookie. I expect both players to improve further in 2010-11. Net wins - 2.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Thabo Sefolosha (#43 SG, Level 8), James Harden (#17 SG, Level 4)
2010 - Thabo Sefolosha (#43 SG, Level 8), James Harden (#17 SG, Level 4)
Defense is Sefolosha's specialty on the wing. Harden had a better rookie year than he was given credit for. He'll continue to develop. Net wins - 1.
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| Photo source: Yzukerman |
Small Forward
2009 - Kevin Durant (#2 SF, Level 2)
2010 - Kevin Durant (#2 SF, Level 2)
An incredible talent, Durant will be starting his fourth season as a favorite for the MVP award. He was spectacular in 2009-10 and led the NBA in scoring. Expect more of the same this season. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Jeff Green (#50 PF, Level 8), Serge Ibaka (#31 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Jeff Green (#50 PF, Level 8), Serge Ibaka (#31 PF, Level 6)
I was shocked when I initially ran the numbers and saw Green's poor ranking among power forwards. Ibaka was a revelation in his rookie year, providing more than the Thunder could have expected. I like a subtle tick up at the four for Oklahoma City. Net wins - 1.
Center
2009 - Nenad Krstic (#31 C, Level 7), Nick Collison (#26, Level 6)
2010 - Nenad Krstic (#31 C, Level 7), Cole Aldrich (Rookie)
Krstic put in a good season for the Thunder, as did Collison. Aldrich should be a good defensive addition to the team but you can expect some growing pains. Still, he needs to get minutes for the long term benefit of the Thunder. Net Losses - 1.
Overall
When the question of who is the biggest challenger to the Lakers in the Western Conference is asked, a number of experts are choosing Oklahoma City. I really like this team but I think it is too soon to say that. Let's remember, this group has not even won a playoff series yet. It's often a big jump for a young team to go from pesky first round opponent to the conference finals.
Two areas where the Thunder underperformed as a team in 2009-10 were turnovers (22nd in NBA) and three-point shooting percentage (25th in NBA). They did nothing to substantially improve in those areas, although deep bench additions Daequan Cook and Morris Peterson could help behind the arc. To most effectively solidify those areas they'll need improvement from the core group.
Oklahoma City finished last season with a 50-32 record. As I documented above, I have them picking up two more wins at point guard and one apiece at shooting guard, small forward and power forward, while dropping one at center.
In the final verdict the Thunder are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I predict a regular season record of 54-28.
What are your thoughts on my projection for the Thunder? Let me know by posting a comment below.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Denver Nuggets - Better or Worse
The Nuggets are coming off a difficult season. They had a very respectable 53 wins but greatly missed their head coach George Karl after he took a leave of absence for cancer treatment. Denver hung on to win the Northwest Division but then lost to the rival Jazz in six games in the first round of the playoffs. Since then there have been nothing but rumors about the coming and going of Carmelo Anthony. A few weeks ago a deal seemed to be all but done to send Carmelo to the Nets but somebody backed out as the final hour approached. Now the Nuggets seem to be bathed in uncertainty as the new season approaches. Even though there is a very high likelihood that the team we evaluate here will not be together throughout the season, let's take a shot at predicting the record anyway.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Chauncey Billups (#5 PG, Level 2), Ty Lawson (#15 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Chauncey Billups (#5 PG, Level 2), Ty Lawson (#15 PG, Level 4)
The rotation at point guard will not change and that is definitely a good thing for the Nuggets. Billups continued to defy age and play at a very high level. Lawson had an excellent rookie year. I expect the same high level of production from this position but with Lawson picking up a few more of Billups' minutes. Net wins - 0.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Arron Afflalo (#48 SG, Level 8), J.R. Smith (#22 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Arron Afflalo (#48 SG, Level 8), J.R. Smith (#22 SG, Level 5)
Afflalo gave the Nuggets what they wanted in a starter at off guard - a solid three point shooter who can play some defense. Smith's efficiency suffered as his three point shooting percentage dropped last year. He just took more shots to keep his scoring average up. I think Denver got as much production as they could out of this position last season. I'm calling for a small drop. Net losses - 1.
Small Forward
2009 - Carmelo Anthony (#8 SF, Level 3)
2010 - Carmelo Anthony (#8 SF, Level 3)
What happens with Carmelo will be the biggest determining factor in the Nuggets season. I can see him going out to prove a point early in the season and surpassing his past performance. But, I can also see him getting frustrated with the whole situation and playing poorly. I'm going to go with the former. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Kenyon Martin (#49 PF, Level 8)
2010 - Al Harrington (#47 PF, Level 7), Kenyon Martin (#49 PF, Level 8)
Harrington is not the upgrade at power forward that the Nuggets would like you to believe he is. Karl recently said that he was hopeful that Martin would be back from his knee injury around January 1. Denver will miss him dearly on the defensive end. Net losses - 1 1/2.
Center
2009 - Nene (#7 C, Level 2), Chris Andersen (#9 C, Level 3)
2010 - Nene (#7 C, Level 2), Chris Andersen (#9 C, Level 3)
Another stellar season was turned in by Nene. His stats were solid and maybe most importantly he was able to start all 82 games. It looks like Andersen will miss at least the first month of the season with a knee injury. I think both players hit their ceiling production-wise in 2009-10, meaning there will be some drop off. Net losses - 1 1/2.
Overall
Until things are settled with Carmelo the Nuggets will be hard to read. It will be to their advantage to make a move sooner than later, otherwise they will risk receiving nothing in return for a huge asset. The addition of Harrington was the only significant move they made over the summer. Sure he can space the floor with his three point shooting ability but ultimately I think his lack of defensive prowess will hurt this squad. They will also suffer from the injuries to Martin and Andersen.
The Nuggets posted a 53-29 record in 2009-10. As I've noted above, I've got them picking up one win at small forward, breaking even at point guard and losing one and a half at power forward and center and one at shooting guard.
In the final verdict the Nuggets are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I predict that they will have a 50-32 record in 2010-11.
How do you think the uncertainty will affect the Nuggets? Does my record projection seem about right to you? Let me know by posting a comment below.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: dherrera_96 |
Point Guard
2009 - Chauncey Billups (#5 PG, Level 2), Ty Lawson (#15 PG, Level 4)
2010 - Chauncey Billups (#5 PG, Level 2), Ty Lawson (#15 PG, Level 4)
The rotation at point guard will not change and that is definitely a good thing for the Nuggets. Billups continued to defy age and play at a very high level. Lawson had an excellent rookie year. I expect the same high level of production from this position but with Lawson picking up a few more of Billups' minutes. Net wins - 0.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Arron Afflalo (#48 SG, Level 8), J.R. Smith (#22 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Arron Afflalo (#48 SG, Level 8), J.R. Smith (#22 SG, Level 5)
Afflalo gave the Nuggets what they wanted in a starter at off guard - a solid three point shooter who can play some defense. Smith's efficiency suffered as his three point shooting percentage dropped last year. He just took more shots to keep his scoring average up. I think Denver got as much production as they could out of this position last season. I'm calling for a small drop. Net losses - 1.
Small Forward
2009 - Carmelo Anthony (#8 SF, Level 3)
2010 - Carmelo Anthony (#8 SF, Level 3)
What happens with Carmelo will be the biggest determining factor in the Nuggets season. I can see him going out to prove a point early in the season and surpassing his past performance. But, I can also see him getting frustrated with the whole situation and playing poorly. I'm going to go with the former. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Kenyon Martin (#49 PF, Level 8)
2010 - Al Harrington (#47 PF, Level 7), Kenyon Martin (#49 PF, Level 8)
Harrington is not the upgrade at power forward that the Nuggets would like you to believe he is. Karl recently said that he was hopeful that Martin would be back from his knee injury around January 1. Denver will miss him dearly on the defensive end. Net losses - 1 1/2.
Center
2009 - Nene (#7 C, Level 2), Chris Andersen (#9 C, Level 3)
2010 - Nene (#7 C, Level 2), Chris Andersen (#9 C, Level 3)
Another stellar season was turned in by Nene. His stats were solid and maybe most importantly he was able to start all 82 games. It looks like Andersen will miss at least the first month of the season with a knee injury. I think both players hit their ceiling production-wise in 2009-10, meaning there will be some drop off. Net losses - 1 1/2.
Overall
Until things are settled with Carmelo the Nuggets will be hard to read. It will be to their advantage to make a move sooner than later, otherwise they will risk receiving nothing in return for a huge asset. The addition of Harrington was the only significant move they made over the summer. Sure he can space the floor with his three point shooting ability but ultimately I think his lack of defensive prowess will hurt this squad. They will also suffer from the injuries to Martin and Andersen.
The Nuggets posted a 53-29 record in 2009-10. As I've noted above, I've got them picking up one win at small forward, breaking even at point guard and losing one and a half at power forward and center and one at shooting guard.
In the final verdict the Nuggets are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I predict that they will have a 50-32 record in 2010-11.
How do you think the uncertainty will affect the Nuggets? Does my record projection seem about right to you? Let me know by posting a comment below.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Golden State Warriors - Better or Worse
What a mess. Those three words summarize Golden State's previous season. Team chemistry was nonexistent. Most of the players seemed to be completely in it for themselves. Don Nelson continued to make bizarre decisions about the playing rotation. The number of wins decreased again, even after a huge drop off in the 2008-09 season. On the bright side, Stephen Curry had a solid rookie year. After the season ended the Warriors made a very curious draft pick, were bought and sold, traded their second leading scorer for a bag of donuts, made a deal to pick up a high profile but maybe low impact free agent and fired their coach. How will all of these changes affect their record in 2010-11? Let's take a look.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Stephen Curry (#22 PG, Level 5), C.J. Watson (#29 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Stephen Curry (#22 PG, Level 5), Charlie Bell (#67 SG, Below Level)
Curry was all the Warriors hoped he could be as his game grew quickly during his rookie tilt. He should develop more in 2010-11. The problem for Golden State comes at the backup position. C.J. Watson put in a respectable season off the bench last year. It looks like there will be a noticeable drop off this season as Bell is likely to be a part of a three guard rotation with Curry and Monta Ellis. Net losses - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Monta Ellis (#37 SG, Level 7), Anthony Morrow (#27 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Monta Ellis (#37 SG, Level 7)
Efficiency, on offense and defense, was the factor that most hurt the ranking of Ellis amongst other shooting guards. I don't believe that will change this season. Again, the Warriors will be hurt by a weakened bench. Morrow was an effective contributor in 2009-10. Net Losses - 2.
Small Forward
2009 - Corey Maggette (#14 SF, Level 4), Reggie Williams (#24 SF, Level 6)
2010 - Dorell Wright (#10 SF, Level 4), Reggie Williams (#24 SF, Level 6)
I think Wright was one of the best under the radar signings of the free agency period. He is very efficient offensively and also solid on defense. Williams was quite a find out of the D-League last year. His PER ranked 13th among small forwards. I like further development for Wright and Williams but I think it will be hard for them to match Maggette's production from 2009-10. Net Losses - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Ronny Turiaf (#45 C, Level 8), Anthony Randolph (#32 PF, Level 6)
2010 - David Lee (#12 C, Level 3), Brandan Wright (Missed last year with injury)
Don Nelson used an eclectic mix of players at the four last year, some were small and some were big. There could be more of the same this season with Lee playing minutes at the five. Lee was spectacular on offense last year, ranking fourth among centers in PER. There's no way to know what to expect from Wright who shows a lot of promise but missed the 2009-10 season with an injury. I like Lee to bring more production at this position. Net wins - 3.
Center
2009 - Anthony Tolliver (#39 C, Level 8), Andris Biedrins (#42 C, Level 8)
2010 - Andris Biedrins (#42 C, Level 8), Louis Amundson (#28 C, Level 6)
Injuries derailed Biedrins' development in 2009-10 after three straight seasons of improving numbers. Amundson is a good energy guy off the bench but it looks like he'll now miss the first one to three months of the season after breaking his finger. Net wins - 1.
Overall
The addition of Lee and Dorell Wright may revitalize this team, but it's more likely that they would have been better off in the long run by bottoming out and starting over with just Curry and a couple of other players. In the best case scenario for Golden State Curry takes a leadership role, Ellis decides to play team ball, D Wright and Williams produce strongly, Lee brings everything he had in New York and B Wright and Biedrins come back as healthy contributors. But I don't quite see that happening.
The Warriors finished last season at 26-56. As I've documented above, I've got them adding three wins at power forward and one win at center while dropping two at shooting guard and one apiece at point guard and small forward.
In the final verdict the Warriors are the SAME. As they are currently constructed I project that they will have a 26-56 record this season.
What are your thoughts on my projection? Too low? Too high? Let me know by posting a comment below.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: permanently scatterbrained |
Point Guard
2009 - Stephen Curry (#22 PG, Level 5), C.J. Watson (#29 PG, Level 6)
2010 - Stephen Curry (#22 PG, Level 5), Charlie Bell (#67 SG, Below Level)
Curry was all the Warriors hoped he could be as his game grew quickly during his rookie tilt. He should develop more in 2010-11. The problem for Golden State comes at the backup position. C.J. Watson put in a respectable season off the bench last year. It looks like there will be a noticeable drop off this season as Bell is likely to be a part of a three guard rotation with Curry and Monta Ellis. Net losses - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Monta Ellis (#37 SG, Level 7), Anthony Morrow (#27 SG, Level 6)
2010 - Monta Ellis (#37 SG, Level 7)
Efficiency, on offense and defense, was the factor that most hurt the ranking of Ellis amongst other shooting guards. I don't believe that will change this season. Again, the Warriors will be hurt by a weakened bench. Morrow was an effective contributor in 2009-10. Net Losses - 2.
Small Forward
2009 - Corey Maggette (#14 SF, Level 4), Reggie Williams (#24 SF, Level 6)
2010 - Dorell Wright (#10 SF, Level 4), Reggie Williams (#24 SF, Level 6)
I think Wright was one of the best under the radar signings of the free agency period. He is very efficient offensively and also solid on defense. Williams was quite a find out of the D-League last year. His PER ranked 13th among small forwards. I like further development for Wright and Williams but I think it will be hard for them to match Maggette's production from 2009-10. Net Losses - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Ronny Turiaf (#45 C, Level 8), Anthony Randolph (#32 PF, Level 6)
2010 - David Lee (#12 C, Level 3), Brandan Wright (Missed last year with injury)
Don Nelson used an eclectic mix of players at the four last year, some were small and some were big. There could be more of the same this season with Lee playing minutes at the five. Lee was spectacular on offense last year, ranking fourth among centers in PER. There's no way to know what to expect from Wright who shows a lot of promise but missed the 2009-10 season with an injury. I like Lee to bring more production at this position. Net wins - 3.
Center
2009 - Anthony Tolliver (#39 C, Level 8), Andris Biedrins (#42 C, Level 8)
2010 - Andris Biedrins (#42 C, Level 8), Louis Amundson (#28 C, Level 6)
Injuries derailed Biedrins' development in 2009-10 after three straight seasons of improving numbers. Amundson is a good energy guy off the bench but it looks like he'll now miss the first one to three months of the season after breaking his finger. Net wins - 1.
Overall
The addition of Lee and Dorell Wright may revitalize this team, but it's more likely that they would have been better off in the long run by bottoming out and starting over with just Curry and a couple of other players. In the best case scenario for Golden State Curry takes a leadership role, Ellis decides to play team ball, D Wright and Williams produce strongly, Lee brings everything he had in New York and B Wright and Biedrins come back as healthy contributors. But I don't quite see that happening.
The Warriors finished last season at 26-56. As I've documented above, I've got them adding three wins at power forward and one win at center while dropping two at shooting guard and one apiece at point guard and small forward.
In the final verdict the Warriors are the SAME. As they are currently constructed I project that they will have a 26-56 record this season.
What are your thoughts on my projection? Too low? Too high? Let me know by posting a comment below.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Sacramento Kings - Better or Worse
After hitting the bottom in the 2008-09 season and only earning 17 wins, the Kings started to rebound last year with the emergence of Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans. They had another solid draft and made a nice trade to bring in Samuel Dalembert, who unfortunately got hurt and is expected to miss the first four to six weeks. It seems clear that Sacramento is now aimed in the right direction, but how much better will they be in 2010-11?
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Beno Udrih (#25 PG, Level 5)
2010 - Beno Udrih (#25 PG, Level 5)
Because Evans gets so many minutes at the point there really is no use in slotting another player into the backup role. Udrih had a solid 2009-10 and really hit his stride when he began starting alongside Evans after the Kevin Martin trade. The key for him will be avoiding turnovers. He was much improved in that category last season, as he was with shooting percentage. Net wins - 1/2.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Tyreke Evans (#14 PG, Level 4), Francisco Garcia (#41 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Tyreke Evans (#14 PG, Level 4), Francisco Garcia (#41 SG, Level 7)
Evans surpassed even the most optimistic of expectations last season and really took over the team after the Martin trade. There are certainly opportunities for improvement in his game though and I expect more development in those areas next season. Garcia is a serviceable backup with a nice touch from three-point range. Net wins - 1 1/2.
2010 - Donte Greene (#52 SF, Level 10), Omri Casspi (#30 SF, Level 7)
Small forward is a position where the Kings need more consistently solid play in 2010-11. The good news is that both Greene (22) and Casspi (22) are young and athletic with promise and a lot of room for growth. It would help Sacramento if one of them really took hold of this position. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Carl Landry (#17 PF, Level 5), Jon Brockman (#51, Level 8)
2010 - Carl Landry (#17 PF, Level 5), Jason Thompson (#33 C, Level 7)
A full season of Landry will be a boon to Sacramento. He really broke out last year in Houston before stepping his game up even further after being traded to the Kings. Thompson saw most of his minutes at the five spot last year. That will probably be true for the early part of this season as well as they await the return of Dalembert. Net wins - 1 1/2.
Center
2009 - Jason Thompson (#33 C, Level 7), Spencer Hawes (#48 C, Level 8)
2010 - Samuel Dalembert (17 C, Level 4), DeMarcus Cousins (Rookie)
Unfortunately the immediate improvement at center for the Kings will be delayed by Dalembert's injury. He should help them greatly on the defensive end, an area where they really need it. Cousins could be a perennial all star or a complete flame out. I lean much more toward the former, however, I don't expect him to be a heavy contributor in his rookie year. Net wins - 1 1/2.
Overall
Much like I mentioned about the Clippers, the Kings are building a nice foundation of young talent and the key to their success, both short-term and long-term, will be how they groom those players to excel. It should be fun to watch this team come together this season. The Kings had a 25-57 record in 2009-10. As highlighted above, I've got them picking up one and a half wins at shooting guard, power forward and center, one win at small forward and half a win at point guard.
In the final verdict the Kings are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I project that they will have a 31-51 record in 2010-11.
What are your thoughts on this season's Kings? Do you think my record projection is on target? Let me know by posting a comment below.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Beno Udrih (#25 PG, Level 5)
2010 - Beno Udrih (#25 PG, Level 5)
Because Evans gets so many minutes at the point there really is no use in slotting another player into the backup role. Udrih had a solid 2009-10 and really hit his stride when he began starting alongside Evans after the Kevin Martin trade. The key for him will be avoiding turnovers. He was much improved in that category last season, as he was with shooting percentage. Net wins - 1/2.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Tyreke Evans (#14 PG, Level 4), Francisco Garcia (#41 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Tyreke Evans (#14 PG, Level 4), Francisco Garcia (#41 SG, Level 7)
Evans surpassed even the most optimistic of expectations last season and really took over the team after the Martin trade. There are certainly opportunities for improvement in his game though and I expect more development in those areas next season. Garcia is a serviceable backup with a nice touch from three-point range. Net wins - 1 1/2.
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| Photo source: J.smith |
Small Forward
2009 - Donte Greene (#52 SF, Level 10), Omri Casspi (#30 SF, Level 7)2010 - Donte Greene (#52 SF, Level 10), Omri Casspi (#30 SF, Level 7)
Small forward is a position where the Kings need more consistently solid play in 2010-11. The good news is that both Greene (22) and Casspi (22) are young and athletic with promise and a lot of room for growth. It would help Sacramento if one of them really took hold of this position. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Carl Landry (#17 PF, Level 5), Jon Brockman (#51, Level 8)
2010 - Carl Landry (#17 PF, Level 5), Jason Thompson (#33 C, Level 7)
A full season of Landry will be a boon to Sacramento. He really broke out last year in Houston before stepping his game up even further after being traded to the Kings. Thompson saw most of his minutes at the five spot last year. That will probably be true for the early part of this season as well as they await the return of Dalembert. Net wins - 1 1/2.
Center
2009 - Jason Thompson (#33 C, Level 7), Spencer Hawes (#48 C, Level 8)
2010 - Samuel Dalembert (17 C, Level 4), DeMarcus Cousins (Rookie)
Unfortunately the immediate improvement at center for the Kings will be delayed by Dalembert's injury. He should help them greatly on the defensive end, an area where they really need it. Cousins could be a perennial all star or a complete flame out. I lean much more toward the former, however, I don't expect him to be a heavy contributor in his rookie year. Net wins - 1 1/2.
Overall
Much like I mentioned about the Clippers, the Kings are building a nice foundation of young talent and the key to their success, both short-term and long-term, will be how they groom those players to excel. It should be fun to watch this team come together this season. The Kings had a 25-57 record in 2009-10. As highlighted above, I've got them picking up one and a half wins at shooting guard, power forward and center, one win at small forward and half a win at point guard.
In the final verdict the Kings are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I project that they will have a 31-51 record in 2010-11.
What are your thoughts on this season's Kings? Do you think my record projection is on target? Let me know by posting a comment below.
Los Angeles Clippers - Better or Worse
After two absolutely miserable seasons that included a combined 42 wins, the Clippers looked to be much improved going into the 2009-2010 campaign, with whispers of playoff contention floating around. And why not, they appeared to have a solid nucleus and new number one pick Blake Griffin to step up the intensity. But sadly, it was business as usual for the other team in Los Angeles. Griffin was hurt seriously right before the season started and did not play a game. The poor play on the court was only outpaced by the shenanigans behind the scenes with Mike Dunleavy and Donald Sterling. Now, Griffin is back and healthy for the upcoming season. Will that be enough to force people to start using "Clippers" and "playoff contention" in the same sentence again?
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Baron Davis (#13 PG, Level 3), Steve Blake (#54 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Baron Davis (#13 PG, Level 3), Eric Bledsoe (Rookie)
Baron Davis is not the Baron Davis of a few years ago, but he was still good enough to rank just outside the top 10 NBA point guards. I expect his skills to decline further in 2010-11. Over the course of last season three different guys served as his primary backup. Bledsoe could bring a lot of speed and excitement but is very raw. Net losses - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Eric Gordon (#33 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Eric Gordon (#33 SG, Level 7), Randy Foye (#44 SG, Level 8)
Injuries slowed Gordon's development last year. He played quite well for Team USA over the summer and I expect a nice leap from him this season. Rasual Butler played most of the other minutes available at the two last season. The Clippers have brought Foye in to add more punch off the bench. Net wins - 5.
Small Forward
2009 - Rasual Butler (#62 SG, Level 10), Travis Outlaw (#33 SF, Level 7)
2010 - Ryan Gomes (#46 SF, Level 10), Al-Farouq Aminu (Rookie)
It's hard to tell what to make of the small forward position for the Clippers. Gomes is not really an improvement over what they had there and Aminu is too young to contribute meaningfully, especially at a new position. Still I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and a tick in the positive column. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Drew Gooden (#36 PF, Level 6), Craig Smith (#28 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Blake Griffin (Rookie), Craig Smith (#28 PF, Level 6)
Technically, Griffin will be a rookie this season. Gooden and Smith ably held down the four last year as they were waiting for Griffin. Smith is a very capable back up and a productive player that L.A. wisely brought back. Net wins - 3.
Center
2009 - Chris Kaman (#32 C, Level 7), DeAndre Jordan (#53 C, Level 10)
2010 - Chris Kaman (#32 C, Level 7), DeAndre Jordan (#53 C, Level 10)
The Clippers return the same two-deep from last season, and that's a good thing. Kaman had a solid 2009-10 and should still be improving in the next year or two before hitting his ceiling. He should be helped by having a beast like Griffin on the block alongside him. Jordan can serve as a pesky last line of defense when inserted into the lineup as he continues to develop in his third year. Net wins - 2.
Overall
The Clippers had a good draft and now have an excellent group of young players in Griffin, Gordon, Bledsoe, Aminu and Jordan to develop alongside their veterans. The key word there is develop because the success of the season will lie in how quickly they can get the youngest youngsters up to NBA speed and the ones expected to have a big impact to the next level. Scoring and turnovers were the biggest thorns in the Clippers' side in 2009-10. If Gordon and Griffin can stay healthy, they will certainly give a boost to the scoring. I'm not sure anything was done to help in the turnover department.
L.A. finished last season with a 29-53 record. I've got them picking up five wins at shooting guard, three at power forward, two at center and one at small forward while losing one at point guard.
In the final verdict the Clippers are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I project that they will finish the season at 39-43.
How does that record sound to you? Too high? Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: prayitno |
Point Guard
2009 - Baron Davis (#13 PG, Level 3), Steve Blake (#54 PG, Level 10)
2010 - Baron Davis (#13 PG, Level 3), Eric Bledsoe (Rookie)
Baron Davis is not the Baron Davis of a few years ago, but he was still good enough to rank just outside the top 10 NBA point guards. I expect his skills to decline further in 2010-11. Over the course of last season three different guys served as his primary backup. Bledsoe could bring a lot of speed and excitement but is very raw. Net losses - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Eric Gordon (#33 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Eric Gordon (#33 SG, Level 7), Randy Foye (#44 SG, Level 8)
Injuries slowed Gordon's development last year. He played quite well for Team USA over the summer and I expect a nice leap from him this season. Rasual Butler played most of the other minutes available at the two last season. The Clippers have brought Foye in to add more punch off the bench. Net wins - 5.
Small Forward
2009 - Rasual Butler (#62 SG, Level 10), Travis Outlaw (#33 SF, Level 7)
2010 - Ryan Gomes (#46 SF, Level 10), Al-Farouq Aminu (Rookie)
It's hard to tell what to make of the small forward position for the Clippers. Gomes is not really an improvement over what they had there and Aminu is too young to contribute meaningfully, especially at a new position. Still I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and a tick in the positive column. Net wins - 1.
Power Forward
2009 - Drew Gooden (#36 PF, Level 6), Craig Smith (#28 PF, Level 6)
2010 - Blake Griffin (Rookie), Craig Smith (#28 PF, Level 6)
Technically, Griffin will be a rookie this season. Gooden and Smith ably held down the four last year as they were waiting for Griffin. Smith is a very capable back up and a productive player that L.A. wisely brought back. Net wins - 3.
Center
2009 - Chris Kaman (#32 C, Level 7), DeAndre Jordan (#53 C, Level 10)
2010 - Chris Kaman (#32 C, Level 7), DeAndre Jordan (#53 C, Level 10)
The Clippers return the same two-deep from last season, and that's a good thing. Kaman had a solid 2009-10 and should still be improving in the next year or two before hitting his ceiling. He should be helped by having a beast like Griffin on the block alongside him. Jordan can serve as a pesky last line of defense when inserted into the lineup as he continues to develop in his third year. Net wins - 2.
Overall
The Clippers had a good draft and now have an excellent group of young players in Griffin, Gordon, Bledsoe, Aminu and Jordan to develop alongside their veterans. The key word there is develop because the success of the season will lie in how quickly they can get the youngest youngsters up to NBA speed and the ones expected to have a big impact to the next level. Scoring and turnovers were the biggest thorns in the Clippers' side in 2009-10. If Gordon and Griffin can stay healthy, they will certainly give a boost to the scoring. I'm not sure anything was done to help in the turnover department.
L.A. finished last season with a 29-53 record. I've got them picking up five wins at shooting guard, three at power forward, two at center and one at small forward while losing one at point guard.
In the final verdict the Clippers are BETTER. As they are currently constructed I project that they will finish the season at 39-43.
How does that record sound to you? Too high? Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Phoenix Suns - Better or Worse
Following a very good regular season in which they earned the number three seed in the Western Conference, the Suns had an excellent postseason, beating the Blazers in six games then sweeping the Spurs before falling to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals in six. But the offseason brought a lot of change to Phoenix with Amare Stoudamire signing with the Knicks and the Suns then orchestrating some free agent signings and trades. Will all the summer moves result in winter success? Let's take a look.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Steve Nash (#7 PG, Level 2), Goran Dragic (#36 PG, Level 7)
2010 - Steve Nash (#7 PG, Level 2), Goran Dragic (#36 PG, Level 7)
Nash was spectacular as usual last season. The only reason he didn't rank among the top three point guards in my rankings is because his Defensive Rating was 62nd. Dragic was a solid backup in his second year in the NBA. I think Nash will start to slide this season resulting in the loss of two wins while the development of Dragic will get one of those wins back. Net losses - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Jason Richardson (#11 SG, Level 3), Leandro Barbosa (#34 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Jason Richardson (#11 SG, Level 3), Josh Childress (Played in Europe)
Richardson was good in the '09-'10 campaign but suffered a little bit of a drop off. Childress is coming back to the NBA after a two year run in Europe. He was a very productive role player for the Hawks before going overseas. I project that Richardson will slide back slightly more leading to one loss while Childress will not be as productive as Barbosa was last season resulting in another loss. Net losses - 2.
Small Forward
2009 - Grant Hill (#19 SF, Level 5), Jared Dudley (#15 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Grant Hill (#19 SF, Level 5), Jared Dudley (#15 SF, Level 5)
The Suns got consistently excellent production from the small forward position last season. One of the keys was three-point shooting, which is always important in a Steve Nash-run offense. Hill shot 44% from behind the arc while Dudley shot 46%. I've got Phoenix losing two games due to a drop off in Hill's play while staying even with Dudley. I just think he reached his ceiling last year. Net losses - 2.
Power Forward
2009 - Amare Stoudamire (#10 PF, Level 3)
2010 - Hedo Turkoglu (#32 SF, Level 7), Hakim Warrick (#42 PF, Level 7)
Stoudamire was very good for most of last season and even better in the playoffs. Replacing him will be a very tough task. The Suns are likely to use a mix of players at the four. Turkoglu, who completely flamed out in Toronto, could get the bulk of the minutes if he shows he can guard other power forwards. Regardless, Phoenix will not be able to match the production they got from Stoudamire last season. Net losses - 4.
Center
2009 - Channing Frye (#24 C, Level 5), Robin Lopez (#20 C, Level 5)
2010 - Robin Lopez (#20 C, Level 5), Channing Frye (#24 C, Level 5)
Both Frye and Lopez put in good minutes for the Suns in the '09-'10 campaign. Technically Frye started more games than Lopez. They are both back in 2010 with Lopez the clear starter and Frye offering versatility off the pine. Development from both players will lead to an improvement in production at the five. Net wins - 3.
Overall
From the beginning of the season the Suns will be trying to make up for the loss of Stoudamire and fighting the effects of age. They led the NBA in field-goal percentage and three-point field-goal percentage last season. They will have to shoot just as efficiently this season if they hope to come close to matching last year's record, which was 54-28. Looking at the season ahead, as highlighted above I've got them adding three wins at the center position, but losing four at power forward, two at small forward, two at shooting guard and one at point guard.
In the final verdict the Suns are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I project that they will finish the season with a 48-34 record.
Let me know why you think I'm wrong or right by posting a comment below.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: kevindooley |
Point Guard
2009 - Steve Nash (#7 PG, Level 2), Goran Dragic (#36 PG, Level 7)
2010 - Steve Nash (#7 PG, Level 2), Goran Dragic (#36 PG, Level 7)
Nash was spectacular as usual last season. The only reason he didn't rank among the top three point guards in my rankings is because his Defensive Rating was 62nd. Dragic was a solid backup in his second year in the NBA. I think Nash will start to slide this season resulting in the loss of two wins while the development of Dragic will get one of those wins back. Net losses - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Jason Richardson (#11 SG, Level 3), Leandro Barbosa (#34 SG, Level 7)
2010 - Jason Richardson (#11 SG, Level 3), Josh Childress (Played in Europe)
Richardson was good in the '09-'10 campaign but suffered a little bit of a drop off. Childress is coming back to the NBA after a two year run in Europe. He was a very productive role player for the Hawks before going overseas. I project that Richardson will slide back slightly more leading to one loss while Childress will not be as productive as Barbosa was last season resulting in another loss. Net losses - 2.
Small Forward
2009 - Grant Hill (#19 SF, Level 5), Jared Dudley (#15 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Grant Hill (#19 SF, Level 5), Jared Dudley (#15 SF, Level 5)
The Suns got consistently excellent production from the small forward position last season. One of the keys was three-point shooting, which is always important in a Steve Nash-run offense. Hill shot 44% from behind the arc while Dudley shot 46%. I've got Phoenix losing two games due to a drop off in Hill's play while staying even with Dudley. I just think he reached his ceiling last year. Net losses - 2.
Power Forward
2009 - Amare Stoudamire (#10 PF, Level 3)
2010 - Hedo Turkoglu (#32 SF, Level 7), Hakim Warrick (#42 PF, Level 7)
Stoudamire was very good for most of last season and even better in the playoffs. Replacing him will be a very tough task. The Suns are likely to use a mix of players at the four. Turkoglu, who completely flamed out in Toronto, could get the bulk of the minutes if he shows he can guard other power forwards. Regardless, Phoenix will not be able to match the production they got from Stoudamire last season. Net losses - 4.
Center
2009 - Channing Frye (#24 C, Level 5), Robin Lopez (#20 C, Level 5)
2010 - Robin Lopez (#20 C, Level 5), Channing Frye (#24 C, Level 5)
Both Frye and Lopez put in good minutes for the Suns in the '09-'10 campaign. Technically Frye started more games than Lopez. They are both back in 2010 with Lopez the clear starter and Frye offering versatility off the pine. Development from both players will lead to an improvement in production at the five. Net wins - 3.
Overall
From the beginning of the season the Suns will be trying to make up for the loss of Stoudamire and fighting the effects of age. They led the NBA in field-goal percentage and three-point field-goal percentage last season. They will have to shoot just as efficiently this season if they hope to come close to matching last year's record, which was 54-28. Looking at the season ahead, as highlighted above I've got them adding three wins at the center position, but losing four at power forward, two at small forward, two at shooting guard and one at point guard.
In the final verdict the Suns are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I project that they will finish the season with a 48-34 record.
Let me know why you think I'm wrong or right by posting a comment below.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Los Angeles Lakers - Better or Worse
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| Photo source: Denise Cross |
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Derek Fisher (#50 PG, Level 9), Jordan Farmar (#42 PG, Level 8)
2010 - Derek Fisher (#50 PG, Level 9), Steve Blake (#54 PG, Level 10)
Fisher's shooting percentages dropped quite a bit last season, as did his scoring average. However, he was the only one of the Lakers starters to play in all 82 games. Farmar was up and down but when averaged out his numbers make him look like a decent backup. Blake should be ideal at the point in the triangle offense because of his ability to knock down the three. I think Fisher's continued drop off will result in one less win at this position next season while the addition of Blake will neutralize the loss of Farmar. Net losses - 1.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Kobe Bryant (#3 SG, Level 2), Shannon Brown (#43 PG, Level 9)
2010 - Kobe Bryant (#3 SG, Level 2), Shannon Brown (#43 PG, Level 9)
While not putting up his most productive year, Kobe was still among the top players in the league last season. Brown put in quality minutes at both the one and the two. After rumors flew that he would end up elsewhere he did re-sign with the Lakers. I thought Kobe looked like a lesser player in the NBA Finals and I think a further drop will lead to two less wins, while Brown will be pretty close to even. Net losses - 2.
Small Forward
2009 - Ron Artest (#23 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Ron Artest (#23 SF, Level 5), Matt Barnes (#9 SF, Level 3)
Barnes was an excellent signing for the Lakers and he could help spell Kobe productively at the two at times as well. Artest was solid during the regular season and spectacular in the last two games of the NBA Finals. I think another year in the triangle offense will help Artest add a win while the addition of Barnes will be good for two wins. Net wins - 3.
Power Forward
2009 - Pau Gasol (#1 PF, Level 1), Lamar Odom (#12 PF, Level 4)
2010 - Pau Gasol (#1 PF, Level 1), Lamar Odom (#12 PF, Level 4)
There's no other way to put it, Gasol was in elite company last year, dominating the power forward rankings and finishing fourth in the overall rankings. Odom was also excellent over the course of the season but suffered the usual bouts of inconsistency. I've got Gasol maintaining his high level of play with Odom dropping a win. Net losses - 1.
Center
2009 - Andrew Bynum (#4 C, Level 2)
2010 - Andrew Bynum (#4 C, Level 2), Theo Ratliff (#49 C, Level 8)
Injuries may prevent Bynum from ever reaching his full potential. He had his most healthy season in three years in '09-'10, still playing only 65 games, and was very productive. Ratliff is a nice add on as a low post defender. With injuries already affecting Bynum, I've got the Lakers losing two wins at the center position. Net losses - 2.
Overall
If they are healthy for the playoffs the Lakers are absolutely a threat to three-peat. But that may be a big if. I think this may be the year that all those extra playoff games really catch up to them. I think the Lakers would be well-served to utilize a similar rotation scheme to that used by the Celtics in the second half of last season - sitting their best players for long stretches even if it means taking a loss. I'm sure Phil Jackson is cooking up something right now.
The NBA champs put up a 57-25 regular season record in '09-'10. With the win differentials I mentioned above I've got them picking up three wins at small forward while losing two at center and shooting guard and one at point guard and power forward.
In the final verdict the Lakers are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I'll predict their record will be 54-28.
Do you expect more from the Lakers? Am I way off? Let me know your thoughts by posting a comment below.
Eastern Conference Projections Review
Now that I've finished my Eastern Conference previews here are my full projected standings:
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics 51-31
New York Knicks 40-42
Toronto Raptors 38-44
New Jersey Nets 28-54
Philadelphia 76ers 25-57
Southeast Division
Miami Heat 62-20
Orlando Magic 59-23
Atlanta Hawks 51-31
Charlotte Bobcats 40-42
Washington Wizards 31-51
Central Division
Chicago Bulls 50-32
Milwaukee Bucks 49-33
Indiana Pacers 35-47
Cleveland Cavaliers 31-51
Detroit Pistons 27-55
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics 51-31
New York Knicks 40-42
Toronto Raptors 38-44
New Jersey Nets 28-54
Philadelphia 76ers 25-57
Southeast Division
Miami Heat 62-20
Orlando Magic 59-23
Atlanta Hawks 51-31
Charlotte Bobcats 40-42
Washington Wizards 31-51
Central Division
Chicago Bulls 50-32
Milwaukee Bucks 49-33
Indiana Pacers 35-47
Cleveland Cavaliers 31-51
Detroit Pistons 27-55
Monday, October 11, 2010
Cleveland Cavaliers - Better or Worse
The walls came crashing down on the Cavs in July when LeBron James announced that he was leaving Cleveland for the city of sun and fun. After it finally set in that the best player in the game was not going to be coming back next season, the new management team tried to do what they could to fortify the team. By that point their options were extremely limited though because they had approached all prior roster changes with the expectation that LeBron would return. What will this season look like for the Cavaliers?
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
Point Guard
2009 - Mo Williams (#16 PG, Level 4), Daniel Gibson (#37 PG, Level 7)
2010 - Mo Williams (#16 PG, Level 4), Ramon Sessions (#49 PG, Level 9)
While he couldn't seem to hit baskets when they really mattered, Williams had a good regular season. Sessions was not properly used in Minnesota after playing quite well in Milwaukee.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Anthony Parker (#38 SG, Level 7), Delonte West (#21 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Anthony Parker (#38 SG, Level 7), Daniel Gibson (#37 PG, Level 7)
Parker shot well from three-point range and played good defense but was otherwise along for the ride last year. Mo Williams will likely get a good number of minutes at the two this season.
Small Forward
2009 - LeBron James (#1 SF, Level 1), Jamario Moon (#18 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Jamario Moon (#18 SF, Level 5), Joey Graham (#59 SG, Level 9)
There will clearly be a huge drop off in production at small forward for the Cavs this season. Moon's '09-'10 ranking is in large part due to his #4 Defensive Rating among small forwards, which was aided by the presence of LeBron.
Power Forward
2009 - Antawn Jamison (#24 PF, Level 5), Anderson Varejao (#7 PF, Level 2)
2010 - Antawn Jamison (#24 PF, Level 5), J.J. Hickson (#44 PF, Level 7)
Jamison was brought in as a key piece to help Cleveland get over the hump and win a title. He never seemed to fit into the offense. Hickson was excellent at some points and clueless at others. Neither played well as the Cavs ship was going down against the Celtics.
Center
2009 - Shaquille O'Neal (#21 C, Level 5), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (#46 C, Level 8)
2010 - Anderson Varejao (#7 PF, Level 2), Ryan Hollins (#55 C, Below level)
Shaq was a productive starter last year while Ilgauskas put in good minutes when healthy. Varejao needs to be just as steady at the five as he was at the four, but his game will suffer without LeBron. Hollins has had very little impact in four years in the NBA.
Overall
The Cavs are a tough team to judge. It's clear that they will take a big fall from last year but it's hard to quantify the number of victories that LeBron was worth. Worse for Cavs fans is that they have very little in the way of talented youth to build the team up with for the future - maybe Hickson and Sessions.
Cleveland finished the '09-'10 season with a 61-21 record. With their projected lineup I have them dropping 20 wins at small forward, four at power forward, two at point guard, two at center and two at shooting guard. Much of the drop I'm projecting in the four positions other than small forward is attributed to the "LeBron effect."
In the final verdict the Cavaliers are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I predict that they will finish the season at 31-51. That's probably high, but that's what I've got.
Let me know if you think my prediction is high or low by posting a comment below.
(Note: The rankings you see referenced below are fully explained in my initial NBA point guard rankings post)
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| Photo source: dfornal |
2009 - Mo Williams (#16 PG, Level 4), Daniel Gibson (#37 PG, Level 7)
2010 - Mo Williams (#16 PG, Level 4), Ramon Sessions (#49 PG, Level 9)
While he couldn't seem to hit baskets when they really mattered, Williams had a good regular season. Sessions was not properly used in Minnesota after playing quite well in Milwaukee.
Shooting Guard
2009 - Anthony Parker (#38 SG, Level 7), Delonte West (#21 SG, Level 5)
2010 - Anthony Parker (#38 SG, Level 7), Daniel Gibson (#37 PG, Level 7)
Parker shot well from three-point range and played good defense but was otherwise along for the ride last year. Mo Williams will likely get a good number of minutes at the two this season.
Small Forward
2009 - LeBron James (#1 SF, Level 1), Jamario Moon (#18 SF, Level 5)
2010 - Jamario Moon (#18 SF, Level 5), Joey Graham (#59 SG, Level 9)
There will clearly be a huge drop off in production at small forward for the Cavs this season. Moon's '09-'10 ranking is in large part due to his #4 Defensive Rating among small forwards, which was aided by the presence of LeBron.
Power Forward
2009 - Antawn Jamison (#24 PF, Level 5), Anderson Varejao (#7 PF, Level 2)
2010 - Antawn Jamison (#24 PF, Level 5), J.J. Hickson (#44 PF, Level 7)
Jamison was brought in as a key piece to help Cleveland get over the hump and win a title. He never seemed to fit into the offense. Hickson was excellent at some points and clueless at others. Neither played well as the Cavs ship was going down against the Celtics.
Center
2009 - Shaquille O'Neal (#21 C, Level 5), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (#46 C, Level 8)
2010 - Anderson Varejao (#7 PF, Level 2), Ryan Hollins (#55 C, Below level)
Shaq was a productive starter last year while Ilgauskas put in good minutes when healthy. Varejao needs to be just as steady at the five as he was at the four, but his game will suffer without LeBron. Hollins has had very little impact in four years in the NBA.
Overall
The Cavs are a tough team to judge. It's clear that they will take a big fall from last year but it's hard to quantify the number of victories that LeBron was worth. Worse for Cavs fans is that they have very little in the way of talented youth to build the team up with for the future - maybe Hickson and Sessions.
Cleveland finished the '09-'10 season with a 61-21 record. With their projected lineup I have them dropping 20 wins at small forward, four at power forward, two at point guard, two at center and two at shooting guard. Much of the drop I'm projecting in the four positions other than small forward is attributed to the "LeBron effect."
In the final verdict the Cavaliers are WORSE. As they are currently constructed I predict that they will finish the season at 31-51. That's probably high, but that's what I've got.
Let me know if you think my prediction is high or low by posting a comment below.
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